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Tuesday, November 23, 1999

With the 2000 elections less than a year away, both Republicans and Democrats appear to have contests on their hands for their respective presidential nominations. And while they want to win the White House back for the first time in eight years, Republicans are also concentrating their energies on keeping control of Congress.

Columnist and political analyst James Pinkerton brings a unique perspective to watching the race unfold. A former policy analyst and aide to presidents Reagan and Bush, Pinkerton also counseled the Bush-Quayle campaign in 1992. His Newsday column also appears in the Los Angeles Times, and he can be seen regularly as a political analyst for the Fox News Channel. Pinkerton talked about the 2000 elections and the political life on "Free Media" on Tuesday, Nov. 23. The transcript follows:

Free Media: Good afternoon, Jim, and welcome. You have a unique perspective on Republican politics. What do you think of the GOP presidential field this time around? Has anything in the turn of events up until now surprised you?

James Pinkerton: All the conventional wisdom about primogeniture in the Republican Party -- the first son inherits the kingdom -- is, in this case, quite wise. The GOP is deferential to hierarchy.

Once George W. Bush was re-elected in '98 so thumpingly, I figured he would be the frontrunner. A lot of GOPers feel that Bush Sr. got sort of a bad deal in '92. Another key issue was whether Bush could also carry with him the lieutenant governorship of Tx. And he did -- the first time ever for the GOP. Which means that should Bush ascend to the presidency, the state house in Austin would not revert to the Democrats. That meant that the Tx. GOP would be solidly behind him.

On the macro level, Bush's "compassionate conservative" was a brilliant rhetorical stroke -- at least as good as "kinder, gentler," which worked so well for his father in '88. Critics on the right and the left can quibble, but Bush has put enough substantive meat on the rhetorical bone -- faith based charitable choice, etc. -- that it makes prospective voters think that Bush is in fact more than a born-lucky fratboy.

So now, McCain's recent surge notwithstanding, Bush is the most eagerly awaited Republican presidential candidate since Tom Dewey in 1944.

Washington, D.C.: Do you think Republicans can pick up a substantial number of seats in Congress, or will the House margin get slimmer?

James Pinkerton: If I had to bet now, I'd probably wager that the Democrats will win back the House. Recall that in recent history -- 1960, 1988, and 1992, the party that won the White House lost 10-12 House seats in each of those elections. Since the House GOP is only up, what 5, that's ominous.

Plenty of centrist voters could well conclude that the Clinton Administration is a toilet that needs to be flushed (and so goodbye, Gore), but they might well have the same feeling about the Congressional Republican. (And so goodbye, Denny Hastert, whoever you are.)

The best hope for the House GOP is a big Bush landslide. And that might not happen.

Free Media: Your latest column deals with adult entertainment on the Internet and Adultex, the recent trade show in Las Vegas. It's no secret that adult sites are some of those making the most money on the Web. What did you learn about Internet business models from this trade show? Should the rest of us take a lesson?

James Pinkerton: Porn is huge, but still shrinking, in a relative, if not absolute sense.

My dominant feeling from Comdex was that Microsoft is in trouble, not only because of the DOJ and piratical trial lawyers, but because so many people really do loath the company. Linux is to Microsoft what the Counterculture was to the Establishment in the 60s -- the cool alternative. It has partisans who are willing to go to extraordinarily altruistic lengths to help Linux and hurt Windows. And in addition, a lot of the products went out of their way to advertise that they were web-based. The era of software, as we know it, is coming to an end.

I think also that interactivity is something of a delusion. Obviously chat rooms are fun, and will always appeal to savants of a given subject, but I think that when it comes to entertainment, people want to see and hear the story, not tell it themselves.

Even videogames, which get ever more impressive, technically, are still basically driven by the designer, and the platform. The player is secondary. Some of the games are so cool that they're fun to watch even without anybody playing them -- like a movie.

Clemson, S.C.: Yes Sir,
I was an avid Bush supporter until I slowly began to realize that he hasn't been involved in any debates -to my knowledge-. Why do you believe he has been avoiding these debates? I can't vote for someone who I haven't really heard debate the issues.

James Pinkerton: Bush's dodging the debates reminds of his father, who did the exact same thing in '87. He was finally mousetrapped into a debate on October 28 of that year, as I recall. And he did fine.

That's the silly thing about this. Bush Jr., who is slated to appear in NH on 12/2, will do fine. Experts'll probably say that Forbes beat him on forensics and that McCain won on passion and sincerity (not to mention Keyes, who is always the most entertaining), but Bush will "do what he had to do," as the pundits invariably say when the frontrunner emerges after a debate still front-running.

Having said that, I think that Bush is plenty engaged in the issues he really cares about -- mostly domestic. That speaks to his background in Texas and in business, and also, I suppose, to his memories of his father getting clobbered for seeming too cozy with foreign leaders.

Free Media : Conventional wisdom now seems to indicate that the choice of a running mate just doesn't matter to voters. Nonetheless, who do you think are good strategic choices for Gore? Bush? Bradley? McCain?

James Pinkerton: I think Gore, who I still think is the f.r. for the nomination, would have no choice but to offer it to Bradley, who might just be elliptical enough to turn it down.

Ditto Bush and McCain. Bush'll offer it, and hope he gets turned down.

Baltimore, Md.: What is it about politics that makes rich guys think they're qualified to be president? Ross Perot, Steve Forbes, Donald Trump -- I wouldn't trust these guys to be dog catcher. Why do the parties humor them? Name recognition?

James Pinkerton: I think the parties are so broken down nowadays that there's no such thing as "bosses" and "regulars" who control the process. Once upon a time, you had to be Irish to get anywhere in NYC politics. Now that's bossism.

Today, money and media matter more than say, ethnicity or party loyalty.

And that's what rich people can buy. I think fatcats have always wanted to be president, but because there was once a lot more class-warfare hostility to the Carnegies and Fricks of the world, plus strong parties, they never got far.

Now someone such as Trump, having climbed to the pinnacle of business, looks around for some new world to conquer. There's no system of sanctions anymore -- no Boss to tell him to get lost -- and so he figures "Why not?"

Chicago, Ill.: Would you ever have thought Bill Bradley would be running this strong?

James Pinkerton: No. I was never very impressed by him, good press notwithstanding. I think his strength is more a function of Gore's weakness.

New York, N.Y.: Political consulting is a huge business, but there are so many people who've gotten into it. What has happened to the larget-than-life consultant? Besides Carville, I mean. Even Ralph Reed's candidates lose once in a while.

James Pinkerton: I think it's like anything else in economics: more competition. The first people in the field became stars, but now, since the biz is so lucrative and so ego-enlarging, a lot of people are getting in, filling up the ranks of consultancies, and also filling up cable TV.

Miami, Fla.: Do you think that the Christian Right influence on the GOP is waning a bit?

James Pinkerton: Yes. Dramatically. Nothing like losing two straight elections to make you realize that you have to make the voters like you, and to do that, you need to put forward an attractive face. Bush is Clinton-like in his desire to win, and in the realization that only someone such as him can win.

Free Media: What's your take on Pat Buchanan's "I am not an isolationist" foreign policy speech?

James Pinkerton: What can I say, he IS an isolationist. I can deal with his contemporary geopolitical isolationism -- he at least has some interesting arguments about, for example, NATO expansion - but his historical stuff is terrible and his trade policies would be a catastrophe.

He should've quit while he was ahead -- after '96.

Washington, D.C.: Did you have a lot of contact with George W. Bush when you were working in the Bush White House? What was-is your impression of him?

James Pinkerton: I had some in the WH from '89 to '92, but more in the Bush campaigns of '87-8 and then again in '92.

I thought he was a very nice guy. Thoughtful, hardworking, team-playing, and very loyal to his father -- even though he could see the mistakes being made. He struck me then as more interested in business than in politics, but of course, I can remember that he was working on his Spanish back then, listening to tapes...

Shanghai, China: Which party will win the campaign [in 2000]? Please show me your views.

James Pinkerton: The normal pattern in presidential politics is 8 years and out. After just a single term, the party in the WH can say, "We need more time to finish the job." But after two terms, the political toxins accumulate, an the "time for a change" argument usually persuades. I worked for Bush Sr. in '88 when he broke the "Van Buren Curse" (the first sitting vp elected to the presidency since 1836), so I know that "iron laws" can be broken. But I think that this iron law, while not unbreakable, is nonetheless likely to be dispositive. Like most vp's, Al Gore has shrunk in office.

Atlanta, Ga.: Being so involved with politics, what do you believe are the neccessary characteristics of a strong president. Then, after answering that, how do you believe the candidates match up to your criteria?

James Pinkerton: I think honesty and a sense of direction are important. Especially on domestic affairs, there's not much the president can do without the Congress. So if he or she is going to be effective, there has to be some trust. And a sense of direction -- once again, honestly communicated to the voters -- will give him/her a mandate for leadership overseas.

I think Gore is probably honest enough, in the strictly personal but he has been thoroughly corrupted by this Administration. As for sense of direction, he clearly has one, especially on the environment, which I do think is going to be a huge issue in the next century.

As for Bradley, he's still a cipher to me. I think as time goes by he'll look like more of a regular politician, which is to say, average on honesty and direction.

As for Bush, he's probably in that same middle range.

As for McCain, he's clearly honest, and also has a sense of direction, but in his case, I will add another variable of measure that I think he needs to address: does he have the sense of politics -- it is something of an art -- that would make him effective once in office? I'm not so sure. I'd hate to think that we could get another Jimmy Carter - self-righteous and impenetrable -- in the Oval Office.

Washington, D.C.: Jim -- When do you think, if ever, the "moderates" or "centrists" in the Republican Party will ever unify and take back control of the party from the fringe elements?

James Pinkerton: I think that the moderates are in the process of winning the party back. And if Bush wins and the House GOP loses -- although it has been substantially de-Gingrichified in the last 6 months -- that process will be complete.

Bethesda, Md.: I am a proud right-wing young conservative Republican. I also happen to be gay. Which Republican candidate do you believe to be most interested in advancing the gay agenda?

James Pinkerton: Good for you. A local political hero of mine is David Catania, the gay Republican who miraculously got himself elected to the DC city council and who even more miraculously managed to enact a big tax cut for DC.

I suppose that McCain has made the most friendly overtures to the Log Cabin Republicans. But I think that Bush would also provide gay GOPers with what they really need: the right to be left alone, the right to make their way in the world unhampered by homophobic zealots and also by governmentophilic bureaucrats. I'm a fan of Rich Tafel's, but the real goal should be that there are just Republicans, and conservatives and libertarians, and that's what defines you politically. Everything else oughtta be private.

Free Media: That was our last question today for columnist and political analyst James Pinkerton. Thanks to Jim, and thanks to everyone who participated. Join us this afternoon on "Free Media" to talk about the budget. Linda Ricci, the OMB's associate director of communications, will be online at to talk about the White House position. At 3:30 p.m. EST, Senate Budget Committee Chairman Pete Domenici (R-N.M.) will join us to talk about the Republican side.

Free Media: The Ricci discussion is at 2:30 p.m. EST.

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