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With such tight margins in the Senate and House the 2002 midterm elections will have a major impact on both politics and policy. How did the parties handle their strategies in the midst of impending war on Iraq and the ongoing war on terrorism? How much did money reign supreme? How did two last-minute replacements on the ballot in Minnesota and New Jersey affect voters' feelings, much less turnout at the polls?

University of Virginia political analyst Larry J. Sabato was online to discuss the 2002 election and politics in general.

Dr. Sabato is the Director of the University of Virginia's Center for Politics, an interdisciplinary, nonpartisan, nonprofit organization that promotes the value of politics and seeks to improve civics education. He is also the Robert Kent Gooch Professor of Politics and University Professor of Politics at the University of Virginia.

The transcript follows.

Editor's Note: Washingtonpost.com moderators retain editorial control over Live Online discussions and choose the most relevant questions for guests and hosts; guests and hosts can decline to answer questions.

Larry J. Sabato: Welcome, fellow election junkies! I want to warn you all that I have yet to go to sleep, and thus my mind is even more clouded than usual and the analysis will be foggier--that may make it better, or worse! I hope you all had as much fun as i did on this historic election night and the morning after.

Burlington, Vt.: Of all the losers in yesterday's election, is there anyone who fared worse than Jim Jeffords? It now seems that he stabbed his lifelong party in the back for a scant two years in the majority, and now the Republicans must be looking forward to some payback. Thoughts?

Larry J. Sabato: Payback with a capital "P." Senator Jeffords may have a lot of seniority, but my guess is he's going to be treated as Senator number 100. The GOP elected a governor in Vermont, so those in the Green Mountain State who want anything from Washington may have to rout their requests through the statehouse! (P.S. the legislature must ratify Jim Douglas as the governor)

Chamber Hill, Pa.: Professor, do you think Saxby Chambliss' national security ads against Senator Cleland were unfair? Should a wartime injury, even one as severe as Cleland suffered, innoculate a candidate against attacks on their defense/national security positions?

Larry J. Sabato: No, a senator's votes are always fair game for discussion in a reasonable way during a campaign. I think Chambliss' attack would have been even more effective had he acknowledged Cleland's personal sacrafices in the ad.

Arlington, Va.: I'm most curious about Steve Largent's loss for Governor of Oklahoma. It seems that a third party candidate got 14 percent of the vote and allowed the Democrat to win. What issues did Richardson, the 14 percent candidate have, that assured Largent's loss since the guy was an ex-Republican?

Larry J. Sabato: Richardson spent enough money and touched enough reform chords to pick up a substantial vote among disaffected Oklahomans. That cost Largent the governorship, along with his own overconfidence and even a touch of arrogance, detected by many in the Sooner State.

Midlothian, Va.: What is your preliminary read on African-American turn-out and its effect on the election results?

Larry J. Sabato: African-American turnout saved governor Siegelman in Alabama, but was relatively modest in Georgia and florida, among other states. But, let's keep in mind that African-Americans gave 80-90% of their votes to Democrats. They were not the reason Dems lost; rather, Democrats were once again unable to tin even 40% of the white vote in many states and districts, and incredibly, in many places, white men voted Republican by 2 to 1. (See MD GOV!)

Richmond, Va.: Who controls the lame duck session? Will Dems give up control? If they don't, will the GOP punish them when they take over in January?

Larry J. Sabato: This is undetermined. Frankly, I wonder if the Republicans will even want control in the lame duck session. The history of lame dck sessions is a miserable one, and the most the parties can hope for is to get some of the appropriations bills passed and perhaps a couple of homeland security bills sent to the White House as well. The GOP would only clearly benefit in the nominatiuon arena, and that can probably wait just as well for January.

Fairfax, Va.: OK. Will these election results cause the Democrats to seriously assess their shortcomings? I.e., Will they change leaders and finally risk taking a stand for something?

Larry J. Sabato: Boy, have you got it right! I follow politics very closely, and I simply cannot tell you exactly what the Democrats were offering as an alternative in this election. The House will have new leadership very quickly, and the new Democratic governors may also prove to be a rallying point for Dems. It is a little tougher to blame Tom Daschle, because running the Senate is merely herding cats.

Washington, D.C.: So what was the biggest shocker? Even to you?

Larry J. Sabato: That's easy. Not a single Georgia non-partisan analyist had suggested that Roy Barnes would be defeated as Georgia governor. That was amazing--and the GOP also picked up a Senate seat, 2 unexpected House seats, and nearly won a third seat in the Peach State. Georgia Democratic redistricters outsmarted themselves again.

Bethesda, Md: Speaking of the Maryland Governor -- what happened to Kathleen Kennedy Townsend? Why do you think she lost the election?

Larry J. Sabato: We have all read a great deal about Kathleen's shortcomings as a candidate. I would add to that the deep, abiding unpopularity of Governor Parris Glendening. KKT can legitimately point to the sad spectacle of Glendening ditching his marvelous First Lady for a young staffer that he quickly promoted through the ranks, as the beginning of the end for her candidacy. Oh, did I mention the "miracle baby?"

Bull Run, Va.: Professor Sabato, Mark Warner's successful campaign for Governor here in Virginia was hailed as a model for Democrats running this year. Did you see evidence that Democratic candidates ran a Warner-style campaign?

Larry J. Sabato: Look to the governor's race in Tennessee, where Phil Bredesen won a narrow victory in the state that turned it's back on a favorite son in 2000 for president. That's the best successful example.

Wheaton, Md.: With the large scale victory of the Republicans, doesn't this imply that the public not only supports, but demands strong action against Saddam Hussien and other international terrorists? The enemies of the USA must be very scared right now.

Larry J. Sabato: If Bush doesn't have a "blank check" on Iraq now, he has something very close to it. Who knows, these elections may have some impact on the key actors in the Middle East.

Manassas, Va.: How badly does losing the transportation referendums hurt Virginia Governor Mark Warner's clout? Will it be the General Assembly calling the shots on Virginia's next round of budget cuts, with revenue enhancement off the table?

Larry J. Sabato: I don't think the Republican legislature will be raising any taxes anytime soon. The two tax referenda--both defeated in landslides--were a disaster for Mark Warner, and it would be impossible to contend otherwise. Having said that, remember that any governor has substantial advantages over a legislature. He can act quickly, and he has wide lattitude in his actions for the nine months out of the year when the legislature is not in session.

Harrisburg, Pa.: How does the Democratic Party recover? There is little reason for special interests to contribute to a political party that does not control the White House, the Senate, the Congress-indeed, not even the courts. The Republicans already had a fund raising advantage, and now it will have a tremendous advantage. How do Democrats effectively compete?

Larry J. Sabato: May I add that the McCain-Feingold law--overwhelmingly supported by Democrats--further damages Democratic prospects (the doubling of individual contribution limit, the soft money ban, etc.). However, money is not the alpha and the omega of politics. If there is strong dissatisfaction with the direction of the country in 2004, all the money in the world could not stop the Democrats from winning. But as the "out party" the Dems are at the mercy of events.

Alexandria, Va.: Who was the biggest loser last night?

Larry J. Sabato: There's a lot of competition for that title! I would probably go along with many and nominate Dick Gephardt. How do you run for president after losing the House in 1996, 1998, 2000, and 2002? Will Democrats be willing to reward that kind of electoral record?

Richmond, Va.: Wouldn't a lot of pundits have been better off using the results of your Youth Leadership Initiative voting instead of their own predictions? I was surprised at the number of GOP winners in your middle school/high school voting project.

Larry J. Sabato: We here at the UVA Center for Politics are very proud of the Youth Leadership Initiative and the hundreds of thousands of young people throughout the country who are participating in its programs, including the Internet Mock Election. Yes, the YLI Mock Election was surprisingly accurate in many ways. If I may be permitted to say so, the Center's "Crystal Ball" (www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball) also had a successful maiden voyage! Unlike many other analysts Republican gains in the House since Labor Day, and ended up at +4 GOP in the House--almost exactly what the final results will show.

Chicago, Ill.: If you could quantify the impact the partisan Wellstone memorial/rally had on the Minn. Senate race, what would it be? Did it give Coleman a couple of percentage points? Did it increase voter turnout? Did it cost Mondale the election, or help him? Or no effect on the outcome of the race? Thanks.

Larry J. Sabato: I would stake my reputation on the assertion that the "memorial pep rally" produced a Republican sweep in Minnesota--Coleman, Pawlenty, and even Kline over Luther. I watched the entire event, and it would be my nominee for the absolute dumbest political move in at least a decade. I will be surprised if Democrats do not clean house in their Minnesota organization.

Lyme, Conn.: Is the Kennedy mystique now over?

Larry J. Sabato: The mystique has been threadbare for some time, and now the cloth will have to be recycled.

Fairfax County, Va.: Which Democrats (if any) got a boost for their 2004 presidential bids last night? Are the nascent campaigns of Daschle, Gephardt et al. dead?

Larry J. Sabato: I'm not sure any Democrat got a boost from last night's disasters. It may well be that Democrats start looking elsewhere for presidential candidates, that is beyond the current crop and beyond the Congressional cadre entirely. The non-leadership senators (Edwards, Kerry, etc.) may have escaped serious damage, although that ignores Dole's vistory in Edwards' North Carolina and Romney's triumph in Kerry's Massachusetts. Maybe the Democtas should take out a want-ad in major newspapers.

Arlington, Va.: Will Thune ask for a re-count? The margin seems so thin that it would be insane not to. Will he allege fraud? I know there were problems on the Indian reservations, but taking this to court may be too much Al Gore rather than John Thune style. When does he have to decide on both questions?

Larry J. Sabato: As I understand it, the margin is so close that a recount is automatic. Thune should be cautious here. If Daschle chooses not to seek reelection in 2004--a real possibility--Thune could be a heavy favorite for that seat. Two years of private life is not such a bad fate!

Northbrook, Ill.: Now that Republicans have control of the Senate and therefore have control of judicial nominations, is it now more likely that one or more of the older conservative Supreme Court justices will announce their retirement next year?

Larry J. Sabato: Exactly what I thought and said last night. But who can read the minds of powerful jurists who can choose to go on forever?

Washington, D.C.: I know this is complicated, but how do the Bush people spin the loss of the rust-belt governor's races when they have been so focused on the importance of GOP governors since at least 1999? One alternative, obviously, is to tout the wins in the federal elections, but doesn't this run the risk of upsetting the state's rights advocates?

Larry J. Sabato: Democrats can be very proud of their new gubernatorial prowess. But, a lot of this is just the cycle of party change. It was overdue in Illinois and Wisconsin, and right on schedule in Michigan and Pennsylvania. Example: since World War II, Pennsylvania has changed statehouse parties every eight years, without exception.

London, England: Hi Larry

What constitutes a mandate in U.S. politics? I always thought if you stand for office, propose policies and win, that's a mandate. Yet a few hacks at the White House press corps today seemed to question that principle. Given that many Dems won after vocally supporting many of Bush's policies, doesn't the President have quite a strong mandate to push things through?

Larry J. Sabato: The president may well have secured the mandate that eluded him in 2000, when he lost the popular vote and the GOP shed seats in both the Senate and the House. 2002 may not have been 1994 all over again, but in some respects it was a reasonable imitation and President Bush may well be at the peak of his power.

Alexandra, Va.: Why, oh why, did the Virginia Democrats not find -anybody- to run against John Warner? He's not the typical Republican fascist-gun maniac, but shouldn't the party have taken any possible opportunity to retain the Senate?

Larry J. Sabato: Quite frankly, I can't think of a Democrat who could have given John Warner a competitve race. It would have been a sinkhole for the Democrats' money and volunteers for no gain. Having said that, I believe that both parties have an obligation to provide people with a choice at every election.

Brandermill, Va.: Can you name some losing candidates who might still have a future? For example, is Bill McBride viable in 2006? Jeb Bush lost for Governor his first time out.

Larry J. Sabato: Bill McBride disappointed me, and he scored an unimpressive percentage. Jeb Bush, remember, almost won in his first attempt in 1994. Look to some of the House candidates who came very close to victory last night, to run again. John Thune (R) clearly has a future, as does Stephanie Herseth (D)--both from South Dakota.

Larry J. Sabato: Whether you are happy or sad about the results, you can be delighted that the American people once again proved that they are in charge--not the pollsters or the pundits or the Washington media elites. Wasn't it wonderful to see so many faces on television struggling to explain the unexpected? Yet another glory of democracy!

We will be chewing over this election for months, and the Center for Politics will be publishing a book on it, entitle "Midterm Madness" to be released in February 2003.

Thanks to all and tonight, let's get some sleep!

Larry J. Sabato
www.centerforpolitics.org

washingtonpost.com:

That wraps up today's show. Thanks to everyone who joined the discussion.

Stay tuned to Live Online:

Election 2002: Maryland Results at 3 p.m. ET
Election 2002: MSNBC's Bill Press at 4:30 p.m. ET

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