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America At War:
Latest Developments
With Karl Vick
Washington Post Foreign Service
Friday, Oct. 26, 2001; 11 a.m. EDT
As the U.S. and coalition forces continue military strikes in Afghanistan, the military prepares for the next step which could involve ground troops. Meanwhile, homeland defense is on many minds as reports of anthrax exposure at several high profile targets -- NBC and ABC News, The New York Times and Senate Majority Leader Tom Daschle's office -- has many Americans concerned for their health. And the anthrax scare has moved worldwide as letters rumored to contain anthrax turned up in Kenya and Brazil.
Karl Vick, The Washington Post's Africa correspondent, was online Friday, Oct. 26 to talk about the scare in Kenya and how the war on terrorism is viewed from Africa.
The transcript follows.
Based in Nairobi, Kenya, Vick covers issues and events in eastern Africa, from the environment to politics.
Editor's Note: Washingtonpost.com moderators retain editorial control
over Live Online discussions and choose the most relevant questions for guests and hosts; guests and hosts can decline to answer questions.
Bowie, Md.:
Karl, some news media claim that Somalia is a country were Bin Laden associates have been operating. Claims that Mohammed Atta and other operatives have been in and out of Somalia have been broadcast, as well as Bin Laden's claim that they helped orchestrate the attack on the U.S. rangers in Somalia in 1993.
Don't you think this is purely circumstancial evidence and boasting? Do you really think Al-Qaeda was involved there, and if so, do you think the U.S. might enter Somalia under that pretext?
Karl Vick: I don't think there's a whole lot of doubters any more on this one. The group in question is called Al-Ittihad al-Islami, operating in the chronically chaotic southern sections of a nation that has been without a central government for more than ten years. (And without an effective government of any kind for longer than that: the so-called TNG, or Transitional National Government, formed a year or so ago but has had trouble asserting its authority even in the capital city of Mogadishu.)
Neighboring Ethiopia was asserting just last week at the UN that Al-Ittihad has links with Al Qaeda, and that because it had reprensentatives at the broad-based representative convention that brought about the TNG, the TNG should be regarded as harboring Islamic extremists. That charge doesn't go very far with others, but it's a label that the government's critics were flinging around long before Sept. 11, so you can't accuse them of being trendy.
There was a good deal of testimony presented at the embassy bombing trials in NYC earlier this year that the bin Laden cell behind the Nairobi and Dar es Salaam plot were shuttling in and out of Somalia during the 1990s. Often their stated reason was to train and support militias there. It's also believed that the TNT that blew up the Nairobi embassy came through Somalia, which has a long and notoriously open coastline (and one of the plotters had a good-sized boat purchased by a bin Laden aide).
As far as the attack on the Rangers and Delta force commandos in Mog, yes, the boast is made. It seems to be accepted by many U.S. investigators, though there are some leading lights who continue to dispute it. Certainly there were plenty of guns in that city and more than enough anti-American feelings among the people holding them that it all could well have happened without Afghan Arabs leading the way.
Mt. Lebanon, Pa.:
Are all of the countries in eastern Africa a Muslim enclave or is there one or two where the root of Islam didn't plant successfully? Does western Africa possess the same Islamic majorities? My only African experiences are brief port visits in Morocco and Egypt with the U.S. Navy in the mid-1970s. Thanks much.
Karl Vick: Actually, while several countries in West Africa are majority Muslim, converted by Arab traders crossing the Sahara eons ago, most of East Africa is majority Christian, with the exceptions of Somalia -- where everyone's Somali, and everyone's Muslim -- and Sudan, where the Muslim majority rules. The Muslim populations otherwise are found along the Indian Ocean "Swahili" coastlines of Kenya and Tanzania, where Arabs brought their religions with them when they rode the trade winds down more than half a millenium ago. Though there are mosques in Uganda and Rwanda, too.
That said, Ethiopia, with a population of 60 million or so, has a very large Muslim population, and tries mightily to control its political aspirations. In fact, one reason it was caught unprepared militarily when the border problems with Eritra began in 1998 was that it had come to the conclusion privately that the major threat it faced was Islamic extremism.
Up to now, the minorities in Tanzania and Kenya have not been extremist. But there have been pro-Osama marches in Mombasa, so maybe that's changing. When bin Laden moved to Sudan in the early 1990s, he did tell the Afghan Arab vets who came with him that one reason to make that a base is that there were neighboring countries where they could foment rebellion.
Annandale, Va.:
Mr. Vick,
What does the non-muslim man in the street (at least in Nairobi) say about the U.S.-British attacks on Afghanistan? Do they see a poor nation oppressed by colonial powers as they once were or do they see it as just desserts for the killing of over 200 Kenyans in 1998?
Karl Vick: I haven't sampled opinion recently -- I spent most of the last month in Yemen, then in Cairo -- but I'd be surprised if people in Kenya were very critical of the US attacks. Identification with the US is pretty much the norm here; it's a distinctly West-leaning country, both culturally and politically. And I never seem to hear the words "colonial legacy" from people here. There is one, a legacy, and it has its bad influence, especially on the self-confidence of people. But by and large people here tend to blame their current government for their many problems, as they probably should.
And yes, they do know the consequences of terrorism. Only too well.
Pentagon City, Va.:
Why has Kenya been targeted by the terrorists?
Karl Vick: If you mean the embassy bombing, testimony at the trial indicated the reasons were several: The US embassy here was vulnerable, being right downtown on the street and not set back 100 feet or more in a compound as the Inman rules dictate. Also, grotesquely enough, the ambassador here at the time, Prudence Bushnell, was female and therefore her death was likely to make the bombing more newsworthy, one plotter said. (Bushnell survived, of course, with only a few cuts on her face.)
Also, Kenya is no friend to the Muslim world. Longtime President Daniel arap Moi's private distrust of political Islam is documented in Smith Hempstone's book, "Rogue Ambassador" and elsewhere, including the record: When Israel needed to refuel its C-130s after freeing the hostages from (Muslim) Idi Amin's Uganda in the famed "Raid on Entebbe," they refueled in Nairobi. A favor for which Kenya paid a yea r or two later when a famous hotel in Nairobi, the Norfolk, was shredded by a terrorist bomb. Not by accident, then, did Israel promptly dispatch its search and rescue team to Nairobi when the embassy was bombed in 1998.
If you're talking about anthrax, however, I don't think Kenya in fact has been targeted. The letter that a government lab called positive for the spores last week was tested this week by the CDC. That test found it negative. Given that the Kenya lab has a plaque at its front door commemorating its discovery of an AIDS "cure," my money's on the CDC.
Falls Church, Va.:
Regarding the civil war in Sudan, has there been any progress with the U.S. envoy in mediating a settlement between the two warring factions? Have the southern towns and hospitals continued to be bombed? Have the slave raiders continued unabated?
Karl Vick: Little progress, if any, I'm told. The staff of the newly appointed US envoy, former Sen. Jack Danforth, has expressed frustration over this, but there's nothing to blame but the pre-occupations that consume everyone since Sept. 11. I do believe the State Dept. dispatched an advance team to Khartoum recently, however, to prepare the way for a visit. So we may we may see some movement soon.
Meanwhile, yes, the war continues unabated. As do the bombings. And the raids, though to a considerably lesser extent than a few years ago. The southern rebels have made protecting the border areas a priority in the last year or so, and as a result the slave raiders have been generally thwarted, though many of the people they took captive in earlier raids remain unaccounted for.
Arlington, Va.:
Regarding Somalia, do you see the U.S. doing anything proactive to stem that nation from going the way of Afghanistan (i.e. Lawless and unintentionally harboring extremists)?
After the Somali aid operation resulted in military casulties, it seems like the U.S. has turned its back on Somalia. Do you believe the U.S. will increase intelligence missions in Somalia soon, or will they wait until the last minute and have to resort to military operations?
Karl Vick: If there's new *political* attention to Somalia in Washington, I haven't heard about it. Obviously the country and its borders are being watched more closely than ever, but I can't imagine there's any fresh appetite for engagement there.
As someone at the UN who worked closely with Somalia for years told me a while ago: "The problem with Somalis is they don't understand nobody gives a [rip] about them any more."
Somalia continues to put the lie to the trusim that the problem with Africa is that colonialists formed nations arbitrarily, forcing disparate ethnic groups and tribes together into nation states defined by nothing more than lines on a map. Everyone in Somalia speaks the same language, worships the same god and shares the same culture. And it's the biggest mess on the continent.
Greenbelt, Md.:
Despite the U.S. bombing and ground incursions, the Taliban appears to hold on in Afghanistan, mainly because the Afghan people do not seem to have any clues about which alternative governments they might want after the Taliban goes. Perhaps the U.S. should have waited and prepared the ground politically, diplomatically, economically, PR-wise etc... before it goes into Afghanistan. This is understandably hard to do given the type of leaders we have, but it would have been the wiser course. The attacks of Sept. 11 took years to prepare so an effective response also should take time.
What do you think?
Karl Vick: I think you've got a really good point. But it does kind of ignore the domestic political reality the US government faced: Namely, to deliver some kind of visible response to Sept. 11.
I'm thousands of miles away, but even from that distance sensed that Americans craved a response that was more smart than prompt. Whatever visceral satisfactions were provided by the August 1998 cruise missile attacks in response to the embassy bombings, everyone seemed to understand right quick that they didn't accomplish much of anything, and in the controversial case of the hit on the El Shifa pharmaceutical plan in Khartoum probably hurt US credibility.
But even given the new public patience, can you imagine what the atmosphere would be if we were six, seven weeks out from WTC/Pentagon and there'd been no overt US action? Look at how W. got fried just for zig-zagging Air Force One a bit while the attacks were still going on...
Washington, D.C.:
Have there been any concrete changes in the U.S. relationship with Sudan recently, or is it so far just a matter of muting criticism over the conduct of their civil war?
Karl Vick: Concrete? Not really. The closest thing to concrete was the US abstaining on the Security Council vote to remove UN sanctions placed on Sudan when it gave succor to the guys who tried to assassinate Egyptian president Hosni Mubarek in Addis Ababa. My understanding was the US was, at most, going to ask for a delay in that vote, and at best abstain, before Sept. 11. By volunteering its intelligence on bin Laden and company, the vote went forward and the sanctions lifted. The US's own embargo on the regime remains in place, however.
I don't believe the US has in fact muted its criticism of Khartoum's behavior in the war, however. The State Department specifically criticized Sudan's continued bombing at a briefly after the UN vote, and pointed out it hasn't been bought off by Sudan's cooperation on intelligence.
Bergen, Norway:
I've noted that Somalia has asked for help in order to prevent Bin Laden and Co. from
establishing there after Afghanistan.
Given the chaotic current situation there and the fact that Somalia has a long coastline, there could be a real danger.
What is the U.S. going to do about that? One should at least monitor the coastline for
them and give proper warning if necessary.
Thank You!
Karl Vick: Yes, the transitional government in Mogadishu did raise that spectre while asking for donor funds. There's the small matter, however, of getting Osama into a boat from a landlocked country, Afghanistan.
If he came, I'd assume it'd be more likely to be by air, and it's a lot easier to monitor planes taking off from Afghanistan or any friendly airports nearby than the sea lanes off Somalia's long coasts.
Alexandria, Va.:
I was shocked recently to see footage of non-African-looking Muslims in Capetown, South Africa marching in support of Al Qaeda, brandishing posters of Bin Laden, and confronting African-looking South African troops.
Who were these Islamicists in South Africa, and are they a threat to America or to their non-Muslim neighbors?
Some of them were announcing that they were going to travel to Afghanistan and fight for Bin Laden against the U.S.
Karl Vick: Covered some of this in an earlier question, but as far as Capetown, yes, that gorgeous port has been something of a hotbed of radical Islam, with a string of bombings a couple of years ago of a distinctily terroristic bent. One, I believe, hit a Planet Hollywood.
The city has its Muslim minority; on my only trip there I stayed in the Muslim quarter, a scenic section near downtown with a view of the city. I'm out of my depth accounting for its history, though; my impression was its origins extend to Malayasia via the sea lanes.
Worth noting that the only suspect to stand trial for the Tanzania half of the East Africa embassy bombings, one K.K. Mohammed, was arrested in Capetown. He moved there and found a job at a burger joint after the bombings.
Arlington, Va.:
I am somewhat disheartened to see you state:
"Somalia continues to put the lie to the trusim that the problem with Africa is that colonialists formed nations arbitrarily, forcing disparate ethnic groups and tribes together into nation states defined by nothing more than lines on a map."
Somalia has many sub-clans that are still fighting today due to the clan-baiting tactics of the previous regime of Siad Barre (who was backed by the U.S. and USSR at times). You can't assert that what ails Somalia is only the Somalis when Barre was backed by the U.S. and USSR. That has to be put in context.
Karl Vick: You are correct. But the lie is put all the same.
Brookfield, Wis.:
As the war against the Taliban continues, how has the response by the Muslim community evolved in Kenya? Has there been any agression towards Americans or Brits? As someone planning to travel in the area later this year with my famliy, I am very concerned about the potential risks.
Karl Vick: Hail, fellow cheese-stater, and come on ahead. As I say I've been out of Kenya most of the last month, but have heard of no aggression toward Brits or 'mericans. Kenya is, as Kenyans love to say, a peace-loving nation. And though there has been at least one demonstration in Mombasa, down on the coast, against the US military campaign and in favor of bin Laden, it's not like the place is any kind of hothouse of anti-American or anti-Western feeling.
On the contrary, it's powerfully hospitable to tourists, especially as they've grown scarcer in the weeks since the NY and Pentagon attacks. Even if there are a few people hacked off over Afghanistan, the odds of running into them are remote. Remoter still are the chances of them even saying anything about it.
I was just in Egypt for two weeks -- which is really sucking wind on tourism itself -- and had to go looking for such sentiments. I found 'em, but the point is I had to look.
Washington, D.C.:
Do you think the U.S. war on terrorism will result in any increased efforts against African terrorist groups not connected with Osama bin Laden or other Middle Eastern groups -- for example, Jonas Savimbi's UNITA in Angola?
Karl Vick: Not unless UNITA starts parking car bombs outside US embassies. I suspect it's just too slippery a slope to start defining the nastiness of assorted militias and rebel armies around the globe as "terrorist," even if you're the world's policeman.
That's all we've time for this round. Many thanks, and do pop over and see what the Frontline guy has got to say in the parallel universe. Their website is fine resource on Osama and those who follow his antics...
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