Vernon Loeb

washingtonpost.com: Welcome to our monthly national security discussion with the Post's Vernon Loeb. Thanks for joining us once again Vernon. As you mentioned in your latest Back Channels column, there are many unanswered questions surrounding the El Shifa bombing. Can you make any predictions about the outcome of any type of investigation into the attack?

Vernon Loeb: Welcome all. Before I respond to the question about the El Shifa investigation, let me throw out several other intelligence-related topics that people may be interesting in discussing today:
1. The on-going controversy, in Congress and in the European Parliment, regarding the NSA's echelon program.
2. The Clinton administration's initiative to declassify documents relating to Chile from 1968-1990, and the allegation that the CIA has not fully responded.
Now, as for the El Shifa investigation, I think the matter as a political controversy has all but run its course. Both the House and Senate intelligence committee staffs are still probing the matter, but the committee members seem willing to accept CIA Director George Tenet's stand that the government acted on a compelling collection of circumstantial evidence and was correct in strking the plant, even if subsequent information indicates that it probably wasn't a nerve gas factory after all.

Herndon, VA: Mr. Loeb: With the increasing "sophisticated" weapons available to terrorist organizations, do you find it surprising the US has not had more incidents similar to the World Trade Center bombing in NYC?

Vernon Loeb: You know, I do find that suprising, especially given the threat rhetoric coming out of Washington these days from the counterterrorism forces. That is not to minimize the terrorist threat. But the absence of attacks in the U.S. says to me that either the threat is overstated, or U.S. intelligence/law enforcement is effective is neutralizing the threat, or both. As a general matter, I don't think most U.S. citizens have any clue about the massive FBI counterterrorism machine arrayed nationally and internationally against the terrorist threat.

Tulsa county: Speak to the problem of information and how these terrorist organizations get the information is it e-mail, carrier pidgeon or what? Do you see a big buildup for the year 2000?

Vernon Loeb: There is certainly a lot of hacking going on, and a lot of attention being paid by our government to both cyber security and cyber warfare_U.S. government hacking, if you will. How much of the hacking is being done by terrorists isn't at all clear. I've yet to see a single credible report on a cyberattack against the U.S. government by a known terrorist organization.

Washington, DC:
What actions should this government take to protect its citizens since there is such a decline in interest in national security?

Vernon Loeb: I would quibble with your assertion that there's a decline of interest about national security, at least on the part of the government. The Clinton administration is spending something like $10 billion this year on counterterrorism, and intelligence funding is thought to be around $29 billion, given sizeable increases in the last few years. So I think the government is spending a lot of time and money trying to protect its citizens against terrorism and all sorts of other national security threats_nuclear proliferation, drug trafficking, foreign spies, etc.

Hyattsville, MD: What is the most realistic spy novel you've read?

Vernon Loeb: Without a doubt, Agents of Innocence, by my colleague here at The Post, David Ignatius. It is a fictionalized version of the spy career of Robert Ames, a legendary CIA officer in the Middle East. It is a superb book. The CIA considers it so insightful that, I'm told, they use it as a textbook at "The Farm" outside Williamsburg, where they train new case officers.

washingtonpost.com: We're about half-way through our live discussion with the Post's Vernon Loeb. Please continue to submit questions.

washingtonpost.com: Can you talk a little more about the Echelon program? What are the privacy concerns for U.S. citizens and those raised by the European Union?

Vernon Loeb: Ah, Echelon. This has become quite the controversy in Europe, and increasingly here in the U.S. For those who haven't heard of Echelon, it is basically a tasking and dissemination system used by the National Security Agency and its partners in Britain, Canada, Australia and New Zealand for intercepting all manner of electronic communications around the world, running the data stream through so-called dictionary computers that search for key words, and sharing the final product the computers produce. The main concern in Europe is that the NSA is intercepting trade secrets of European companies and sharing them with their American competitors. The main concern in the U.S. is that the NSA is indiscriminately violating Americans' privacy. Both are legitimate areas of concern and inquiry, and I think the upcoming Congressional hearings will be good. But I somewhat skeptical about both concerns. As a general rule, I do not think the NSA, CIA or other U.S. intelligence agencies are spying on behalf of U.S. companies. And I have been told, by current and former intelligence officials, that the NSA is scrupulous in the way it follows legal restrictions governing its practices whenever the communications of Americans are incidentially intercepted. If anyone cares to hear more about those restrictions, I'd be glad to go into them in greater depth. But again, this is something that Congress intends to look into early next year, and the scrutiny is overdue.

Washington DC: I agree with the person who asked why we haven't been hit with more terrorists acts. The question remains, if we are hit,are we prepared? Americans seem rather lacks about threats of terrorism; which is pretty amazing given the recent chain of events regaroing mysterious airplane failures. What do you think?.

Vernon Loeb: Terrorist attacks, almost by definition, are hard to prepare for. If a terrorist detonated a bomb in Metro Center, would we be prepared? Probably not. Probably a lot of people would get killed. But the reasons that hasn't happened are many and complex: for starters, detonating a bomb in Washington wouldn't be an easy proposition, given the forces_FBI, police, CIA, customs, military_arrayed against terrorists around the world. Scarier propositions, of course, involve possible chemical, biological or nuclear attacks, which are far harder to be prepared for_and have the potential to kill far more people. But such attacks are even harder to pull off. And I'm not sure I really understand the difficulties involved in mastering those substances to the point that they can be weaponized.

washingtonpost.com: Aren't there already provisions in place that prohibit groups such as the NSA from spying on private citizens?

Vernon Loeb: As I said, the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act governd the NSA's ability to intercept the communications of Americans. FISA prohibits the NSA from targeting_deliberately intercepting_the communications of Americans, here or abroad, without a probable cause showing that the Americans in questions are foreign agents engaged in criminal conduct. As for American communications "incidentally" intercepted by the NSA, FISA requires so-called minimization procedures which basically say that those intercepts cannot be disseminated unless the American's name has been deleted and, in some cases, must be destroyed within 24 hours. So the restrictions are great. The question is, are they followed? The NSA says they are, absolutely. I have no means to prove otherwise. I await Congress's examination.

Secaucus, NJ: I've read that the US and Russia have recently opened a facility north of Moscow dedicated to increasing the security of Russia's nuclear arsenal against theft and sabotage. What more can you tell us about this effort, and how likely is it to be successful?

Vernon Loeb: I have not done any direct reporting on the particular facility you mention, but I do think the Department of Energy's work with Russian in helping safeguard its nuclear materials have been enormously valuable. I think there is still a long way to go, and some of the scariest stuff I have heard are stories about Russia's nuclear storage and safeguards. But I do believe that DOE officials have a handle on the problem.

washingtonpost.com: You mentioned the declassification of CIA documents related to Chile from 1968-1990. Why would the CIA be reluctant to release these documents?

Vernon Loeb: For starters, they would not be exactly flattering given the agency's involvement plotting coups in Chile. CIA officials, I'm sure, would also argue that the documents, while old, could jeopardize intelligence sources and methods. That may or may not be true. It's impossible to judge from the outside. Suffice it to say that whatever documents are ultimately declassified by the CIA will, in some cases, be heavily redacted, to protect sources and methods. CIA officials say they will be releasing documents related to their coup plotting and other covert activites in Chile. The next release in next april, I believe, so we'll just have to wait and see how they do. But for the sake of history, I think the agency's declassification effort here is enormously important.

Vernon Loeb: Well, it looks like our time is up. I'll be back in a month on-line. My inteligenCIA coulmn appears here on the website every other week, and I've got a Back Channels column coming up on the Fed Page on Firday. Thanks for your interest. If anyone has further questions, you can reach me at loebv@washpost.com

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