Hosted by Linton Weeks
Washington Post Staff Writer

Thank you for visiting "The Navigator – Live." Today's chat ended at 3 p.m. EDT.

Cover of "net future" by Chuck Martin.

Chuck Martin, author of "net future: the 7 cybertrends that will drive your business, create new wealth, and define your future" was today's guest. A former vice president of IBM, Chuck was the founding publisher of Interactive Age magazine. He answered questions about which businesses will easily move into e-commerce and which won't. He has some radical ideas about the fastchanging workplace and work force. And, if you plan on buying or selling anything in the future, you might want to scroll down.

"The Navigator – Live" appears each Thursday from 2 p.m. to 3 p.m. Eastern time. It's a live, moderated discussion offering washingtonpost.com users the chance to talk directly to intriguing and sometimes unusual guests who are shaping the digital world. "The Navigator" appears in The Washington Post print edition every Thursday. You can read past columns by following this link.

Linton Weeks: Chuck. Welcome to the show. Thanks for being today's guest. We're all concerned about how the Internet will affect us, maybe you can help us prepare for the unknown.

Linton Weeks: What are the seven cybertrends that you foresee?

Chuck Martin: Thanks, glad to be here.....as the to the first question...
The seven trends, which ultimately comprise E-business, are:


The Cybereconomy Goes Main Street
The Wired Workforce Takes Over
The Open-Book Corporation Emerges
Products Become Commodities
The Customer Becomes Data
Experience Communities Arise
Learning Moves to Real-Time, All-the-Time

It's also important to note that companies need to look at all seven in conjunction with each other.

Linton Weeks: What can't be sold via the Internet?

Chuck Martin: Not everything has yet been sold via the Net, but the Net will have an impact on everyting that is sold....it might not be at the e commerce end, that is, what the consumer sees, but it might involve the back-end part, that is, the product will get made in real time because a company can tell what customers wants to buy at a moment. the back end is where the big impact will be.

Linton Weeks: You say that just around the corner is a world "linked by fast, cheap communication, where speed is key". Will communication continue to be cheap?

Chuck Martin: communications will probably get even cheaper....the entire communication model needs to be re-examined....

Linton Weeks: What are your thoughts on the Y2K problem? Do you think companies should be concerned about a disruption of e-commerce?

Chuck Martin: there probabably will be a downward blip sometime in the next 6 to 12 months while major corporations divert resourse, then e commerce should continue its explosive rise.

Washington, DC: Chuck: What effect might the Microsoft trial have on e-commerce in the future?

Chuck Martin: not sure the microsoft trial will have any impact on e commerce (though probably a lot less e mail will be stored on company databases and people might be a bit more careful about what they transmit to each other).

Rockville, MD: What high-tech companies do you own stock in?

Chuck Martin: don't hold much stock in any high tech companies (at times that sure was a mistake!). Generally, have only about 3 at a time, a big one, a small one and ultimately a high risk. still have a very small amount of IBM stock, since I was a VP there for the past 2 years.

Bowie, MD: What exactly do you mean that products will become commodities?

Chuck Martin: We mean that in many cases the core value of a product will shift. That is, that companies iwll need to create or add new value to whatever their product is to remain competitive. In the Net Future, a company's core product can be commoditized by someone else. Example: if an insurance company offers cars at cost as long as you take the insurance for the necxt 3 years, commoditizes the core asset of a car dealership.

Linton Weeks: Can you talk a little bit about the way the open-book corporation will affect government?

Chuck Martin: Governments will be opening up government itself so that their residents can do more themselves. Massachusetts allowing people to pay parking tickets and form corporations online, states identifying deadbeat dads,people checking tax refund status, etc. The obvious big step would be voting from home.....many implications here.

washingotn: So what was it like at IBM? Stuffy or laid-back. How much has the place changed internally in the last 20 years - since the advent of the PC?

Chuck Martin: Since all companies are really about people and IBM has so many employees, it was as you might expect: there were some laid-back (for lack of a better term) people but there also are some extremely innovative and high-energy individuals. since I was only a VP there for 2 years, it's hard to imagine what the other 18 years were like....however, the company seems to have identified that the Net is truly important and is throwing quite a bit of its effort in that direction, which is all the e-business promotion you probably read about. Like most companies, there are people there who get it, and those who don't.

Arlington VA: Chuck -- I think travel agents are one of the professions that will get hammered by the Net. What do you think, and what other professions/industries are at immediate risk?

Chuck Martin: Travel agents need to reinvent what they do. Charging consumers a fee to issue an airline ticket just drives more buisiness travellers to the Net, where there is no fee. It's difficult to think of an industry that will not be impacted. Rule of thumb is that if you think your industry or company is not impacted, then it probably will be one of the most impacted. Many think this revolution is only happening next door, when, in fact, it is in their own backyard. Many just don't yet see it.

Linton Weeks: You use positive examples of e-commerce throughout your book, but you don't always tell us the negative aspects. You cite CompuBank, for instance, as a successful Internet-only enterprise "driven by Net-enabled customization, speed and community." But in the Oct. 14 issue of Retail Delivery News, research analyst Octavio Marenzi said that the prospects for online-only banks "don't look terribly encouraging." He said that existing brick-and-mortar banks can offer everything CompuBank offers, and more. NetGrocer recently gave up the ghost on its initial public offering and it's reportedly slicing the size of its staff considerably. Aren't there some businesses, such as banks and groceries, that will benefit from an offline presence as well as an online presence?

Chuck Martin: There are two worlds, those of online and the traditional world. the worlds are coming together. amazon builds warehouses, and Barnes and Noble launches online. Big business is starting to see the tremendous impact of a networked environment and will be spending heavily to transform their businesses because of it. It is doubtful a company will be able to succeed and grow in the Net Future without playing in both worlds. Banks aren't going to go away, and neither is online banking. Same can be said of supermarkets, etc...but they may play a totally differrent role in the future.

washington: So what do you think is the next big thing to be sold over the Web now that books and brokerage servies have paved the way?

Chuck Martin: Not sure there will be any BIG thing, rather there will be a volume of things...books, music, groceries, food staples, office supplies, over-the-counter drugs, cars, any technology are a few that come to mind.

Linton Weeks: All right. We're about half-way through and the Net Future is just a little bit closer. If you'll keep those questions coming, I'm going to sip some iced tea and ask a few more myself.

Washington, D.C.: The Wired Workforce Takes Over, you say. I find in my office that about a thousand quick, verbal interchanges make this place run, particularly chance run-ins at the coffee machine. Really a skeptic about dispersed work forces,if that's what you mean.

Chuck Martin: wired workforce just means that all people at work will have access to all other people at work, as well as all information the company has. so Lucent, for example, has real audio on someting they call Lucent Web Radio, where they broadcast to all emplpoyees around the world, all the time, not only music through PCs, but also interviews with other Lucent employees. workers now say they feel connected with the company. The irony? I learned this at an in-person gathering of Lucent employees from around the globe.

Washington, DC: Will the Internet be shifted to satellites eventually and away from phone lines?

Chuck Martin: Not sure anyone knows where this all will end up, but it probably be some kind of hybrid.

Washington: What characteristics determine which products will succeed in ecommerce?

Chuck Martin: First, it should be something consumers want.....also, should be easy to distribute and price. Small is better, and digital is the best (digital music, software, etc.).

washington dc: Will the web only cater to the wealthy and maintain the class and social structure in the society or are we going to see the next wave create democracy as it could be

Chuck Martin: Net access will be everywhere and, we expect, available to just about anyone. In large companies, it is often the workers who appreciate the power of the technology more than some expectives...because they use it.

Linton Weeks: The Net Campus obviously intrigues you. What can be taught in online courses? What can't?

Chuck Martin: almost anything can be taught online, but generally the best will be a course that augments other training. training for workers in various skills would be high on the list, and professions in required continuing education...we're moving to real-time, all the time learning...school will be just the beginning...students today are learing al the tools of the Net is just part of growing up. the next generation will be wired and will continue to learn that way.

Washington, DC: How do you use the Internet for your consulting business?

Chuck Martin: My consulting business generally involves discussions with very high-level executives, most of whom are not using the Net yet, so I do a lot of it in person. I also have a virtual institute, called The Net Future Institute, which focuses on the the future of the Net and e Business. anyone is free to join, and the address is netfutureinstitute.com.

Linton Weeks: In a corporate world that often seems to lack civility, won't increased use of e-mail only make matters, and manners, worse?

Chuck Martin: There's no alternative on the horizon for e-mail. the amnount of e mail a person sends should be re-thought, or, at leastr the number of people copied on an e mail. some people are out of control. In some ways, e mail can improve manners, because the trail of bad manners stands out...

Arlington, Va: I am a small business owner, and I'd like to sell products over the internet. But I'm worried that I'll get burned by people with fake or stolen credit cards. It seems like it'd be much easier for crooks to rip me off this way than by actually coming in my shop. Can you give me the lowdown on taking credit card orders over the net?

Chuck Martin: the general thinking is that the banks and credit card companies will be given the credit card information and then the bank will tell you the person is approved, and essentially take the risk,..haven't heard of any merchants being taken for a ride in this arena.

Linton Weeks: My mailbox seems to be an ever-growing landfill of junk mail and I'm sure I throw out some good stuff with the bad. Is effective direct marketing online possible?

Chuck Martin: yours and mine as well! Effective online marketing is very possible, but in the Net Future it will be more like online buying , rather than onlin selling. this is a totally different approach to reaching the consumer....it will take a lot of change on the part of those companies blasting us all with junk e mail.

Washington: Would it be fair to say that Fed Ex and UPS will get a HUGE boost when e-commerce really takes off. I bet they already have, actually. Should I buy some stock?

Chuck Martin: I'm hardly a stock advisor, so can't recommend you buy or sell. However, FedEx has been very awesome in its approach to the Net, and keep in mind that at the end of the process the consumer still has to get the "stuff" delivered. Don;t think we can beam things in the foreseeable future.

Washington, DC: I've read articles that say some companies are reluctant to sell their products via the Web because they don't want to alienate their current sales forces, who have been the backbone of company profits for so long (pharmaceutical industry being a good example). What do you think about this as a potential obstacle to e-commerce?

Chuck Martin: The fear of crossing the chanel is a big deal. In the Digital Estate, we proviled how Oracle tackles this issue in softeware sale, very revolutionary at the time....in Net Future, we found this has become a very mainstream issue....but if a company does not do it to itself, another company will do it to them...a tough choice, but companies will have to make it or face the consequences.....profits are going to come from different places in the future.

Linton Weeks: I loved your best and worst list, especially # 13. Best--Everyone knows how to operate a PC. Worst--No one knows how to play a violin. Without human, face to face contact, between employees and employers, customers and salesfolk, students and teachers, all kinds of people and all kinds of people--won't we be losing a lot? Seeing the paint splashed on someone's dress, for instance, and finding out that she's an artist and maybe could teach us to paint?

Chuck Martin: The Net is a very powerful tool but it is not a new life form. It will not replace life. It will enable totally new and great things, but it will not replace a lot of other things. People are not going to leave life and go into a dark room and spend the rest of their lives in front of a glowing screen. It will get integrated into our lives and we -- people -- will use it to our advantage (we hope.)

Hope this has been helpful, many of the issues are large, and not yet resolved. But this is not about technology, it's about people and business.

Linton Weeks: That's all for now. Thanks to my fine guest Chuck Martin, the good folks at washingtonpost.com and to all of you who sent in terrific questions. Hope to see you next week when my guest will be Donna Rice Hughes, author of Kids Online: Protecting Your Children in Cyberspace. Until then...

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