BizBooks: Good afternoon BizBox readers......

Welcome to the 4th segment in the BizBooks Ask the Expert Series. Today with he have with us author, CEO and veteran trendspotter Richard Laermer.

Sometimes you see a business evolve and think, I wish I'd thought of that. With his trademark razor-sharp style, Laermer reveals the most functional forecasting secrets of professional trendspotters. Today, Richard n is here to answer your questions and share his experience with you.

Welcome.

Richard Laermer: Hello everyone! Let's talk....

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Bayside, Calif: What trend will be most important to keep me working in the next 3 decades? I'm currently 73 and a psychotherapist.

Richard Laermer: The most important trend (oh there are so many) is that in the NEXT decade people will learn responsibility for everything as opposed to "oh gee" type of feeling or sentiment. It's all about Gumbitude - what can "I" do to make this happen. Good question. 73. You are way young!

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Cambridge, UK : How might alliances with large companies enhance a new venture's ability to build 'investment readiness' thereby attracting investment capital?

Richard Laermer: Alliances are important but it's most important to get exposure via verticals (trade magazines or online forums) so that the biggies can see that you have what they can't build. It's also imperative to realize that sharing with the world (which so many new cos. don't want to out of fear) is one of the most crucial ways to get others to think "the world" of what you have going on. This is going to be a very UP decade. In "2011: Trendspotting," the next decade is discussed in (really!) 77 tiny chapters as a way to expand upon ideas by bringing in a ton of other thinkers-- use the experts and get them involved. As for investment, that's how it happens. You get out there - investors see who you are!

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Milwaukee, Wisc.: I'm all for embracing new trends and change but, has their been a time when reverting back to an older, simpler way of doing things has paid-off?

Richard Laermer: Simpler is about to become IN now. We are (fortunately or unfortunately) in a Pause right now where there's nothing connecting us as people. In "2011: Trendspotting" my whole focus is about embracing REAL technologies that help us as opposed to just COOL ones that make our lives really kind of "too busy" -- in other words, they just are way too compliated -- and while there will be change, remember that our world is and always will be cyclical. What I want to point out is that, after the Pause, honestly you will be able to pick up and join in on a simpler and less obtruse way of communicating....less easy quick chat and more Full Sentence way of talking to each other. And yes I believe the phone will come back into style--real calls with people and total communication instead of all-SMS all the time.

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Palo Alto, Calif.: Say I have a new idea for a business but I don't have any immediate plans in the short-term to raise capital and get it going. In the meantime, is there a way to protect my idea before someone else snatches it up?

Richard Laermer: The way to protect your idea is to DO SOMETHING WITH IT so you are the first mover. People who sit on ideas are always sorry. Mission critical! Meaning if you believe in the mission of what you are doing - in your heart it's the ultimate winner, right - then go for it in any way possible. I see a lot of folks with very little money get their acts together because--well, face it, it's a totally networked world and people will start to see the value that you, the passionate idea man/woman, has going for him/her. In that way, I hate to be all Sally Jessy about it, but GO FOR IT.

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Alexandria, Va.: I work in a mid-sized software company, how can I help my team prepare for the future?

Richard Laermer: You can of course give your team a copy of "2011: Trendspotting" and I say that with due modesty but... I'm hearing that because it's a funny book (I take NOTHING seriously) a lot of folks are giving it to others and saying "You're not going to believe this." Value, right? But on the other hand you need to make sure that people are using technology correctly and not over-using it, and also I really believe more than anything that I've found in my research, that tech companies need to get out of their own heads and learn more about the various verticals around them. Who are the customers, really? What are their interests. The near future is about expanding yourself to be the ultimate trendspotter and the way to do that - which is what the book does in its first 25 tiny chapters :) - is to stop being so "interested" in stuff that you already know, and find out more about what you don't know -- in other words, force yourself like it's a part time job to get less personalized information... enough of the myyahoo.com and mywhatever... Get out there and see the connectives that come from finding out about, well, call centers, or prison life, or -- you know, more politics and less Britney Spears!

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Washington, D.C.: I am in a job that is interesting, challenging and I enjoy, however there is little room for moving up - do I stay or do I start looking for something with more opportunity to move up?

Richard Laermer: Here's the answer to your question in short: Your job is a great big part of your life. Make more out of it. Do what others who are "higher up" do: Get what you can from the experience. Don't think so much about looking elsewhere. This is not the right economy to job-shift. And btw, a business evolves every second of the day. how do you know that you won't be able to move up in,say, 6 months. I think you like your job--and I'm no psychologist but I am a guy who can hear when someone is happy. If you switch you're the low "guy" on the totem pole and you'll look back. Don't.

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Anonymous: What should we do now for a business that is sure to have a bright future?

Richard Laermer: Business is about to head into a field or a time when - yep - we will all feel a lot better about not only the economy but about what connects us as -- people! What to do now? Sit tight. I see the current era as one of (yes, it's true) pretty mediocre times---but that will end shortly. "2011: Trendspotting," the book, is all about what we can do now to prepare for the next cycle. When we exhale. I'm glad you think the biz (yours, Anon) will have a bright future. I agree with you a ton.

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New York, N.Y.: How do you think that marketing will change in 2011?

Richard Laermer: Everything about marketing will change. Everything. The truth is - consumers are now smarter than we marketers are. So in the near future, they will need ABSOLUTELY NOTHING from us (now they only need a little) because content will be gotten from a zillion sources, including toasters (you can imagine, right, a toaster that gives you viral videos on one side). And I also see marketers getting a bigger role in BEING THE ADVOCATE... in other words, not just assuming they know the product bec they use it but going out there and finding out angles/good news/bad news/ideas/whatever from the consumers themselves since we are closer than ever to the consumer in this networked world. Incidentally, there are a ton of chapters on marketing in the book, "2011: Trendspotting," under the section called HOW TO SELL INSTEAD OF SHILL!

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Newport, R.I.: Hi Richard, if you could advise a recent graduate from an undergraduate business program about which field to go into that is about to break out, what would it be?

Richard Laermer: Excellent question. I think that since the world is spending more / more / more time on the Web, and not just for fun and giggles, there is a need for people who are tech savvy to teach folks how to do this right. But I'm not talking about tech-geeky type things (like I do every day) but more how-to-have-a-personal-brand--for everyone. I think in the next decade that, and also professional jugglers, will be among the top fields to go into. Oh and also, newfangled publishing -- anything but paper (ha!).

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Denver, Colo.: How will rising energy costs impact e commerce-based businesses? Shipping costs will probably continue to go up, do these business lose their edge over brick-and-mortar stores?

Richard Laermer: Brick and mortar has lost its allure in every way plausible, and there is one reason for that - a topic in "2011: Trendspotting" that I bring up a lot: Customer service is dead. It's almost like no one wants to bother with it. "Once you have a customer," seems to be the adage, "why bother doing anything for them?" So to answer your question, shipping will go up, then down, because yes again everything is cyclical. E-commerce will have to shift with those times. How? Conglomerated sites: One place for shopping that acts like a mall, where shipping costs are shared. But keep in mind. As for edge, I see fewer and fewer big retail stores and more online stores that happen to have a stall somewhere that you can check things out on. I see people buying everything via technology and that's not necessarily a good thing. But welcome to our world. Oh and incidentally---stores that offer "a vivid experience," something that is wild like H&M and Abercrombie do, will always be around. we LOVE a good circus!

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Ann Arbor, Mich.: What would you say is the most important one thing that someone who is looking to start a business should consider?

Richard Laermer: Businesses have to consider the location (I sound like a real estate guy). You can't start a computer biz in the middle of nowhere if you need to hire the right folks. And in "2011: Trendspotting," which you can buy ANYWHERE including all the favorites, I do a lot of consideration on how people rush their businesses when they get off the ground and that usually makes them lose sight. One more thing: Who are you? Know the business and what its differentiator is 'definitely' before you even open the so-called doors. And have fun. If you don't have fun at first you never will have fun.

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Seatle, Wash.: I work for a company currently going through a re-structuring. Any tips for making sure that when things shake out I am still here?

Richard Laermer: Restructures are tough and they happen usually for all the wrong reasons. In "2011: Trendspotting" my whole reasoning for so much of the mess we are in now is that people are constantly talking about their biz model and diddling w it and forgetting the human part. First: Do you want to be there when things get sticky? Consider that. If you do, then you need to make yourself more valuable than ever and that's not by staying late or brown-nosing, it's by developing..wait for it..new revenue streams even small ones. Being fascinated at work shows. You can't hide the passion.

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Halifax, Canada: I work for a SEM/SEO company and have noticed an influx of companies spending large amounts of money on SEM - do you think that there will be a "crash" where this no longer works and if so - how soon?

Richard Laermer: I think there will be a slight crash in that but again, it's cyclical. In 1997 there was a slight crash in the Internet ad business--look what is happening today. Incidentally, you need to be sure you are differentating your SEO capabilities because, like Web design ten years ago, you are in a crowded field. In "2011: Trendspotting" I speak a lot about why companies lose out--when they don't realize everyone wants to eat their lunch or steal their biz.

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Albuquerque, N.M.: I live and work in New Mexico. Do you think water (or lack thereof) will be a (significant) business issue in certain areas of the country the next decade?

Richard Laermer: I am personally scared about water. Not just that the Colorado River is shrinking - scary stuff - but what about overseas in rich rich rich countries like Dubai. They need water and will get it any way.. There's a theory (I am unsure but it's good to think about) that the next world war will be over water. Yes, I think you need to consider where you live/work in the next decade -- and water is one of the top considerations. I spend half my time in the desert in CA and there's a shortage all the time there. And I hope the next POTUS goes whole-hog on conservation because we really need a system of balances/checks. In the new book, "2011: Trendspotting" I muse about items that -- wouldn't it be great if these WERE trends?! This is one.

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Columbus, Ohio: What publications do you read to discover or find emerging trends?

Richard Laermer: Me. Read? I read every single magazine that is available to me. I read trades, local press, biz journals (local and sometimes free, always cheap, constantly online) from places all over the world. I read Newsweek, US News, O! The Oprah Magazine (she's a hoot, really), New Yorker, Los Angeles, Paper magazine, Flaunt... Gosh I could do this all day. I also read about 40 blogs a day--it's really fascinating to see how influential some of them have become. That, my friends, is a good thing: We need a citizen's media. And the media itself, shrinking rapidly, is taken to task as a self-important repurpose-machine in my book "2011: Trendspotting." Incidentally, I've banned reading any celebrity magazines. It's just there are 2 many of them. And none as good as the ones from 10 years ago. When celebs were taken to task. Oh, yea, I do read Vanity Fair--for the pics.

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Boston, Mass.: I will be graduating with a undergrad degree in Business next spring. Do you think it is more important to get out in the workforce and get experience or should I attend grad school right away?

Richard Laermer: I love working. School will always be there. Get out there. You won't regret it. You gotta have experience. The truth is--well, this is "my truth"--you live in a free country and that means you can stop working at any time and get a grad degree. (I tried one of those for a few months, the grad thing, and found the teachers knew less than I did!) Get to work, dammit! (grin). Also, get out of a town that will make you want to go to school---i mean, that's what Boston stands for. In the new book "2011: Trendspotting" (yes I talk about it a lot) I explain why location affects our decisions. Get well soon, Ted K.

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Arlington, Va.: What do you see as being the next big Media outlet? And when do you think it will emerge?

Richard Laermer: Wow what a cool question. The next big media outlet is the one blog that doesn't think of itself as important. I was hoping HuffPo would be that, but (I'm a contributor) there are way too many celebs writing gibberish. I want to see real hard news appear on blogs---and maybe one of the big media companies will start doing that. My final question to you all on this topic: Since opinion IS news now, why does it have to be so negative!!

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Orlando, Fla.: To what extend will local/regional SEO and Internet Marketing take over from national/international rankings?

Richard Laermer: It will take over but again it will be cyclical. Your question's complicated. Let's imagine that local SEO is doing (like hyper-local was for a while) will be huge and then we'll all tire of that and want . The national will win out in the end. Some things never die. Incidentally, Internet marketing is here to stay - but when the Net really merges with TV, all bets are off. Last July when cable boxes became a non-issue (you don't need them now!) was the first step to your TV becoming One Box for Net and Whatever. I think the marketing to us on our single "tube" (especially since everything is digital right after next Super Bowl) will make offline marketing die down for a while, really.

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Salem, Va.: Have you ever predicted a Trend that flopped? Why did it flop? and what were the lessons learned?

Richard Laermer: Sure. I said the Easter Bunny would come down to earth and save us... Ha! Well, I had a book, "trendspotting," in 2002 and in it I did say--wow--that Madonna might not make it through the decade because at the time she was (and I'm serious here, believe it) doing so many different images I thought she had killed the whole "what's next" mystery. And there she is, looking bored on the cover of Vanity Fair and getting good reviews. And on a tech front, I thought the Internet Appliance would be huge... and guess what? I was so wrong.

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Dallas, Tex.: What is the next big trend online?

Richard Laermer: The next big trend online -- you. Seriously, can we all just imagine (and that's what "2011: Trendspotting" is!) that the online world is flatter than you or I ever imagined. You're doing stuff on YouTube and spending Zero Dollars, except for editing software from Download.com, and so is P&G. Same playing field. So everything will now be about how to expand on that. And be first---since the biggies will learn and then the new stuff will be a cliche. Also I believe that real writing will surface next online and that the shthnd stuff :) will all be left to the tweens. I mean OMFG!

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Buffalo, N.Y.: What is the most important "life lesson" you have learned and how has it helped you navigate through the business world?

Richard Laermer: The most important lesson, thanks btw, good question, is something I muse about for a second, on my blog (www.Laermer.com) and it's my biggest lesson in biz. When I worked as PR Director at Columbia Business School I was working for, sorry, a person who was kind of fake... I did notice she always had a glimmer in her eye. One day I just came out and asked her WTH was that about? She said "You have to learn how to have a good time every day no matter what or don't bother coming to work." She was right. And also....I have to say this: I used to think work was all about sales and commitment. But it's more than that. People ONLY want to work for people they like to work with. That was a huge lesson for me.

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Portland, Ore.: I am thinking about getting my MBA and switching industries, any recommendations?

Richard Laermer: Well, don't get your MBA before you decide what, that's for sure. First, MBA School is 'ok' but only if you want to be a corporate type. Really. I've discovered almost all the MBA Types I know have been taught - and remember I worked at Columbia business school so I should know - to be voracious tearer-ups of their vendors! In other words, QUESTION EVERYTHING. Huh. Am I prejudice because I happen to run a PR firm (www.RLMpr.com)? Probably. Anyway, I digressed. Get an English degree. Be the one person of your peers who is the "most excellent" writer. Then you can have your pick. In "2011: Trendspotting," I ask the question, If you can't write how will people know that you are smart. Well... answer that question by learning to do it right.

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San Diego, Calif.: Is there a particular industry that you feel is headed for disaster? Obviously, the mortgage industry is in crisis but do you feel there is another crisis looming?

Richard Laermer: Yes, I think baristas are going to have a hard time finding work soon. (I'm half-serious. Starbucks is a mess. They just announced bad earnings and "We will now concentrate on making better coffee." Are they kidding? What was the stuff I HAVE been drinking. Insulting!) Anyway.... I do think consumer banks are going to be a problem, and I believe ad agencies are going to shrink a lot--because there's less for them to do now. Retail is about to shove off, too. I think Macys Inc. or Sears will be the next big "oh my G-d." And the auto industry will be all foreign-owned in a few years for sure. Get the pattern here?

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Baltimore, Md.: I run a small company with 5 employees, do you have any tips on how to keep them motivated and push them toward the future?

Richard Laermer: I like to think I can help with "2011: Trendspotting." Yesterday I spoke at a major publisher's to every one of their senior people who then read the book. I'm getting a lot of emails saying WHOAH. Meanwhile, mentoring is huge. People forget that showing the slightest "big picture" to your employees- being transparent, opening books, getting them to see how you do what you do and what you have learned (Your Wisdom)- is the best manner in which to motivate anyone. Communication is key. Have you guys started an extranet that is freeflowing where nothing is off limits? Do you have special speakers on an online chat site (you know, pay the speaker to come on with his Web cam) to talk about stuff people want to learn? There's a world of good out there. Just don't go buying them the latest gadgets. Waste of money!

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Chicago, Ill.: Is there is one trend that you wish that you would have capitalized on sooner?

Richard Laermer: Oh gosh! The one trend I wish I'd capitalized on many years ago was in this whole mania of disaster preparedness. I saw it even before 9/11. I do a lot of stock investing and I kind of missed the boat on investing that way. Also, yep, I wish I'd bought property in places like Costa Rica and Belize before it became a cliche. My grandma told me they wouldn't make any more land and I was always too busy. I have been researching where out of the US to become a part-time citizen and I'm leaning, and I mean this, toward Eastern Europe. They got the land, baby, and the water (the sea) and of course...terrific people who know how to party and don't whine! Whining has to stop. It's bad pollution. That's a chapter in "2011: Trendspotting" that I am way proud of!

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Little Rock, Ark.: Hey Richard, What has been your "white whale" trend that you just haven't been able to capitalize on?

Richard Laermer: Hey bud. What do you mean...Let me know. Meaning income inequality?

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Eugene, OR: What is the one trend for the future that stands out above all others?

Richard Laermer: I think the fact that people are going to HAVE TO work in places they never have - in transit, at home, etc. - bec that's how our new reality will make it (why waste the real esate will become a mantra, if broadband reaches 100 percent and it will)... I'm thinking that corporations around the world will be learning how to socially direct their employees and like traffic patterns will change when we all have Segway scooters (on hydrogen), work patterns will change in ways none of us believed was possible. In "2011: Trendspotting," in the last section of "Things I couldn't figure out where they go," I give a lot of trends I can't wait to see....happen because they will blow us all away. I'm all about big change. And you are too, obviously!

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BizBooks: Looks like that's all the time we have for today. Thank you Richard for taking the time to answer our questions. And thanks to everyone for joining us.

Richard Laermer: I just want to say Wow. You guys are amazing. I do blogging all the time (badrelease.com, punkmarketing.com and the brand new Laermer.com) but never have I gotten such a cool and wide-reaching assortment of stuff from one group in a single hour. Ok, so you know my book "2011: Trendspotting" is out now -- go get one -- and it's a labor of love from 20 years of spotting trends! Also, keep in mind that this book TEACHES YOU how to not listen to reluctant futurists and do this yourself. That was why I even did the darn thing. And of course, have a good time. This book is supposed to be funny--and dammit it is. Finally, a closing thought: Andy Warhol said that "Good business is the best art." Why can't we all live with that in mind? Everything we do has an artistic bend to it. And gosh, let's just think of everything we do successfully as one step into an "artistic" future. The motto of this book is GET YOUR OWN FUTURE. I hope I'm able to help you do it.

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