Iraq: Live from Baghdad
Rajiv Chandrasekaran
Washington Post Baghdad Bureau Chief
Wednesday, September 22, 2004; 1:00 p.m. ET
Iraq promised Wednesday to release one of two high-profile women prisoners, but officials denied the decision was linked to demands by militants who purportedly killed two American hostages and threatened to execute a Briton with them unless all female Iraqi prisoners are let go. Meanwhile Wednesday, U.S. aircraft and tanks attacked rebel positions in Baghdad's Sadr City, killing 10 people and wounding 92, hospital officials said. And a suicide attacker detonated a car bomb Wednesday outside a photocopy shop in western Baghdad, killing at least six people and wounding 54, authorities said.
Washington Post Baghdad bureau chief Rajiv Chandrasekaran will be online Wednesday, Sept. 22, at 1 p.m. ET to discuss the latest news and scene live from Baghdad.
Submit your questions before or during the discussion.
Editor's Note: washingtonpost.com moderators retain editorial control
over Live Online discussions and choose the most relevant questions for guests and hosts; guests and hosts can decline to answer questions.
Rajiv Chandrasekaran: Greetings from Baghdad. It's been a busy day here--as most days are. As you can see from the story on The Post's homepage, bombings and skirmishing across Iraq claimed nearly two dozen lives and left more than 150 people wounded today. Meanwhile, authorities recovered a decapitated body in Baghdad, later identified as American hostage Jack Hensley, even as they awaited word on the fate of a British captive threatened with execution by an Islamic militant group.
Thanks for the great questions that you've already submitted. I'll get started answering them now....
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Arlington, Va.:
What is the average Iraqi's view on the insurgency and the U.S.? Do they view the insurgency as killing innocent Iraqis with car bombs and other means to establish an Islamic government? Or do they see them as fighting the U.S.'s "occupation" of Iraq?
Finally, does the average Iraqi even care that the U.S. has attempted to improve life in Iraq through public works projects, medical help, building schools, and infrastrcuture? Rajiv Chandrasekaran: Most Iraqis I talk to--I try to speak to a diverse group of people here on a regular basis--believe the presence of U.S. troops in Iraq is causing more instability than it is preventing. They feel that American forces have become a magnet for not just Iraqi insurgents but foreign fighters. That said, many of them also realize that if American troops were to leave, there would be an enormous security vacuum. Cities such as Fallujah, Samarra and Ramadi would remain in the hands on Sunni insurgents. The rebel Shiite cleric Moqtada Sadr would likely mount an attempt to retake the holy city of Najaf.
I do think that many people draw a distinction between insurgent attacks aimed at U.S. forces--which some view as legitimate acts of "resistance"--and attacks of Iraqi police, government officials and other civilian targets. There is very little support for those sorts of attacks, even among people who oppose the presence of U.S. forces here.
And on your final question, I think people do recognize the improvements that the U.S. government has brought about here, but we also have to remember that what has been accomplished is far, far less than what we promised the Iraqi people. We have failed, for instance, to meet goals for electricity production and job creation. For many Iraqis, security is the paramount issue. Rebuilding schools is great, they say, but they believe it's more important to restore order in their society. To that end, the U.S. government plans to divert about $3.5 billion in reconstruciton aid from public-works projects to security programs.
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Pittsburgh, Pa.:
How "precise" are our bombing attacks in places like Fallujah? The military keeps insisting it's only hitting the exact targets -- houses harboring insurgents -- but the footage looks like the destruction of entire neighborhoods. Is there any way to accurately calcluate how many innocent civilians are being killed and are those casualties resulting in more people joining these insurgents out of anger against us? It just seems like a vicious cycle. Rajiv Chandrasekaran: Good question. I think the truth is somewhere in between. I think the military is doing it's best to hit terrorist targets, but Fallujah is a densely packed urban environment where terrorist associated with Abu Musab Zarqawi often take cover near noncombatants. In a dispatch I filed from Fallujah two days ago, I touched on this issue. On Sept. 17, I wrote, the military said in statement that it conducted "another successful precision strike" on a meeting of "approximately 10 Zarqawi terrorists" in central Fallujah. "There was no indication that any innocent civilians were in the immediate vicinity of the meeting location," the military said in its statement. But neighbors interviewed by an Iraqi journalist working for The Washington Post described a different aftermath from the thunderous explosion. They said six people were killed: two foreign fighters meeting in the targeted house and a family of four--a father, mother and two children--living next door.
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washingtonpost.com:
Marines Bide Their time in Insurgent-Held Fallujah, (Post, Sept. 21)
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Chicago, Ill.:
What is your sense of how politically committed the best
trained of the Iraqi troops are? That is, do you think that
these young men, especially those who are Sunni, are
likely to see the present Iraqi government and army as
embodying Iraqi nationalism? Or is there a significant
enough illegitimate taint associated with this force that it
will prove ineffective and essentially unwilling to
aggressively press the attack? If you cant be sure, at least
give us your intuition about how the thing is going to
break. Secondly, who really effectively politically controls
American forces in Iraq. Is it the White House, Rumsfeld,
Abazaid, Casey or Alawi. I know what the chain of
command is, I want to know whos ideas are carrying the
day.
Rajiv Chandrasekaran: Fantastic question. You hit on one of the most important--and unanswered--questions out there now. The U.S. military command here has got a new training system for Iraqi soldiers and National Gaurdsmen, one that is supposed to reduce the chances of defections, as occurred in the spring. But will the new recruits be willing to fight their fellow Iraqis? Nobody knows yet. Three battalions of the new Iraqi army were dispatched to Najaf last month to storm the shrine of the Imam Ali if needed. But a last-minute peace deal kept them from mounting the raid. Would they have gone through with it? U.S. commanders think so, but we don't know for sure. Most recruits are drawn to the army, the National Guard and the police because of the salary: At more than $400 a month for a basic recruit, it's a lot more than they would make in another line of work. And there are few other jobs to be had. But if money and not national pride is the motivating force, one wonders how steadfastly they will fight when the time comes.
As for who controls U.S. forces here, it's strictly an American chain of command. The overall U.S. commander here, Gen. George Casey, reports to Gen. John Abizaid, the commander of the U.S. Central Command. But major military operations, such as those in Najaf last month, are conducted with the full consent of Iraq's interim government. On major issues, such as whether to storm the shrine, the decision rests with the interim prime minister, Ayad Allawi, according to U.S. officials here.
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Laurel, Md.:
With all the widespread violence in Iraq occuring now, what do you feel are the realistic chances that legitimate elections can be held in January? Rajiv Chandrasekaran: Good question. It's hard to imagine elections being held with the current level of violence. U.S. military commanders have said they plan to mount a series of major operations with Iraqi forces by the end of the year aimed at pacifying provincial capitals and other important cities in time for the election. It's too soon to tell, however, whether that campaign will lead to a fundamental improvement in the security situation.
One thing to remember, though, is that everyone here wants the elections to happen on time. It's not just Washington that's pushing to meet the end-of-January deadline. After being denied the ability to choose their leaders for more than three decades, people here overwhelmingly want to exercise their democratic rights. They recognize that elections likely will be very violent--car bombers will almost certinaly target lines of people waiting outside polling places--but people here don't think the balloting should be delayed. Most people I talk to say they're willing to risk a wave of violence for the chance to vote.
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Biding time:
Is the general consensus in Iraq that this administration is simply waiting until the November election before launching out against the insurgents because an earlier assault would likely result in a tremendous loss of American lives and that wouldn't look good for the president's re-election chances? If that's the consensus, how's it playing among Iraqi civilians, who must feel like pawns in this whole ugly mess we've created? Rajiv Chandrasekaran: That's certinaly one view. Another explanation is that U.S. commanders want to mount major operations in conjuction with Iraq army units, to create the perception that it is an "Iraqi-led" effort. There are only a few trained Iraqi army battalions out there now. More will come on-line at the end of October and yet more will be deployed at the end of the year. U.S. commanders here say that's the reason for the go-slow approach, not the U.S. elections.
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Wexford, Pa.:
Hi Rajiv, something out of Iraq that seems to be flying a bit under the radar are the recent killings of a few clerics.
Correct me if I'm wrong, but within the last few days, weren't two Sunni clerics killed and then a Shiite cleric and his wife murdered?
Is there some sort of sectarian war brewing just beneath the surface and about to erupt, or are these killings some sort of personal vendettas? If it's the former, then the situation will turn ugly awfully fast and spiral out of control, don't you think?
Rajiv Chandrasekaran: Smart of you to notice the killing of the clerics. It's certainly an ominous sign. But's it hard to tell what the broader implications will be. Several Sunni and Shiite clericshave been killed since Saddam Hussein's government was toppled. The most notable was the car-bomb assassination last August of Ayatollah Mohammed Bakr Hakim, one the senior-most Shiite leaders in Iraq. Despite these killings, Sunni and Shiite leaders have not turned on each other. Many of them blame outside agitators, including Abu Musab Zarqawi, for trying to spark a sectarian war. One positive sign that is that, thus far, we haven't heard of relgious leaders preaching violence against other sects. The messages from most mainstream mosques here, both Sunni and Shiite, is one of religious unity.
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Ann Arbor, Mich.:
I heard that the supposedly the two Americans who were recently murdered were abducted in part because the guard who was supposed to be guarding their residence didn't show up that day. Is there any new info on who this guard was and whether or not he's being punished and whether he may have been in dealings with terrorists?
Rajiv Chandrasekaran: Good question. We haven't heard anything new about the missing guard. It's certainly very suspicious. It's also a reminder about the dangers foreigners face in living here. Most foreigners who are in private homes have multiple armed guards--or they live in the Green Zone.
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Winnipeg, Canada:
Regarding the issue of improving the life of Iraqis, are there any reliable statistics on such issues as the availability of electricity and water pre- and post-invasion, the number of pre-and post-invasion malnourished children, the numbers attending school, etc.
I have seen conlficting reports, but in first-hand reports, such as an aid worker who recently returned to my home town and wrote a newspaper article, the consensus seems to be that Iraqis, matierially at least, are much worse off than before the invasion.
Rajiv Chandrasekaran: It's a mixed bag. There's more power being generated now than before the war. There is probably more clean water too. Many schools have been renovated. More children have been immunized. Public-opinion research shows that a majority of Iraqis believe their economic conditions have improved since Saddam was toppled. The markets have been flooded with cheap imported goods, including used cars, air conditioners and televisions. But economics and public-services are only part of an overall quality of life. Security, as we all know, is much, much worse. Most Iraqis say the lack of security is their top concern. Many say that doesn't matter whether the municipal water is safe to drink or not--what really matters is whether they can move around their communities without fear of getting car bombed, kidnapped or hit with a mortar.
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Chicago, Ill.:
I recently read in Time Magazine that insurgents have infiltrated the Iraqi National Guard and police. What have you heard about this? Rajiv Chandrasekaran: There's no reliable way to screen people when you're trying to build a police force of 135,000 officers and an army and national guard that has tens of thousands of members. It's only natural to expect some insurgents to apply for jobs in the security services and then use their new positions to mount insider operations. The U.S. military and the Iraqi government is trying to identify potential trouble-makers, but nobody believes they will find them all.
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Takoma, Md.:
We are getting two radically differnt assessments of conditions in Iraq--one is that it's on the road to expelling the insurgents and that democracy is within the country's grasp; the other that things are going to hell in a handbasket, that a civil war looms, and that elections themselves if they occur in January will become a target of car bombs and worse.
Which version is more accurate?
Rajiv Chandrasekaran: There's truth to both versions. (I know. I know I'm being a mealy-mouthed journalist....) Look, I think there's a good chance that elections will occur in January. Will they be violent? Will a lot of people die? Yes. But will they get a democratically elected government? Probably. I don't think the insurgency will be eliminated anytime soon. If anything, the ranks of insurgents have been growing stronger since the transfer of governing authority in June, partially because U.S. troops are doing less patrolling and because Iraqi security forces still have a long way to go before they can effectively confront the insurgents. But are we facing an imminent civil war? I don't think so. I think, to borrow Donald Rumsfeld's now-famous phrase, we're in for a long, hard slog. We're going to see a lot of violent days.
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Fairfax, Va.:
How do you personally endure the conditions over there and the constant threat against all foreigners, including journalists? And do you ever sleep? I see you on the News Hour and realize it must be the middle of the night for you.
Rajiv Chandrasekaran: We at The Post, like most other foreign journalists here, have had to restrict our movements around Baghdad and the rest of the country because of the seucrity situation. I used to jump in a car and drive out to places like Fallujah and Baqubah to write about attacks, to get a sense of what was really happening on the ground. No longer. The roads are too dangerous, the threat of kidnapping too great. We spend a lot of time sitting in our hotels and relying on the reporting of our very brave Iraqi local staff. It's not great for us and it's not great for our readers, but it's the best we can do under the circumstances.
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Los Angeles, Calif.:
Mr. Chandrasekaran,
Thanks for taking our questions. Are you getting any sense that the U.S. is gaining any ground in Iraq in terms of cultivating human intelligence? As far as Al Zaqawi is concerned, does anyone have any idea where he is?
Also, what is the reaction of the ordinary Iraqi Muslim citizen to the barbaric slayings of civilians? Thanks again.
Rajiv Chandrasekaran: U.S. officials think Zarqawi is in or near Fallujah, but nobody knows for sure. What's certain is that he's moving with great care and stealth. After all, there is a $25 million bounty on his head.
Every Iraqi I have talked to about the beadings has expressed revulsion. They all maintained that such barbaric acts violated the principles of Islam.
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Washington, D.C.:
As a Kurd from Northern Iraq I would like to know role of the Kurds in the new Iraq. Are we ever going to see a federal state for the Kurds?
Rajiv Chandrasekaran: That will be sorted out when Iraqis write a constitution. Kurdish leaders are certainly pushing for a federal state for the Kurds, but Shiite leaders have expressed reservations about the concept of federalism. Some of them see it is a step toward the break-up of Iraq. In the end, however, I think there will be an arrangement whereby the Kurds get a federal state or something close to it.
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Oakland, Calif.:
Rajiv, Yesterday, I heard you on NPR report that you had just come from Fallujah. I appreciate your courageous pursuit of the facts and I think you are doing important work. My question is this: Have you lost your mind?
Rajiv Chandrasekaran: Almost.
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Rajiv Chandrasekaran: It's 2 p.m. in Washington and 10 p.m. here in Baghdad. I've gotta run and start writing a story for tomorrow's Post. Thanks for tuning in and thanks for all of your great questions. I'm sorry I couldn't answer all of them.
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