Hamas Leader Killed
Fawaz A. Gerges
Chair, International Affairs and Middle Eastern Studies at Sarah Lawrence College
Monday, March 22, 2004; 3:00 p.m ET
Israeli aircraft attacked and killed Sheik Ahmed Yassin, the spiritual leader and founder of Hamas and Israel's top target, as he was pushed in a wheelchair from morning prayers at a Gaza City mosque early Monday, prompting condemnation across Europe and the Middle East and massive demonstrations in Gaza and the West Bank, Hamas Leader Sheik Ahmed Yassin Killed in Gaza.
Fawaz Gerges, chair of International Affairs and Middle Eastern Studies at Sarah Lawrence College,
will be online Monday, March 22 at 3 p.m. ET, to discuss Yassin's death, world reaction and likely implications for the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
Submit your questions and comments before or during today's discussion.
Gerges specializes in Islam and the political process, fringe Islamist movements, Arab politics, American foreign policy in the Middle East, the modern history of the Middle East, history of conflict, diplomacy and foreign policy, historical sociology and international relations.
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Fawaz Gerges: The assassination of Hamas spritual leader Ahmad Yassin raises serious, critical questions not just about the potential for a dramatic escalation of violence between Palestinians and Israelis but also about radicalization of Palestinian politics further and a spillover into neighboring Arab countries. The decision by Israeli Prime Minister, Ariel Sharon, to kill Yassin, could have the opposite results from its intended consequences.
Will the assassination of Yassin make Israelis more secure, or will it lead to the shedding of more Jewish and Arab blood? Will his death bring Palestinians and Israeli closer to a peacefull settlement, or prolong their estrangement and conflict? I fear that the answer to both questions is more, not less, instability, chaos, hatred, and bloodshed.
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Harrisburg, Pa.:
When the Israeli government kills someone like Sheik Ahmed Yassin, does anyone consider how they expect the Palestinians will react? What reaction do they expect?
Fawaz Gerges: If history serves as a guide, the reaction of Palestinians will be bloody indeed. For example, in March 1996, Israeli assassinated Hamas' chief bomb maker, Yahya Ayyash, who was held responsible for the death of dozens of Israelis. Initilaly, Israeli security services boasted about the success of their assassination operation, yet Hamas subsequently retaliated with a wave of suicide bombings, which killed 62 Israelis and injured many others, and terrorized Israeli society.
If Hamas retaliated so brutally to avenge the killing of one of its famous engineers, one can imagine the extent and nature of its response to the assassination of its spiritual leader. Hamas' officials have already promised to avenge his death by killing hundreds of Israelis. It remains to be seen if Hamas can still deliver on its threats. But the writing is on the wall. Ariel Sharon knows full well that Hamas will retaliate and blood will be shed on both sides. Both sides will be worse off.
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New York, N.Y.:
Killing a crippled, blind old man shows how baser and meaner a regime can go. These missiles are paid by US tax payers money. Now we more buying more enemies than we can handle. Your comments?
Fawaz Gerges: The assassination of Yassin introduces a highly volatile factor into the Palestinian-Israeli equation. Until now Hamas made it very clear that its struggle was internal and that it would not expand its attacks outside Palestinian territories. Today there are signs that some Hamas officials accused the United States of being indirectly responsible for the killing of their leader and insunated that they could retaliate against US interests. Other Muslim clerics also denounced Washington's call for restraint and called on Arabs and Muslims to stand up to Washington and assist the Paletsinians in their struggle.
One point must be made clear: American vital interests in the world of Islam are not served by exerting pressure on on side to show restraint, instead of doing so on both sides.
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Washington, D.C.:
Two questions:
The U.S. says it had no advance knowledge of this attack - doesn't it seem strange that Israel would not alert the US to an action that could have such far-reaching consequences?
What has been the reaction in Israel? Widespread support? Any criticism from unexpected quarters?
Fawaz Gerges: Although I doubted if Ariel Sharon informed the White House of the attack in advance, the unwillingness of the Bush administration to oppose the so-called Israel's extra Judicial killings and assassinations is seen as a policy of implicit approval of such methods. These killings not only do not serve the long term cause of Israeli-Palestinian peacemaking but also intensify hostility and suspicion of the United States in the Arab/Mulsim world. The Bush administration must become more actively engaged in bringing Palestinians and Israeli back into the negotiating table and must impress on Sharon's the need to exercise restraint stop these counterproductive killings.
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Washington, D.C.:
If the consequences are so obviously different from stated policy, I must wonder just how un- the unintended consequences could be? Why is it that every step America and Israel take to increase safety only results in further bloodshed and war?
Fawaz Gerges: It is worth noting that Yassin was considered a moderating voice within Hamas. Although this footnote might surprise some American readers who do not see any distinctions among Hamas leaders, the fact is that Yassin managed to prevent more hawkish colleagues from fully plunging into an all out war against Israel.
Now Hamas will fall into the hands of more aggressive leaders, like those of Dr. Abd al-Aziz Rantisi, who have advocated a full onslaught against Israel. After Yassin's assassination, the rallying cry of Hamas leaders is for all-out war, and that there no longer exist any red lines. There is a danger that the further radicalization of Hamas will translate into more suicide bombings against Israelis. This is excatly what I meant by the law of unintended consequences. Will Israel be safer after the exist of Yassin from the scene? It is very unlikley!
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Washington, DC:
One hypothesis I have heard bandied about today is the possibility that Sharon/Israel wants to try to start an internal civil war between Arafat's Fatah party and Hamas, as the former is seen to be losing proponents to the latter due to charges of corruption, placidity, etc., and that this might strengthen Hamas... forcing Fatah to have to confront them in order to maintain their own authority in Palestine. Arguments between the two would continue to escalate until they begin fighting eachother either politically or physically, leaving a weaker structure for Israel to exploit.
And of course there is also the theory that this attack is also meant that Sharon is trying to start a full scale war between Israel and Palestine to end things once and for all. I think that sounds a bit conspiracy theory-esque for my tastes. But a lot of people seem to believe it.
Thoughts on either of these two possibilities?
Fawaz Gerges: Yes, a danger exists that the further radicalization of Hamas will not only mean an escalation of violence between Israelis and Plaestinians but also the risk of intra-Palestinian civil war. Sheikh Yassin played a decisive role in keep the lid tight on intra-Palestinians differences and tensions. He would not tolerate any clash with the Arafat's Fatah or with the Palestinian National a Authority. Other Hamas leaders are less careful and more willing to challenge Arafat's authority. In this sense, the assassination of Yassin could potentially add more fuel to a raging fire under the surface of Plaestinian politics. Sharon and his aides know the complex dynamics of Palestinian politics and hope the play them off one againt another.
My own instinct tells that the Palestinians have shown maturity and restraint. They have refused to plunge into the brink of civil strife. Let is hope that the killing of Sheikh Yassin does not create the conditions for internal instability and violence.
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Washington, DC:
Regardless of opinions on the occupation of the West Bank and Gaza - and I oppose it wholeheartedly - I've seen almost no mention of the fact that Sheikh Yassin opposed far more than the occupation.
He repeatedly, and regularly, called for the destruction of all of Israel - a sovereign state recognized by the UN.
Instead, articles are mentioning Hamas's charity work, its hospitals and schools, as though that work somehow balances out the same group's murderous bombings.
While I think that his assassination will cause far more problems than it might solve, I object to his being referred to as "an old man in a wheelchair" as though it obviates his responsibility for Hamas's founding, aims, and actions.
Your thoughts?
Fawaz Gerges: Yes, Sheikh Yassin did sanction sucide bombings against Israelis. And yes, suicide bombings do not serve the interests of either the Palestianians or Israelis. In particular, they have done considerable damage to the moral cause of the Palestinians. They have also diverted attention from the brutal Israeli occupation and the dismal plight of the Palestinians.
Having said so, Sheikh Yassin, as an Israeli observer put it, did not put faith in a military solution to the prolonged Israeli-Palestinian conflcit. He often spoke of hundred-year truces between Israelis and Palestinians and suggested a temporray cessation of hostilities, implying he would grant de facto recognition of Israel.
Was that enough or adequate? No. But it is a humble beginning that promised a shift in Hamas' strategy. of
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Santa Fe, NM:
It's been suggested that Sharon's goals were to be able to evacuate Gaza from a position of strength, and thus to prevent a repeat of the Lebanon debacle. This seems to make sense. Your thoughts?
Fawaz Gerges: I think Ariel Sharon is trying to send a strong message to Hamas and Palestinians that he would continue to strike against their resources and leadership now and after he evacuates the Gaza Strip. His stratgey is to weaken Hamas and keep its leadership off balance. Again, his actions could end up strengthening the militant group and rallying public support in its favor. Hundred of thounsands of Palestinians protested the killing of Sheikh Yassin and thousands of new, fresh recruits are likely to join its cells and squads.
As important, Hamas' status and reputation has been elavated throughout Arab and Muslim lands. In fact, Ariel Sharon's actions are contributing to making Hamas as popular as Lebanon's Hezbollah.
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Cincinnati, Ohio:
Exactly what does the Israeli government expect to gain from the assasination of Yassin? In the final analysis they must expect this act to have a positive net effect. Reading news reports and columns though I can see nothing positive come from this save pandering to the hawks in Sharon's government. Am I missing something here?
Fawaz Gerges: Indeed, the killing of Yassin does not appear to provide any positive returns for Israeli security. The opposite is true.
For more than three years, since the outbreak of the armed Al Aqsa Intifada, Ariel Sharon has used all instruments at his disposal in order to militarily crush the Palestinians. The conflict persists. The shedding of Jewish and Arab blood continues. Israelis feel as insecure as ever.
The big moral lesson that both Israeli and Palestinian hawks do not grasp is the folowing: there is no mlitary solution to the Palestinian-Israeli conflict. Hamas and Jihad will not succeed in forcing Israelis to pack and leave the country. Israelis will not succeed in crushing the political will of the Palestinians to resist military occupation.
The solution is simple: Israel must withdraw from the occupied Palestinian territories and allow the Palestinians self-determination in return for peace and security for Israeli citizens. A just settlement based on historical reconciliation offers the only way out of this deadly cyle of violence and mutual self-destruction.
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Bronx, N.Y.:
Does the Israeli public back these
targeted attacks?
Fawaz Gerges: Unfortunately, a plurality of Israelis support these extar judicial assassinations. Although these killings have not made Israelis more secure, nonetheless, the Israeli public hopes that they would produce results. Suicide bombings have driven many Israelis to take hawkish positions on security issues, even though Ariel Sharon's brutal tactics have not brought Israelis any peace of mind.
In this sense, Palestinians must reflect on the moral and political consequences of suicide bombings and develop a consensus against the use of such methods. In the same vein, Israelis must recognize the fact that oppressing other people will corrupt the soul of their democracy and humanity as well.
Both sides have much reflection to do in order to prevent the hardliners amongst them from plunging them into the brink of mutual self-destruction.
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washingtonpost.com:
That concludes today's discussion. Thank you for your questions.
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Silver Spring, Md.:
What makes you think Hamas would be willing to stop attacking Israel for control of just the so-called occupied territories?
Fawaz Gerges: Hamas is not a monolith. It is a political organization which encompasses a broad spectrum of political and ideological orientation.
Take, for example, Isma'il Abu Shanab, who was assassinated by Israelin last August, who was one of the most pragmatic Hamas leaders, who openly accepted an Israeli state. Sheikh Yassin also coached his moderate position in nuanced language. The point to stress is that at the end of the day Hamas, if and when it is integrated into mainstream Palestinain politics, will come to terms with the reality of the Israeli state.
Let us not be misled by the ideological rhetoric of Hamas. This political animal possesses earthly ambitions.
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Washington DC:
You state that Israel did not tell the US that it was going to strike, but in 2003, Israel- "In response to suicide bombings, Israel intensifies targeted killings of militants and declares top Hamas leaders "marked for death." and then on Sept. 6, 2003: Israeli air force drops 550-pound bomb on Gaza building where Hamas leaders had gathered; Yassin escapes with a small wound on his hand.
It seems to me that Israel provided the world lots of notice about it's intent.
Fawaz Gerges: Yesterday's assassination of Sheikh Yassin did not come as a surprise. On 6 Sept., he escaped narrolwy after Israel dropped a 555-pound bomb on a gathering of Hamas leaders. On Jan. 16, Israel's deputy defense minister, Zeev Boim, said Yassin was "marked for death" by Israel: "He should hide himself deep undergound where he won't know the difference between day and night." Sheikh Yassin responded, "We do not fear death threats. We are seeking martyrdom."
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Fawaz Gerges: It is my hope that the silent majority on both sides will reclaim its voice of rationality, humanity, and peace and will silence the hardliners who have inflicted too much pain and suffering on each other.
Many thanks.
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