Taiwan Elections
Richard C. Bush III
Senior Fellow of Foreign Policy Studies at the Brookings Institution
Monday, March 22, 2004; 11:30 a.m. ET
Taiwan reelected President Chen Shui-ban by a slim margin this weekend, though the self-governing island failed to ratify the controversial referendum Chen backed that would have strengthened Taiwan's military and opened talks with China. Chen's opponent, Nationalist Party leader Lien Chan, has refused to accept the results of the vote and is challenging the validity of the election.
Richard C. Bush III, Senior Fellow of Foreign Policy Studies at the Brookings Institution, discussed the recent elections in Taiwan and the implications of the outcome.
The transcript follows.
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Vancouver, Canada:
Hi Mr. Bush
I am just wondering with the protests still ongoing in Taipei, will this affect the KMT and the Pan Blue Camp in the Parliament Elections in December?
Thank you
Richard C. Bush III: Hard to say. But I think this episode will actually strengthen the pan-Blue and energize them to redouble their efforts and fight hard in December. They must, however, do a better job in nominating the right number of people.
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Arlington, Va.:
To look ahead, two issues have profound implications on US-Taiwan relations. For one is the failed attempt to securitize Taiwan's sovereignty by referendum due to its lack of legitimacy. The other, surprisingly more important now, is the controversies over the fairness of the election, including the conspiracy of the staged assasination, which altogether may undermine Taiwan's democratic consolidation. I guess the first issue is good news for the US while the second one bodes ill for the global democratic promotion. By the end of the year you may no loneger term Taiwan as a two-party democratic system because DPP is likely to grow quikly and to become something like KMT before year 2000. This is the bad news for the global democratic community, since once DPP become KMT-nized, it is unlikely to see turnover of the ruling party for probably the coming decade(It took DPP about thirteen years to be in power.) It'd be great if you share with us what you make of it on the two major issues mentioned above.
Richard C. Bush III: The fact that less than half of the voters voted for the referendum doesn't necessarily stop the pan-Green from pushing forward. It may just reflect pan-Blue voters opposition to this referendum. The bigger question is whether the legislature will change the referendum law to allow a referendum to approve a new constitution.
On the second question, you make a good point. But a re-count that most in Taiwan regard as fair and legitimate will likely strengthen the world's image of Taiwan's democracy.
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Taipei, Taiwan:
Many pan-blue voters here (and some green ones) are convinced that Friday's assassination attempt was a fake. In all fairness, the incident was bizarre to say the least and does seem highly suspect. What do the experts say about this?
Richard C. Bush III: I don't know what experts are saying. But it appears that the U.S. government had little doubt that it was a serious attempt.
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Taiwan, ROC:
What do you think about the protest made by the Nationalist Party? Will it lead to a catastrophe? Or it's worthwhile because there are too many doubts about the outcome to be clarified and it can test the strength of Taiwan's democratic system? Should the president-elected Chen promise a recount as soon as possible to stabilize the society? Finally, do you think the shooting plays an important role in the outcome of the election?
Richard C. Bush III: On the protests, it depends on what happens over the next couple of weeks. As you suggest, a resolution of the situation that the Taiwan public regards as fair and legitimate will strengthen the system.
It's hard to say what impact the election had. It may have strengthened support for Chen among undecided voters. Perhaps exit polls will provide a clear answer.
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Beijing, China:
The outcome of Taiwan's election disappointed me. As a mainlander, I persoanlly doubt the possibility of peaceful unification as the fever of Taiwanese' s nationlism is on the rise. So do you think the use of force is the only way for Chinese unification process? Why Chineses and Koreans is quite different in the same issue?
Richard C. Bush III: I certainly hope that China does not use force. The election demonstrates that the Taiwan public is evenly divided on most major issues, particularly mainland policy. Taiwan identity is strong but so is the understanding of the role China plays in Taiwan's economy. I think that China could do more to make positive appeals to the Taiwan public.
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Los Angeles, Calif.:
Candidates at the challenging party have met with AIT chief in Taipei. While the Bush administration has enough headaches in Iraq and Afghanistan, do you think U.S. will even get involve in the dispute?
Richard C. Bush III: The Administration has signalled that it wants the election dispute to be resolved within Taiwan according to established procedures. It will wait to see the outcome and then determine the best way for the US to promoted its interests in peace and stability in the Taiwan area.
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Rochester, N.Y.:
I've heard stories that after the assassination attempt, chen shui bian imposed a national state of emergency, which precludes police and soldiers from voting. since these two institutions are fairly conservative, such a move would reduce opposition support, lending some credence to the conspiracy theories. Do you know anything about these rumors?
Richard C. Bush III: I have heard these rumors. Taiwan military officials have said that the alert did not affect voter turnout among soldiers. Even if it did, it did not necessarily hurt the pan-Blue. Some soldiers no doubt voted for Chen.
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Arlington, Va.:
During the campaign, President Chen asked voters to vote yes to the referendums even if they don’t vote for him. It doesn’t make much sense that President Chen could win the election while losing both of the referendums he strongly proposed. How do you interpret this?
Richard C. Bush III: The explanation lies in the decision of most of the Blue voters (probably 5 out of 6) to not vote in the referenda because they thought it illegal.
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Rockville, Md.:
New York Times reported that Chen’s party initially refused the recount request. Does the recount decision suppose to be made by Chen's office or the election commission? Also, who is in charge of the commission and who are the members in the panel?
Richard C. Bush III: My understanding is that the courts will decide whether a recount is necessary. The opposition must present evidence to support its contention that a recount is necessary.
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Washington D.C.:
How come the state department has not acknowledged the ‘winner’? What's your take on this? Thank you.
Richard C. Bush III: I don't know exactly why the Administration took the position stated by the State Department. I suspect that because of the possibility of a recount, Washington did not want to appear to prejudge the outcome.
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Washington, D.C.:
It seems suspicious that the incumbent won by only 30,000 votes when there's a claim that 330,000 ballots were not counted.
Sure, 30,000 out of 13 million ballots is a very close margin, but the win margin compared to the uncounted ballots is substantial also.
Richard C. Bush III: There are always a small number of ballots that are disqualified. The number was more this time, but there was also an organized effort this time by groups dissatisfied with all the political parties. They urged their followers to show their dissatisfaction by purposefully marring their ballots.
There is no way of knowing for whom these people would have cast their votes if they had chosen to do so.
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Taipei, Taiwan:
Why don't people think about "one country on each side of Taiwan (northern side and southern side)," since there has been a big political gap between northern and southern Taiwan?
Richard C. Bush III: You are absolutely right about the territorial dimension of Taiwan's political divide. It has a very long history.
One interesting feature of this election is that the pan-Green improved their performance in the north. They secured about 250,000 more votes than 2000 in the Hakka counties. They got about 250,000 more votes in Taipei County (which admitedly has a lot of southerners).
Bridging this divide, with its territorial dimension, is an important task for Taiwan's political leaders.
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Monterey, Calif.:
Two separate questions:
Is it POSSIBLE that the assassination attempt was a fake?
Do you think it WAS a fake?
Richard C. Bush III: My personal view, based on not very much hard information, is that it would be hard to carry out such an action. There are many ways that it could have gone wrong.
As I noted before, the US government seemed to signal that this was a serious attempt to kill President Chen.
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Richmond, Ky.:
From your opinion, how do you see this election? Do you think the election was fair?
Richard C. Bush III: Based on my experience, the Taiwan system for balloting and counting is quite sound (better than Florida). Unintended mistakes are possible in any system, which is why there are procedures for re-counts.
More broadly, in any election campaign the competing camps will have their share of advantages and disadvantages. Each has to exploit the former and minimize the latter.
All in all, in the end the judgment will be that this was a fair election.
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New York, N.Y. :
What has China's reaction been to the election and the vote on the referendum?
Richard C. Bush III: China is watching the situation carefully, and withholding action until the final outcome is determined.
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Alexandria, Va.:
For those of us who are not well versed in the Taiwan election, where is the base for each party? Is there a trending in the country towards or away from independence?
Richard C. Bush III: Two political forces fought this elections: the pan-Blue and pan-Green. The pan-Blue is made up of the Nationalist Party (Kuomintang or KMT), the People¡¦s First Party (PFP) and the New Party (the latter two are KMT splinters). Its candidates were KMT Chairman Lien and PFP Chairman James Soong Chu-yu. The pan-Green is composed of President Chen¡¦s Democratic Progressive Party, and the Taiwan Solidarity Union, founded by former President Lee Teng-hui. (Why the colors? Blue is the main color of the KMT flag, Green for the DPP flag).
The election offered a clear choice for Taiwan voters. The pan-Blue is more conservative and called for greater accommodation of China, mainly because the island¡¦s economy is increasingly dependent on the mainland¡¦s. The pan-Green includes people who wish to make Taiwan completely independent of China. The pan-Blue is not about to sell out the island¡¦s political interests to Beijing, and the pan-Green understands that Taiwan¡¦s economic future lies with China. But still, voters could have little doubt about where each camp stood.
There is a growing Taiwan identity on the island, and a segment of the populations wants complete independence. But actually the majority of Taiwan people see themselves as both Chinese and Taiwanese. Most people are fairly pragmatic and understand that China is a reality and full independence is not possible.
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Taiwan, ROC:
Do you think the dispute will soon be settled?
Richard C. Bush III: It's hard to say. It depends on how fast the Council of Grand Justices believes it may act on the suit of the pan-Blue. That likely depends on the quality of the allegations the pan-Blue makes.
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Bethesda, Md.:
Came from Taiwan and still have family and friends there.
I think the post-election chaos is been overblown by the
media. The hard-core enthusiasts are rattling, but most
people consider the results fair under the circumstances,
and KMT should admit defeat and move on. Considering
that the Pan-Blue camp's support drop from 60 percent in 2000
to 50 percent now, KMT is due for some serious reform.
Richard C. Bush III: I am inclined to agree with you. Whatever the ultimate outcome I think the pan-Green performed well in improving its support in the electorate by 10 percent.
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Rochester, N.Y.:
From a broader perspective beyond the election, how well do you think the three principal sides (Beijing, Taipei, and D.C.) understand each other?
It's shocking to me to think that the president of the U.S. has to publicly (if indirectly) rebuke the DPP on the voter initiatives. Are messages between the three players getting through? Do they know where the "red lines" lie?
Richard C. Bush III: I think each side has some defects in how it views the other two. Each side contributes to that misunderstanding sometimes by sending conflicting signals. I tend to think that Beijing's understanding of Taiwan is weak. It's getting better but there are still gaps.
I think President Bush's public statement last December reflected some frustration that private messages were not getting through. There was a problem of mixed messages though.
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Virginia:
What role should the United States play in relations between Taiwan and China? What is the benefit of not supporting Taiwanese independence?
Richard C. Bush III: The United States should work to set boundaries for this dispute so that it doesn't spin out of control. As President Bush put it, we oppose actions by either side to unilaterally change the status quo.
It would be inappropriate for the US to serve as a mediator, in part because neither China nor Taiwan has total confidence in Washington. And China wants to handle this as an internal matter if at all possible.
The benefit of saying that the US "does not support TI" is that it reassures China about US intentions and keeps Taiwan expectations about US support reasonable. I do not believe it conveys (or is meant to convey) a view on how the China-Taiwan dispute should be resolved.
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Taipei, ROC:
Do you thing Taipei's mayor Ma will take over the leadership in KMT?
Richard C. Bush III: It's too early to say. But that is certainly a scenario.
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Taipei, ROC:
How do you comment on Lian's behavior?
Richard C. Bush III: I am sure he was disappointed in the result, particularly if he thought he was going to win.
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Richmond, Ky.:
"Most people in Taiwan think themselves as both Taiwanese and Chinese" was true before, but maybe not anymore. Research has shown that more than 43 percent of Taiwan's population think that they are ONLY Taiwanese, more than the 39 percent that think they are both.
The research was done this year.
Richard C. Bush III: Good point, but I think the responses depend on the external environment. The Taiwan identity may be stronger in an election. The important point is that a Taiwan identity is not mutually exclusive with a Chinese identity. BEijing's actions can affect the balance.
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Charlottesville, Va.:
What do you think is the best way to solve the core issue at stake here -- the conflict between the independence/reunification of Taiwan? And how would you handle the fallout that would occur from the "losing" side?
Richard C. Bush III: I think the best way to begin to solve the core issue is for Beijing and Taipei to talk. That requires Beijing to set aside preconditions.
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Richmond, Ky.:
Do you think Taiwan as a true democracy? Has this election affected the image mentioned above?
Richard C. Bush III: I think Taiwan is a true democracy. But it is a democratic system that needs consolidation. No democratic system is perfect. New democratic systems need work.
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Richard C. Bush III: Dear Friends:
I have to close out now, but I appreciate your many fine questions.
Best regards!
Richard Bush
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