Pennsylvania GOP Senate Primary
Jerome Maddox
University of Pennsylvania
Tuesday, April 27, 2004; 2:00 p.m ET
Voters throughout Pennsylvania cast ballots in a closely contested Republican Senate primary race between Sen. Arlen Specter and Rep. Pat Toomey. Toomey, a junior congressman with traditionally conservative stands, has moved up surprisingly in recent state polls against the moderate four term Specter.
Jerome Maddox, Assistant Professor at University of Pennsylvania discussed the Pennsylvania GOP Senate primary, the candidates and Pennsylvania politics.
The transcript follows.
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Iowa:
What sort of turnout is being reported and which candidate does the turnout help?
Jerome Maddox: So far, reports indicate very low turnout. With the presidential primary essentailly meaningless, there has been little effort to get voters out for that primary. There is not a gubernatorial primary either, so this race really is the headliner. I think that low turnout helps Toomey. He can be fairly confident that his more ideological base will turn out, though this base is probably smaller in numbers. Specter depends on moderate voters to turn out; if they aren't mobilized or excited by the election and stay home, he may be in trouble.
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San Diego, Calif.:
How does this primary race bode for the general election? Which emergent winer would the Democratic candidate fare better against?
Jerome Maddox: Most observers see Specter winning the general election against Rep. Joe Hoeffel. In the general election, Specter can take advantage of his strong support in metro Philadelphia from Democratic and Independent voters, weakening the Democrat substantially. He will also win the Republican voters and conservatives in the general election.
If Toomey wins, it is likely to be a very close election, with perhaps a slight edge to Hoeffel. The election of a Democratic governor (Rendell) and the success of Clinton and Gore from 1992-2002 suggest a slight advantage to Hoeffel against Toomey. That said, it would be one of the closer and more closely watched congressional elections in the country.
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Jerome Maddox: I realized that I neglected to welcome everyone to the chat. Thanks for coming and I hope that I get to answer lots of questions.
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Madison, Wis.:
Is the GOP primary a religious or economic philosophical batttle? Is Specter vulnerable because of his fiscal or social voting record? or both?
Jerome Maddox: Good question. Toomey has been hammering Specter on his voting record on both economic and social philosophy fronts. A lot of his campaign focuses on "pork" spending programs and Specter's willingness to compromise on spending. There has also been some discussion of abortion and other social policy. Pennsylvania has a history of closely regulating/restricting abortion rights, so this issue can be really important. Toomey also has been campaigning in central Pennsylvania with leaders of conservative religious groups.
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Carbondale, Pa.:
If Toomey ends up defeating Specter, which from recent polls looks as likely as not, what are his chances of winning the general election? Hostility toward Bush will bring out a lot of Democrats in November and I cant's see Toomey getting enough votes in such liberal/moderate/union areas as Philly, Pittsburgh, and Scranton/Wilkes-Barre to pull it out. Then again we did elect Santorum twice so who knows.
Jerome Maddox: Good question. You are correct that PA elections often pit urban areas against suburban and rural areas. In particular, people usually point to Philadelphia and Pittsburgh as Democratic strongholds with the rest of the state strongly Republican. The problem for Democrats has been that urban voters turn out at low rates, especially in comparison to very conservative voters mobilized by conservative candidates and interest groups. As a result, Democrats have struggled in statewide elections until the last decade or so. That said, it does appear that some of the suburban areas around Philly and Pittsburgh are trending Democratic. These are the liberal-moderate Republicans who have sustained Specter for years. In the end, I really do see it as a coin toss (assuming no spectacularly good or bad events in foreign policy).
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Arlington, Va.:
Although Senator Santorum is supporting Spector in public, is there any indication that he and his followers are working for Toomey who would seem to represent most of the views that Santorum holds?
Jerome Maddox: Good question. There are definitely interest groups that support Santorum strongly who are supporting Toomey. I don't get the sense that Santorum is dissuading them, though I don't have any evidence.
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Boston, Mass.:
From someone looking from outside, it would seem that any moderate Republican in Congress can be under-fire from the right-wing of the party. If Toomey wins this primary, what are your thoughts on how the general election will turn out? If Spector wins, will Toomey's supporters sit out in November?
Jerome Maddox: Hey, my hometown. I think that the problem faced by moderates of both parties is that ideologues can fire up the wings in the party for challenges in the primary. Given the low level turnout across the electorate, this can be a real challenge. Incumbents do have the advantage of attracting far more money- as interest groups and PACs tend to concentrate their contributios on likely winners. As in this case, party leaders also tend to like to protect the incumbent because there is a higher probability of retaining the seat if you run an incumbent. Also, incumbents often scare away good challengers where they have won by large margin previously. This deterrence factor is weaker in senatorial elections, though. So yes, it is a problem in theory, but not often in practice.
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Acworth, Ga.:
Supposing Toomey wins the primary, do you think a Specter endorsement of Toomey would help deliver the 'moderates' to Toomey? Would this endorsement be likely?
Jerome Maddox: Very good question. Yes, I do think the endorsement would help. Toomey is very conservative- given Specter's individualistic streak and willingness to act on principle rather than party interest, an endorsement would be a strong signal to his supporters. I don't know if Specter would endorse him.
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Washington, D.C.:
Specter is an established incumbent. To what degree do you think his standing would be less if he were a one-term senator? (I'm trying to figure out if Specter's standing is based more on his political positions on issues, or his long-standing service to the state.)
Jerome Maddox: I think that Specter would be in more trouble if he were a freshman. He's established a long record of service and a reputation (positive or negative, depending on whom you ask) for protecting PA interests that is valuable. Without that backgroud, he might have an especially hard time running in the PA Republican primary.
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Philadelphia, Pa.:
The AFL-CIO actively recruited Democrats to switch to the Republican Party to vote for Specter in this primary. Is there any indication how successful this was? I read Dr. Terry Madonna's analysis that this did not go as well as the unions wanted. Further, there were some fears that this might encourage conservatives to work harder for Toomey if they thought Democrats were trying to swing this primary to Specter. Do you have any sense if party switching is having any impact, direct or indirect, on this race?
Jerome Maddox: From what I have seen and heard, these party switching efforts have not been effective and really did not ddo much for either side. However, I think an interesting question is to see the degree of party switching from Republican to Democrat or Independent) that has occurred in recent years in the Philly suburbs. Specter desperately needs these liberal-moderate old-fashioned Republicans for the primary. If they are not voting in Republican primaries, he's in trouble. There clearly has been a shift, but the size of that shift is not yet known.
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Harrisburg, Pa.:
Our local newspaper tells us that central Pennsylvania is the most Republican region of the country. Yet, our Congressman, Tim Holden, is a Democrat. Does that mean that Democrats are potentially competitive anywhere in the country? In fact, are both parties potentially competitive most anywhere?
Jerome Maddox: Good question. One thing to remember about the political cparties in the US is that they are decentralized and let candidates position themselves according to their preferences and political needs- national party platforms are not binding. This means that in conservative areas, Democrats can run as conservatives (think about lots of southern Democrats- OK, some of the remaining southern Democrats) and in liberal areas Republicans can run more like liberals (i.e. Olympia Snowe). This flexibility allows parties to be competitive (potentially) anywhere. Also, elections are also about turnout- low numbers but high turnout can win elections.
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Roseland, N.J.:
We've heard media reports that if Toomey wins, Rendell will really throw himself into the Senate race in support of the Democratic candidate.
How much could that sway the race? Does Rendell have transferrable popularity in the state right now? How formidable is his organization?
Jerome Maddox: Rendell has a substantial organization that would help Hoeffel. Rendell did well in many of the smaller cities across the state that often lean Republican. That said, his popularity has declined substantially in the last year. His approval ratings are fairly low at the moment. His greatest value would be in stimulating turnout in Philadelphia. Voters here love him and he's great at getting peope to the polls.
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Harrisburg, Pa.:
Do you see much connection between the U.S. Senate race and the Attorney General's race? The Attorney General's race has become vicicous with both sides running ads practically calling the other side crooks. There are those that feel that if Toomey and Bruce Castor, the unendorsed candidate for Attorney General, both win, there will be a major push within the Republican Party for conservative leadership to drive out the established leadership. Do you see the conservatives being able to pull this off, and does the White House fear this?
Jerome Maddox: The Attorney General's race is BRUTAL. I do think that conservatives want more power over the state party. I think their ability to take control depends on the outcome of the elections. If Castor and Toomey win the primary and general election- watch out. If they win the primary and lose in the general election, the conservative will have less ground for asserting leadership. The bottom line is that people want to win elections- if the conservatives can deliver elections, they can get control.
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Negative Campaigning:
Given Toomey's rise in the polls, I assume that his attacks on Specter are working, i.e., too liberal, etc.
How are Specter's negative attacks working on Toomey's popularity: his ownership of a bar, his parents living in Rhode Island.
Jerome Maddox: I would assume that they aren't doing much, as Specter's numbers keep sliding. Of course, maybe they would be falling even faster.
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Tempe, Ariz.:
Doesn't the fact that the Club for Growth is doing as well as they are say something about Sen. Spector's standing in his state GOP party? He's the senior senator after all. The Club for Growth said they were going to run against McCain too and they come down here and got nothing. What they got is their head handed to them is what they got. McCain has his spats with the GOP leadership here but basically he's got their respect, meaning some in the party leadership kinda wanted it to be rid of him but few dared say it. Plus the voters. We love him here so that's just the way it is.
Jerome Maddox: There is definitely longstanding, simmering conservative opposition to Specter here. Specter's voting record is too moderate to satisfy the rather strong conservative base. Especially in the context of low turnout, the conservative wing of the party clearly sees a big opportunity here. Specter definitely does not generate the kind of loyalty or admiration that one might expect for a senator of his seniority.
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New Jersey:
What can you tell us about Mr. Hoeffel, the Democrat? Moderate? Liberal? Urban? Rural? What are his strengths and weaknesses?
Jerome Maddox: Hoeffel is in his third term representing a district that is in suburban Philadelphia. He has a reputation as a moderate, most likely as a result of building a career in an area that has long leaned Republican. It's not clear that he has much of a base for a statewide campaign. He hasn't held office statewide previously, so he's going to have to really work to get support in central PA. His best asset is that he's shown an ability to win elections in suburban areas and has a reasonably moderate record. OK, one more question.
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Suburban Voters:
I found it illuminating that Toomey has concentrated his effort on the central part of the Keystone State.
Specter could have a big lead when the urban areas of Philadelphia and Pittsburgh are counted only to see it evaporated when the middle of the state with its pro-life, pro-gun activists take control
Jerome Maddox: Well, the old joke in PA political circles is:
"What's between Philadelphia and Pittsburgh?"
"Mississippi."
Toomey (and Specter to a lesser degree) is following the traditional strategy in the state. Watch the turnout number in Philadelphia, Allegheny, Lancaster, and Berks counties tonight.
I have to get back to grading papers and doing some writing. Thanks a lot.
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