Instant Analysis: New Hampshire Primary
Robert G. Kaiser
Washington Post Associate Editor
Tuesday, January 27, 2004; 8:00 p.m ET
Sen. John F. Kerry of Massachusetts won the New Hampshire primary tonight, defeating former Vermont governor Howard Dean by a wide margin.
Washington Post Associate Editor Robert G. Kaiser was online for Instant Analysis of the New Hampshire primary.
The transcript follows.
Editor's Note: washingtonpost.com moderators retain editorial control
over Live Online discussions and choose the most relevant questions for guests and hosts; guests and hosts can decline to answer questions.
Robert G. Kaiser: Good evening. We're here to discuss the New Hampshire primary result, and we'll stay as long as you have questions and I have energy to continue.
The polls have just closed. The exit polls of voters after they cast ballots show Kerry beating Dean but not by much. And I have lived through a lot of New Hampshire primaries when the exit polls were misleading. Four years ago we had Bill BRadley ahead of Al Gore in the early exit polls. So wait for the real votes to be counted!
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Dunn Loring, Va.:
Why do we pay so much attention to such small and unrepresentative states as Iowa and New Hampshire with such small delegate counts? It seems that we collectively lose our perspective about this.
Robert G. Kaiser: We pay attention of course because they are first, and because, in my view, they do tell us how real people respond personally to the candidates. The advantages of Iowa and New Hampshire are also the disadvantages; they are small, and caucus goers in Iowa and voters in NH expect to have personal meetings with, and a personal sense, of the candidates. In later states voters will see TV commercials, but not candidates. So these two give us a special sort of view.
That said, neither state can pick the ultimate winner. This will not end for some weeks now.
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washingtonpost.com:
Latest Results
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Washington:
Hi, Mr. Kaiser. Do you think Kucinich has a shot? If not for president, then vice president on a Leiberman-Kucinich ticket?
Robert G. Kaiser: I do not think he has a shot at either place on the ticket.
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Vinton, Va.:
Will the "scream" fade into the background during upcoming primaries?
Will Clark and Edwards do better in the south?
Can Kerry keep his lead in the south?
Robert G. Kaiser: Thanks for expressing questions that are obviously on many minds. I can't answer them any better than you can. It looks to me as though Dean has survived the first week after the scream; he isn't far behind Kerry, maybe five points or less, maybe a little more. (Don't put too much faith in these exit poll numbers--I shouldn't use them, I just can't help myself.) Edwards will, I'm sure, do better in the south; Clark I'm not sure. If Clark comes in a distant third or fourth tonight,a fter the effort he made in NH, will he really be much of a factor later? I just don't know.
Of course Kerry could keep his lead in the South, but just as certainly, this is far from the only possibility.
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New Carrollton, Md.:
What would a third place finish mean for a candidate like Wesley Clark? Considering he skipped the Iowa caucuses, he is really behind in the delegate count? How could he make up the lost ground?
Robert G. Kaiser: The delegate count after tonight is meaningless, really, because Iowa and New Hampshire are so small, and have so few delegates. Clark I think has to win somewhere, and soon, to become a real factor.
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Berkeley, Calif.:
Looking at the results, does Lieberman have any chance from here on out? Did he ever have a chance? Why did his campaign never really catch fire?
If he drops out, do you think he'd be a front-runner for the Democratic VP nomination, or would that simply bring up too many memories of 2000?
Robert G. Kaiser: What might have been is never knowable, is it. Lieberman's campaign never went anywhere. He started out way ahead, based primarily I think on name recognition and his status as VP candidate last time, but he never built on that at all. On the contrary, his standing in the polls just went down, and his fund raising was never very impressive.
I think we can be confident that he will not be selected as VP candidate by whomever wins this nomination. Whichof them would want to be known as making the same choice Al Gore did?
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Bangor, Maine:
Thank you for your time, Mr. Kaiser. I think that this is Howard Dean's high point. This is because, as other candidates drop out, their supporters will not break for Dean. For example, one recent poll had 10% of Oaklahomans voting for Lieberman. If Lieberman drops out after NH, his supporters certainly won't support Dean. Do you agree with this analysis?
Robert G. Kaiser: Interesting question. I don't know if I agree or not. You're pesuming a pretty static situation, in which voters in the Feb. 3 states, and later ones, already have clear views of these guys and know whom they like. I guess I doubt that, but I certainly don't know. This kind of a contest makes me think of the old Yogi-ism, it ain't over 'til it's over.
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Bethesda, Md.:
What are the chances that a Kerry/Edwards ticket can beat Bush? Do you think that ticket could happen?
Robert G. Kaiser: Sure this ticket could happen. It's conceivable to me that Edwards/Kerry could happen, too, though less likely. I think any fair-minded analysis of the political situation broadly has to conclude that Bush is beatable--not that he will be beaten, but that he can be beaten. The economy is uneven, and uncertain. Iraq is a mess, and could get much worse--or much better. In polls, Bush barely beats an unnamed Democratic opponent, or actually loses to that Democrat. So we will have a real election campaign and, I think today, a pretty close result.
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Washington, D.C.:
As the primaries continues on, is defeating George Bush the most important characteristic for the the democrat nominee to have, regardless of what their policies on health care, the economy, etc. might be?
Robert G. Kaiser: As many of the commentators have been writing in recent days, Democrats in New Hampshire, at least, put beating Bush ahead of everything else. And the various candidates don't disagree on many specifics other than Iraq.
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Hinesburg, Vt.:
Who would be a stronger candidate in the general
election, do you think: Kerry or Lieberman?
I know that Lieberman will not likely win the
nomination, but I mention him because his centrist
position in the political arena might win votes
among disenfranchised republicans who feel that
Bush has led this country too far to the right. What
is more to the point given what looks like Kerry's
soon-to-be democratic nomination is this: is Kerry
just too far to the left and if he comes more to the
center in the general election, will that be enough
for him to sway (critical) votes from the center
(who may have voted for Bush the 1st time
around)?
Robert G. Kaiser: Good questions. I think LIeberman's theoretical electability is tarnished by the fact that he can't win -- if he can't -- any of these primaries. Losers don't turn into winners in American politics, in my experience.
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San Jose, Calif.:
Do you see any candidates dropping out of the race after a poor showing today?
Robert G. Kaiser: There may not be any dropouts this week. There will be after next Tuesday, I'd bet. But I never bet much!
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Toledo, Ohio:
Doesn't losing both NW and Iowa doom Dean? 13 out 14 nominees have won at least one of these critical first states.
Robert G. Kaiser: Maybe, but I don't believe in historical determinism, and I have never seen a year like this one.
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Washington, D.C.:
In the recent past, has any Democratic candidate lost the first position in Iowa and New Hampshire but won the nomination.
Robert G. Kaiser: Bill Clinton did not run against Tom Harkin in Iowa in '92, and came in second to Paul Tsongas in NH. In fact, none of these results from the past "prove" anything about the future.
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New Milford, Conn.:
It makes sense to emphasis results in Iowa and New Hampshire, two states with close general election results in 2000, but why should we focus on upcoming South Carolina primary where the Democratic candidate has virtually no chance this November.
Robert G. Kaiser: South Carolina is interesting because half or more the Democratic electorate there is black. But Missouri and Arizona are the Feb. 3 states that will interest me most, I think.
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Richmond, Va.:
Mr. Kaiser,
Thanks for doing this chat. I know how loath you are to making predictions, so I won't ask you for one. But I do have a question you might choose to tackle. If you were a pragmatic Democrat looking for the candidate with the best chance of beating Bush in November, who would you pick? I've given it a lot of thought and keep coming back to Kerry.
Robert G. Kaiser: You're obviously making some big assumptions that I am loathe to make with you. How well will Kerry survive scrutiny of his record? He is not a popular member of the Senate, and he does not have a long record of legislative accomplishment; I expect we'll be reading lots of critical stories about Kerry and his record in days ahead. Will he survive such scrutiny, or thrive under it? I have no idea. Let's see how all this plays out.
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Philadelphia, Pa.:
Is it possible for Kerry to offer VP to Edwards and have the two of them campaign together over the next few weeks?
Robert G. Kaiser: No, this won't happen in the next few weeks.
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Nashville, Tenn.:
Do you think any of these candidates actually have a shot at beating Bush? I mean, I really hope one does, but what are the most important issues to hit Bush on in order to beat him?
Robert G. Kaiser: I think I answered this earlier. In the context of recent history, Bush is not a very popular incumbent. More people like him personally and respect him as a wartime leader than support his policies. He is certainly vulnerable. Which doesn't mean he won't win.
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Falls Church, Va.:
Hello, Mr. Kaiser. I'm guessing from your
photo that you are about my age (but I'm
not telling). Way back when, I remember
sitting up until the wee, wee hours with
my parents as election results trickled in.
Sometimes we wouldn't know until the
next day who won and who lost. I'm a
24-7 news junkie with the best of them,
but when it comes to presidential
elections, I miss the experience of my
childhood, of thoughtful and deliberative
decision making in choosing our national
leader. Do you?
Robert G. Kaiser: I am 60, and I miss a few things from my youth seriously. Among them: 1) my youth 2)the Washington Senators 3) Chuck Berry and Little Richard. But going to bed without knowing the result of a presidential election (and I remember doing that in 1952)is not one of them.
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Washington, D.C.:
I am a political analyst from Eastern Europe and this is my first encounter in person with the procedure of presidential candidates selection by primaries or caucases. My question is more general than the New Hampshire primary toight. How does all this contribute to the U.S. political process, arguably the symbol of democracy in the world. Isn't it too expensive and energy consuming for the candidates to present a strong challenge for the "real" elections in November?
Robert G. Kaiser: You're on to something! We have a ridiculous system now. It costs much too much money, it takes too long, it is unfair in a million ways, and it contributes I'm sure to the fact that barely half the eligible Americans take part in our elections.
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Melbourne, Australia:
Hi Mr. Kaiser,
I've been watching this contest with some interest from Australia.
I am curious to know does the winner of each primary/caucus take all delegates from that state to the national confernece or is there a proportional division according to votes received?
Robert G. Kaiser: My memory says that different states have different rules, but most are winner-take-all. But some expert out there will straighten me out if I'm wrong...
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Sterling, Va.:
What are the chances Bill Richardson will get the nod for VP?
Robert G. Kaiser: More than none.
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Philadelphia, Pa.:
It seems only last month that four out of five pundits, journalists, commentators and columnist said Dean could not be stopped. Now the same group will say Kerry is unbeatable. At what point does the outcome become reasonable predictable? After tonight? After next week? March?
Robert G. Kaiser: The key word in your question is "resaonably." The fact that it remains unpredictable tonight won't stop lots of the punits from telling us who is certain to win. Sometime before March 10 we will know; more than that I cannot say.
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Washington, D.C.:
Will Clark voters go for Dean if their man drops out? If so, that would put Dean even with Kerry. What about Lieberman folks?
And c'mon, give us a real answer. We KNOW you don't know, but there must be some reason you are the guy taking these questions!
Robert G. Kaiser: I think I'm a one-man coalition of the willing. That's probably the only reason I'm takin gthe questions.
But yours is a good one, beause it reminds me of the one thing I think I have learned from covering elections since 1968. Voters are funny. No two voters think exactly the same way. People who up to tonight thought they were, say, for Lieberman will perhaps decide tomorrow that they are for Kerry, or Edwards, or the man in the moon. There is just no knowing. Logic most assuredly will not lead you to the right prediction.
I do think "electability" is important to a lot of Democrats this year. But your guess about who is ultimately electable is as good as mine or anyone else's. Ultimate electability will probably depend on factors we know nothing about tonight.
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Washington, D.C.:
Results from Dixville Notch were reported early today on the front page of the Post online. While the vote count was only about 36 votes total it did amount to more than 1 percent of all New Hampshire voters. In other words, it was a significant sample of voters, assuming it was also representative.
These results favored Kerry who has gotten a boost in the press. Compare Newsweek's headline "Doubting Dean" with "Bring it On" for Kerry. Was The Post favoring Kerry, too, by publishing these positive results before most others went to the polls? How do you explain this report?
Robert G. Kaiser: Whoa. You think a news item on washingtonpost.com changed votes in New Hampshire? I doubt it. That item was on the front page because it was...news! The only news available at that time of the morning.
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Baltimore, Md.:
Why do people (and reporters too) think
that the winning primary candidate might
choose one of the losers as his VP? Has
that ever happened?
Robert G. Kaiser: JFK picked LBJ, and it got him elected. Reagan picked Bush the Elder. I can't think of other examples.
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Philadelphia, Pa.:
Mr. Kaiser, Thanks for doing Live Online. If they finish fifth and sixth, will Lieberman or Kucinich drop out and make the field smaller and let the people choose betweent he candidates who have a chance.
Robert G. Kaiser: I doubt it.
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Portland, Oregon:
Isn't Dean getting a bum rap on the Iowa speach? It appears the media cannot handle someone who shows emotion.
Robert G. Kaiser: You know, different people react very differently to events of that kind. I am persuaded that a lot of Americans thought Dean made a big mistake that night. But remember, he had just come in a miserable third in a race he was supposed to win, according to polls. That probably hurt his ultimate chances more than the screaming.
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Washington, D.C.:
It seems like it will be curtains for Dean if he doesn't win, second won't do it. What is your opinion ?
Robert G. Kaiser: I think he remains alive for another week, at the very least.
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Chapel Hill, N.C.:
If Edwards come in third, does he have a real chance to go on to win the nomination?
Robert G. Kaiser: I think he might, but he has to win South Carolina and , I would think, somewhere else too in the next round.
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Boston, Mass..:
Paul Tsongas won South Carolina in 1992 by a wide margin -- does this bode well for Kerry down there? Thank you.
Robert G. Kaiser: Well, it suggests that South Carolina won't gote against Kerry on the grounds that he comes from the wrong state. But I'm not sure it means any more than that.
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Hayward, Calif.:
If Kerry wins the Democratic nomination, who do you think will he choose for his running mate? Would Edwards be a good choice?
Robert G. Kaiser: So far, Edwards strikes me as the one new star of the Democratic firmament. How big a star? To what end? Stay tuned...
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Ames, Iowa:
Do you think that the media is so much against
Howard Dean because they are owned by the big corporations who would lose if this sort of campaigns built on $100 a little person succeeds? Some of the language used by reporters seems to indicate a downright get-him-at-all-costs. Kurtz article this morning as per the exit poll questionnaire is very indicative. Why include a question on Howard Dean's temperament in an exit poll? There are so many other burning questions of the day (the National Election Pool's explanation) that could also be included.
Robert G. Kaiser: Howie did a service by pointing out that ridiculous question, but there is no conspiracy in the big media against Dean. Dean was the big phenomenon of this election. He naturally attracted a lot of attention. He didn't handle it very well. I think that's his problem.
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Boulder, Colo.:
Some pundits have suggested that Kerry has yet to show he can take a blow, and that his events have consisted largely of his endorsers speaking, without him doing a great job of connecting personally with the voters, whereas John Edwards has been making an overwhelming impression on those who meet him, much as Bill Clinton did. Does that seem right to you, or just hype? And if Edwards does surge past Kerry, do you think the country would vote for a single-term Senator so inexperienced in politics? Given Edwards "only positive" campaign so far, could he cope with the sort of assaultive, dirty, campaign opposition such as that Bush displayed last time in South Carolina against McCain?
Robert G. Kaiser: thanks for posting. I can't answer hypothetials about the future. But the country has repeatedly elected presidents with limited experience--including our current president. It can certainly happen again.
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Columbia, Mo.:
How actively are the candidates courting Richard Gephardt's support for the Missouri primary? Does anyone appear to have an advantage?
Robert G. Kaiser: I'm sure the courtship is active, and I don't know how it's going. Gephardt's sudden disappearance from the race must create a kind of political vacuum in Missouri.
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Reston, Va.:
On balance to the questioner from Eastern Europe, the US federal government has spends about $4 trillion every congressional cycle through government, but easily less than a $1 billion on federal election campaigns each two years. So maybe campaigns are actually under-funded compared to the magnitude of the dollars that our 435 congressmen/women, 100 senators, and 1 president spend.
Robert G. Kaiser: thanks
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Brooklyn, N.Y.:
Is electability the real reason that Kerrey has done so
well? Or is there something else going on in his
campaign that would account for it. If it is electability
that's the issue, what does it say for the media that
they thought Dean was shoo-in for the nomination
and I guess made the assumption that he would be
seen as electable by the voters. In other words, is
there a Dean bias in the media?
Robert G. Kaiser: Look at Richard Cohen's column in today's post for a good explanation of how Kerry turned things around. Maybe my colleagues at washingtonpost.com can give you a link to the column.
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Ames, Iowa:
Hi Mr Kaiser,
It's been said that this is a make or break situation for the Democrats -- if they don't win the White House then the Republicans will be able to make some long-lasting changes to the way this country runs (looking at the majority the Republicans have in both the House and the Senate). Do think this view is accurate?
Robert G. Kaiser: I don't. The pendulum works in American political life. How fast it swings back is nver predictable, but it will swing back.
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Seattle, Wash.:
How do the turnout in NH and the anti-Bush fervor
people are openly expressing bode, in your opinion, for
the general election? To me, it is a vast contrast with
the complacency of 2000 among many Democrats and
Independents
Robert G. Kaiser: I do think the emotions are higher on the Democratic side this year.
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Altoona, Pa.:
Looking ahead to the general election: why is it that the Democratic Party is tabbed by media types as having a southern problem (fair enough) yet the Republican Party isn't tabbed as having a Northeastern problem or a West Coast problem? Seems to me that the Republicans have a much smaller margin for error in their electoral vote calculus; lose either Florida or Texas and they have no hope, whereas the Democrats have quite a few ways of building from their base CA/NY/MA to get to 270. Not that I expect that Texas is going to break Democratic in this election (!), but still, the Republican Party seems more deserving of the label "regional party" than the Democrats...
Robert G. Kaiser: Interesting point. It is hard if you start out every time with no chance of winning New York or California, and that seems to be where the Republicans are. Might the new governor of California change that? Maybe, but I don't expect it.
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Philadelphia, Pa.:
Howard Dean has clearly gained a large following in the past months, whether or not he finishes first in Iowa or New Hampshire. Yet, based on the constant attacks from other candidates, it seems that he could never be considered as a VP on a ticket, even though he has an enormous number of supporters. Is this just remnants of his intial front-runner status, or is Dean really incompatible with the other candidates? Does ruling Dean out as a potential VP cost the Democrats a lot of support they could use in the general election?
Robert G. Kaiser: Good questions. The Dean people are, in many cases, new to politics. Will they be terminally discouraged if their man doesn't win? Don't know.
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New York, N.Y.:
Dear Mr. Kaiser:
Excellent analyses thusfar.
What would John Edwards have to do to win
the Democratic nomination? Is it all just a
counting of delegate votes, or is there more
to the race than that?
Thanks
Robert G. Kaiser: It's winning states that matters now. If Dean can win two or three states next week, he'll be in the race.
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Boston, Mass.:
Are there any states next week that Dean has a chance to take and rebound?
Robert G. Kaiser: sure
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washingtonpost.com:
Richard Cohen: . . . and a Comer Close Behind (Post, Jan. 27)
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Washington, D.C.:
Mr. Kaiser, as the fourth arm of government, how would you rate the performance of the media during this primary season?
Robert G. Kaiser: Thanks for giving me the opportunity to say that "the media" is a club neither I nor any of my colleagues at The Post ever applied to join. We work, proudly, for The Washington Post, which has, once again, covered national politics with great distinction last year and this, in my insufficiently independent opinion. Television now does a poor job on politics year round. many papers around the country don't pay enough attention to political coverage. Commercial radio has died. NPR is doing a fine job. Etc Etc. "The media" is a catchall that doesn't really catch the reality of the news business.
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Laurel, Md.:
How would campaigning be different, for better or for worse, if each Tuesday for 13 weeks in a row there was one state primary in each of the four regions of the country (West, Northeast, Midwest, South), starting with the smallest states?
Robert G. Kaiser: well, Dan Balz would be hospitalized, for one thing. David Broder also. Even I would be pooped!
Seriously, this just isn't going to happen.
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Boulder, Colo.:
Many commentators have suggested various reasons Kerry and Edwards surged in Iowa and in the past week, particularly that their re-tooled stump speeches were vastly improved, whereas, among better-known factors, Dean stuck to his tired speech, which was that of the insurgent he no longer, pre-Iowa, was, rather than that of the front-runner he temporarily was.
Others feel that the Deaniacs, Dean's campaign workers, were too insular, inexperienced, and inward-looking, to be persuasive in the complex Iowa caucus system, and to them, foreign Iowa culture.
I've read the blogs of a number of ordinary Iowa and New Hampshire voters who said clearly they were annoyed and turned-off by overly-aggressive Dean supporters.
Do any of these criticisms seem accurate to you? Or inaccurate? If so, could you discuss them briefly?
Robert G. Kaiser: They all seem pretty good to me. My personal theory about Dean was that in the beginning, many commentators missed the point about him that mattered: people who hadn't previously felt the urge to support any politician really responded to Howard Dean. I thought he showed real political creativity last year, and grew steadily through the spring and summer. I actually said to several friends, if this guy can keep growing month by month as he has so far, he could be really formidable.
But sometime late last year, it seemed to me, he stopped growing. He stopped surprising me, anyway. He did seem to get stuck in a rut. And our reporters picked up the growing dispaleasure in Iowa, where he really did poorly in the caucus before his famous scream speech.
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Silver Spring, Md.:
Bob: Four of the six candidates who have a serious change of being our next President graduated from Yale between 1964(Lieberman) and 1971 (Dean, with Kerry 1966 and Bush 1968). The odds against this being a coincidence would be astronomical. As a Yale graduate yourself, how do you account for this? Paul Manchester Yale '64
(Hopefully this question isn't too parochial.)
Robert G. Kaiser: My classmate Paul Manchester is a great Yale patriot. I've thought a lot about this question, and I can't answer it, except in terms anthropology. Who goes to Yale? Ambitious, upwardly mobile people like Joe Lieberman, whose father ran a liquor store, and who knew already when he arrived as a freshman in New Haven in September, 1960, that he wanted a career in politics, and the rich sons of Yale families, like George w. Bush, who, by his own admission, had no idea what he wanted to be when he was at Yale. Kerry and Dean were in the priveleged group, relatively speaking, but I don't know as much about their outlook as undergraduates.
I really do think the fact that there are four Yalies of that era in this race is mostly a coincidence. As you remember, Paul, our class certainly wasn't very political. Nixon easily beat Kennedy in a campus poll in 1960, too--that Yale was heavily Republican.
Maybe other classmates out there can clear this up for us? Paul Steiger, the managing editor of the Wall Street Journal, might pipe up now...
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Castro Valley, Calif.:
Is Edwards getting some subtle but consistent help from the press? I see reports about conservative republicans worrying most about him than the others. Reports that his charm is proving more powerful than large organizations in Iowa and New Hampshire. Don't get me wrong, I support him, but I sense a slight press bias towards him. Do you?
Robert G. Kaiser: Maybe. Edwards is the darling of the press this week. Look at David Brooks' column in the NY Times today--a conservative Edwards fan. Interesting.
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Austin, Tex.:
It's now looking like Kerry may beat Dean by something like 15 percent. That sounds bad for Dean. No?
Robert G. Kaiser: The bigger the margin, the better for Kerry and worse for Dean, I would agree.
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Milwaukee, Wis.:
Mr. Kaiser, why hasn't John Kerry's oppposition to the first Gulf War been chewed on by pundits? Isn't this likely to become a favorite Republican angle of attack next November should Kerry go on to be the nominee?
Robert G. Kaiser: I think there is a lot in Kerry's record that we'll be hearing about in days and weeks ahead.
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Austin, Tex.:
Can't do anything about your youth, hair, or the
Washington Senators, but I wanted to let you know
that both Chuck Berry and Little Richard are alive,
well and performing. Little Richard will be the
keynote speaker at the SXSW music festival here in
March. Wasn't Chuck camapigning for fellow
Missourian Gephardt?
Robert G. Kaiser: Yes, I've seen them both in recent times, and I have to say that they, like I, are not what we were...
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Middleburg, Va.:
With all due respect to your obvious Democratic leanings are you at all concerned about at least appearing neutral in this forum? George W Bush was NO LESS experienced than the Dems' Clinton. Both were governors of southern states except one had only government experience on his resume.
Robert G. Kaiser: What leanings are you talking about, I wonder? Bush's one term as the weakest governor in America, literally, is not the same sort of experience Bill CLinton, a career politician for many years when he ran for President, brought with him.
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Charlottesville, Va.:
Apart from the men competing in the primary, can you think of any other names that might come forward for VP candidates?
Robert G. Kaiser: Bill Richardson has been mentioned here already. He's the governor of New Mexico, a native speaker of Spanish, a former Secretary of Energy and Ambassador to the United Nations, and a politician that people seem to like.
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Atlanta, Ga.:
It seems to me the media grew bored with Dean as frontrunner and began looking for any semblance of a "gaffe" in the weeks leading up to Iowa. This came to a head with coverage of Dean's infamous "scream" in Iowa, which was admittedly a sign of poor judgment by the candidate but has been blown way out of proportion. Has the media been unfair to Dean and played a disproportionate role in his downfall?
Robert G. Kaiser: You mean, it's the media's fault! No, I don't think so.
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Ashburn, Va.:
Mr. Kaiser:
I'd note that those of us old enough to remember 2000 went to bed without knowing who would be president!
And the Democrats--unlike the Republicans--use a version of proportional representation. Candidates who get above a 15% floor get delegates. They changed the rules after Jesse Jackson got very few delegates even though he came in second or third in a lot of states in 1984.
Robert G. Kaiser: You're right about 2000. No one else has tken the bait on the proportional representation issue, so we'll go with your version for now... Thanks.
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Montpelier, Vt.:
Hi --
Thanks for your time. So somehow we switch from who's raising the most money, endorsements and from whom to how many votes in relatively small states (Iowa and New Hampshire).
I was glad to see not nearly as many exit polls this year (remember the Gore/Bush debacle, with major stations reversing themselves, sometimes within minutes).
Historically, is it more about the money and the organization or more about the primary vote accumulation? How much does either thing weigh?
Robert G. Kaiser: Money and organization is only important if it produces delgates, and primary votes is the best way to do that.
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Reno, NV.:
Hey, more than a few of our Presidents-and would be presidents- picked former rivals for VP.
FDR picked Cactus Jack Garner.
Warren Harding picked Coolidge.
Landon picked Knox.
John W. Davis went with Charles Bryan.
Robert G. Kaiser: Great list! Thanks.
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Washington, D.C.:
Kerry is the number one vote getter tonight, but who are the REAL winners?
Robert G. Kaiser: Kerry.
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Mountain View, Calif.:
My opinion: So long as the candidates continue being mostly polite to each other, it may be a good thing for the Democrats if this race goes on for a while. Every time there's a primary or debate, there's a lot of free publicity for their views. Do you agree?
Robert G. Kaiser: The Dems have been helping themselves in recent days, I do agree with you.
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Detroit, Mich.:
Clark has really surprised me. He doesn't come across as having a lot of credibility in his discourse with the public. He actually looks wimpy. I would never have thought I would have thought that given his credentials. What are your thoughts about Clark?
Robert G. Kaiser: You know, politics is HARD. Amateurs who think it's easy have a pretty bad record, once they try it. Clark has made countless mistakes that I would attribute to his lack of political experience. It's fashionable in America to make fun of politicians and consider them clowns, but good ones are, in my experience, really talented people. Perhaps Clark has learned this himself...
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Chapel Hill, N.C.:
Hi Mr. Kaiser, thanks for the chat.
Do you think Kerry can begin to campaign against Bush now? Or must he continue to parry his rivals for the most part?
I'd like to add the comment that the competitive Democratic race is good for the party--it shows the country the diversity of the party, and prevents Bush from focusing his barbs on any one person, yet.
Robert G. Kaiser: Thanks. Kerry can't claim the nomination yet.
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Los Angeles, Calif.:
Mr. Kaiser,
Earlier you stated that you thought the Arizona and Missouri primaries would be particularly interesting (implying that they would be more interesting than South Carolina). Why do you believe that?
Robert G. Kaiser: Because both have more diverse populations, more like the rest of the country than South Carolina.
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Huntington, W.V.:
We read about Hillary Clinton positioning herself to be drafted at the Convention.What set of facts would allow this to occur?
Robert G. Kaiser: Not facts, miracles. It won't happen.
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Chicago, Ill.:
What is the significance -- if any -- of the third place struggle between Edwards and Clark? It would seem that Edwards scores points for doing well in both Iowa and New Hampshire, while Clark has placed so much emphasis on New Hampshire that a lackluster showing there is damaging. What do you think?
Robert G. Kaiser: I think Edward is still alive; I'm not sure about Clark. This was his first big test, and he didn't do very well--whereas Edward surprised everyone last week in Iowa, and did -- well, did as well as Clark this week against two "home state" candidates in New Hampshire, Dean and Kerry, from the two neighboring states.
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Horseheads, N.Y.:
If Kerry wins, do you think he will raise the issue of
Vietnam service when running against Bush, who
allegedly didn't show up for his Air National Guard
duty?
Robert G. Kaiser: It will be an issue, sure. I don't know if Kerry will "raise" it, or just talk all around it. Obviously, he is making Vietnam veterans a big part of his campaign.
But he isn't the nominee yet.
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Falls Church, Va.:
Am I the only person who sees Edwards as a logical successor to the sequence of LBJ, Carter, and Clinton? Something in me winces at the thought of a presidential candidate from Massachusetts.
thanks.
Robert G. Kaiser: thank you
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Greenbelt, Md.:
In follow-up to an earlier question about the primary
schedule: is this year's schedule really as early/front-
loaded as it seems, and what effect might that have
on the general election (especially if a candidate who
is limited in funds garners the most delegates)?
Thanks for your time.
Robert G. Kaiser: Yes, there is no precedent for this year's front-loaded schedule. If a candidate who is limited by participation in the federal matching-funds program is the nominee, he'll have little or no money for months after he clinches the nomination.
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Las Vegas, N.V.:
What will third or fourth do for the Clark campaign?
Robert G. Kaiser: It won't help it.
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South Bend, Ind.:
Contrary to what you and others have been saying, the CNN exit polls indicate that more voters (57 percent) chose their candidate on the basis of issues than on the basis of electability (33 percent). It is also interesting that the most liberal voters preferred Dean and the most conservative voters preferred Kerry by a large margin, even though Kerry has a much more liberal record than Dean's. Can media misrepresentation be so effective that conservatives actually flock to Kerry?
Robert G. Kaiser: The media did it again!
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Orlando, Fla.:
Do you think any of the Democratic candidates would select Hilary Clinton as the VP running mate? If so, what do you think the outcome would be?
Robert G. Kaiser: I guess it's a possibility, though i don't expect it. The Clintons are, I think, going to be divisive figures in the Democratic politics for years to come.
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Robert G. Kaiser: OK, two hours in enough. Thanks to all the hundreds of readers who posted questions, and thanks for the good comments and suggestions. We'll be back next Tuesday night.
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