Election 2004: Iowa Caucus
Live from the Polk County Convention Center
Des Moines, Iowa
Monday, January 19, 2004; 9:00 p.m ET
Sen. John F. Kerry (D-Mass.) scored an impressive come-from-behind victory in the Iowa caucuses tonight, reviving a candidacy that until recently had been clinging to life in the race for the Democratic presidential nomination.
washingtonpost.com was live from the Polk County Convention Center in Des Moines, Iowa while the results rolled in, with washingtonpost.com's Terry Neal, Hotline Managing Editor Vaughn Ververs, Iowa Democratic Party Chairman Gordon Fischer and more.
Starting Tuesday, washingtonpost.com will be live from Manchester, N.H. with politicians, newsmakers and analysts to take your questions and comments on the New Hampshire primary and the campaign trail. A complete list of political discussions can be found here.
The transcript follows.
Editor's Note: washingtonpost.com moderators retain editorial control
over Live Online discussions and choose the most relevant questions for guests and hosts; guests and hosts can decline to answer questions.
Terry Neal: Hello everyone. Thanks much for joining me. I'm in the press center at the Polk County Convention Center in Des Moines, and I'm looking forward to taking your questions. So let's get started.
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Arlington, Va.:
Terry, you have been doing excellent work over there and we're waiting for you to come back home. Our Question:
Does a Kerry victory tonight make him the front-runner in New Hampshire and how does a victory for him affect the Clark campaign going forward? Good or bad?
Terry Neal: Thank you for your question. If Kerry holds on and wins this thing, I don't know if it makes him the front-runner in NH, but it certainly does shake up the race.
First of all, people in NH don't necessarily follow the advice of people in Iowa. In 2000, for instance, Bush beat McCain here then went on to a landslide defeat in NH.
But a Kerry win here would give him huge momentum going into NH, where he has struggled. Wesley Clark has had the state almost to himself in the past month, and he's used it to move past Kerry and to catch up almost with Dean in the polls.
Whether Kerry is the front-runner or not, I don't know. But this makes him a serious player again, no question.
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washingtonpost.com:
Terry, Howard Dean just appeared on CNN and seems to have accepted that he is not going to win the night. How big an impact will this have on his campaign?
Terry Neal: Yes, the campaign was telling reporters even before 6:30 when the caucuses began, that Dean was probably going to finish third. They knew.
First the bad news for Dean: This loss will seriously hamper his ability to portray himself as the inevitable candidate. He and his campaign will also be forced to answer endless questions over the next few days about this flop--and it is a flop, considering he was up more than 10 points in the polls as recently as a couple weeks ago.
The good news is, that not being the front-runner any more takes some of the heat of him and places it on others, namely Kerry and Clark, who is gaining on Dean in the polls.
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Washington, D.C.:
Terry, How's the weather out there?
Terry Neal: Uh, cold.
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Washington, D.C.:
Terry,
The weather question is serious since it can affect turnout. My understanding is that it's cold but dry, so Iowans should turn out. I know my brother and mother are attending as is my neice a student at UNI.
So what are the latest numbers?
Thanks.
Terry Neal: OK, I just got the official number. It's 7 degrees right now. But our reports are that turnout is very high. These Iowans are tough folks.
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Brookville, Pa.:
At this point who is the leading canidate and what percentage does each one hold?
Terry Neal: Kerry is leading in the polls right now with more than half of the precincts reporters. Edwards second. Dean third. And the big news of the night...Gephardt is a distant fourth.
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washingtonpost.com:
Latest Results
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Arlington, Va.:
How many "Dean is Dead" articles will we read tomorrow? Is the death of the Deanie Weanies a voter recoil against his unelectability, or was there something else that caused his lead to vanish?
Terry Neal: Deanie Weanies? Haven't heard that one before...I don't think you'll see Dean is dead stories. But you will see Dean is in trouble stories. By finishing third, Dean stays alive. But it really puts the pressure on for NH.
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Arlington, Va.:
I understand people can register for the Democratic party and as a caucus voter as late as tonight. How many new voters are expected tonight?
Terry Neal: I asked Gordon Fischer, chairman of the state Democratic party, that question yesterday, and he predicted that the number of last-minute registrations would not be that significant. He may have been wrong. Early reporters are that many, many people are registering at the last minute. At least one precinct has reported that it is out of registration forms (sorry, I don't know how many they had). The big question, and one we won't know for a little while, is about how many of those last minute registrations were from Republicans registering just to vote.
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Silver Spring, Md.:
I was reading about this "deal" between Edwards and Kucinich to ask Kucinich supporters to swing their support to Edwards in precincts where he doesn't receive the minimum support needed to continue and vice versa. How willing will supporters be to do that? Won't they feel a bit used or irrelevant?
Terry Neal: Hard to say. My guess is that many will not vote for Edwards, who voted in favor of the Iraq war resolution. But you never know. That's another question that we won't be able to answer for a day or so.
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Stafford, Va.:
Isn't the fact that this thing is looking like a four-way tie just indicative that there is no strong Democratic candidate?
Terry Neal: Well, first of all, I would say that if these results that are coming in, it is not a four-way tie. At least here in Iowa, at least one candidate will be gone after tonight probably, and at this point, it looks like that candidate will be Gephardt.
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washingtonpost.com:
In his article explaining the Iowa Caucus process, Dan Balz describes the caucus system as meetings of neighborhood political activists. Are Iowans more interested in politics than the rest of this country, and would this system work anywhere else?
Terry Neal: I don't get the impression that Iowans are more interested in politics than the rest of the country. I mention this in my column today...Rarely do you meet people in this state outside of campaign events who say they plan on participating in the caucuses. Remember, this is not a small state, at least compared to say, Vermont or North Dakota. There are three million people here. And only about 120,000 or so will probably participate tonight.
But the people who do participate are very active, and highly astute and take their politics very seriously.
Most states have phased out the caucus system, which tends to be a little unwieldy.
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Springfield, Va.:
So when will we start getting results?
Terry Neal: With about 3/4 of precincts reporting, CNN just called it for Kerry. There ya go!
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Clifton, Va.:
How much weight should and will be given to the entrance polls?
Terry Neal: Normally not much, especially after the debacle of 2000. But in this case, they were pretty accurate. By about 7 p.m., the results were showing Kerry with the lead, followed by Edwards, Dean and Gephardt. Those results the held through the night...
Well folks, I've got to run. it's been great. And please, join me back here for another live chat on Thursday at 1 p.m.
Take care,
Terry
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washingtonpost.com:
Stay tuned for more journalists, analysts and campaign supporters.
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washingtonpost.com:
We are now joined by Vaughn Ververs, Managing Editor of The Hotline. Vaughn, how important is Iowa to the campaigns -- both to the winner and losers?
Vaughn Ververs: Traditionally, Iowa is the state where candidates lose, not win. In the past, it has served to narrow the field for New Hampshire. All the above appear to have happened here tonight. We have a loser -- Dick Gephardt and two winners, John Kerry and John Edwards. This one will likely change the way we've come to look at the Iowa caucuses.
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Alexandria, Va.:
Since Edwards seems to have leapt from oblivion these
last few days, is this an indicator that Democrats
want a "new regime" in the Democratic party, though
one that's not as gruff as the Dean message? Do you
think that this could spark a good showing for Clark
in New Hampshire since he's running a more unassuming
campaign -- a la Edwards?
Thanks for being online tonight!
Vaughn Ververs: I think that the attacks on Dean from the rest of the field took their toll this week, not to mention attacks from the GOP-leaning Club for Growth, whose big ad buy here previewed likely GOP attacks on Dean in the general. It appears that much of the Dean support went to Edwards, but some, along with Gephardt support went to Kerry. That suggests to me that Dems here were split a bit between the establishment and the "new regime."
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Vancouver, B.C., Canada:
Kerry won Iowa with General Wesley Clark's "national" demographic.
Would Clark have been the choice if he had competed in Iowa?
Vaughn Ververs: That's an interesting question. Many observers believe that Clark could have had an impact here. My belief is that he made the right choice by skipping the caucuses. His real movement in the race was made possible because he largely had New Hapshire to himself for the past two weeks. I think he would have struggle to break through in a crowded field.
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Boston, Mass.:
In the recent stories about Carter's Iowa win being the big reason why the Iowa caucuses are so important, it's noted that there was a large percentage of "uncommitted" delegates -- but in the reports of tonight's votes, there are currently no "uncommitted" delegates. Is this because of the large number of candidates, or because use of "uncommitted" delegates has decreased over time, or is this just an odd year?
Vaughn Ververs: The increased importance of Iowa, and the serious way in which voters here approach the caucuses, have led to a decrease in undecideds. This year, the field was very strong in terms of the number of serious candidates and the party is united in their desire to see Bush defeated, so the undecideds are almost non-existent
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Arlington, Va.:
Don't you think Edwards gets the bump in New Hampshire? Kerry's been there, and if they haven't gone to him yet, the Kerry win in Iowa won't mean much, will it?
Vaughn Ververs: I do think that Edwards will get a bounce into New Hampshire, but Kerry will likely get part of it as well. Already this week we've seen Kerry's poll numbers there climbing so he starts with a bigger number but Edwards will be introduced to New Hampshire and the nation in a way candidates only dream of.
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Minneapolis, Minn.:
If Edwards finishes second, is there new pressure on him next week in New Hampshire? Previously he'd been putting a lot of stock in South Carolina and emerging as the "stop Dean" candidate. But after this finish, does he need to follow up strong in the nation's first primary?
Thanks.
Vaughn Ververs: I think the pressure on Edwards to win will not be in New Hampshire, but he will need to follow up with a strong finish there. The pressure this week will be stronger on Dean, Clark and Kerry which may help Edwards.
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Washington, D.C.:
Will Gephardt finally withdrawal from the race? Who will he endorse if he does?
Vaughn Ververs: Reports are that Gephardt will likely withdraw from the race. I wouldn't venture to say who he may endorse, but watch all the nice things the rest of the candidates say about him over the next few hours/days. (I would say Dean probably isn't at the top of his list).
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West Orange, N.J.:
Hi,
I thought the conventional wisdom predicted that the candidates with better organization (Dean and Gephardt) would come out on top. Why has the result so far been the opposite?
Vaughn Ververs: With turnout estimates reaching over 100,000, and a great many being first-time caucus goers, this contest almost looks like a primary. We heard so many estimates from the campaigns about "hard counts" -- those they were sure of -- that didn't come true, it really will take awhile until we learn what truly happened here.
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Syracuse, N.Y.:
Will the major Democratic contributors throw their money to Kerry now, or will they wait to see the New Hampshire results?
Vaughn Ververs: Kerry and Edwards are likely to get a nice bump in their fundraising but there's only a week before New Hampshire so some money may wait for then.
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washingtonpost.com:
We are now joined by Iowa Democratic Chair Gordon Fischer
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Lockport, N.Y.:
Please comment on the impact of the Iowa caucus on Wesley Clark and other candidates who opted to focus on other states. How will that affect their bid for the nomination?
Gordon Fischer: Gen. Clark and Sen. Lieberman made a strategic decision to skip Iowa and focus on New Hampshire. Frankly I think this was a mistake and they will have to make history. No candidate has ever finished lower than third in the Iowa caucus and gone on to win the Dem. nomination.
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Washington, D.C.:
Since Gephardt has lost so badly, will he bow out of the race finally, and if he does, what candidate will he endorse?
Gordon Fischer: I would like to point out that Dick Gephardt has spent his entire life fighting for Iowa working families, Missouri working families, and indeed working families all across the U.S. Whatever happens tonight it should not reflect on an incredibly storied political career. Having said that there are reports that Gephardt has cancelled his flight to New Hampshire and will be holding a press conference in St. Louis tomorrow.
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Baltimore, Md.:
Mr. Fischer, did you predict this one?
Gordon Fischer: Of course not. Undecided voters and soft supporters were swinging like a broken gate in a thunderstorm. We had no idea what was going to happen tonight.
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Malibu, Calif.:
Is it rarely fair to give 125,000 people in Iowa the power to make or break the leadership of the free world? Everyone is now talking about how Dean has collapsed despite him leading in just about every poll in the nation. Is too much credit given to Iowa in situations like this?
Gordon Fischer: In Iowa we do not have the power to make or break the leadership of the free world. We are simply the first step in a long, long process. Obviously Gov. Dean will be able to campaign in New Hampshire and beyond and will have the opportunity to make his case to other states.
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Hopkinton, N.H.:
Does what is described as a record turnout in the caucus signify discontent with the Bush administration more than some internal Democratic movement?
Gordon Fischer: Yes. There is a incredible amount of antipathy towards the Bush administration. I have been to about 40 county events this year (out of 99 in the state) and we are getting twice or three times the crowds in years past. It is all based on folks desperately wanting change.
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Vienna, Va.:
Question for you: I just read on washingtonpost.com that John Kerry won, but it says that the delegates are over 1,000. I am confused. Doesn't Iowa have a very small amount of delegates for the convention? And doesn't that high number of over 1,000 mean the number of precincts or people? Can you clarify that for me? Thanks.
Gordon Fischer: This is a little bit confusing but we elected 14,000 + delegates tonight. However in order to speed up reporting and to make it easier for the media and public to digest we have broken that down to statewide equivalents. We have 3,000 delegates at our state wide convention. Tonight was a fight for those 3,000 delegates. Does that help?
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Chicago, Ill.:
Mr. Fischer:
Why should the Democratic party value the Iowa
caucus system? What's the advantage of the caucus
system compared to the primary system. And, to be
fair, what's the biggest disadvantage of the caucus
system.
Gordon Fischer: Just Gordon is fine. A caucus system is a very very different animal than a primary system. To be quite honest I think both have their advantages and disadvantages. The advantages of the caucus system are that friends and neighbors gather at their precinct to actively discuss candidates and issues. It is a very communitarian event. On the other hand, caucus systems take more time than simply casting a ballot.
P.S. - up to date numbers… 93 percent - 116,000 total caucus goers. The record in 125,000.
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Arlington, Va.:
Who is considered the most formidable candidate by
the Bush team? Any inkling of who they'd least like
to run against?
Gordon Fischer: I don't know, but the Bush administration should be worried about carrying Iowa. Iowa Democrats are fired up.
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washingtonpost.com:
Mr. Fischer has had to run to an interview and will try and stop by later in the evening to keep answering questions.
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washingtonpost.com:
Iowa Lieutenant Governor Sally Pederson stopped by to take your questions.
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Caracas, Venezuela:
Is John Edwards neck and neck with John Kerry a surprise? How and why is a Southerner doing so well in Iowa?
Lt. Gov. Sally Pederson: Iowans responded to John Edwards' positive message of hope. His positions on issues were ones that resonated with Iowa Democrats.
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Washington, D.C.:
With Gephardt's current distant fourth place, does this show that labor is less of a political force than it was in the 80's?
Lt. Gov. Sally Pederson: There were some unions that actually lined up for other candidates. Dean has ASCME and SEIU so I am not sure that that is really such an issue in a caucus state. Where your supporters live geographically matters. I think what this caucus vote shows us is that Kerry had very broad support geographically as did Edwards.
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Washington, D.C.:
So, in a carcus, every candidate that gets less then 15 percent is thrown out and then they vote again? Does that mean its impossible for a candidate to get less than 15 percent in any final individual carcus?
Lt. Gov. Sally Pederson: If you have less than 15 percent you are not viable so those votes can go to another candidate or go undecided.
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Baltimore, Md.:
Has the Iowa caucus always gotten this much attention? It seems to me that there is a lot of hype around it now. Is that new? And is the hype deserved?
Lt. Gov. Sally Pederson: The attention is deserved because Iowans spend a lot of time and energy looking all the candidates over. The media comes in the final days or weeks before the caucus, but a year or year and half before these candidate meet real voter and answer these voters questions. Iowans take time to get to know them and their positions. Pretty soon it is all about TV commercials and ads so I think this piece of the process is important and I would just assure people that we take the responsibility seriously and try and do a good job selecting a candidate we think best represents the Democratic Party
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washingtonpost.com:
That is all the time the Lieutenant Governor had.
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washingtonpost.com:
We will soon be joined by MSNBC focus group moderator Frank Luntz.
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Washington, D.C.:
How much does a third place finish hurt Dean?
Frank Luntz : Dean's comments, delivered in that angry tone, probably cost him about 250,000 votes. His tone is so off tonight. Even the reporters here in Iowa started to laugh. He is just tooo loud.
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Jacksonville, Fla.:
Why did no one see the dramatic shift to Kerry/Edwards (70 percent)?
Frank Luntz : We saw the shift in our focus group for MSNBC done on Thursday. Kerry and Edwards were positive. Dean and Gephardt were negative -- and negativity is just not "in" among Democrats right now. They want to beat Bush but they want to do it positively.
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Washington, D.C.:
Was Kerry's win tied to the "electability" issued that has dogged Governor Dean?
Frank Luntz : yes, I think electability helped Kerry a lot. His war record and experience in the senate clearly mattered, and his advertising was outstanding. His message was heard loud and clear. A lot of Republicans may be a bit more nervous tonight.
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Herndon, Va.:
As a North Carolina native and resident for most of my life, I've watched John Edward's campaign with interest. Do you think a strong showing in Iowa will gain him respect from the media as a serious contender?
Frank Luntz : Edwards clearly is now viable, but not in New Hampshire. HE is going to need a win in South Carolina to become the frontrunner -- and that's going to be tough. Clark is doing very well down there and now Kerry will be a factor.
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Etlan, Va.:
Are you surprised that the results were so different from what was predicted by the polling data?
Frank Luntz : Actually, the polling results over the past two days had KErry first, Edwards second and Dean third -- with Gephardt falling back. It never anticipated Kerry's strong showing but it did have him clearly in the lead.
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Vienna, Va.:
Good evening, Frank. Question for you: Since there are rumors flying around now that Gephardt might throw the white flag and give his support to the "nominee," who do you think the nominee will be after Iowa and New Hampshire? Since Kerry won by a surprise margin, is Kerry the most likely candidate to beat Bush in November?
Frank Luntz : At this point, I would say Kerry is the toughest candidate against Bush because he has the ability to move to the center which Dean obviously does not.
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washingtonpost.com:
That was the last question. Thanks to everyone who participated and come back tomorrow for more analysis and coverage on the latest political news.
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