Election 2004: Iowa Caucus
Gordon Fischer
Iowa Democratic Party Chairman
Tuesday, January 13, 2004; 2:00 p.m ET
What effect will the Des Moines Register's endorsement of Sen. John Edwards have on the Iowa caucus? Does the decision by the Lieberman and Clark campaigns to skip Iowa call into question the importance of the caucus? How exactly does the caucus work?
Iowa Democratic Party Chairman Gordon Fischer discussed the Jan. 19th Iowa caucus.
The transcript follows.
Editor's Note: washingtonpost.com moderators retain editorial control
over Live Online discussions and choose the most relevant questions for guests and hosts; guests and hosts can decline to answer questions.
Washington, D.C.:
Are you in a position where you can endorse a candidate or it frowned upon for state chairman to do this?
Gordon Fischer : I am not in a position to endorse a candidate. As Chairman of the Iowa Democratic Party, I oversee see the proper administration of the caucuses. The Party does their best to ensure a level, fair playing field for all candidates and we go at great lengths not to show any favoritism for any candidate. We are neutral in the process.
_______________________
Alexandria, Va.:
How much does it cost to put on the caucus?
Gordon Fischer : We are planning to spend about $750,000 on the caucuses including staff costs.
_______________________
Nederland, Colo.:
Obviously the Iowa caucus is important because it's the first major contest. Shouldn't we use some simple statistics to judge HOW important it is? Like, throughout it's history, what percentage of Iowa caucus winners go on to win nomination? What percentage of second place takers, etc.? Thank you.
Gordon Fischer : According to the history of the caucus, of those candidates who have participated in the caucus, no one that has ever finished lower than third in the caucus has gone on to win the nomination. Because of this, most Iowa political writers would say there are three "tickets" out of Iowa.
_______________________
Bethesda, Md.:
I recently saw a poll where approximately 15 percent of Iowans are undecided. Are the any estimates as to which way many of them are leaning, or is it pretty much a toss-up? Do you think these undecided voters will have any surprising affect on the outcome of the caucus?
Gordon Fischer : They (undecided caucus-goers) definitely have the opportunity to make things very interesting on Jan. 19th. It is very difficult to know which way they are leaning, though. Considering the fairly large amount of undecided voters and the voters which are not completely committed to their candidate (soft supporters), caucus night could be very interesting.
_______________________
Harrisburg, Pa.:
Iowa has an interesting caucus system. If a candidate at a polling location has fewer than 15 percent of the votes, supporters of that candidate recast their votes. I presume someone tablulates the initial votes to determine who met the threshhold. Are these numbers publicly reported? Or, are the only vote totals reported the final tallies from each polling place?
Gordon Fischer : Only the final tally of delegates is reported. The "recast" you mention, called the realignment process, is a key portion to the caucus process.
_______________________
Gaithersburg, Md.:
I have seen one writer suggest that the caucuses can be skewed by non-Iowa residents, who appear the night of the caucus. The safeguards are minimal. A person may participate without registering, and may register the night of the caucus.
Is this true? If so are there plans to add safeguards in the future?
Gordon Fischer : To participate in a caucus, a voter must live in that precinct and they must be a registered Democrat. You are correct that they may register that night-either to switch parties or to register a new address if they have recently moved into the area. The party has done a great deal to ensure out-of-staters do not interfer with the caucus process. Each campaign (except Sharpton) has signed a pledge letter indicating that they understand and will uphold the rules of the caucus as well as their staffs and volunteers. False registration is against the law and we fully intend to prosecute those who break this law. As Iowa is not the most populated state in the nation, most folks know their neighbors or have at least seen the people in their neighborhood. Precinct caucuses are very local, so someone who does not live in that neighborhood will most likely set off a red flag to the folks running the caucus location.
_______________________
Washington, D.C.:
How is the caucus different from a national election and a state election?
Gordon Fischer : A caucus is a meeting at a specific place and time as opposed to an election where polling locations are open all day. A voter must pledge public support for a candidate and then do their best to convince other voters to support their candidate of choice. In Iowa, a mathematical formula is used to determine the number of delegates a candidate receives, which is determinant on the number of supporters that candidate has that night. It is not one person = one vote. A delegate is essentially a representative of a candidate's preference group. At the end of the night, delegates are reported, not the raw number of folks who supported the candidate.
_______________________
Alexandria, Va.:
The endorsement game rolls on and gets odder by the moment. So far, we have seen VP gore, Senator Harkins, The New Republic, and a few papers in early primary states, have also endorsed candidates. And, they have been all over the map. Howard Dean got a few of the earliest, but now it has become the fashion for "formers and their friends" to also endorse. All of the Dems with a chance have picked up a few.
In the odd calculas of Iowa, do you think any of them will matter when the talking begins on January 16th?
Gordon Fischer : With the large number of undecided voters, the endorsements can't hurt. They are definitely a feather in the cap of the candidate who receives the endorsement. But at the end of the day, it's all about which candidates get their supporters out on caucus night. If the endorsement helps to mobilize voters, then I suppose the endorsement is worth a great deal.
_______________________
Washington, D.C.:
Has the stature of the caucus risen over past elections? Have you seen a higher media turnout since you have been keeping tabs?
Gordon Fischer : This particular caucus is definitely drawing a great deal of attention. Since there are so many candidates, each one has brought a lot to the race. This has also helped to spark a great deal of media attention. There will be more than 1,000 media folks in Iowa to cover the caucuses. In 1988 when there were seven candidates, the media frenzy was also quite large, but I'm not sure how large. We have most definitely seen a huge interest in the caucus process this time around.
_______________________
Water St., N.Y.:
What concequences do Clark and Lieberman face for not participating in the Iowa caucus?
Gordon Fischer : We are definitely disappointed that Clark and Lieberman chose not to spend more time in Iowa. As I mentioned to someone earlier, of the candidates who have spent time in Iowa, no one that has finished poorer than third has ever gone on to win the nomination.
_______________________
Alexandria, Va.:
How odd is it for a sitting governor's wife to endorse a presidential candidate? It struck me as odd.
Gordon Fischer : I don't know about other First Ladies, but this is the second time Christie Vilsack has endorsed. She endorsed Gore in 2000.
_______________________
Washington, D.C.:
What do you see as the benefits and drawbacks of the caucus system? How did such a system come about?
Gordon Fischer : As Iowans, we of course are very proud of the caucus process. I could give you a lengthy explanation of caucus history, but I know of a great resource for you to use. On the Des Moines Register's web site, www.desmoinesregister.com, political columnist David Yepsen gives a history of the caucuses, which is very interesting. I recommend checking it out.
_______________________
Cleveland, Ohio:
Considering that with the Iowa caucuses, participation is based quite a bit on actually attending a caucus location, how you do try to ensure that all Iowans (including those who are disabled or have mobility problems) are provided equal opportunity to participate?
Gordon Fischer : In the Iowa code, it says a caucus location must be a public building whenever possible. These are to be buildings that are also handicap accesible. We would never want to deter someone from participating, so we do our best to provide accessible buildings for our voters.
_______________________
Lyme, Conn.:
Over the years, I've mostly seen political parties, especially state Democratic Parties, in debt. If the party can't pay for a caucus, what would happen then?
Gordon Fischer : I can't speak for other state parties, but we are ok. Since we are accustomed to putting on the caucuses, we focus our fundraising efforts to this and are prepared to deal with it in caucus years. In November, we had one of our annual fundraisers, which will fund a good portion of the caucuses.
_______________________
Louisville, Ky.:
I have two questions regarding the 15 percent threshold (which is confusing me).
First, is it true that a candidate (such as say Kerry or Edwards) could theoretically have 14 percent of the vote of every caucus, but get zero votes or delegates? This seems a bit troubling, so I'm not sure why this rule exists (assuming I am correct).
Second, because of the 15 percent threshold, I'm assuming that many voters will ultimately vote for their second, rather than their first, pick. Does this make the tracking polls worthless?
Thanks -- I would really appreciate a clarification.
Gordon Fischer : To clarify, only precincts electing four or more delegates have to meet the 15% threshold. It is different for those who elect fewer delegates. I guess techinically you could say that a candidate could receive 14% in each precinct and then not receive a delegate. This probably won't occur. Since there is a re-alignment period after the initial alignment period, a group that is at 14% should do their best do get other voters to join their group to make their's viable instead of breaking up. A great deal of bargaining goes on during both alignment periods. As for your second question, since folks can change their minds, entrance polls can be hard to track. It depends how "soft" the supporter is for their candidate.
_______________________
Traverse City, Mich.:
How exactly does a caucus differ from the normal nominating process? Why have a caucus and not go directly to a vote?
Gordon Fischer : I answered this question from someone earlier, so please check note that answer. If you look on our web site, www.iowademocrats.org, we have a six-page tutorial about how the caucuses work. You may want to check this out to get more information.
_______________________
Chattanooga, Tenn.:
What percentage of the registered-to-vote population usually participate in the caucuses?
Gordon Fischer : If 100,000 people participate in the caucus (which would be great) that would be about 20% of registered Democrats in Iowa. In 1988, about 120,000 voters participated in the caucuses.
_______________________
Haymarket, Va.:
Iowa's Democrats have the enviable opportunity to speak their minds first on the issue of the Party's most important flag-bearer. Do you think that fact has a quantifiable effect on the voting? Do Iowans think "nationally," rather than "locally," when they participate in the primary.
Gordon Fischer : I think the concerns of Iowans are very similar to those in other states. Iowans care deeply about the economy, health care, education, the Iraq situation, etc. I believe these are the concerns of most Americans, so yes, I think Iowans think nationally when participating in the caucuses.
_______________________
Gordon Fischer : Thanks to all of you who posted questions. I really appreciate your interest, and I'm sorry I couldn't answer more questions. As I listed in a few of the replies, please check out www.iowademocrats.org, www.caucus2004.org or www.desmoinesregister.com (David Yepsen's caucus history) for more information. They are great resources.
Thanks again!
_______________________
Automatically Update Page
Get New Responses
Submit Question
| 
