Election 2004: Analysis
David Broder
Washington Post Columnist
Monday, February 09, 2004; 11:00 a.m. ET
What messages can be gleaned from this weekend's caucuses? How important are Tuesday's primaries to both Edwards and Clark? What do you make of former Vermont governor Howard Dean's decision to formally declare Wisconsin his must win state?
Pulitzer Prize-winning Post columnist and reporter David S. Broder was online to talk about the weekend caucuses and the Democratic presidential nomination race.
The transcript follows.
Editor's Note: washingtonpost.com moderators retain editorial control
over Live Online discussions and choose the most relevant questions for guests and hosts; guests and hosts can decline to answer questions.
Laurel, Md.:
Do you see any scenario under which Kerry could not be the Democratic nominee?
David Broder: Yes. If he starts losing primaries tomorrow or next Tuesday, he could still lose the nomination. That does not seem very probable.
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Washington, D.C.:
How much do you think the bandwagon effect plays a role after the first few primaries? That is, since Kerry has won the majority of the primaries thus far, and even though there are enough delegates left to change the lead Democrat, do you think anyone else can take over the frontrunner? Or, do you think the general public will start to vote for Kerry since he has already won so many of the earlier primaries?
David Broder: This year, the bandwagon effect seems to be very strong. But that has not always been the case. Clinton did not win his first primary until they got to Georgia and in 1976 after President Ford had won a dozen primaries Ronald Reagan staged a strong challenge.
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Storm Lake, Iowa:
Do you think Bush appearing on Meet the Press yesterday has hurt any of the Democratic candidates? Also, how do you think Kerry will handle Bush's statement that Kerry and the Democratic party is disparaging the National Guard? washingtonpost.com:
Bush Was Surprised at Lack of Iraqi Arms (Post, Feb. 9)
President Bush, at Home With the Issues (Post, Feb. 9)
David Broder: I don't think the President's appearance hurt the Democrats but I think he did himself a favor by appearing on Meet the Press. The national guard question is one the Democrats will have to handle with great care so as not to disparage the service of those who have joined the Guard over the years.
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Washington, D.C.:
How can Kerry make the case against Bush effectively in the national election--against No Child Left Behind, the Patriot Act, the war, and tax cuts--after he himself voted for all of these parts of the Bush agenda? And, can he really take Bush to task for catering to special interests when he failed to vote on the Prescription Drug bill and has highest-in-the-Senate fundraising among lobbyists in the last 15 years? How is such a stark contrast between the anti-Bush message and the appeasing Bush-Lite messenger "electable"? What gives? washingtonpost.com:
Kerry's 19 Years in Senate Invite Scrutiny (Post, Feb. 8)
David Broder: You have asked a series of very tough questions which ought to go to the Kerry Campaign. I am not a spokesman for Sen. Kerry nor a strategist.
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Florissant, Mo.:
The issue of 'electability' is often cited as now the most important for choosing a Democratic presidential candidate. Underlying 'electability' has to be another issue -- e.g., I want someone who is electable because I want George Bush stopped from continuing his assault on this nation's foreign policy. Do pollsters ask the follow-up question as to why they want someone who is 'electable'? washingtonpost.com:
Grand Old Pragmatism (Post, Feb. 6)
David Broder: Pollsters are asking many questions about the issues in this campaign and about President Bush's record. The findings vary, but suggest that he may be more vulnerable on domestic questions that on his conduct of foreign policy. But I expect both will be part of the debate this fall.
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Brooklyn, N.Y.:
Do you think that John Kerry has gotten enough scrunity from the national press since becoming the frontrunner? Do you think this will change before he gets the nomination locked up?
David Broder: Stories are beginning to appear in many places about Sen. Kerry's record during his years of service, and there will certainly be more of them if he becomes the nominee. No one becomes president without undergoing that kind of scrutiny and Sen. Kerry will not be an exception.
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Brussels, Belgium:
You just said that you think Bush "did himself a favor" by appearing on Meet the Press. Can you expand on that point?
David Broder: I thought Tim Russert's questions were well designed to put the president on the defensive, but he did not come across to me as sounding defensive, so I thought his appearance was a plus politically.
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Virginia Voter:
Still wrestling with whether to go with Kerry or Edwards tomorrow. It's all about electabilty for me. Edwards entices me because of his ability to potentially carry some Southern states in the general election. But it feels like Kerry may have this it wrapped up already. Any chance Edwards would accept VP? Thanks. washingtonpost.com:
Kerry, Edwards Woo Key Va. Voters (Post, Feb. 9)
David Broder: Sen. Edwards has been asked repeatedly about taking the number two spot and his answer is always the same: "I am running for President." You have to interpret that for yourself.
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Minneapolis, Minn.:
Why did Dean choose Wisconsin as his must-win state? Do you really think he will drop out if he doesn't finish first there? washingtonpost.com:
Dean Declares Wisconsin a Must Win (Post, Feb. 5)
David Broder: I think he chose Wisconsin because its voters have a reputation for independence and a liking for mavericks. If he does not win Wisconsin, I think his backers will have to concede that the fight is over.
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San Francisco, Calif.:
One of the potential weaknesses in a Kerry candidacy is his fundraising ability. For all of his flaws as a candidate, Dean has proved amazingly effective in his ability to boost his campaign warchest, thanks to small contributions from individual donors. Since Kerry has no such reservoir of financial support, don't you think he could be particularly hampered in his ability to compete with Bush? Why has this story gone unreported? washingtonpost.com:
As Money Flows to Kerry, Challengers Must Scrimp (Post, Feb. 5)
David Broder: Gov. Dean's Internet fundraising has truly been phenomenal and you are correct that no one else in the field can match it. But Sen. Kerry, if nominated, will be able to draw on support from many traditional Democratic donors including the labor unions and other groups which backed Dean or other candidates. I do not think his will be a financially anemic campaign.
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Huntsville, Tex.:
Thanks for your great reporting and your fairness. Two questions: Is Dean's political career likely over? Will Gore's career be hurt by Dean's collapse?
David Broder: I would hesitate to predict that Gov. Dean's political career is over. He is relatively young and clearly has built a following in his home state and in many other constituencies. What he will do with his support only he can answer.
Mr. Gore is one of many notables whose endorsements did not seem to impress the voters. Maybe they can have a consolation party for themselves.
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Umea, Sweden:
Hello David,
The results from Washington and Maine are quite similar, with Kerry far ahead in both states and with Dean second and Kucinich third. Do you think this is a reflection of these states holding caucuses (and thus with fewer participants as compared to primaries) or do you think these similar results reflect the ideological sentiments in Washington and Maine?
David Broder: I don't know what would have happened in primaries in those states, but the results were not a surprise. In every case I can remember Maine has backed the winner of the New Hampshire primary. In Washington, Sen. Kerry was endorsed by the governor and one of the two senators, and I think they probably had a good sense about their constituents' inclinations.
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Placitas, N.M.:
What do you make of the combined total of votes that went to Dean and Kucinich in both Washington State and Maine. Together they rival Kerry's total. Although you can argue Dean's progressive credentials, it's clear he drew many of those votes. Is this a signal to Kerry to lean left a bit? Also, if Maine and Washington had been the first caucuses, might Kucinich been given more media attention? Shows me how arbitrary the "elimination" process is.
David Broder: Both Maine and Washington have enclaves of very liberal voters and Mr. Kucinich worked hard in both states to mobilize them. Clearly the order of the primaries and the caucuses has an affect and those that come early enjoy greater influence than those that come along later.
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Atlanta, Ga.:
To what extent and to what degree of lack of support will George Bush's apparent abandonment of his conservative base do to him in his quest for re-election in November? How likely is this to play in any failure in his campaign?
David Broder: I am skeptical that there will be and large-scale defection of conservatives from the Bush campaign in November. He has met their expectations on many issues and the contrast with any of the Democrats will be very sharp, so I do not expect to see a big stay-at-home movement among conservatives.
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Muskegon Heights, Mich.:
How much value do you place on polling done during and following major primary wins by Sen. Kerry. Aren't the polls "skewd" due to excessive positive attention to John Kerry? And, should the media be more careful of trumpting these early polls as "news" stories?
Thanks.
David Broder: I think polling before primary elections is very difficult because so many voters in those primaries make up their minds just before the polls open. I think pre-primary polls should be treated with great caution. The exit polls based on interviews with those who have voted are much more useful analytical tools and deserve much more credence.
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Greenbelt, Md.:
The weakness of the Democrats never ceases to amaze me. Once again, they've allowed the Republicans to choose their nominee, destined for yet another 40+ state whomping. Fear of standing up to the current resident of the White House created this 'electibility' issue, so there is now another boring, ineffective, insider candidate like Mondale and Dukakis (who were both 'electible' back in their day). Thanks DNC for not being neutral! What kind of alternative is that?
What is the word on another Nader run? If the Democrats are going to give their voters nothing to support, then we need to find someone else.
David Broder: I don't know how many people share your view of the Democratic primary process. Mr. Nader has not yet announced whether he will run again, and he is probably wondering how many others there are like you.
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Roseland, N.J.:
I hear a lot of party officials very happy with the "compressed" primary schedule -- but hasn't it simply handed the nomination to the candidate who got early momentum? Isn't there something to be said for having a week for the campaigns to stop, reflect where the race is, retool their message if necessary, or maybe just be able to campaign in a state campaign for more than three days?
David Broder: Amen. I think the current schedule is ridiculous. Every time I think it can't get worse it gets worse. Surely someday people will say, "What's the rush?"
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Mechanicsburg, Pa.:
I didn't quite get the same feeling from the President's "Meet The Press" interview as you. I thought he did far too much babbling. People expect a president to give straight answers. How many of those did you note yesterday? And his forced cheerfulness reminded me of noone more than Pat Robertson.
I was impressed with his overall knowledge -- he's no dummy. But I expected Russert to make an effort to corral Bush when he told out-and-out lies (such as the one about his campaign releasing his military records in 2000 -- never happened). It's too bad he didn't.
David Broder: Well, you are certainly entitled to your opinion. I thought Russert followed up well. It is not easy to interview a president in the Oval Office. I thought he walked the line carefully between being persistent and being rude, but you make a good point about the military service records.
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Wichita, Kan:
Does it suprise you that the other canidates haven't been criticizing Kerry's record as extensively as they could. I mean it seems their pretty much giving him a free ride. Are they all angling for the VP spot?
David Broder: I can't speculate about their motives, but I agree with you that Sen. Kerry has had rather gentle treatment from the others. They may feel that Democratic voters would not take kindly to an all-out assault on the front-runner.
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El Paso, Tex.:
The media has noticed that Democrats are surprisingly unified in their desire to beat Bush. However, I have seen little or no analysis of the reasons for this relatively unprecedented circumstance. Why?
David Broder: I don't think there is great mystery. President Bush has made truly radical changes in basic policy, ranging from taxes, to diplomacy, to national security. These changes are controversial. Democratic voters by in large disagree with them and are consequently motivated more than a little to want to defeat the incumbent.
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Norman, Okla.:
How well do Edwards and Clark have to do this Tuesday in Tennessee and Virginia to remain viable and in the race? What upcoming elections past Tennessee and Virginia are important to their campaigns?
David Broder: Well, both of them would like a win on Tuesday but say they will be satisfied with second place behind Sen. Kerry. Both hope to set up a one-on-one showdown with Kerry beginning in Wisconsin on Feb. 17 and continuing on "Super Tuesday" March 2 in California, New York, Ohio, Georgia and other states.
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Washington, D.C.:
What is your favorite Web site, besides washingtonpost.com of course?
David Broder: Stateline.org
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Woodbridge, Va.:
As the Brookings Institution has recently illustrated so very well, the deficit is a problem that tax hikes alone can't solve. Yet, at 20 percent of the Federal budget, this deficit is the elephant in the room that the candidates are all ignoring. I've yet to hear any serious discussion, including spending cuts, from any of the candidates, on what is, in my opinion, a serious issue. How damaging is this to the country and the economy in the long run, this refusal to even discuss spending responsibly?
David Broder: I agree with you. Dealing with the deficit will be a huge challenge for anyone sitting in the Oval Office in the next 10 years and the public is poorly served when candidates, including the incumbent, fuzz the issue.
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Lindenhurst, N.Y.:
With only about 10 percent of the Democratic delegates committed to candidates why aren't all the candidates still fighting to obtain a majority? California and New York should be the main states to contend for. Why quit earlier?
David Broder: They are not quitting because they want to, they are quitting because they have to. Money and support evaporate when you fail to win in the first dozen contests.
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Akron, Ohio:
I find it interesting that George W. Bush is hearing some of the same muttering about Cheney -- that W should dump him -- that his father heard about Dan Quayle. When was the last time that a president dropped his VP when running for re-election?
David Broder: That would be President Ford who asked Nelson Rockefeller to step aside in 1976 and chose Bob Dole as his running mate.
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Portland, Ore.:
Do you think Dean voters will remain active in the Democratic nominee's campaign if it's Kerry? If no, do you think the call of Nader or Dean as an Independent is in the near future?
David Broder: My guess is that some will remain active in the Democratic Party and others will not. Gov. Dean has ruled out running as an independent. Mr. Nader has not made clear his plans.
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Owensboro, Ky.:
Conventional wisdom says the Democrats have a disadvantage because they have a tough time winning in the South. What about the tough time the Republicans have winning in the Northeast and West Coast? It's not like these two sets of electoral votes cancel themselves out, either. Throw in Illinois, which is also a Democratic lock at the national level, and you have 4/5 of the votes required for victory.
David Broder: Your math is impeccable, but 4/5ths doesn't quite get you to 270. It is difficult, but not impossible for the Democrats to win without cracking the South or the border states.
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Seward, Neb.:
Have you ever seen the Democrats so unified, both in their apparent support for Kerry and their seeming unwillingness to do what Democrats usually do, that is fight with each other over seemingly trivial differences to the point of demolishing the party?
David Broder: It is rare to see that degree of unity when there is not an incumbent Democratic president. As you will remember, President Clinton had no opposition in 1996, and Vice President Gore appeared to be a widely popular choice among Democrats in 2000. Party unity is wonderful, but it does not by itself guarantee victory.
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Minnetonka, Minn.:
Do you think the GOP ploy to make gay marriage a major issue in the coming election was devised as a response to the Massachussetts court ruling, as a response to the probability of Dean or Kerry as the nominee, or just plain "rile up your base" scare tactics?
David Broder: Again, it is difficult if not impossible to ascribe motives. Gay marriage will be an issue for some voters, but my guess is that the economy and Iraq will matter to many more.
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Arlington, Va.:
David, can you please do online discussions more often?!
David Broder: I enjoy these discussion very much and will do them more often once we are passed the primaries. I thank all of you who participated today. This will have to be my last question for now.
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