The Guide: The District, Maryland and Virginia
Stephen Fuller, Ph.D.
Economist, Center for Regional Analysis and Institute of Public Policy, George Mason University
Friday, April 23, 2004; 11:00 a.m. ET
Dr. Stephen Fuller, economist and professor of public policy at the Center for Regional Analysis and the Institute of Public Policy at George Mason University, will be online Friday, April 23 at 11 a.m. ET, to discuss regional development and growth in the Washington metropolitan area.
washingtonpost.com's Metro section presents The Guide, a comprehensive regional resource, including important information on how to get around your area, where to shop, how to contact elected officials and where to go when you need or want help.
You'll also find some special features: John Kellys Washington provides the lowdown on how certain neighborhoods got their names; Nancy Lewis surveys some of the many restaurants in the area; KidsPost suggests some cool activities for kids; Dr. Gridlock gives us a plan for getting where we want to go; and readers tell us what they like about where they live.
The Guide
A transcript follows.
Editor's Note: washingtonpost.com moderators retain editorial control
over Live Online discussions and choose the most relevant questions for guests and hosts; guests and hosts can decline to answer questions.
Stephen Fuller: Glad to be here this morning. I look forward to your questions on the Washington area economy, its current performance and outlook for the coming year, job growth, housing, and other development issues,
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Falls Church, Va.:
Will the continued problem with the Virginia budget cause any adverse affects on the D.C. economy.
Stephen Fuller: Certainly the budget problem will cause long term problems for the Northern Va economy as well as some immediate problems if not resolved soon.
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Washington, D.C.:
Do we usually see any changes in the economy of the city during an election year, or are the changes so minute that we would not see a change be it negative or positive?
Stephen Fuller: the Washington area economy is usually a little stronger in a an election year because of the campaign orgaizations and their spending here--hotel occupancy is up. The off set is that congress may get out of town early. When the presidency changes, there are other economic benefits.
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Alexandria, Va:
Dr. Fuller,
Do you think that the transportation infrastructure will always lag behind growth in Northern Virginia?
Stephen Fuller: Yes. We can never catch up to demand as demand is accelerating--two and three car failies, two or more workers per household, we are the problem as our mobility requirements seem to have no limit.
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Washington, D.C.:
Dr. Fuller, what studies have you taken part in as economist and professor of public policy at the Center for Regional Analysis and the Institute of Public Policy at George Mason University?
Stephen Fuller: Check our website at http://CRA.gmu.edu. I have written a monthly report on the Washington economy for 158 consecutive months and also one on the Fairfax County economy for more than six years. Also, ten to 20 reports on specific topics every year. Our annual economic outlook and forecast report came out last month ands is on the website.
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Silver Spring, Md.:
The Metro has said they need to increase charges to run efficiently, and also saying most of the increased traffic will be on the Orange Line running through the city with a substantial amount of stops in the suburbs of Maryland and Virginia. Are these the areas that are seeing the most growth?
Stephen Fuller: The area's population and job growth is quite uneven with the Northern virginias I-66 and route 7 out to Dulles and beyond accounting for about 1/3 of the new gains over the past 10 years. Also, westward out I-270 into Frederick County and including Montgomery County is experience strong growth pressures.
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Washington, D.C.:
I have noticed more caucasians living in the city borders than ten years ago. Is this a misplaced observation or has this recent trend been documented?
Secondly, if there is this trend does this mean more minorities are moving out of the city, or that the population of the city is just increasing?
Stephen Fuller: Sorry I skipped over this question first, I had a technical problem. Good question. The District's white population has increased slightly during the 90's but its Hispanic population has grown the most while the Africanamerican population has declined slightly. This change has a lot to do with household size, families with childrend moving out to find better schools and more open space while one and two person households moving in. Also, the cost to live in DC has gone up rapidly with rising housing prices; this is having an effect on the City's demographhic profile.
Durinng the 90's, 48% of the metro area's population growth (almost 200,000 people) were foreign born; emigrants have become a major force inb the area's population growth in all jurisdictions and is channging their profiles. this is especially true in Arlington and alexandria and in side the beltway in Maryland.
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Takoma, Md.:
For some time now residents of Washington, and some of the surrounding areas have argued for Washington, D.C.'s statehood. What economic changes would follow if statehood becomes a reality?
Stephen Fuller: Startehood for DC would not alter the region's economy significantly. There is a strong functional interdependency among the region's sub-state juridictions, thhis is seen in commuting patterns and in business flows. The major change other than political representation and decisionmaking would be fiscal. DC is a city and also has to perform state functions while all local jurisdictions in Maryland or Virginia also have a state government and financial overlay to help cover some of the costs.
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Washington, D.C.:
I won't ask you to endorse a candidate, but which of the two do you think is better for the local economy?
Stephen Fuller: The answer to this question partially depennds on whose economy we are interested in. The Washington regional economy, our economy here locallly, benefits substanntiallly from federal spennding. Businesses here, federal contractors, have been capturing $.16 of every $1 dollar of federal procurement sapending nationally, so the more federral spending the better it is for the local economy. that is the main reason that the Washington area has the lowest unemployment rate among metro areas in the US and has had the brest job growth performance over the last 4 years of any major metro area. In the near term, deficit spending will have to be reduced or it will have a long term negative impact onn the national economy. Generaly, the Republicans are more pro business and better for the economy but actually the economy usually does what it wants and the president can not make too much of a difference unless something goes wrong.
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Washington, D.C.:
How much does the influx of tourists during the summer months help the city economy-wise?
Stephen Fuller: Toursim over the year is about 3-5% of the economy; inn comparison, the federal goverment and its $100 billion in local spending is about 33% of the economy. Tourism is important and provides 100,000 or so jobs, may of which do not require high skills and we need this jobs of the less educated workers. Its immportant but there are many other sectors that are more important. We do have more than 3 million jobs in the region.
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Washington, D.C.:
If you look at most large cities in the Northeast, heavy rail (MARC and VRE, in this region) is utilized much more extensively in the suburbs, while subways and light rail are limited to the more highly concentrated urban centers. Why is this not the case in the D.C. metropolitan area?
It seems to run counter to the accepted transit logic to have an urban subway, such as the Metro, running into the low density suburbs, such as Reston. By expending so much energy focusing on expanding suburban service, Metro seems to be ignoring the pressing need of providing more capacity to move people (employees, city dwellers, as well as tourists) around the city center.
Stephen Fuller: Public transportation plays an essential role in moving people in most large cities. Remember, the Washington area is the 5th largest metro area in the country and 4th largest by the nummber of jobs we have. The larger cities area older and were developing well before the auto become so domminant. LA is more like us than we are like New York, Chicago or Boston. So,, our development pattern was built first around the auto and fitting public transit of any type into the existing lanndscape is difficult. Rail to Dulles will be necessary to support that area's job growth; 1/3 pf all jobs in the Washinngton area added over the 90's, about 175,000, were added in that corridor and there will be about that many more new jobs in that corridor by 2010. Heavy or light rail, that's a big debate; too big for here.
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Falls Church, Va.:
As someone who supported the Potomac Yard site for a football/baseball stadium, I find it funny that all the NIMBYs who opposed that project are now lamenting the gridlock caused by the commercial/residential development of that area. Do you think a N. Va. baseball stadium will ever be built inside the Beltway?
Stephen Fuller: I,, too, supported the rail yard location for the footballl stadium. Unforturnately for baseball and Northern Virginia, there does not seem to be an acceptable site inside the Beltway outside of DC.
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Washington, D.C.:
You mentioned that when administrations change that it's good for the economy. Can you be more specific?
Stephen Fuller: There are about 2000 jobs that the incomming President controls. Those appointees losing their jobs do not all leave Washington, perhaps only half do. So,, the housing market is the major benneficiary but also the income and job base of the region benefits. New lobbists and others related to changes in conngress also may add some to the normal economic growth in an election year.
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Bethesda, Md:
It sometimes seems like the suburbs surrounding the District have overpowered and bypassed it in terms of population and wealth. Is this actually happening? Is there any quantitative way to measure the strength of the 'links' between the suburbs and the city?
Stephen Fuller: Your observation is widely held. The district houses 560,000 or so residents while the remainder of the area's 5.1 million live in the suburbs; it has 660,000 jobs while the other 2.5 million jobs are in the suburbs; during the decade of the 1990's, DC's population base and employment base declined so all of the 500,000 new jobs were in the suburbs as well as the 400,000 plus new residents. However, there is a very strong economic interpedency between the city and the suburbs. I have measured using an econometric model. Interestingly, for every $1 increase in the District's economy (its GDP so to speak), the economy of the Washington suburbs gains $1.53. This reflects the fact that 71% of the jobs in DC are held by suburban residents and most of the vendors supporting DC based businesses are in the suburbs. there are more that 66,000 hotel roomsd in the region, 27,000 are in DC so the hospitality sector attracted to DC's monuments spreads its benefits all over the suburbs. There are many other examples.
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Washington, D.C.:
There's been tremendous growth in downtown D.C., to a point where D.C. might take on all the negatives that a city like N.Y. has. When will D.C. say enough growth?
Also, Mayor Williams has been at the helm for a while now. Is he going to be mayor for life or do you see him moving on in the near future?
Stephen Fuller: DC has made great advances in the last 15 years as a livable city but in spite of all of the building and redevelopment, its population is still going down (very slowly) but still there are fewer residents today than in 2000 and its job base which declined in the 1990's has now stabilized and is growing very slowly. So, DC isn't all built out and will hopefully continue to improve.
The Major still has several years on his second term so he has not been around all that long in elective office. I think he has done a good job compared to some past mayors. Still, it is a hard job and i would expect that he will have a better offer when he gets tire of being mayor. I do not see his replacement standing in the wings, yet.
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Washington, D.C.:
You said Washington was more like LA than New York. That's the first time I've heard that. You mean the way the metro area is laid out? Car conscious?
Stephen Fuller: I mean its dependency on the auto and its geographic spread. The Washington area covers 5000 square miles, the District has 61. the spread out nature of the area reflects that it did most of its growing since WWII when the auto become the preferred way to get around. New York grew up around transit so transit could shape the land use patterns.
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Stephen Fuller: Thanks for the questions. I have enjoyed the conversation. The economy will be acclerating throough the year so stay tuned.
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