Iraq Handover
Shibley Telhami
Sadat Chair for Peace and Development, University of Maryland
Thursday, July 01, 2004; 3:00 p.m ET
Former Iraqi president Saddam Hussein appeared in Iraqi court for the first time since he was captured by U.S. forces in December. The former leader responded defiantly when informed of the charges against him at the hearing.
On Monday, the U.S. officially transferred political authority to an interim Iraqi government. In his recent Mercury News opinion piece, "Whose Iraq Is It?," Shibley Telhami, author of "The Stakes: America and the Middle East," highlights the concerns and perceptions of Arab countries regarding the handover. According to Telhami, criticism of Iraq's pervasive insecurity and infrastructure are "some of the latest signs of a loss of faith in the Middle East over U.S. intentions."
Telhami, professor and Sadat Chair for Peace and Development at the University of Maryland, will be online Thursday, July 1, at 3 p.m. ET, to discuss how the handover is perceived in the Middle East.
Submit your questions and comments before or during today's discussion.
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Shibley Telhami: Good aftenoon. I have been traveling in the Midlle East for the past couple of weeks, my third trip in as many months. I have also completed a public opinion survey in six Arab countries about perceptions of the Iraq issue, US foreign policy and other political and social matters. I have also viewed today on Arab television parts of the Saddam Hussein trial. It is always striking to observe the gap between perceptions in Washingon and perceptions in the Middle East. I was in Istanbul last week just before the NATO summit, and it is striking to observe the degree of Turkish public resentment of American foreign policy which increasing resembles that in most Arab countires. I would be glad to answer queswtions related to these issues as well as others pertaining to US policy in the Middle East.
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Treasury Dept, Washington, D.C.:
I believe the Arab culture respects power and force. Does the "Arab world", in some ways, see the U.S. humiliation of Hussein (capture and trail) as deamining to Arab culture and values -- maybe that's why there is such a negative backlash to the U.S. "occupation"?
Thanks for your answer.
Shibley Telhami: I think that you really have two questions here that are not necessarily related to each other, but they both are interesting. First, there is no evidence that Arabs in particular "respect" power more than others. In fact, it is clear from research that I have done with colleagues on patterns of action and reaction Arabs and Israelis that both tend to respond to power in kind and in patterns that are similar to other conflicts. There were certainly some analysts in our public discourse in Washington who argued before the war that the overwhelming use of force by the US in Iraq would make Arabs respect the US more. What's clear from my surveys is two things: that favorable views of the US in the Arab world are at an all time low and that most Arabs believe that the US is weaker today than it was before the war.
As for Saddam, you are correct in identifying something interesting here. Most Arabs today find it humiliating that the US, whom they don't trust, is the power behind putting an Arab leader on trial, even if he is a leader many don't like. It is also clear at the moment from my public opinion surveys that Saddam Hussein is far more popular in the Arab wrold than President Bush, which is one reason why Saddam Husseing cleverly made Bush an issue in his first apearance.
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Washington, D.C.:
We here talk from military and government sources about "Baathist hold-outs" or "remnants of Saddam's regime" making up some portion of the insurgency in Iraq. How much of a following does he actually still have in Iraq or elsewhere in the region?
Shibley Telhami: The short answer is that we don't fully know. There are certainly remnants of the Saddam regime who may be involved in organized attacks, but two other things are clear. First, there is broad opposition to US occupation, even among those who hated the Saddm Hussein regime, and some of them have obviously engaged Americn forces. Second, while there is no evidence that al-Qaeda and its close allies had any roots in Iraq before the war, they have been able to build a presence since. I think we are underestimating the issue of Iraqi nationalism and the extent to which the management of occupation has resulted in more enemies for the US.
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Athens, Ga.:
Do you anticipate any open disagreement/conflict between the interim government and US military forces in the next 6 months? If so, where (Najaf? Karbala? Fallujah?) and over what issue(s) do you believe such conflict will arise?
Shibley Telhami: This is a good and important question. To begin with, most people in the Middle East, acording to my sureys, do not believe that the Iraqi government is truly sovereign. Most Iraqis today believe the war was unjustified. Most in the reason believe that Iraqis are worse off today then they were before the war. These numbers present serious challenges to the new Iraqi government which has been put together in the shadow of the American-British occupation. For the government to gain significant legitimacy, it has to provide significant improvements in local security and in the economy. On the other hand, it must show itself to be independent from the US without which it probably could not survive. This sets up several tests in the coming weeks and months. Here are two examples: 1) If you have another horrible scene like the mutilation of the Americans in Fallujah, will the American response be similar to the earlier one, which would truly undermine the Iraqi government's legitimacy, or will it be muted and then test American public support for the US presence? 2) Will there be a truly free election campaign in which aspiring politicians might feel that their legitimacy might be enhanced by the degree to which they criticize the United States? One can think of many other such tests.
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Kennesaw, Ga.:
Dr. Telhami, many thanks for doing this chat.
Some American press commentary on Saddam Hussein's forthcoming trial has spoken of a process going into a lengthy list of human rights and other offenses and lasting over a period of years. It is hard for me to believe any Iraqi court would want the process to drag out that long, or would be able to even if it wanted to.
How long would you guess it will be before Hussein's trial is concluded and judgement rendered? What do you see as the political consequences of this trial in Iraq?
Shibley Telhami: Saddam Hussein's trial is likely to have many twists and some unpredictable consequences. Many of the human rights organizations who have been among the first around the world to call attention to Saddam Hussein's acts in the eighies and ninties have argued that the trial should be conducted by an international tribunal and otherwise it would not send the right message to people around the world who are hoping for justice. In addition, if a trial had to be held by an Iraqi government, many feel it should be an elected Iraqi government, not one appointed under conditions of occupation. So the degree to which this trial will seem fair is already questionable even as teh trial begins. Moreover, having come more than a year after teh war and with public opinion in Iraq, in the Middle East, and indeed, in most of the world, soured toward the United States, the trial could also provide critics of the United States with a forum, even as it will also provide a window into some of the crimes of the Saddam Hussein regime.
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Florham Park, NJ:
What is the general Arab perception of the handover of Saddam Hussein to Iraq?
Shibley Telhami: In the survey I conducted in Egypt, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Morocco, Lebanon and Jordan, most Arabs said that the transfer of soerignty to Iraq is not genuine and that it was merely a cover for continued American occupation Most believed that Iraqis are worse off today than they were before the war. Most believe that teh US went to war not for democracy or to eliminate WMD but to control oil, help Israel, and weaken the Muslim world. These are not good numbers.
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New York, N.Y.:
What exactly do people not like about American policy. Is it our invasion of Iraq? Or is it because we only appear to be concerned with territories with which we have a an interest.
Shibley Telhami: There are generally three issues related to increasing American resentment in Arab and Muslim countries and a fourth that is more globla in nature. Let wme begin with the fourth. It is important tot remind ourselves that anti-Americanism todya is widespread in most regions around the world including western Europe and it has gotten significantly worse over the past few years. Some of that has to do with percieved American unilateralism in a way that has infuriated many. But in Arab and Muslim countries its worse because of percieved intent to confront Muslims, not just terrorists. This perception is really growing even in freindly countries like Turkey. Second, the Iraq issue is humiliating to most because it was conducted against the ezpressed opinion of most in the region that the war wnt against their wishes and interests and in many wasys they feel that events since have proven them right. Third, the Arab-Israeli issue remains "the prism of pain" through wihich most Arabs see the US. In my surveys, majorities in several Arab countries ranked it as the single most important issue to them.
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Washington, DC:
Hello and thank you. Can you share some ideas from these Arab countries that would create some positive change in their view of us? I want to be able to contribute to working towards a change, rather than just sitting back and blaming Bush, voting in a Democrat, or throwing my hands up in dispair. Tell me, what would be the top 3 actions or gestures that would help us to be viewed more favorably?
Shibley Telhami: Let me say at the outset that both sides need to do a lot. But as an American let me say what we can do. First, we have to regain the moral high ground which we have lost in the past two years both because we are perceived to ignore international organizations and because of events in Iraq including painful episodes like the Abu Ghraib prison. Second, we have to return to the posture of the first few weeks after the horrific 9/11 attacks when our government made clear that our fight is with al-Qaeda and not with Muslims in general. We have been unable to mainitain that posture since. Third, we need to make clear in specific terms that we intend to withdraw from Iraq as soons as a viable government takes contol, even if that government is not to our liking. Fourth, I remain convinced that the shortest cut to the hearts of the people in the region is through the Arab-Israeli conflict. In the year 2000 when the US was attempting to bring about Arab-Israeli peasce in a credible way, over 60% of Saudis expressed confidence in the US. Today confidence is in the single digit. Unless we make a good faith, credible, and fair effort to mediate Arab-Israeli peace that revives hope, our policy in the region will remain troubled.
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Alexandria, Va.:
Do the Kurds in Iraq want to be part of Iraq?
Kurds are so unlike Arabs, and their language is so different, doesn't it make sense to allow Iraqi Kurdistan to leave Iraq?
Shibley Telhami: The Kurdish issue is perhaps the most significant internal issue in Iraq. It is also in many ways most consequential for Iraq's neighbors, especially Turkey, Iran and Syria, all of whom have significant Turkish population. In fact, one can argue that while significant religious and sometimes cultural differences exist between Shia and Sunni Arabs, both these groups have strong Arab and Iraqi identies, but not with most Kurds. The Kurds have benefitted a lot from the removal of Saddam Hussein, and they have benefitted in teh past decade, following the Kuwait war in 1991 as they have acquied more autonomy. they have legitimate national aspirations as a people with a distinct culturea dn language, concentrated in a specific geographic area. Certainly they want maximum autonomy. Many Iraqis and neighboring states fear that they ultimately seek independence. Most other Irais, including the Shite majority do not support independence for the Kurds, and neighboring countries fear that independence could affect the aspirations of their own Kurdish populations. This issue is likely to provide another improtant test for the Iraqi government and for the US in the coming months and years.
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Shibley Telhami:
It's been a pleasure to engage in dialogue with washingtonpost.com readers and I look forward to another occassion.
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