Outlook: 2004 Crystal Ball
Tucker Carlson
CNN Political Analyst
Tuesday, November 02, 2004; Noon ET
In Sunday's Washington Post, 13 political wizards share their predictions for who will come out on top on election day in the 12th annual Outlook Crystal Ball Competition. Each participant predicts who will win the presidency (both in the electoral college and by popular vote), which party will rule the House and Senate, which party will control the most state houses and which presidential candidate will carry Florida.
Defending Crystal Ball champion Tucker Carlson, political analyst and co-host of CNN's "Crossfire," was online Tuesday, Nov. 2 at Noon ET to discuss the upcoming election and his picks in this year's contest.
The transcript follows
Editor's Note: washingtonpost.com moderators retain editorial control
over Live Online discussions and choose the most relevant questions for guests and hosts; guests and hosts can decline to answer questions.
Austin, Tex.:
Tucker,
This race is so close to call that it seems everyone has an idea as to what might sway the election. From weather to the NFL,to cell phone babies and the rest, is it really that all encompassing or is it just the citizenry's need for something to talk about? Who do you see swaying the election and what issue outside of Iraq and the economy will do it?
Tucker Carlson: I think Iraq is the issue. Fifty years, when the history of 2004 is written, from now many of the debates we now consider deeply significasnt -- health care, stem cell research -- will rate as footnotes. Iraq will be its own chapter. It's a big deal. If Bush loses, it's because of Iraq, and that seems fair to me.
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Centerville, Tenn.:
Do you really think John Kerry is going to win? Why?
Tucker Carlson: Yes, I really think that. I hope I'm wrong. Kerry has two things going for him: The occupation of Iraq, which is going badly and therefore hurts Bush; and the intensity of his voters. A lot of Democrats really, really hate Bush. They're voting in huge numbers as a result.
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Washington, D.C.:
What would you say to the claim that the most important outcome of this election is not who wins the presidency, but which party takes (or retains) control of Congress?
Tucker Carlson: Less true than it's ever been. War makes presidents more powerful.
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New Orleans, La.:
How is Minnesota, with a long and rich Democratic history, such a close state? Hubert Humphrey and Paul Wellstone are turning over in their graves, I'm sure.
Tucker Carlson: Because Minnesota isn't just Minneapolis.
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Richmond, Va.:
This time on election day, polls open/no news, is like the blackout period when the astronauts are returning to earth. What early signs should we be looking for to see how the election is shaping up?
Tucker Carlson: You should be looking at exit polls, like everyone at the networks is. The only problem is, we won't show them to you. So you'll have to go to Drudge to find out.
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Woodberry Forest, Va.:
There are definite signs of cracking in the union between old-guard Republicans, neocons, and evangelicals. Will the GOP be more divided by a Bush victory or a Kerry victory?
Tucker Carlson: Definitely by a Kerry victory. One of the great unwritten stories of the last four years is the degree to which the Bush White House controls the Republican Party. There is dissent within the party, but it almost never gets aired publicly. That'll change is Bush loses.
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Silver Spring, Md.:
Do you think the current polarizqation will force the two parties to select more centrist presidential candidates in the future?
Tucker Carlson: I don't see how they could pick more centrist candidates than they have. Both Bush and Kerry agree that free trade and high levels of immigration are good, that we should "stay the course" in Iraq, even that Roe v. Wade ought to remain law. In other words, they agree on far too many things for my taste. Debate is good. We need more. Howard Dean, the only semi-plausible non-centrist candidate on either side, probably would have lost to Bush, but at least he would have forced an argument on the issues we need to argue about.
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Lewisville, N.C.:
Hi Tucker,
The electorate is so polarized it's ripping the magnets off of my refrigerator.
Given the extreme rhetoric on both sides, isn't it true that the next president is going to find it hard to achieve bipartisanship? I could see Kerry reaching across and making some key appointments (McCain for Secretary of Defense, for example). How would Bush, who can't (let's admit it) admit a mistake going to be able to bring this country together again?
Tucker Carlson: The winner needs to take a majority of the popular vote, somerthing that hasn't happened since 1988. That's the single most important thing either candidate could do to calm the country. A majority of the vote equals a mandate.
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Boston, Mass.:
I saw you on the Chris Matthews show this weekend. You seemed calm, reasonable, lucid and respectful. Are you just playing a part on Crossfire? I can respect that if you are, I realize it wouldn't be fair if you were being calm and honest and Bagala was ranting rhetoric without any reference to fact.
Tucker Carlson: I always say exactly what I think is true. I'm not sophisticated enough to play a role. I get heated on Crossfire because I'm offended by some of the rhetoric that gets thrown around: Bush stole the election, Halliburton controls America, etc... It's just so dumb, I get mad. Sorry.
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Washington, D.C.:
Do you think there is any possible way that this election will be decided by tonight? Doesn't it seem almost unavoidable that legal challenges etc. will delay the final outcome?
Tucker Carlson: My gut feeling is, we'll have a sense of who's winning by late afternoon, and we'll know for sure by tonight. That's just a guess, though I think the reported turnout levels suggest a definitive victory.
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Woodbridge, Va.:
How does it feel to be the only one in the Crystal Ball competition to go against type in your prediction?
Tucker Carlson: I never thought about it until Sunday night when I was taking my kids trick-or-treating and a woman I'd never seen before barked at me for "endorsing Kerry in the Washington Post." I tried to explain the difference between a prediction and a desire, but I think it was lost on her. Again, I don't want Kerry to win, I just think he will.
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Birmingham, Ala.:
I agree Iraq is a big issue and that President Bush has lost some traction, but what do you think will the recent Bin Laden will have on voters today?
Tucker Carlson: Probably not much effect either way. Though I do think it's amazing that Osama's a Michael Moore fan. Talk about confirmation.
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Arlington, Va.:
Wait a second..."a majority of the polpular vote equals a mandate"? That seems like a stretch to me. Doesn't a true national mandate require at least something on the order or 55-60 percent? I don't think a 51-49 split should be considered a mandate by anyone. I think part of the reason why those of us on the left hate Bush so much was the arrogant way he claimed a mandate when there was none after the last election to force through his agenda without consensus.
Tucker Carlson: 55 is more convincing than 51, but both are mandates, by definition. Both Clinton and Bush governed in a fairly moderate way, but neither was seen as fully legitimate by his enemies. "How can he be my president if he only got 43 percent of the vote?" That's what a lot of people thought about Clinton from the beginning. Obviously Bush started out with a similar disadvantage.
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Orange County, Calif.:
Hi Tucker,
What do you think about all of the negative rhetoric that Republicans have receieved in regards to disenfranchised voters?
Tucker Carlson: Two weeks before every presidential election, Democrats accuse Republicans of racism. They do it in order to motivate the black vote. Apparently it works. I think it's revolting.
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Columbus, Ohio:
Serious question: Regardless of what you think about Jon Stewart, his show, or the way he confronted you on Crossfire, what do you think of the argument that he was trying (unsuccessfully, perhaps) to get accross?
Tucker Carlson: I didn't really understand his argument, though I listened carefully and talked to him for the better part of an hour after the show. If the point is, Crossfire reduces complicated arguments to soundbites, of course I agree. It does and we do. If his complaint is that we're too loud and occasionally nasty, I won't even offer a defense. That's fair criticism.
But he seemed to be arguing that our show, half an hour a day at 4:30 pm, somehow singlehandedly distorts the democratic process. Please. That's not a serious or interesting point, and in any case he never explained how we manage to do that. I hope I don't sound defensive; I'm the first to criticize our show. I just wasn't impressed by his critique, at all.
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Anonymous:
"Two weeks before every presidential election, Democrats accuse Republicans of racism. They do it in order to motivate the black vote. Apparently it works. I think it's revolting"
Do the Republicans use any similar tactics to get their base motivated?
Tucker Carlson: They don't accuse anyone of racism, as far as I know.
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New York:
What will be the impact of the republican GOTV efforts? Republicans were already more likely to vote anyway, so can these efforts possibly have as much of an impact as Democratic ones? And what about the rain in Michigan and Ohio? That always holds down Dem turnout. Will it this time?
Tucker Carlson: Both sides have remarkable turnout operations this year. (Just about every other person in my neighborhood took time off work this week to volunteer for one of the parties in a swing state.) But I still think Democrats have the advantage. For days we've been hearing about people waiting for hours in line to vote early. I don't don't think those are Republicans.
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Pittsburgh, Pa.:
Tucker, I like you am a Bush supporter who thinks that Kerry is going to win today. If we're right, where do you think the President went wrong in this campaign?
Tucker Carlson: He invaded Iraq. If Bush hadn't done that, does anyone doubt he'd be reelected easily?
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Nairobi, Kenya:
Mr. Carlson,
Thanks for your views. Very well put.
What does a Kerry or Bush victory portend for Africa? Or will be it more rhetoric and less action. Will we see the US seek new energy sources in Africa due to a probable volatile Middle East conflict?
Thank You.
Oh, by the way, most of Africa is for Kerry.
Tucker Carlson: There's a lot of oil and gas in Africa, no doubt. The problem is, most of it is controlled by governments that are corrupt and horrible even by Middle Eastern standards.
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Washington, D.C.:
Hey, Tucker. Always good to talk to another bow tie aficionado.
It's been said that if the Democrats lose today, it will represent a sea change in American politics, and the party will either have to change or face a gradual extinction. If Kerry loses, where do you see the Democratic Party going from here?
Tucker Carlson: "If Kerry loses, the Democratic Party will fold in on itself like a black hole. It'll cease to exist."
That's what a Democratic operative friend of mine called to tell me this morning at 7:05 am. He's probably right. And it might be a good thing. Kerry's campaign is all about hating Bush, and that may prove an effective message in the short term. But loathing the incumbent does not amount to an ideology, much less a governing agenda. At some point, you've got to decide what you believe. The Democratic Party hasn't done that. Losing might give them the opportunity.
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Alexandria, Va.:
Hi Tucker,
If Bush losses, how do you think history will view him? I know the question is a bit of a stretch, but I'm interested in your opinion on this. Thanks
Tucker Carlson: As a decent but not very self-confident man who was elected in one age and governed in another, and whose presidency was defined by the decision to invade Iraq.
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Tulsa, Okla.:
Who do you think will win the US Senate race in Oklahoma, and how will it impact the overall make-up of the Senate?
Tucker Carlson: I'll be amazed is Carson wins, just because it is Oklahoma, but it sounds like he might. I still think the GOP controls the Senate.
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Philadelphia, Pa.:
Tucker,
To what degree do you think that new
young voters such as college students
will have an effect on the election?
Tucker Carlson: Looks like this could be the first election ever where college students -- in other words, Jon Stewart's viewers --have a significant effect on the outcome. I'm not sure what I think of that.
I'm going to go try to find an exit poll. Thanks a lot for having me.
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Washington, D.C.:
Hating Clinton was the basis of the Republican Party for years, wasn't it?
Tucker Carlson: Yes. And it hurt the Republican Pqarty. Let that be a lesson to you.
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