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Elections in Israel
Israeli Perspective
With Joel Rosenberg
Author and former advisor to Israeli prime minister Benjamin Nettanyahu
Wednesday, Jan. 29, 2003; 2 p.m. ET
Prime Minister Ariel Sharon won a decisive victory in Israel's election Tuesday, gaining an overwhelming endorsement for his harsh military crackdown on the Palestinian uprising and his tough response to terrorist attacks against Israeli civilians. What will happen to the peace process? How will this play into the U.S. role in both peace negotiations and possible military action in Iraq?
Joel C. Rosenberg, political columnist, author of the bestselling novel, "The Last Jihad," and former advisor to Israeli prime minister
Benjamin Nettanyahu, will be online Wednesday, Jan. 29, at 2 p.m. ET, to discuss what the elections mean for Israelis.
The transcript follows below.
Editor's Note: Washingtonpost.com moderators retain editorial control
over Live Online discussions and choose the most relevant questions for guests and hosts; guests and hosts can decline to answer questions.
Joel C. Rosenberg: Dramatic events this week in the Middle East. Chief UN Inspector Hans Blix issued a devastating indictment of Saddam Hussein regime's refusal to come clean on weapons of mass destruction. President Bush issued a powerful, sobering explanation to the American people, Congress and the world why we may be forced to go to war to disarm Iraq and end the Saddam regime. And the Israeli people overwhelmingly reelected the Likud party in a landslide the even stunned most Israeli political analysts. A lot to chew on as the world moves to the brink of war.
Bristow, Va.:
Joel, great novel, first of all. What has been the media's role in Sharon's win, including his speech getting cut off in mid-sentence for suddenly being judged as political?
And what did you think of US media coverage, like the Post today saying the win endorses a "harsh crackdown"?
Joel C. Rosenberg: Thanks for your kind words about THE LAST JIHAD. As for the media's coverage of the Israeli elections, it is routinely discouraging but rarely surprising. The liberal media really despises the Likud Party, whether it is led by Ariel Sharon or Bibi Netanyahu or Yitzhak Shamir in the early 1990s. But despite the media bias in Israel and the U.S., Israelis understand the existential threat they face both from Saddam Hussein and the homicide bomber regime led by Yasser Arafat. They are looking for a leader to keep their children safe. They are looking for boldness. Toughness. Decisiveness. They chose Sharon. That's what democracy is all about.
Buford, Ga.:
Do you think the dramatic ending to your recent book is a very likely scenario now?
Joel C. Rosenberg: I pray that the last chapter of THE LAST JIHAD never comes true. But the next few weeks could be the bloodiest and most apocalyptic in modern history. It is not precisely clear what Saddam Hussein has and doesn't have. The Bush Team is 97% to 98% sure they know what weapons of mass destruction Saddam possesses. But then there's the X Factor -- the shadowy unknown. And what we don't know could be the most horrifying of all.
There are some unconfirmed reports that Saddam may have two or three Russian tactical nuclear warheads. Again, this is not known for sure. If he does, however, is Saddam playing rope-a-dope with the U.S.? Is he drawing us into a conflict he then plans to turn into a nuclear holocaust? What if he makes a preemptive strike against Israel? The questions are chilling. But these are the questions the President is considering at this very hour.
Chesapeake, Va.:
Joel
As an evengelical Protestant Christian, an insightful writer and leader, as well as a lover of Israel and the Jewish people, what is your perspective on Christians (Catholic, Orthodox, Coprtic,as well as evangelical protestants) in the Holy Land -- not only Israel but the entire geographical area.They sometimes seem to be an overlooked persecuted people. They face the hostility of militant Islam and -- unfortunately, they are often overlooked by the leaders of Israel.
Joel C. Rosenberg: Thanks for your question. It's a very important one. Christians are indeed an incredibly persecuted minority in the modern Middle East. Palestinian evangelical Christians face terrrible persecution. They live "between two fires," as one author puts it -- the fire of the Israeli military and the radical Islamic Palestinian terrorist cells/Arafat regime.
It is true that I am an evangelical Christian. I'm actually from an Orthodox Jewish background. My family escaped out of Russian Czarist persecution of the Jews in Minsk in the early part of the 20th century. As I was growing up, I found myself fascinated with Jewish prophecies of who the Messiah would one day be. I found in the Book of Micah that the Messiah would be born in Bethlehem. I found in the Book of Isaiah that the Messiah would be born of a virgin and live and minister to people in Galilee. I found in the Psalms (Psalm 22) that the Messiah would suffer and die by having his hands and feet pierced. As a 17 year old, I was no rocket scientist. But it was very clear to me that the Jewish prophets were pointing one person, Jesus of Nazareth. I became a believer in Jesus as the Messiah at that point, and it has radically transformed my life and my worldview.
Washington, D.C.:
What is the appeal of Sharon? What is his plan for peace, other than continued brutality toward the Palestinians? As long as the settlements continue and grow, Israel can't claim the occupation is about security. It sickens me that my tax dollars are funding Israel's expansionist dreams. washingtonpost.com:
Sharon Wins Big In Israel (Post, Jan. 29, 2003)
Joel C. Rosenberg: Excellent question. Sharon's appeal is singular -- he's not a brilliant Wall Street economist, or a Hollywood movie star, or a Churchillian orator. He's tough. He's tough and he's immovable and he won't take any crap from homidical terrorists who seek the annihilation of his people. It's a pretty powerful political posture in a country where teenagers fear to go to Pizza Hut because they might never come home.
Is Sharon a leader likely to negotiate a final peace treaty with the Palestinians? Not likely. But neither is Yasser Arafat. They are transitional figures.
Wheaton, Md.:
Isn't it true that the Arabs will never accept Israel regardless of the government? After all, the Arabs were committed to destroying Israel long before Israel liberated the West Bank and Gaza Strip. Where was this goal of statehood for Palestinians in the West Bank and Gaza prior to 1967 when Jordan and Egypt occupied these areas?
Joel C. Rosenberg: This is an age-old question. But in some ways it is already being answered. Egypt made peace with Israel. Jordan made peace with Israel. I believe the time will come that the Palestinians make peace with Israel -- though not with Arafat running the show. It is absolutely critical to achieving peace, however, that concessions not be made to terrorists and terrorism. The Bush Administration has wisely concluded that no peace can be achieved with Arafat in power and have called upon the Palestinian people to replace him and create the first true Arab democracy.
President Bush reiterated the call for a Palestinian democracy just last night. It was bold. It was controversial. It was also very wise.
New York, N.Y.:
Could Sharon pull a Nixon and pull off a historic agreement with the Palenstinians? Would he ever agree to a pre-1967 proposal?
Joel C. Rosenberg: It's possible, but not likely. I think Ariel Sharon's role in history will most likely to do the unpleasant but absolutely critical task of sending the Israeli Defense Forces into the West Bank and Gaza to track, capture and imprison (or kill) the leaders and operatives of the terrorist cells and networks that Arafat allows to roam free. That is messy. That is not good television. But that is one of the roles a national leader must accept and excel at -- they must protect their people from homicide bombers and those who fund and train and deploy such bombers. President Bush is doing this for us. Sharon is doing this for the Israelis. Again, it's not pretty. But free societies cannot exist without security.
Once Sharon achieves this level of operational security, I believe other Israeli leaders will arise who are ready to make peace with a moderate Arafat successor. I certainly hope this is the case and why I take Psalm 122:6 very seriously -- "Pray for the peace of Jerusalem."
Vacaville, Calif.:
Now that Sharon has won the election how do the Palastians forsee their future?
washingtonpost.com:
Palestinians Say Sharon Victory a Threat to Gaza (Post, Jan. 29, 2003)
Joel C. Rosenberg: Good question. It requires understanding that there is no broad, monolithic entity known as "the Palestinians." There are many different views among the Palestinians, as there are many different views and political parties in Israel.
Radical Islamic Palestinian terrorists obviously like Sharon to be in power because it helps them mobilize (in their convoluted thinking even justify) more murderous operations.
Moderate Palestinian businessmen hate Sharon to be in power because they fear it will be more back-and-forth violence, as sadly it probably will for awhile.
Most Palestinians hate and fear Israelis. But I don't believe that means they all want to be in an eternal, no-winner, bloody, exhausting war with the Israelis. And this is a critical difference. Did the French love the Germans immediately after World War II? Of course not. id the Koreans or Russians or Chinese love the Japanese after World War II? Of course not. But once the German and Japanese leaders who caused the war were gone -- once Germany and Japan became newfound democracies -- people may not have loved each other, but they learned to live and trade and tolerate each other.
History offers us a sketchy roadmap out of the current crisis. I believe new pro-democracy leadership in Palestine could begin to move both sides towards a true and lasting peace.
Washington, D.C.:
I have just returned from Palestine and saw first hand the complete destruction of Palestine by Israel, turning the West Bank into prison-like reservations surrounded by settlements. Do you think that there is any possibilty of establishing a sovereign Palestine? If so, what solution can you offer?
Joel C. Rosenberg: I'm heading to Israel and Palestine very soon, hopefully before the war with Iraq erupts. In Washington, I recently spent time with two Palestinian Christians who just arrived from Bethlehem. The situation there is very sad, very tense, very troubling. But there will not be a negotiated solution until the homicide bombers stop. Period. End of story.
All the polls in Israel show that Israelis desparately want to make a final deal with the Palestinians -- upwards of 54% to 58% say they're ready to make a deal...but only when two conditions are met: 1) the Palestinian homicide bombings and terrorism cease entirely; and 2) Arafat is replaced by a moderate, democratically elected Palestinian.
These are two entirely reasonable preconditions. I believe they will happen. I don't know when. But until Palestinians decisively choose a leader who will passionately pursue peace AND prosperity, they will continue to live under Arafat's oppressive regime.
Derwood, Md.:
Isn't it true that the Palestinan Authority will never be a "democracy"? Will the Palestinian Authority ever hold an election of their own, or will they join the long line of Arab dictatorships?
Joel C. Rosenberg: There is plenty of reason for cynicism and skepticism. But the fascinating untold story -- indeed, a story I'll begin to tell in the sequel to THE LAST JIHAD -- is that a Palestinian opposition movement to Arafat is arising. It is gaining size and strength. It is gaining moral clarity and courage. And it is beginning to gain political notice in Washington.
True Palestinian democrats (small "d") MUST be encouraged. They must be given forums to speak -- even when they are deeply critical of the U.S. and Israel. Arafat's regime imprisons, exiles or kills most democratic activists. All the more reason we must support them and help their voices be heard here, around the world, and particularly back in the West Bank and Gaza.
Tulsa, Okla.:
If we go to war with Iraq, and Iraq attacks Israel, what do you think Israel's response would be?
Joel C. Rosenberg: Your question goes to the heart of the novel I wrote -- THE LAST JIHAD -- and why I think it has soared to #7 on the New York Times bestseller list and #4 on the Wall Street Journal bestseller list. What if Saddam Hussein goes nuclear? Or tries to? What if he tries to attack Israel preemptively? What would Israel do? What would we do? I hope you'll have the chance to read the novel and see what I think might happen in the worst case scenario.
Providence, R.I.:
Mr. Goldberg:
After tabulating yesterday's results (and
accounting for Shinui being more serious
about its no-religious coalition plank,
than Labor's no coalition), it appears
Sharon can either build a Likud-Labor-
Shas coalition or a hard-right coalition
with nearly every coalition member
holding a quasi-veto on his actions.
In this first case, PM Sharon's preference,
Labor still holds a veto. Has the political
dynamic actually changed despite Likud's
major numerical gains vis-a-vis Labor? washingtonpost.com:
Sharon Wins Big In Israel (Post, Jan. 29, 2003)
Joel C. Rosenberg: The results of yesterday's elections were fascinating. Likud gained a whopping 18 Knesset seats to now hold a total of 37. Labor dropped 7 seats from 26 to 19. Shinui (which means "change" in Hebrew) skyrocketed from 6 seats to 15. Labor is really on the edge of imploding, especially since it's leaders say they won't join a national unity government with Likud.
I hesitate to predict -- but it's going to be fascinating to watch and I'm heading to Jerusalem soon to see it up-close-and personal and report on it for WORLD magazine (see www.worldmag.com).
Gullsgate Minn.:
Joel R.:How can Palestinians ever get "forums to speak" if they can't even get out of their homes to have an election without fear of being blown to bits?
Joel C. Rosenberg: For now, this responsibility largely falls on Palestinians outside of the region -- those living in the U.S. and Europe who can give speeches, go on radio and television and meeting with U.S. and other world leaders and journalists.
Joel C. Rosenberg: The next few weeks pose some of the most interesting and dangerous in the history of the modern Middle East. We've run out of time to answer more questions for now. But thank you for all those who participated -- please check out my weekly political column on www.worldmag.com. Thanks!
washingtonpost.com:
That wraps up today's show. Thanks to everyone who joined the
discussion.
Stay Tuned to Live Online:
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