Michael Dobbs Washington Post Monday, July 07, 2003; 1:00 p.m ET
What does President Bush plan to accomplish during his trip to Africa? How does the administration plan to step the AIDS epidemic that has swept the continent? Will Bush send U.S. peacekeeping troops to Liberia? Washington Post staff writer Michael Dobbs was online to take questions on President Bush's trip to Africa The transcript follows Editor's Note: Washingtonpost.com moderators retain editorial control over Live Online discussions and choose the most relevant questions for guests and hosts; guests and hosts can decline to answer questions.
|
New York, N.Y.: Which five countries will George Bush visit in Africa?
Michael Dobbs: He flies to Senegal this evening, then to South Africa, Botswana, Uganda, and ends his trip in Nigeria on Saturday.
________________________________________________
Philomath, Ore.: Is it true that President planned to visit South Africa and see Nelson Mandella, and that Nelson Mandella said he would refuse to meet with George W. Bush?
Michael Dobbs: According to the administration, Bush wanted to meet with Mandela, but Mandela already had a prior engagement somewhere else. I don't know whether this was a "diplomatic" excuse or a real excuse.
________________________________________________
Arlington, Va.:
What in your view will have to happen or be accomplished for this presidential visit to be considered a success?
Michael Dobbs: There is always a lot of symbolism about such visits. Most of the real work is done before and afterward at a lower level. I think that the African leaders will be looking for real commitments as opposed to nice rhetoric, e.g. U.S. troops in Liberia and actual funding of the programs that the President has promised on AIDS and economic development. So far, as I suggested in my article, many of these programs exist mainly on paper.
________________________________________________
Arlington, Va.: Granted, I have not been following the situation closely, but why is Liberia an American issue? Shouldn't this fall under the umbrella of the UN or some other pan-nation organization?
I feel like the world wants it both ways, stay out of some nations (Iraq), but go solve those people's problems (Liberia).
Michael Dobbs: As the administration recognizes, Liberia is the African country with the closest ties to the United States, as it was settled by freed slaves back in 1822. During the Cold War period, Liberia was the largest recipient of U.S. aid, and a focal point of U.S. efforts to stop the spread of communism in West Africa. Other former colonial powers, such as France, Belgium, and Britain, have sent troops to end civil wars in their former colonies. While Liberia was not exactly a colony of the U.S., the European countries are arguing that it is a U.S. responsibility, and Bush seems to have accepted that argument.
________________________________________________
Whiteriver, Ariz.: Why is he going on to Africa? For what purpose.
Michael Dobbs: I think the administration wants to demonstrate that its foreign policy rests on more than crude military power, and is also based on values and compassion. In addition, Africa has assumed greater strategic importance since 9/11: it has become part of the war on terrorism. And there is a sizable lobbying group in the U.S. pushing the President to pay attention to Africa, made up of business groups, evangelical Christians, and African-Americans. I think all these factors played a role in persuading Bush to go to AFrica in his first term.
________________________________________________
Inkster, Mich.: Hello Mr. Dobbs. Do you think this trip to Africa has anything to do with Mr. Bush reelections efforts to attract more than the 8 to 9 percent African-American votes he received in 2000. Thanks you for your time and answer.
Michael Dobbs: See my answer above. Yes, I think the African-American vote is a factor, but not a decisive one. It seems unlikely that he will do much better among African-Americans next time around. But perhaps the pollsters know better....The bottom line is that, as with everything else the WH does, political considerations are a consideration.
________________________________________________
Lyme, Conn.: My understanding is the situation in Liberia is utter chaos. It has been written that people, including children, are shooting with little purpose other than immediate survival. The soldiers you are shooting with during the day may be the people you are shooting at during the night. Thus, it may be hard to negotiate a ceasefire amongst the various sides in the fighting when the sides are hard to distinguish. If President Bush sends troops into Liberia, will he have a plan to end the violence, and will he send in enough troops to keep the peace?
Michael Dobbs: There is a U.S. military team in Liberia right now looking at the issues you raise. Most Liberians say that U.S. troops will be welcomed in Liberia with open arms, and will not face the kind of guerrilla war they faced in Somalia, and are beginning to encounter in Iraq. But who really knows? Some experts believe that it will be foolish to count on a warm welcome.
________________________________________________
Burtonsville, Md.: The US public is wondering why Liberia? Do you think that this is simply a matter of timing due to the African trip, or is the administration sincerely concerned about the Liberian crisis?
Michael Dobbs: I think the way the White House is handling Liberia has certainly been affected by the coincidence of the PResident's first trip to Africa. If the U.S. refused to do anything, he would have been dogged by the Liberian question throughout his trip. So they have sent a signal that they will do something. Exactly what they will do is still unclear, although expectations have now been built up that they will send around 2,000 troops.
________________________________________________
Washington, D.C.: Is the issue of Europe's subsidies of agricultural products and its objections to the use of (U.S.) bioengineered crops likely to be an important issue during the President's trip?
Michael Dobbs: This is the kind of issue that usually gets addressed at a lower level, although the general issue of trade will certainly come up.
________________________________________________
Washington, D.C.: I believe strongly in the importance of encouraging local entrepreneurship and small businesses in Africa in order for the continent to become more prosperous, self-reliant, and peaceful. Do you foresee that the President’s recently announced initiatives (HIV/AIDS and the Millennium Challenge Accounts, among others) will mark a shift from aid approaches that have largely failed to those that promote economic and social development in a truly sustainable and meaningful way?
Thank you.
Michael Dobbs: The Millenium challenge account is designed to reward those countries that have made progress toward economic development and democracy, and therefore act as an incentive to those countries that are pursuing what the administration regards as "bad policies". Because there are relatively few such "success stories" in Africa, AFrica will be getting a relatively small share of the $5 billion promised for the Millenium Challenge Account. A vigorous debate is underway among aid experts as to whether rewarding the successful makes more sense that helping the most desparate.
________________________________________________
Arlington, Va.: What are the fifty or so African countries doing? Why they can't intervene in Liberia or Africa with their own peacekeeping force? There is plenty of unemployed manpower to fill a few divisions. Instead of stacking their moneys abroad they could use it for humane and constructive purposes. African must face their responsibilities and the US should stop nursing them.
Michael Dobbs: West AFrican countries will be sending around 3,000 troops to Liberia. Their argument is that the U.S. needs to take the lead for the peacekeeping mission to have any authority. Also, Liberians trust U.S. soldiers more than much less disciplined troops from neighboring African countries. But you raise a philosophical question about help and self-help that is worth debating....
________________________________________________
Baltimore, Md.: Is the Congo anywhere on the White House's radar screen? And if not, why not?
Michael Dobbs: Part of the deal here is that the French and the Belgians get to do Congo, while the U.S. does Liberia. Bush is pointedly staying away from Congo during his visit, although he will be visiting Uganda, which is right next door.
________________________________________________
Washington, D.C.: Is President Bush going to echo Clinton's call for "trade, not aid" with sub-Sahara African nations?
Michael Dobbs: Trade is certainly a big part of the administration's mantra. However, as I pointed out in my article today, for a Republican president, Bush has shown a surprising interest in aid, even if much of the aid is designed as an incentive rather than a bailout. He has also increased funds for tackling the HIV-AIDS crisis.
________________________________________________
Silver Spring, Md.: I am a Nigerian American and I have been observing Bush politically for some time. At first I thought of him as any other Republican leader -- not care caring about black issues. But, President Bush has pleasantly surprised me. If he continues on this path, he will get my vote next time. Am I alone on this observation?
Michael Dobbs: Your reaction is interesting. Perhaps I was wrong in my answer to the previous question doubting that Bush will get a larger share of the African-American vote in 2004 than he did in 2000. I too would be interested to know whether other African-Americans are changing their view of the President.
________________________________________________
Washington, D.C.: How were the five countries selected for the Presidential visit? Specifically, why wasn't Kenya selected? (I am a Kenyan.)
Michael Dobbs: I mentioned the five countries above. He is visiting one country in East Africa: Uganda. The reason for the Uganda visit is that it is regarded by the administration as a success story, particularly in combatting AIDS. Kenya used to be considered the success story in East AFrica, but has recently lost some of its luster.
________________________________________________
Munich, Germany:
Deteriorating US-Kenya relations have come as a disappointment especially as Kenya is one of the few and genuine success stories out of Africa this year? What, in your opinion is the cause for this?
What is your prognosis for future US-Kenya relations?
Michael Dobbs: U.S.-Kenya relations have probably been getting better since the departure of Daniel Arap Moi. But the WH has only time to focus on one East African country at a time, and this time around it is Uganda.
________________________________________________
Washington, D.C.: Why is it that Nelson Mandella might want to avoid a meeting with Bush?
Michael Dobbs: Mandela was not very happy with the U.S. over Iraq, and felt that the U.S. should not have invaded Iraq without the endorsement of the United Nations. So that is the most likely explanation.
________________________________________________
Washjington, D.C.: Who is the leading candidate to replace the Liberian president?
Michael Dobbs: My colleague, Andy Mosher, who is an editor on the foreign desk and has been Africa for a lot longer than I have, says there is no leading candidate, although there are several possibilities. That is the big problem. Once you get rid of Taylor, then what?
________________________________________________
Massillon, Ohio: Don't you think it amazing that Taylor agreed to step down?
Do you think Mr. Bush had anything to do with that?
Michael Dobbs: Certainly U.s. pressure must have been a factor here. The White House is virtually insisting that Taylor leave as a precondition for the U.S. sending troops. However, over the last few weeks, Taylor has lost control of much of the country, and may be sensing thathis time is up.
________________________________________________
Nashville, Tenn.: What businesses are included in the "sizable lobbying group in the U.S. pushing the President to pay attention to Africa," as you mentioned in an earlier response?
Michael Dobbs: African oil is becoming increasingly important to the U.S. Soon, the U.S. willbe getting more than 20 per cent of its oil from Africa, more than from Kuwait.
________________________________________________
Canton, Ohio: Isn't it remarkable that so soon after President Bush told Taylor to get out, he appears to be headed for Nigeria. Well done, don't you think?
Michael Dobbs: Well he isn't gone yet. I think there is quite a bit of haggling still to come.
________________________________________________
Washington, D.C.: Is there a rationale for sending U.S. troops to Liberia that would not also apply to many other troubled places in Africa? Do we have security interests there that we do not have elsewhere in Africa?
Michael Dobbs: The rationale for sending troops to Liberia is mainly historic. However, it is interesting that the administration is talking increasingly about the dangers posed by "failed states". Nation-building is a taboo phrase around the White House, but what we are doing in Iraq and now Liberia comes very close to nation-building.
________________________________________________
Washington, D.C.: Regarding Liberia -- why now? The situation did not developed overnight. Charles Taylor has long had a reputation for illegal and horrific deeds for sometime now.
I'm curious to hear what you think the turning point for the Bush Administration was?
Michael Dobbs: Like many foreign policy crises, this one crept up on the Bush administration. Everything came to a head at the same time: rebels advancing on the capital, Monrovia; a ceasefire that had to be enforced by someone; and the President's trip to Africa which focussed everybody's attention on the U.S. role in the continent.
________________________________________________
Helena, Mont.: I usually think Bush's foreign policies are very wrongheaded, yet his willingness to engage in peacekeeping in Liberia seems to be right on. Who's responsible for this? It seems like something the State department can take credit for, instead of the usual Bush foreign policy drivers.
Michael Dobbs: A number of people have influenced the President here. Colin Powell, the first African-American secretary of state, has obviously been very important. In addition to his own interest in Africa, I think he recognizes the argument of European countries who say that they are taking the lead in places like Congo and Cote d'Ivoire, and therefore the U.S. should take the lead on Liberia. The Pentagon was not all that enthusiastic about sending still more troops on an overseas mission, but saluted smartly when they understood that Bush was inclined to do something.
________________________________________________
Charlottesville, Va.: Why would evangelical Christians have a particular interest in projecting American power into Africa? Is it just a part of the responsibility they feel to "preach the Gospel to all the world" or is there some other motive at play?
Michael Dobbs: The Evangelicals have focussed a lot of attention on one particular country, Sudan. Their main motivation is the persecution of the largely Christian South by the Moslem North, and moral outrage at the system of slavery that still exists in some parts of Sudan. They have lobbied hard on this issues. Tackling HIV-AIDs has also become a priority for some religous groups.
________________________________________________
Montgomery, Ala.: Realisticly, will Bush's plans reduce the AIDA epidemic in Africa? Why or why not?
Michael Dobbs: There is a lot of controversy on this point. Some of the AIDS lobby groups say that the amount of money earmarked by the Bush adminsitration for tackling AIDS remains a pittance, and the efforts are more symbolic than real. As a reporter based in Washington, I don't really feel qualified to adjudicate this debate: I would want to go to Africa, and see what is happening on the ground.
________________________________________________
Asheville, N.C.: Nelson Mandela's outspoken contempt for the Bush Administration's invasion of Iraq was blistering, at best. Given the high regard in which Mr. Mandela is held in the eyes of most African-Americans and political liberals, wouldn't a meeting with him do a considerable good to Bush's chances with black and somewhat liberal voters?
Michael Dobbs: I am sure that Bush would have loved to have met with Mandela if he could. It probably would have helped him with the constituencies you mentioned. The White House tried to arrange a meeting with Mandela but were told it was not possible.
________________________________________________
Fairfax, Va.: Please understand. When you speak of African Americans there are two cultures. One, American born/generations old citizens (those who did not come here of their own free will) and the other -- newly arrived, newly sworn in citizens who came on their own (not as slaves). Which culture you come from has a great deal to do with how you perceive George Bush and his motives in Africa.
Michael Dobbs: Good point. Are you suggesting that the newly-arrived citizens are more likely to have positive feelings toward Bush than the American-born citizens?
________________________________________________
Washington, D.C.: As a former health worker in Africa, I was excited to hear Bush commit significant funds to AIDS prevention and treatment in Africa. However, it has become clear that funds will not be granted for prevention programs that include any type of condom distribution or programs that encourage condom use. Is Pres. Bush's aversion to funding these programs related to his religeous views? Is it likely to be a topic of discussion during his visit?
Michael Dobbs: I think that some money has been allocated to prevention programs, but I may be wrong. Again, there is a lively debate about this.
________________________________________________
Pickens, S.C.: It seems as though nobody in the US media wishes to address the caveat of refusing aid to nations who do not sign an "Non-extradition to the International War Crimes Court". Undoubtably African Nations will have that stick attatched to the carrot of aid, too. Must we continue to rely on foreign news sources to get the scoop on such foreign policies?
Michael Dobbs: You are probably right. This is an issue we should examine more closely.
________________________________________________
Arlington, Va.: If the U.S. takes action in Liberia, does this set a precedent or an expectation that the U.S. will involve itself in other African conflicts?
Michael Dobbs: The White House is arguing that Liberia is a special case. However, the U.s. is already involved in other conflicts, e.g. Sudan, although it has not sent troops there.
________________________________________________
Washington, D.C.:
How much support will Bush expect from African American voters in exchange for his attention to issues that affect them, including attention to issues of interest to people in Africa? Obviously, African American leaders cannot permit his actions to go without a positive response, as to do so would reflect the type of rigid resistence to change that they've always fought against.
Michael Dobbs: This is more a question for the political reporters than for me. Some African American leaders do credit Bush for paying more attention to Africa. Others remain deeply skeptical about his motives, and say this visit is little more than a glorified photo op.
________________________________________________
Washington, D.C.: Isn't too much being made of the U.S.-Liberia connection? Only 5 percent of the population is related to the freed slaves. Our policy for the last several years was for others to supply the UN peacekeepers, while we signed the checks and provided some technical expertise. This should be continued.
Michael Dobbs: This was the line that Bush took in the presidential debates with Al Gore. But he has changed his mind on this question, and explicitly recognized what he calls the "unique history" connecting Liberia to the U.S.
________________________________________________
Frederick, Md.: As a former white Ugandan resident ('53-'75), the news of an American President coming to visit is pretty dramatic news! And I would say, very encouraging.
Will the president have time to go to number of locations, or will this be a very short visit? The more visible he is, the greater impression he will make.
Michael Dobbs: Bush is only staying one day in each country. That makes five days in all. A week is a long time in Presidential scheduling terms...
________________________________________________
Michael Dobbs: Thanks for all your questions, which have been interesting and stimulating. Look forward to talking to you again on line soon.
________________________________________________
Automatically Update Page
| Get New Responses | Submit Question
 |