The Weather Warriors
With Doug Hill
WJLA ABC7 Chief Meteorologist
Monday, Feb. 3, 2003; 3 p.m. ET

In the past year, the Washington, D.C. area has had dealt with drought and a "real winter" -- complete with regular snowfall -- for the first time in several seasons. No question, weather affects how we live, and when the weather snags traffic, confines Washingtonians to their homes or hits us by surprise, the first people to be blamed are the meteorologists -- who use a combination of art, science and common sense to make their best predictions for the day-to-day weather.

Washington's big four weather forecasters -- Doug Hill, Bob Ryan, Topper Shutt and Sue Palka -- are profiled in this Sunday's TV Week.

Doug Hill, chief meteorologist at Washington, D.C.'s WJLA ABC7, was online Thursday, Feb. 6 at 2 p.m. ET, to talk about high-wire craft of predicting the weather.

The transcript follows.

Editor's Note: Washingtonpost.com moderators retain editorial control over Live Online discussions and choose the most relevant questions for guests and hosts; guests and hosts can decline to answer questions.

Arlington, Va.: I guess this is an appropriate time for you to be here. The forecast keeps changing. First it was flurries, then maybe 1-3", now 4-6. What should we believe? I have plans this evening -- from about 8-11. Will I have to worry about people who don't know how to drive in the snow running into me?

Doug Hill: the truth of the matter is we should see between 2 and 8 inches..but if I used ar ange that wide on tv...I'd be back at the golden arches

Bowie, Md.: Doug,

For some reason, Bowie almost always gets bypassed by the heavier snows, either to the north or to the south. As a snow lover, this is extremely frustrating. My question is: How much snow do you expect in the Bowie area from the upcoming snow (if it really does finally snow)?

I hope this snow doesn't fizzle out like the last time we had a winter storm warning for 3-6" (about 3 weeks ago in mid-Jan.). We got less than an inch from that one because it moved faster than expected and dry air from the west messed it up. What's your take on tonight's potential storm?

Doug Hill: Hello Bowie...we all got fried on that last storm...it was moving way faster than expected. This one is a fast mover too, but jet stream energy should maximize the snow potential...I think 4 or 5 is a safe bet in Bowie

Alexandria, Va.: Why is it that the dates of the solstices and equinoxes are the "first day" of the seasons, rather than the midpoints? It seems counter-intuitive that, for example, the longest day of the year (summer solstice) isn't necessarily the hottest -- that most of the hottest days come later, rather than being more evenly distributed around the solstice date.

Doug Hill: It takes a long time for the ground to heat...all summer in fact and even longer for the bodies of water. So it makes sense to observe the first day of summer. As far as mid-points to observe events is not what the events are about. the summer solstice mean simply stated that the most direct rays of the sun are at the northern most latitude they will reach for the summer.

Baltimore, Md.: Do the computer models consider principles of chaos theory?

Doug Hill: They should...but how do you quantify chaos ?

Woodbridge, Va.: I have two questions. The first is why do all of the local weather people ignore areas to the south -- Prince William, Stafford, etc.? They only seem to care about inside the Beltway. The second question is the Farmer's Almanac is predicting a Blizzard for the D.C. area within the next couple of weeks. Do you put a lot of faith in the Farmer's Almanac?

Doug Hill: I only put faith in the Farmers Almanac's recipes and farm animals gestation tables....If you call for a february blizzrd...sooner or later you will be correct

Arlington, Va.: Here's what Topper Shutt wrote in a Live Online chat on Monday:

"I think we are close to acurrately predicting trends 2 to 3 weeks in advance. Will we be able to be more specific than that... maybe."

Then he wrote:

"First the good news: It looks cold enough to support snow the next 10 to 14 days. Now the bad news... a lot of moisture will be shunted to our south. We need the northern jet to retreat a little and the southern jet to become active and the dominant jet. I am discouraged but I am holding on to a little hope."

Two to three weeks? He couldn't see the snow coming three DAYS in advance!

And please, don't hide behind "Topper said that, not me." or "He did say the southern jet had to become active in order for us to get snow, and that's what did happen." That's like saying, "In order for us to get snow we'd need to see crystallized water particles fall from the sky."

THAT'S what you're supposed to predict.

We don't care that you can't predict the weather more than 24 hours in advance. We care that you consistently claim to be able to do so.

washingtonpost.com: Topper Shutt, (Live Online, Feb. 3)

Doug Hill: No need to reply....seems you have already decided what the answer is.

New York, N.Y.: What is the difference between Live Super Doppler 7 and the other D.C. station's Doppler radar?

Doug Hill: live Doppler radar is live doppler radar. The names of the systems...LSD 7 or Doppler 9000 are just names. FYI Channels 7 and 9 are the only stations in town to have live radar imagery.

Somewhere, USA: Does the jet stream push the high and low pressure systems around or do the systems determine the direction of the jet stream?

Doug Hill: The jet streams do the pushing, so to speak. jet Streams can often be located just north of strong high pressure systems and just south of deep atmospheric troughs of lower pressure

Germantown, Md.: Doug,

What happened to your morning weatherperson -- Alexandra Steele? One fine morning, she was gone.

Doug Hill: She left to pursue new challenges in broadcasting. Those were words in the voice-mail she left for me. I think she just nneded a change of scenery and a break for the Monday thru Friday thing....she will have no trouble finding another job.

Blizzard of '78: Today is the 25th anniversary of the Blizzard of '78, which pounded New England with snow and waves. Where were you at the time?

Doug Hill: I was the Public Information Officer in PG County Police Department back then.

Takoma Park, Md.: Hi Doug:
Big fan of yours and have been since the days of watching you joke around with Glenn Brenner and Gordon Peterson! I know everyone at Channel 7 is the consumate professional but it just doesn't seem as jovial as the days at Channel 9. Maybe it's the sign of the serious times we are in -- sigh. Do you ever keep in touch with Gordon and Topper? Thanks!

Doug Hill: Yeah...I think you are right. I spoke with Topper on the phone yesterday...Peterson and I chat on the phone now and then. I know he misses me terribly and no loner feels like a complete person without me around.

Alexandria, Va.: Why are you funnier on the radio than on TV? Are Moss and Day (WTOP) just easier to clown around with than Maureen is?

Doug Hill: Thank you, first. I don't think it about it much. But I guess radio is a much more personal medium. people ac cept off the wall and screwball comments on the radio more readily than on tv newscasts. I joke around with Mo B but not to the extent of Moss and day....they are kindred sick puppies.

Kingstowne, Va.: I find American measurements nonsensical. Is there any way that the "on-screen" writing in your forecasts (i.e., the numbers and such) could display temperatures in normal degrees as well as degrees F (e.g., 32F/0 C, the way way The Post's Web page does)? Obviously most of your viewers grew up with these numbers -- and I grew up in, and went to school in, Fairfax County, but in the late 1970s when we were taught real measurements (i.e. metric).

Doug Hill: Our webmaster just told me he will set that up on our website this afternoon. Space is the problem for TV..I think the screen is junked up with too many numbers as it is. The celsius/fahrenheit thing to me is like the boxers or briefs thing.

Centreville, Va.: Doug: Love watching you each day on Channel 7! When you give the average temps, how many years make up that average? Thanks!

Doug Hill: They are I believe 30 year averages.

Annapolis, Md.: Hi Doug,
We work in Annapolis but live in Baltimore. Which area should we expect more snow in tomorrow? All the conflicting forecasts have us lost and confused. Please help.

Doug Hill: Both towns shoud see 4 to 6 inches...but please rememeber that we forecast the snow to occur but estimate how much will fall. A subtle but important difference. Will you be angry if you get 3 or 7 inches instead?

Tysons Corner, Va.: Doug,

What's your reading on the rest of the winter -- cold and dry, snowy, warm? Do you think we'll get a blockbuster snowstorm anytime soon?

Doug Hill: I have said all season that I think we will have 1 big February snowstorm...hunch only. Nothing scientific.

Washington, D.C.: I've been curious about something for months. I often listen to you in the mornings on WTOP while driving to work. If WTOP is a CBS affiliate, why do they bring on a weatherman from ABC? Did you already have a deal before moving to WJLA? (Please don't take offense -- I'm not complaining about it or questioning it, I'm just curious.)

Doug Hill: No problem....we are both affiliates of different networks. It really isn't that unusual in the business. The WTOP job came after I started here at abc 7.

Vienna, Va.: You weather guys get no respect, if your right (in my estimation 90 percent of the time) no one cares, but if your wrong, look out. You guys perform a wonderful service, especially in severe weather situations. I think a lot of people owe their lives to the broadcast meteorologists and those at NWS. Thanks!

Doug Hill: Thank you Vienna....I only claim 83% accuracy...but you are right. People that REALLY understand what weather forecasting is all about are disappointed when a forecast fails...but they do not go into fits of anger. And beleive me....I have been dressed down by some of the angriest people on earth. I guess if I claimed to be 100% right 100% of the time..that anger might be a bit easier to understand.

Baltimore, Md.: Long time fan, first time poster. Why is it that storms that come from the south always seem to drop so much more snow on the area?

Doug Hill: Beacuse they often tap moisture from the Gulf of Mexico and the Atlantic Ocean...a connection missing from most stroms approaching from the west

Bethesda, Md.: I'm a scientist, so at parties people keep asking me what "probability of precipitation" means -- and I keep having to say that I'm not sure.

So, please tell me, does "80 percent probability of precipitation" mean it's raining 80 percent of the time or that there's an 80 percent probability that it's raining?

Doug Hill: To me 80% probabilty of rain means there is an 8 in 10 chance that it will rain somewhere in the area in wchich it was forecast.

Washington, D.C.: It's been YEARS since the old days when you were third-string to Gordon Barnes and Bill Kamal. Do you know where those gentlemen are today? Just curious whatever became of them.

Doug Hill: Barnes live outside Dallas and works at a flight school...Bill Kamal is Cheif Meteorologist at WSVN Tv, the Fox staion, in Miami

Olney, Md.: Hey Doug -- I think I recall reading somewhere that you are a fellow Baltimorean. What neighborhood? HS? Favorite thing about the city?

Doug Hill: I lived on Loch Raven Blvd....graduated from Parkville HS.We were 21204 for years than switched to 21234...but my birth certificate says Towson....so thats what I claim. I love everything about Baltimore but its the people and their attitude I like the most.

Sterling, Va.: Sometimes you make me laugh because at times you come across on both TV and radio as rather defensive for a weatherman. Are you frustrated at times by the grief from wrong forecasts that comes with the job?

Doug Hill: What do you mean by that...lol...I feign frustration sometimes and sometimes I really mean..I have always thought that if you smile enough you won't be able to tell if I am joking or not.....But the "grief" factor from viewers and listeners is just part of the job. You just have to deal with it. No one forced me to get into this business.

Gambrills, Md.: Two comments-

First of all, of all the newscasters, I think you are the most knowledgeable about Southern Maryland -- must be the local connection.

Second, although everyone is asking about snow, can you tell us anything about predictions and your experience with the La Plata tornado?

(Oh, and you're great during the Caps games).

Doug Hill: I think heaviest snow will be north of a Leonardtown/Prince frederick line....probably sleet mixed in south of there...But a good 5+ or so for Gambrills. I was out of town on April 28th

Annandale, Va.: Hi Doug:
What's the strangest weather phenomenom you've ever experienced? Were you struck by lightning once?

BTW, love when you do your Bal'imore accent!

Doug Hill: No, my house was struck by lightning. Don't cha know hon??? The strangest thing I experienced was during an ice storm in January 1999. After midnight, I looked out theback bedroom window and saw greenish flashes at places along the entire horizon...those power transforming blowing out....eerie sight !

Reston, Va.: Do you and your fellow weather people from other stations ever get together for beers after work and shoot the breeze (pun intended)?

Doug Hill: Not very often....could lead to fisticuffs...lol

Ashburn, Va.: Hey Doug,

Is this storm today/tonight coming up from the South or the West?

washingtonpost.com: And when will we see the first flakes?

Doug Hill: From the south with some upper support from a system from the west.

Alexandria, Va.: Did you really dress up as a nun for Halloween?

Doug Hill: A mother superior at that. My wife dressed as a nun as wellat the party we had at the house. I have a great pic of the nuns playing pool

Bethesda, Md.: Hi Doug! I have been watching you ever since you arrived at Channel 9 and followed you to Channel 7. I loved the weather team of Topper Shutt, Lexy Hickock and Steve Rudin. With all the weather openings at Channel 7, do you think you could ever be reunited with any of them?

Doug Hill: I doubt it...but in this busy anything can happen

Alexandria, Va.: What is the dew point and why should we care about it?

I think you're great!

Doug Hill: It is the temperature to which an airmass must be cooled be be saturated ..100% rh

Virginia: What was your biggest mistake?

Doug Hill: Trusting in one of my former bosses.

RE: Topper's comments: To the person who posted Topper's comments about predicting trends 2-3 weeks in advance. "Trends" does not mean a specific storm or exact temperature forecast. Trends means, "temperautres will be above average, about average, or below average", or "precipitation will be above average, below average, etc."

Doug Hill: Toppers right....spotting trends is sometimes easier than forecasting details over the next 48 hours. that's just the way it is. I din't create the atmosphere...just try to figure out what it's going to do.

Washington, D.C.: Doug,

I'm a big fan. Thanks for all that you do. I'm interested in exploring a career in meteorology. What kind of background does it take?

Doug Hill: science and math til you are blue in the face. If you survive...you'll be well suited for college level coursework. From what I hear from interns that work here, they say that calculus and physics are the roughest classes.

Logan Circle, Washington, D.C.: Hi Doug! No question, just thought you'd like to know that you're my favorite weather guy! Whenever my husband has the TV on another channel and the weather comes on, I say "Honey, this is NOT Doug Hill" and he changes it. I don't even care when you're wrong, I just like your personality so much better! Thanks! Keep up the great work!!

Doug Hill: Thank you on Logan Circle.....your loyalty will be rewarded one day.

Olney, Md.: Doug, what's the simple answer to why most storms give us more snow north and west of D.C. but some (especially lately) are more south and east?

Doug Hill: Duer to the exact track of the storm

Washington, D.C.: Ok, so you answered the mystery of the dew point, but what in the heck is the Wet Bulb Temperature?

Doug Hill: Wet bulb temperature is the lowest temperature to which an airmass can be cooled by evaporating water into it

   |      |