Election 2004: New Hampshire Primary
James W. Pindell
PoliticsNH.com Managing Editor and Political Reporter
Monday, December 08, 2003; 1:00 p.m ET
According to two polls from last week former Vermont governor Howard Dean has surged to a commanding lead in New Hampshire. Must the other candidates resign themselves to a race for second place? Why has the Kerry campaign floundered in a state that was once presumed to be a natural win for him? What can we expect from Tuesday's debate in Durham, N.H.?
PoliticsNH.com managing editor and political reporter James W. Pindell was online to discuss the buildup to the New Hampshire primary.
The transcript follows.
Editor's Note: washingtonpost.com moderators retain editorial control
over Live Online discussions and choose the most relevant questions for guests and hosts; guests and hosts can decline to answer questions.
James W. Pindell: Good afternoon everybody. It's great to take a break from digging out of this Nor'Easter winter storm to talk politics. Let's get started.
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Lyme, Ct.:
The New Hampshire Primary usually attracts several fringe candidates. How many candidates in total filed in the Republican and Democratic Primaries? Did anyone with any serious name recognition file against Bush? If so, is there any sign of any anti-Bush protest within the Republican primary? May voters vote in the primary of their choice, meaning Republicans or Independents could vote in the Democratic Primary? If so, wouldn't most voters then chose the Democratic Primary and, if so, which Democratic candidate appears to be attracting the support of Republican-leaning voters?
James W. Pindell: Good question. As you may know all it takes to get your name on the New Hampshire presidential primary ballot is filled out one-page form and $1,000. The three-week filing period ended Nov. 21. Thirty-seven people filed for president (25 Democrats and 12 Republicans.) You can see the full list here: http://www.nh.gov/sos/presprim%202004/list%20with%20photos.htm
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Detroit, Mich.:
The New Hampshire primary is always discussed in context of its influence and potential to predict who will be a party's presidential nominee. Is there any evidence that it might also give an indication of which party's final nominee might ultimately win the presidential election? (By looking at party turnout, number of qualified voters voting, etc.)
James W. Pindell: The truth is that Iowa and New Hampshire really do more to winnow down the field of candidates than they do in selecting presidents. Up until 1992, though, NH did have an unblemished record to picking the eventual party nominee. Obviously that year Bill Clinton came in second as the "comeback kid", and then in 2000 John McCain came in first in the primary, but did not win the nomination as we know. As far as being an ultimate bellweather for the general election look to NH to be a battleground. It has voted for the general election winner as far back as I can remember.
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Baltimore, Md.:
A New Hampshire presidential primary season without the late Hugh Gregg will be like Christmas without Santa Claus. Do you agree?
James W. Pindell: Hugh Gregg, the former NH governor and father to NH Senator Judd Gregg, died in September. He was probably the biggest advocate there ever was of the primary. His loss has already been felt.
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Cape Coral, Fla.:
Why is it that everyone is beating up on Howard Dean?
James W. Pindell: To quote Dean, yes, "has been picking a lot of buck out of my behind". The reason is that as the front-runner the other candidates feel they need to go after him if they have any shot at the nomination. And after three months of attacks he seems to be holding up rather well.
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Iowa City, Iowa:
Why is it that candidates have been spending more than twice as much money in Iowa as in New Hampshire this year?
James W. Pindell: As much as I hate to admit it, the reason is Iowa is where the action is at. Poll numbers suggest a dog-fight for first place there between Howard Dean and Dick Gephardt. Third and fourth place could be up for grabs. And Howard Dean is beatable in Iowa where he holds somewhere between a 25-30 lead in NH.
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Merrimack, N.H.:
With over 40,000 high-tech and manufacturing jobs, representing 6.7 percent, of the entire workforce in New Hampshire, permanently leaving the state, what have the candidates said about bringing outsourced jobs back to America?
James W. Pindell: You bring up what is no question a major issue this election year for New Hamsphire. Most, if not all, candidates have released plans to jumpstart the economy and bring jobs. No candidate, though, has owned this issue or has really has been able to differentiate their plans to voters (at least that is my read on it).
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London, U.K.:
Hi, do you think that Mr Dean being nominated as the Democrat candidate will cause problems for the Democrat Party if he is elected, as the party's 'moderate' support may be turned off by his left-wing public image?
James W. Pindell: This remains to be seen. But, if nominated, I would expect for Dean to play up the fact he has balanced budgets and supports states rights for gun control among other issues. Dean has maintained from the beginning that he is a moderate politician though his ability to bring same-sex marriages to his state and his opposition to the war have given him the support of progressives. One other thing I will note is that the general election is shaping up differently that past election cycles. Bill Clinton and even your Prime Minister Tony Blair found success in the moderate "third way" of politics by appealing to the center. The general election here appears to be shaping up to be all about the base of both parties. George Bush will enjoy a lot of support with his base and Dean or another Democrat will with theirs. I guess it is only inevitable we do that in these times of big questions and in a nation so polarized politically.
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Estell Manor, N.J.:
Even though Senator Kerry is now talking about finishing in the top two, is it probable that he is cratering and could finish third or even fourth? Does Representative Gephardt have any real presence in New Hampshire?
James W. Pindell: I will say it here: John Kerry could finish third in New Hampshire, but I see that has highly unlikely right now. The battle for third place in NH recently has been a contest between John Edwards and Wesley Clark. During this period there has been a lot of inside baseball fighting between the two, but now both Edwards and Clark are looking at Kerry sink and wonder if they can grab second. Look for some shot at Kerry in Tuesday night's debate from New Hampshire.
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Ashland, Ore.:
Please discuss the phenomenon of candidates trying to set the agenda for the national campaign in early states like Iowa and New Hampshire. Does this strategy work?
I'm particularly interested whether other organizations or special interest groups (eg NRA, Sierra Club etc) field campaigns for their causes in these early states as well for the same reason -- or whether it is just the candidates.
James W. Pindell: You are very perceptive. The growth of interest groups in early presidential primary states is a recent phenomenon driven by the correct assumption that they can help set the agenda for the race to come. Frankly I am seeing less interest groups here than in 2000, but a higher level of professionalization to the ones that are here. Actually the biggest players aren't the Sierra Club or NRA, but instead unions pushing for health care reform.
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Chicago, Ill.:
After the primary what will happen to your coverage of the presidential race? I assume candidate trips will be much less frequent.
James W. Pindell: Yes on Jan. 28, the day after the primary, I am afraid I will go back to unknown status and most likely won't be asked to join you in forums such as this. PoliticsNH.com will continue to be committed to politics of the state. Thus, we will again look to the statehouse races, a gubernatorial race, a U.S. Senate race, and two congressional races. That said, a Bush senior strategist told me that NH one of the top seven targeted states for the general election. NH should expect to see the president and the Democratic nominee a few times after the primary. http://www.politicsnh.com/archives/pindell/2003/November/11_10dowd.shtml
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Mt. Lebanon, Pa.:
Sometimes I miss these Dem debates because they're scheduled at filarky times on hard-to-find TV channels. So:
1. When is it this time, who's sponsoring it, and what media conglomerate is producing it -what cable channel is it on]?
2. Does anyone ever think to "simulcast" thse events on the Internet for those of us with broadband capabilities?
3. Does the debate format ever change or is it going to be the same old "tell us everything you know in 2 minutes" approach?
4. How does the NH primary thing work? I forget. Who counts the votes -i.e., the State, the parties, ??] and when/how are they "officially" recorded?
5. Finally, does anyone really care how Dixville Notch votes? In fact, isn't it high time all those old duffers up there get their hot cocoa, put their teeth in the glass, go to bed early, and spare us the late-night homespun TV-op?
Thanks much.
James W. Pindell: 1. The next debate is tommorrow (12/9) at 7pm broadcast in NH on ABC affiliate WMUR and nationally on C-SPAN. It will be a 90-minute debate. It is also the last debate until Jan.
2. Some of these debates have been simulcasted and I am sure that C-SPAN will do it tommorrow since they do with most of their cable coverage anyway.
3. I have had an informal advisory role in tommorrow's debate so I want to watch what I say, but tommorrow's debate should be quite lively toward the end when the round-robin questions end.
4. The NH primary is like your elections in Pa. I will go to my local voting place, an elementary school in my case, and if I am a Democrat or independent I can pick up the Democratic primary ballot, enter a booth and vote.
5. You mention Dixville Notch, a small resort community in probably the furthest North spot you can get in NH. For the past several cycles they have brought attention to themselves by holding the first primary vote exactly at midnight. No one really holds a lot of stock in the vote other than the fact it is a fun media event. There are onyl 27 voters at my last count. 21 of them are Republicans I think.
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Equality, Ill.:
We hear so much about "retail politics" in New Hampshire, and see the candidates at all sorts of fairs and picnics. I wonder if candidates ever go knocking on doors the way city council candidates do, or does their big media entourage make that impossible?
Also, what are some of the more interesting or unorthodox campaign gimmicks that you have seen in New Hampshire over the years? I remember Estes Kefauver in his Davy Crockett hat back in 1956. What else is there?
James W. Pindell: Candidates do go door-knocking in New Hampshire, as expected in this state. Following them are large door to door operations of volunteers and staff.
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New York, N.Y.:
Heard you got that guy Kucinich a date. Who won the contest, and where did they go out in New Hampshire? How will that affect his chances?
James W. Pindell: You are right that my website PoliticsNH.com did sponsor a contest to find Democratic presidential candidate Dennis Kucinich a date a day after he mentioned at a forum in Manchester that "as a bachelor" he "could only fantasize about his first lady." Gina Marie Santore, of New Jersey, was selected by our readers as the winner. She has been interviewed several times on MSNBC and even CNN's Inside Politics. We are working with Kucinich's campaign to set up a date right now. How will it affect his chances of winning? I dunno, but it is certainly drawing attention to him and it shows he is a good sport. I did notice that during Saturday's Florida Democratic Party convention a woman was overtly trying to pick him up and got a kiss out of it.
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Pacific Grove, Calif.:
What is new and different, if anything, about the upcoming New Hampshire primary versus 4 years ago?
I'd like you to zero in on any innovative tactics and strategies. For instance, who is using the Internet effectively -- and what are they doing? What are you seeing campaigns do this time around that they have not done previously?
Thank you.
James W. Pindell: Tatically not a lot has changed in how campaigns run their field organizations in New Hampshire compared to four years ago. For all the talk about the use of the Internet this campaign, there is very little evidence of it's effectiveness in New Hampshire, and I suspect in Iowa. Voters were get the chance to interact with candidates and campaigns any time they want in person. What the internet has really done is open up this process to the rest of the nation and giving supporters in Texas and elsewehere the chance to participate this early by giving money and organizing. But in NH, it's still about going door-to-door, attending house parties, visiting diners, and holding town hall meetings.
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South Orange, N.J.:
With the latest polls showing Dean with 40-45 percent, and according to NPR this morning, most of these are strong supporters, is it over for the other candidates? Can Kerry pull off an upset through the efforts of Jeanne Shaheen and the other NH Democrats supporting him? Is a strong showing in Iowa necessary for Kerry to do that?
James W. Pindell: The premise of your question is spot on. Dean's lead is growing and polls like one out today by Franklin Pierce College http://www.fpc.edu/pages/institutes/poll/poll_03_1208.pdf
show those supporting Dean aren't wishy-washy about it and possibily voting for someone else. So will John Kerry pull off this amazing come back? Everyone I talk to that knows Kerry says he preforms best when his back is against the wall. Well his back is clearly against the wall now and I am not going to rule anything out, especially in this state which as a tradition of turning on a front runner. But as Jeanne Shaheen, the former NH governor running his national campaign, knows more than anyone else she has to stop Kerry from making grand speeches at the Council of Foreign Relations last week and at Stanford today and instead in Iowa and New Hampshire if he plans to have any hopes of a comeback. And for Kerry it is all about Iowa.
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Montreal, Canada:
Will Senator Kerry withdraw from the race after he loses, the N.H. primary?
James W. Pindell: I don't know if Kerry will drop out. Maybe he pulls off a fighting comeback and this question is unncessary. Perhaps you saw his advisors are trying to lower the expections bar in Pat Healy's Boston Globe story today: tp://www.boston.com/news/nation/articles/2003/12/08/kerry_camp_lowers_nh_expectations/
As far as I know he is the only candidate not winning a single state in polls. So a loss would NH really hurt since he may not get momentum anywhere else.
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James W. Pindell: That is going to have to be the last question. You asked some great questions and I hope I was able to answer them. I hope we can do it again soon.
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