James W. Pindell PoliticsNH.com Managing Editor and Political Reporter Thursday, July 17, 2003; 11:00 a.m. ET
Who will win the New Hampshire primary in January? What campaigning have the Democratic candidates done so far? How important is a solid primary showing in the "Live Free or Die" state? PoliticsNH.com managing editor and political reporter James W. Pindell was online to discuss the buildup to the New Hampshire primary. The transcript follows. Editor's Note: Washingtonpost.com moderators retain editorial control over Live Online discussions and choose the most relevant questions for guests and hosts; guests and hosts can decline to answer questions.
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James W. Pindell: Hello. This is James Pindell at PoliticsNH.com. Thanks for joining me today. It looks like we already have several good questions. I hope you will keep these questions coming. I am looking forward to a stimulating conversation.
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Boston, Mass.: Mr. Pindell
It appears that the New Hampshire primary will come down to Kerry vs. Dean. What are the repercussions for the loser of that battle?
James W. Pindell: Deadly. As one New Hampshire Democratic strategist put it lately, the New Hampshire Primary will be a lot like reality television. One will surely get kicked off the island and it seems, at least, the loser between Kerry and Dean will be at least one booted off the island.
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New York, N.Y.: Do any of these candidates have a chance at winning New Hampshire in the general election?
James W. Pindell: It's too early to tell. It appears that President Bush will have a significant fund-raising advantage over his Democratic opponent. Last quarter alone he raised more money in basically two weeks that all nine Democratic candidates raised combined in three months. But in such a high-profile race, with plenty of media coverage, the general election historically is more more about message than money.
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Manchester, N.H.:
Given all of the democratic attacks on President Bush in New Hampshire, how does he seem to be faring in the state? Are the attacks working.
James W. Pindell: Good question. Two recent polls in New Hampshire (by the University of New Hampshire and the Manchester-based American Research Group, have suggested that President Bush approval numbers have dropped here, but this appears consistent with what is going on in other states where the candidates aren't on the local news attacking the president. The fact is, New Hampshire is the only New England state to vote for Bush in 2000, both senators are Republicans, both U.S. House members are Republicans, the Governor is a Republican, and both state house chambers are dominated by Republicans. Bush will enjoy a lot of institutional advantages if he needs it.
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Lyme, Conn.: Would you please inform us about the democgraphics of who votes in the New Hampshire Primary and how that compares to the national averages? What type of politicians appeal to voters in New Hampshire?
James W. Pindell: This is an extremely important question. On the demographic side we know this: About of the state is white. It ranks sixth in per capita income. It has the lowest poverty rate. And, not surprisingly, the unemployment rates are lower here than they are in other states.
But New Hampshire is a state of dramatic changes and a different voting population than voted in the 1972, 1992 and even the 2000 New Hampshire primaries.
The population increased about 12 percent in the last decade. Many of these people located in what is referred to as the state's Southern Tier along the border with Mass. These people tend to register as independents, work in Boston, and watch Boston television. Here Kerry has an advantage.
As voter registration goes, independents out number any voting class and they are the big X factor. Independents, or technically undeclareds, make up 37 percent of registered voters, Republicans 36 percent, and Democrats 26 percent.
As you can tell the candidate that appeals most to the independents is helped. Just has John McCain who soundly beat Bush here in the 2000 New Hampshire Republican Primary with the help of independents.
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Laurel, Md.: Among those who've won or almost won while doing better than expected in recent New Hampshire primaries:
John McCain
Lamar Alexander
Pat Buchanan
Paul Tsongas
Doesn't New Hampshire actually have a penchant for voting for "niche" candidates or local politicians from Massachusetts that won't be competitive on Super Tuesday?
James W. Pindell: That's a fair point. But keep in mind that New Hampshire and Iowa don't elect presidents, as many believe, they really winnow down the field.
But also keep in mind that many who did do better than expect (Jimmy Carter, Bill Clinton, Gore in the last few weeks) weren't niche candidates.
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New York, N.Y.: How long will it take before the field gets smaller? Will Joe Lieberman be the first to drop out?
James W. Pindell: I don't know when the field will get smaller. Last weekend Carol Moseley Braun suggested to the Chicago Tribune she may be out in September. Following the second quarter fund-raising reports the Washington Post deftly covered some staff shake-ups in the Lieberman campaign.
I don't know who will be out first, but I would suggest watching the money game for clues. These candidates rarely drop out because they want to, it's more like they drop out because they can't afford to stay in.
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Adams Morgan, Washington, D.C.: Native Granite Stater here. Enjoy your Web site a great deal. What I want to know: I imagine Judd Gregg expects a pretty routine reelection, but any chance there could be an interesting opponent or other bumps in the road? Seemed he was being groomed for a higher national profile a few years back; has his window closed? And who is likely to oppose Gov. Humvee?
And what do you see in Jeanne Shaheen's political future? Will she be a 2004 candidate, or be content to run the Dem's New Hampshire operation and hold out for an ambassadorship in a Democratic administration? I know it might seem like a step down, but don't you think she'd beat Jeb Bradley for the District 1 House seat?
James W. Pindell: Thanks for reading the website. I hear from many NH natives that check in with PoliticsNH.com for their daily political briefing. You have several good questions about who the Democrats might run in several high-profile races.
You mentioned U.S. Sen. Judd Gregg, the Senate Education Committee Chairman up for re-election in 2004. In many ways Gregg has been the most successful politician period in several decades here and will be hard to knock off. You probably know that state Sen. Burt Cohen (D-New Castle) announced last winter he will challenge Gregg and they have, to their credit, started very early raising money and building a campaign.
As to who will challenge Gov. Craig Benson, who does drive a stylish H2 Hummer, Democrats haven't found their candidate yet. It is the highest priority for state Democrats right now. One name surfaced, John Lynch, a successful businessman from Hopkinton and chair of the state's university system, but he said recently he wasn't interested, but he also wasn't saying no.
I am not sure what fmr. Gov. Jeanne Shaheen will do. Her loss to John Sununu for the U.S. Senate last fall deflated many Democrats because she was the continued great hope for the party. She taught at Harvard last spring and will teach at Tufts in the fall.
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Raleigh, N.C.: When the media talks about leading Democrats they often include Dean, Kerry, Gephardt. However, GOP-leaning groups have already put out ads attacking John Edwards in North Carolina, New Hampshire, and Iowa and when he visits the state a GOP spokesperson is always ready to give a sound-bite against him (don't forget Governor Benson). I know that Kerry and Dean are the favorites, but will New Hampshire voters soon realize that the White House doesn't want to run against John Edwards? Or better, do they care since Kerry/Dean have the obvious advantages there?
James W. Pindell: Well Edwards is certainly making the argument, as all candidates are, that he is the best positioned to beat President Bush. You are also right that Republicans do take a lot of opporotunity to paint Edwards as a greedy ambitious trial lawyer. And Republican Gov. Benson did attack Edwards a few months back. I am not sure how it will play out. Tell Ms. Palmieri I said hello.
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Little Rock, Ark.: You've worked in both Iowa and New Hampshire during the primary. Which do you like better? What is unique to each state?
James W. Pindell: I figured I would be asked this question. Making me pick between Iowa and New Hampshire is like asking a mother to pick a favorite child. Honestly, they are more similiar than they are differnet. The voters and activists are much more intensive and demanding of candidates than, let's say more kind Midwestern version.
On the strategy/field game level, I find Iowa more intellectually exciting because interest groups and core constituency groups of each party are such factors and the state is so big.
On message stuff the action is in New Hampshire because of the nature of the beast that more than just the party faithful vote here.
As a journalist I like the fact that New Hampshire is smaller and has quicker drive times between events and that it has beautiful mountains, and the ocean. That said, Iowa does have the world's largest truck stop and my college alma mater.
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Bowie, Md.: It has been suggested by knowledgeable political analysts that price supports for ethanol (derived from corn) and high-fructose corn syrup are a direct result of the prominent placement of the Iowa caucus.
Is there a similar 'New Hampshire issue' that the state just loves and derives disproportionate political benefit from because of the placement of its primary?
James W. Pindell: What a great question. There really isn't that one issue like ethanol here that a politician must pander too. But voters here, compared to other states, particularly want to hear about your plans for the environment, particularly when it comes to air pollution from the Midwest. (Republican members of Congress from here are generally considered green.) They also really care about federal funding of special education more than other places. I am probably forgetting a few other issues, but nothing like ethanol.
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Louisville, K.Y.: Do you think New Hampshire voters take their prominence in this process for granted? As you know, our primary is in late May, so our votes for our party's nominee don't mean that much.
James W. Pindell: New Hampshire voters take their primary very seriously, more than I thought before I came here a year ago. And they don't take it for granted at all. Many Democrats fear that this maybe the last New Hampshire Primary.
As you may know New Hampshire has been first since 1916. The last few cycles have brought some credible challenges to the primary (Delaware in 2000, Michigan this time) and people here are always on their toes. Nothing is more bi-partisan here than the idea of keeping New Hampshire the first primary.
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Harrisburg, Pa.: My recollection is there were a lot of fringe candidates running in past New Hampshire Presidential and Vice Presidential primaries. What are the requirements to get on the ballot? Do you still have a Vice Presidential primary?
James W. Pindell: Many lesser known candidates do officially file to run in the New Hampshire Primary. All you need is a pen, a ride to the state house in Concord, and $1,000. More info is here: http://www.state.nh.us/sos/presprim%202004/Declaration%20Filing.htm
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Zurich, Switzerland: Thanks for this wonderful opportunity and for all of your insight. I was wondering if you think foreign policy issues are going to make a difference in the campaigning and elections in New Hampshire, and if so, what divisions you see among the candidates. Is it really going to be a major issue in the next few months, or do you think it is still too taboo to have meaningful debate on the future of American foreign policy (aside from its usual back-seat role in elections)?
James W. Pindell: At New Hampshire campaign stops candidates are always asked about foreign policy. For example, at a stop yesterday at a Milford factory, workers there asked John Edwards about North Korea and America's image around the world. I wouldn't be shocked to see this questions continue.
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Washington, D.C.: James,
I'm told that the "regional" analysis that's been out in the press -- Dean strong near Vermont, Kerry strong near Massachusetts -- is way too simplistic. I hear it's more indicative to measure strength in a region by the lawmakers supporting candidates. Is that a good call? Can New Hampshire legislators drum up the votes?
--D.C. poli junkie
James W. Pindell: It depends on the legislators. Since December we have kept a running tally of who the 105 most important Democrats in the state support. You can see it here: http://www.politicsnh.com/pres04/tallyboard.htm
Many on that list are huge endorsements for a candidates to have and these people play an important role in the process. But having a person endorse a candidate and having a person endorsing a candidate and working hard for that candidate are two different things.
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James W. Pindell: I am sorry but that is going to have to be my last question. I really enjoyed your questions and I hope we can do it again sometime soon.
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