Broder on Politics: California Recall
David S. Broder
Washington Post Columnist/Reporter
Tuesday, September 30, 2003; 11:00 a.m. ET
Can California Gov. Gray Davis survive the Oct. 7 recall election? Should Arnold Schwarzenegger or Republican state Sen. Tom McClintock step aside in an attempt to unify Republican voters? Is the "No on Recall -- Yes on Bustamante" a good strategy for the Democrats?
Pulitzer Prize-winning reporter and columnist David S. Broder discussed the California recall.
Broder has written extensively about primaries, elections, special interests and the business of politics. His books include "Democracy Derailed: The Initiative Movement & the Power of Money," "Behind the Front Page: A Candid Look at How the News Is Made" and "The System: The American Way of Politics at the Breaking Point."
A transcript follows.
Editor's Note: washingtonpost.com moderators retain editorial control
over Live Online discussions and choose the most relevant questions for guests and hosts; guests and hosts can decline to answer questions.
Burke, Va.:
Mr. Broder -- First, I'd like to belatedly thank you for taking time from your busy day 28 years ago to be interviewed by a college student for a paper on the media's coverage of Eugene McCarthy's independent presidential campaign. Everyone who has heard about your generosity is very impressed. [I aced the paper and the course.]
I have a question and a comment. There is often a disconnect between insiders and the general public as to when an election campaign is over. Often, we will tune in to watch election night coverage and the commentators will go through the motions of suspensefully waiting for the returns when they fully know through polling data who has won. We, the public, are reduced to waiting for indirect hints that the outcome is known. That said, the Post's coverage of the California campaign yesterday indicates that polling trends are moving strongly in favor of recall and towards electing Schwarzenegger. Is it over?
David S. Broder: Thanks for your comment. No, I don't think you can say California's recall is over. When I was there last week, I was cautioned by many operatives that polling on five names is not necessarily an accurate guide to how voters will deal with a ballot that has two parts--yes or no on recall and 135 names. That said, the public poll in USA Today is compatible with private polling I was shown during the weekend, and it certainly appears that Gov. Davis has a way to go to defeat the recall and that Schwartzenegger is well ahead of Bustamante as a replacement candidate.
_______________________
Belmont, Calif.:
Why is Sen. Tom McClintock not electable in California? He certainly is the only one who has a total plan and knows the game rules?
David S. Broder: I agree that Senator McClintock comes across as a serious, well-informed candidate. But it has been a long time since California voters chose someone with his positions on abortion and other social issues.
_______________________
Los Angeles, Calif.:
I questioned the validity of the last Gallup poll this week. Several of my friends and co-workers, from all political sides, didn't think that Schwarzenegger's performance warranted such a huge swing in voter preference toward him. It does not make sense. Did we miss something? We have a feeling that other polls will come out showing the race a lot tighter. Was the Gallup poll using the same criteria as the others?
Also, I think I can safely say that the majority of Californian's are embarrassed by this whole fiasco. We never thought we would could surpass Florida as the national joke.
David S. Broder: As U saud a ninebt agim the Gallup Poll was compatible with private polling I was shown over the weekend. But this is a difficult race to poll and all such surveys should be taken with a grain of salt.
_______________________
Venice, Calif.
With some 90 percent of the California budget spoken for through ballot initiatives and an inexperienced legislature due to term limits, why is no one in California considering or discussing the idea of a constitutional convention to rewrite the California state constitution?
David S. Broder: Yours is the first proposal I have heard for a constitutional convention. But I did pick up serious talk out there about specific structural reforms, including proposals that would ease the majority requirement for passing a budget and proposals that would change California to an open primary system, somewhat similar to Louisiana's. These are things that the proponents argue would help break the gridlock in Sacramento, but they are controversial in themselves.
_______________________
Former Californian:
David: The Schwarzenegger fans say he has actually put out more detail on his policy positions than most, if not all, the other candidates but doesn't get much credit for that. The common complaint about Schwarzenegger is that there's not much there there (as Gertrude Stein said about Oakland, I think). Which comes closer to the truth, in your view?
David S. Broder: I am not an authority on Mr. Schwarzenegger. When I interviewed him a year ago on his after-school initiative, he was certainly well-informed on that subject and not reliant on staff to answer questions. When I saw him in Sacramento a couple weeks ago, he presented his 4-point political reform plan clearly and answered press conference questions for 25 minutes with no apparent strain. Business people such as Warren Buffet say he is smart and economically astute. He clearly has had limited experience with the range of issues he would face as governor and voters know little about his specific plans to deal with the budgetary crisis, nor much about the people he would choose to staff his administration. But I find no reason to think him incompetent.
_______________________
Washington, D.C.:
It seems California's budget and budget process is too constrained by voter initiatives that have been enacted over the years. What would it take (beyond just political courage) to overturn, say, Proposition 13? A revote of the public? Assembly supermajority?
David S. Broder: Every poll I have seen shows strong majority support in California for keeping Prop. 13. That makes it very unlikely it will be overturned--either by the politicians or by the people themselves.
_______________________
Pittsford, N.Y.:
Please tell us a little more about the support for
Lt. Gov. Bustamante. I thought he would get
almost all of the people who plan to vote no on
the recall plus some yes voters who prefer him
to Gov. Davis. Yet his percentage seems to be less than
that of the "no on recall" voters. Why is this?
What group or groups of voters is he losing
right now, and where are they going?
Thanks!
David S. Broder: The lieutenant governor has had a tough campaign. His decision to accept large sums from Indian gambling interests, exploiting a loophole in the campaign finance law, was rejected by regulatory bodies and caused a public backlash. He has not fared particularly well in the televised debates. But the more basic problem stems from his rocky relationship with Gov. Davis. They fell out early in their first terms in office and have not repaired the relationship. He may not be principally at fault in that, but he is suffering the consequences. I was struck by the lack of coordination or even cooperation between Davis's campaign to defeat the recall and Bustamante's campaign to win Part 2. The Democrats, in short, appear to be in disarray.
_______________________
Northfield, Minn.:
Is there no penalty to be paid for not answering substantive questions in interviews and press conferences, and for ducking a debate with your principal rival? I would think Schwarzenegger's apparent success with this strategy must be pretty disheartening to someone in your line of work, regardless of what you think of him personally or his party. I'd say it's disheartening to anyone who cares about accountability of candidates. Even Ventura here answered legitimate questions. What do you make of this?
David S. Broder: I think it is one more example of the campaign managers outwitting and out-brazening the press. It is not unique. Neither George Bush nor Al Gore held a full-scale news conference between the nominating conventions and Election Day in 2000--and got away with it. I have written in the past that news organizations should threaten to boycott campaigns where the candidates make themselves completely inaccessible. But I should note that I saw both Davis and Schwarzenegger answering press conference questions in California, so they may be less guilty than others.
_______________________
Gambrills, Md.:
A month or so ago, Gray Davis was arguing that the recall was the latest attempt by Republicans to take control by means other than the ballot box. Some examples were the impeachment of President Clinton, the 2000 recount disaster, the re-redistricting in Texas and Colorado, and, of course, the California recall.
I'm guessing this argument was dropped when Bustamante entered the race.
However, I know a lot of Democrats who believe this has become, I don't know if "strategy" is the right word, but, at least, a recurring theme from the G.O.P. In fact, this concern is being used by the D.N.C. in grassroots fundraising.
Obviously, as a Democrat, I tend to believe something is going on and that the Republicans are using whatever means they can to obtain power. I'm just posting this comment in hopes that you may offer further analysis.
David S. Broder: Clearly, Republicans and Democrats both seize opportunities to advance their political agendas. The circumstances of the four cases you cite differ. The impeachment effort was led by el;ected Republican politicians, using an opening President Clinton had created. The 2000 election recount was occasioned by an unplanned virtual tie in Florida, marred by voting systems mainly designed by Democrats, and fought out by lawyers and courts on both sides. The Texas and Colorado redistrictings were purely Republican operations. The California recall was started by populist groups, not controlled by Republicans, and was financed by one Republican (Nr. Issa) and only belatedly embraced by the party leadership and key elected officials in the state. You have to decide if that makes a pattern.
_______________________
Denver, Colo.:
We have, in effect, two Republican candidates and one Democratic candidate. Everything I've read indicates that no-one is going to withdraw prior to October 6, and yet a Republican is well ahead in the polling.
Is there any indication, not yet revealed by anything I've read, that McClintock will withdraw?
Is the strong performance by Republican candidates an indication of an anti-Democrat, as opposed to merely an anti-incumbent/anti-Davis, vote?
David S. Broder: There is no indication Senator McClintock will withdraw, and everyone I talked to who knows him said it would be contrary to his character and reputation for him to pull out. Clearly the operative force in the recall is public dislike of Gov. Davis. I don't think that translates automatically into a reversal of the state's recent preference for Democratic candidates. But recapturing the governorship would give Republicans a base from which to begin a badly needed effort at restoring their credibility in California.
_______________________
New York, N.Y.:
There has been some reporting in the Washington Post about the Latino vote and support for Cruz Bustamante.
In light of the news coverage of college participation in MeCHA, drivers licenses for migrant workers and Indian gaming contributions -- do you have an opinion on how these issues have been used by Arnold Schwarzenegger's campaign to quell Bustamante's appeal? Also, do you think these issues have had any effect on Latino and minority voters?
David S. Broder: I have not done enough voter interviewing myself in California to be able to judge the impact of these issues in the Latino community, but Rene Sanchez has a very good report on this subject in today's Post. My impression is that Schwarzenegger has used the driver's license issue to turn other voters away from Davis--and has had some success with it.
_______________________
Bloomington, Ind.:
What are the implications for the Bush adminisration if the recall succeeds?
David S. Broder: The White House will welcome it, but can claim no credit for it, if it succeeds. Republicans in California, including some close to Schwarzenegger, complained to me that the White House scoops up lots of campaign cash in California, but does little to help rebuild the Republican Party there. As you know, Schwarzenegger has a personal relationship with the first President Bush, so I would expect him to cooperate politically with the current president.
_______________________
Mexico City, Mexico:
Mr. Broder, do you think that the so called Latino vote could make a difference in a close election?
David S. Broder: Yes, it certainly could, and that is why both sides are paying close attention to it. The details are in Rene Sanchzez's story in today's Post.
_______________________
Mexico City, Mexico:
Mr. Broder, do you think that the so called Latino vote could make a difference in a close election?
David S. Broder: Yes, it certainly could, and that is why both sides are paying close attention to it. The details are in Rene Sanchzez's story in today's Post.
_______________________
Washington, D.C.:
So what are the competing plans to save California?
It's my understanding that the state's $39 billion fiscal crisis is so large that it rivals that of Argentina, which regularly defaults on international debt payments and has experienced more than a 67 percent devaluation of its currency in recent years.
David S. Broder: The current estimates of the budget gap for next year are in the range of $8 billion, but many of the devices used to get through the current year are one-time gimmicks. So the governor, whoever it is, will have a tough challenge. Neither Davis nor Schwarzenegger has been very specific in spelling out plans for the budget. Bustamante, McClintock and Camejo have said more, but probably won't be in a position to implement their plans.
_______________________
Washington, D.C.:
So what are the competing plans to save California?
It's my understanding that the state's $39 billion fiscal crisis is so large that it rivals that of Argentina, which regularly defaults on international debt payments and has experienced more than a 67 percent devaluation of its currency in recent years.
David S. Broder: The current estimates of the budget gap for next year are in the range of $8 billion, but many of the devices used to get through the current year are one-time gimmicks. So the governor, whoever it is, will have a tough challenge. Neither Davis nor Schwarzenegger has been very specific in spelling out plans for the budget. Bustamante, McClintock and Camejo have said more, but probably won't be in a position to implement their plans.
_______________________
Washington, D.C.:
So what are the competing plans to save California?
It's my understanding that the state's $39 billion fiscal crisis is so large that it rivals that of Argentina, which regularly defaults on international debt payments and has experienced more than a 67 percent devaluation of its currency in recent years.
David S. Broder: The current estimates of the budget gap for next year are in the range of $8 billion, but many of the devices used to get through the current year are one-time gimmicks. So the governor, whoever it is, will have a tough challenge. Neither Davis nor Schwarzenegger has been very specific in spelling out plans for the budget. Bustamante, McClintock and Camejo have said more, but probably won't be in a position to implement their plans.
_______________________
Madrid, Spain:
Assuming a Republican, that is to say Arnold, is the next governor of California, and of course depending on his success or lack thereof over the coming year, what impact will this recall have on next years presidential election and/or Bush´s campaign?
David S. Broder: I think the dynamic in the presidential campaign will be very different from that of the recall, and I doubt that the outcome next Tuesday will tell us much about California's position in the 04 presidential race.
_______________________
Washington, D.C.:
How will reports that Arianna Huffington is dropping out affect the race, if at all? Could that give Arnold the edge he needs, even if McClintock doesn't drop out?
David S. Broder: Her vote is probably not large enough to affect anything but an extremely close election.
_______________________
Fairfax City, Va.:
What did you think of Arianna's performance in the debate? It certainly seems her negative attacks on Schwarzenegger have backfired. If she pulls out, does she endorse Camejo?
David S. Broder: I do not know what she will do about an endorsement if she withdraws from the race. It appeared to me that she was trying in the debate to make it a two-person contest between herself and Schwarzenegger. The moderator let her succeed more than he should have, but it does not seem to have damaged Schwarzenegger.
I am afraid this has to be my last answer today. Thank all of you who participated.
_______________________
washingtonpost.com:
Today's Big Nate
_______________________
Automatically Update Page
Get New Responses
Submit Question
| 
