Terry Neal washingtonpost.com Chief Political Correspondent Thursday, August 14, 2003; 1:00 p.m ET
How does California Lt. Gov. Bustamante's candidacy shake up Davis' recall strategy? Is Dean, as Lieberman and other candidates have alleged, too liberal to be elected? Can any of the democratic candidates compete with Bush's fundraising prowess? washingtonpost.com Chief Political Correspondent Terry Neal took his Talking Points column live to discuss the latest political news. The transcript follows. Editor's Note: washingtonpost.com moderators retain editorial control over Live Online discussions and choose the most relevant questions for guests and hosts; guests and hosts can decline to answer questions.
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Terry Neal: Hello everyone. Glad to be back with you. So with no delay, let the games begin!
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Portland, Ore.: Schwarzeneger is pro-choice, pro-gay rights, and spending on schools and children is one of his signature issues. In reality isn't he the most popular Democrat on the ballot?
If he wins, I predict hard line Republicans in the state legislature will try to ignore him and do as they please as expect him to rubber stamp it. But "Ahnold" will go directly to the public to make his case (with a man named Buffet in his hip pocket). It could be damaging. And he's right -- he can't be bought. I hope he wins, I think he will expose the political games in Calif. and the gamers who play at the people's expense.
washingtonpost.com: Schwarzenegger Is No One-Dimensional Character (Aug. 13)
Terry Neal: Whew. You packed a lot of stuff in there. Let's deal with the most pressing issue, here. Is Ahnold a Dem in disguise? I say no. While he certainly has some liberal positions, he is pretty conservative I believe on issues such as taxes and immigration. Much has been written about his support for Proposition 187. And although some GOP activist types in California have denied he played a major role in the 1994 campaign, I still have my questions. Speaking of questions: One of the reasons there is so much confusion about where he stands is because Schwarzenegger is not answering them. His advisers say they are working on policy papers now. But he also needs to do some interviews and press conferences.
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Ashland, Mo.: To what extent do you think those who are interested in politics, including reporters, are out of touch with people who can vote? For example, there are numerous stories about the "issues" and a candidate's stand on "the issues" Is there any empirical data that supports the theory that issues matter? It seems that people didn't agree with President Reagan on the issues, but he won reelection in a landslide.
Terry Neal: This is a good question. First of all, reporters are always accused of being out of touch about one thing or another. That accusation is usually made by people who are upset because their point of view is not being represented as they feel it should. The question about whether issues matter is another one altogether. Of course they do. I mean, most people aren't interested in the minute detail of a candidate's platform, but most voters certainly want to know where candidates stand in broad outlines.
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Arlington, Va.: Re: Prop 187. Sure, California has changed. Often not noted is that Prop 187 targeted ILLEGAL immigrants, not legal ones. And Terry, are you saying in your column that you think 187 would fail if it were there today? The problem with 187 was the ad campaign, especially the commercial 'they keep coming,' which sent a negative message. But replayed with a slightly more nuanced message, I bet it would pass again.
Terry Neal: You raise a very good point. I think the biggest problem, at least in terms of the backlash, was the hamfisted way Pete Wilson and his party went about advocating the issue. There was, of course, that famous commercial of Mexicans scampering across the border, which was seen by many people as nothing more than a blanket appeal to xenophobia.
I'm not sure whether 187 would pass today or not. It might. I'm certainly not suggesting that there aren't a lot of people out there who support its goals. But people have to remember also that 187 itself helped changed the political landscape: it led to massive voter registration of Hispanics and Asians, who in turn supported Democrats overwhelmingly. And that has been one of the causes for the demise of the GOP in California.
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Alexandria, Va.: So, has the California recall sucked the air out of the presidential race, or what? I mean, who cares about what Howard Dean is saying in Iowa today when we have news about Arianna's tax returns!
Terry Neal: Haha...That's funny. Well, certainly for now it has sucked all of the political air out of the room. The Dems are traipsing are hanging out at the Iowa State Fair (where pork chop on a stick are one of the fan favorites--really!), and people are more focused on Arianna's tax returns. Amazing. But I believe this is a temporary frenzy. For one thing, the election is on October 7, which is still a few months before the first primary. Things will settle down soon, and the media will regain some perspective. But this is not to say what's happening in California is not important. The outcome of this recall situation could impact next year's presidential election. So it is important.
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Laurel, Md.: Even as a Gray Davis hater, I find it unfair and undemocratic for him to be the only one excluded from the 'replacement' ballot. I can't believe the state Supreme Court won't hear his case.
What is preventing Davis from appealing to a federal court, based on an "equal access" type of claim?
Terry Neal: I don't claim to know or understand all of the legal possibilities and ramifications with this whole recall thing. But I will say, though, that I'm kind of split on whether Davis should be allowed to run as a replacement. On one hand, it seems ludicrous that a candidate would be listed on a list of candidates to replace himself if the voters decide he should be replaced. On the other hand, it seems unfair to me that Davis could get 49.9 percent of the vote in the recall and be replaced by someone who gets 15 percent of the vote. In other words, of the rules allowed Davis to be on the list of replacements, he could -- conceivably -- be recalled by the voters, but still win the election to replace himself if he received a plurality of the votes.
Confusing, huh?
Whatever.
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Rockville, Md.: If Gov. Davis were to resign and Lt. Gov. Bustamante became Governor, would the recall go away?
Terry Neal: I have been asked this question many times, and apparently the answer is no. The recall would not go away. It would still be held.
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Indianapolis, Ind.: Couldn't Warren Buffet addition to Swartzenegger's Team diminish this Republican victory? Especially if Buffet continues to stay on the team after Swartzenegger wins (if he wins). Buffert has been critical of Republican economic policies.
Terry Neal: This is an interesting point. Yesterday, apparently, the good folks at the super-conservative Club for Growth criticized Schwarzenegger's appointment of Buffet, who, as you said, has been critical of GOP tax policies at times. But the thing is, I don't believe the Club for Growth necessarily speaks for most Californians. The state, after all, is not exactly a right-wing stronghold. My guess is most people in California don't have a clue who Buffet is and could care less. But among the people who do know him, it will probably be a net positive for Schwarzenegger, because he brings some real business/economic chops to the team.
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Harrisburg, Pa.: Was Arnold appearing with Pete Wilson and Pete Wilson's advisors a mistake? Pete Wilson was not that popular a governor. Doesn't this deflate the claim that Arnold is not a politician now that he has surrounded himself with some of the biggest political insiders in California?
Terry Neal: This is such an astute question. It is also one of the mysteries of the Schwarzenegger candidacy. I talked to David Horowitz, the famous liberal-turned-fierbrand conservative, about this and quoted him in my column yesterday as suggesting that Schwarzenegger did this for strategic reasons. Here's his line of thinking: Most conservatives hated Wilson until he took on the mantle of leader of the Proposition 187 and Proposition 209 (anti-affirmative) initiatives. By taking on Wilson, he sends a symbolic message to conservatives that he's with them--at least on some issues. And by bringing on Wilson's team, he brings on a bunch of smart folks who've run statewide and understand how to campaign in California.
I tend to agree with this line of thinking. In other words, it balances him out some. It's a moderate state, and now he's got a little something for the left, a little something for the right, and it all puts him right in the middle.
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Alexandria, Va.: If Gray Davis resigned, could he then run to replace his replacement?
Terry Neal: My understanding is no, because the deadline to be put on the replacement ballot has already passed.
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Los Angeles, Calif.: As a member of US English, I was very disturbed by your column. You devote most of your space to a litany of "hate group" insinuations and one memo written by one person to tar the organization (and presumably, candidate Schwarzenegger) as hatemongers, before (finally) conceding the possibility that a lot of regular, decent people also support the organization and its goal: that English should be our common language.
Forcing local governments and health care providers to provide translations and printed materials in each of the 100+ languages used by immigrants is ridiculous, but if you DO insist on translating into Spanish, then why not Chinese? Then why not French, Swedish, and Urdu? It's one thing to take these stands but it's another to ignore to their (il)logical conclusions.
This is the same error used by those who attack anyone who questions the ability of this country to absorb unlimited immigration as "racists," without ever considering the inevitable consequence of their "open borders" position. There are literally billions of people living in poverty, and there's only one way to determine which of those get to immigrate to this country--legislation. We, of course, have legislation, but for some reason it's OK to ignore those laws.
Don't assume that all immigrants will vote in lockstep with LaRaza and the rest of the "minority" majority. Many immigrants, especially those with children, strongly prefer that their children learn English as quickly as possible.
Terry Neal: Thank you for your note. But I'll respectfully disagree. This is not a six degrees of separation thing here. The founder of your organization, as well as the current spokesman are either white supremacist or at least hold some views that could be considered such. The point of my column was not to say--and I clearly make this point--that Schwarzenegger should not be considered guilty by association. But he should--as member of the board of advisors of a group with very clear policy objectives--discuss his involvement with the organization and his association, if any with some of the controversial people in it. It could very well be that he has perfectly acceptable explanations. But given his refusal so far to talk about any substantive policy matters, we don't know the answer to these and many other questions.
Secondly, even if he has absolutely no association with the controversial people in your organization, there is still a valid question about his position on this issue. I don't say that either assuming that a majority of people disagree with it. But I am saying, many voters in California, on both sides of the fence, would like to know where he stands on the issue of English as the official language. Is that too much to ask?
Secondly, you present your side of the issue. But there is another side as well:
The issue is not whether immigrants SHOULD learn to speak English. Of course they should. No one disagrees with that. In fact, the vast majority of immigrants do, because they understand they cannot be successful in this country without learning English.
The other side of the argument is that people should speak English because the marketplace demands they do, not because the government requires them to, which is what U.S. English proposes.
If you disagree, that's fine. That's what America is all about.
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New York, N.Y.: Doesn't the recall just prove again that the Republican party cannot win an honest election and must rig things so that the majority candidate will lose? How will this perception play out in the 2004 races?
Terry Neal: I think it's kind of hard to argue that the GOP can't win an honest election, given that they hold a majority of governorships and majorities in the House and Senate. Having said that, I'd rather leave the question of fairness over what happened in the 2000 presidential election and what is happening now in 2003 in California for people to judge for themselves.
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Wheaton, Md.: We all know Gary Coleman is the most qualified canadate to be governor of Califonia. Don't you think he's being ignored because he can't be seen behind the podium? There is nothing wrong with Gary Coleman that a couple of phone books wouldn't fix.
Terry Neal: Whatchoo talkin' 'bout Willis!?
Ummm, ok, this is the first time I've heard this theory. Let me look into this and get back to you.
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Terry Neal: OK, on that serious note, I'm going to have to wrap it up today. As always, it was a pleasure. Talk to you soon!
Terry
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