Washingtonpost.com: Live Online

How do you rate the Bush administration's handling of the Iraq situation? Now that the Republicans control every branch of government what issues can we expect to dominate the next two years? Which Democrat is best able to run a successful presidential campaign in 2004?

washingtonpost.com Chief Political Correspondent Terry Neal brought his Talking Points column live to field questions and comments on the latest in political news.

The transcript follows.

Editor's Note: Washingtonpost.com moderators retain editorial control over Live Online discussions and choose the most relevant questions for guests and hosts; guests and hosts can decline to answer questions.

Saint Louis, Mo.: I read somewhere this week on the Web that the real reason Dick Gephardt was running for president was to position himself to make a run at Kit Bond for Senate in 2004? That sounded pretty nuts to me seeing that Gephardt was the number one Democrat in the House and would give that up to be a the junior senator from Missouri?

Terry Neal: Hello everyone...I figured we'd get this chat started with a question from a fellow Show-Me-Stater (I grew up in Kansas City, Mo.).
Re: your question...I don't buy it. Gephardt has already been the House speaker and minority leader. He also ran for president in '88. After another run, I don't think being the junior senator from Missouri is among his goals.

Indiananpolis, Ind.: Didn't it strike you as weird that the President was in Georgia in campaign mode while Turkey and the U.S. were in a bidding war over how much it's going to cost us to buy their loyalty?

Also, it looked bad to see this bidding war splashed all over the news, didn't it? Couldn't it have been done more quietly?

washingtonpost.com: Turkey Official: Agreement on Troop Deal (AP, Feb. 21, 2003)

Terry Neal: There are two big issues on the minds of voters now...Iraq and the economy. President Bush is taking great pains to avoid being seen as obsessed only with war on Iraq. Remember, his father was in this position more than a decade ago, and what the son learned from the father and Bill Clinton, frankly, that yes, it is the economy stupid. So Bush went to Georgia to talk about the economy. As for your second question, I don't know how it could have been done any more quietly. It's a big story--given Turkey's strategic importance--and once reporters got the scoop, it was their duty to run with the story, making it impossible for the administration to ignore it.

Washington, D.C.: Hi, Terry. I hope you enjoyed your lunch at Morton's! I was there too. Anyway, I wondered what you think about Rob Reiner's endorsement of Howard Dean. This strikes me as infinitely more useful than the Martin Sheen endorsement, since Reiner is an increasingly important fundraiser among California Democrats.

Terry Neal: Hmmm...Now this is a little scary. Just when you think you're being paranoid, you find out someone REALLY is watching you...Just so no one thinks all I do is power lunch in Washington D.C., I should explain that my lunch was with Vice President Cheney's former press secretary, Juleanna Glover Weiss, and it followed a morning spent at the DNC's winter meeting here in DC. Dean was one of four candidates to speak today, and I must say, I thought his speech was the best. At this point, I would put him in the second tier of candidates, just because his name recognition at this point is not so hot. But I think he's got a chance of moving into the first tier, along with Lieberman, Gephardt, Edwards and Kerry. His message--which was that Democratic leadership had caved into Bush on Iraq, taxes, education, etc--seemed to really fire up the base and differentiate him from the other four I just mentioned. I think he will eventually be seen as more electable than Kucinich, Sharpton and Moseley-Braun and get a boost because of it. I doubt the endorsements of people like Rob Reiner ultimately make much difference--especially for a guy who is running as someone who fights for regular folks. But yes, Reiner's fund-raising ability could be very helpful, given the mountain of money that lefty Hollywood--which can't stand Bush--is ready to pour into the race.

Washington, D.C.: What's with the Moseley-Braun bashing? Are all the other candidates scandal-free? And, is Al Sharpton REALLY a serious contender and if so, HOW is he a more serious contender than Carol?

Terry Neal: Good question. Well, look, politics is a tough business. And I certainly Moseley-Braun is not the only candidate in the field to ever deal with a scandal. But here's the thing: she's a one-term senator who lost her office to a political unknown, largely because of the scandals that seemed to dog her campaign. I'm making no judgment about whether this is fair or not, but it is a fact. I think it would be quite difficult for a candidate with that history, who is also relatively unknown, to overcome that. The biggest problem, as black pollster Ron Lester told me in a column I wrote last week, is on the donor level. Who is going to contribute to your campaign? How much money can you raise? Having said that, I thought her speech was very good at the DNC meeting today...She clearly has a strong grasp of the issues and does a good job of laying it all out there.
Here's a link to my column from last week...

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A8352-2003Feb14.html

Burke, Va.: Why aren't we hearing more about how Bush's numbers are dropping in the polls?

Terry Neal: Well, I think I've actually heard and read quite a bit about it. But you can obsess only so much on polls. Beyond that, Bush's numbers are simply returning to the realm of reality. Most of the polls I've seen still have him in the mid- to upper- 50s, which is still pretty good.

Washington, D.C.: Is Bush aware of the poor reception his domestic and international policies is getting all over the world? Does he even care?

Terry Neal: I think Bush is aware. But remember the line from his State of the Union speech. I'm paraphrasing, so don't sue me, but it was something like, "we don't rely on the opinions of others in making our decisions." ... The point is, I think Bush cares more about how it's playing at home, particularly with the GOP's conservative base, than how it's playing abroad. There's a feeling among many conservatives that the U.S. has allowed itself to be stepped on by the U.N., NATO, etc., and that obsessing about multilaterism is not always in this nation's best interest.

washingtonpost.com: Feb. 14 Talking Points: Moseley-Braun Adds Intrigue to Presidential Race

Mt. Gilead, Ohio: Which Democrat has the greatest appeal for the younger generation (ages 18-30)?

Terry Neal: It's too early to tell...Some folks are saying Dean might have the edge with that demographic at this point, but I don't know. It was interesting to see that at today's DNC shindig, dozens and dozens of young, college-aged students showed up shouting, blowing whisltles and chanting for Dean today. Granted, that doesn't mean much. But it's clear that his campaign is trying to send the message that he is the candidate that best appeals to that age group. And he had a line in his speech about how the Democrats have got to stop obsessing with winning and actually stand for something to send a message to young people.

Carson City, Ariz.: Sen. Mccain announced his plans to run for re-election last night. Couple years ago he was going through a Republican led (and admittedly weak) recall effort plus daily attacks from Rush Limbaugh. But even the Club for Growth admits he can't be beat in the primary.

What do you suppose made it possible for him to survive? Especially since he hasn't changed his political opinions.

I'm a snowbird but I do follow local politics. I compare McCain's situation to Sen. Specter; who will probably face a primary challenge financed by the Club for Growth, and I wonder what gives. I mean a "national profile" can only do so much in a local election.

Terry Neal: I think McCain appeals to the great masses of American voters who are looking for someone who isn't beholden to one particular party or ideologically rigid. McCain is not afraid to stand up to his own party, but he's not certainly no Democrat in disguise either. I put him in that very small category of politicians like Zell Miller, who are in some ways bigger than their parties, in the sense that they could probably hold their seats as long as they want to, even if lots of folks in their own party don't like them. And yes, I think in McCain's case, national profile does make a difference.

Washington, D.C.: Why is Gephardt a first-tier candidate? He's run and lost how many times, he's not a great campaigner, hasn't taken stands on galvanizing issues, even labor is hedging it's bet. Is he really considered a serious contender?

Terry Neal: Some of what you say is true...And that's ultimately why he may have a tough time capturing the nomination. But look, the other side of it, is that he's got a bigger Rolodex than any of the other candidates, even Lieberman, who was on a national ticket. He's campaigned in, and won Iowa, before and still knows tons of people there. He's got a lot of loyalists on the Hill, who will help him out, even though he couldn't regain the D majority in the late 1990s. And he's got top notch people working for him. So the question is, will those things outweigh some of the baggage that you mention. We'll see.

Rockville, Md.: Do you think that Bush has proven that he is intellectually up to the job?

Terry Neal: I covered the Bush campaign for the Post in 2000 and know him pretty well. I followed him around for 18 months and had many one on one conversations with him, and I saw how he operated and handled himself in many different situations...The bottom line is, I don't think he's dumb. And needless to say, he's not the smartest president we've ever had either. But he is smart enough to surround himself with smart people and listen to their advice. I also think, love him or hate him, he knows what he stands for and directs his people to help him accomplish his goals. Also, and this is important: for however ridiculous this guys sounds sometimes when he's speaking, he's proven to be a masterful politician, positioning himself as a moderate while performing as one of the most conservative president's ever. You can't be dumb and do that.
I wrote a column about Bush's political strategy, that ran recently...

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A56854-2003Feb11.html

washingtonpost.com: Feb. 11 Talking Points: Another Balancing Act for Bush

Washington, D.C.:
I kind of think the press has really missed the right prospective on the Al Sharpton candidacy. Here he is a black candidate running on his own, and the Democratic Party is out to kill him by bringing washed up Carol Mosley-Braun out of retirement, not to win or anything but, simply to kill the chances of the only black Democrat in the race. All this and the Democrats ask for total allegiance from black Americans. Did you guys catch this angle? Does anyone in the press really think Mosely-Braun is sincere in this? Thanks.

Terry Neal: Well, I just wrote a column on this very subject last Friday...I sent a link earlier. Check it out. I think the only problem with your theory, is that Moseley-Braun was urged to get into this race by people like Donna Brazile, an African American woman who ran Gore's campaign in 2000. I don't Donna's goal is to somehow set back the progress of black people in the Democratic party...Nor, however, do I completely buy Donna's contention that she urged Moseley-Braun to get in the race only because she thought she would help excite women and blacks and drum up interest in the Democratic primary. I think the reality is a little more complicated. I think the Democrats would love to have a viable black candidate, but don't believe Sharpton is it or even close.

Terry Neal: Well, everyone, it's been great, but I've got to run. As usual, I was not able to even get close to answering most of the questions. I'm sorry if I didn't get to yours. But I'll be back in a couple weeks and hopefully if you're back too, I'll get to you then. Take care and have a good, safe weekend.

Terry

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