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Vernon Loeb and Dana Priest Washington Post Staff Writers Wednesday, July 30, 2003; Noon ET
Post military reporter Vernon Loeb and Post intelligence reporter Dana Priest were online Wednesday, July 30 at Noon p.m. ET, to talk about the latest developments in national security and defense. Loeb covers military defense and national security issues. Priest covers intelligence and recently wrote "The Mission: Waging War and Keeping Peace With America's Military" (W.W. Norton). The book chronicles the increasing frequency with which the military is called upon to solve political and economic problems. The transcript follows. Editor's Note: washingtonpost.com moderators retain editorial control over Live Online discussions and choose the most relevant questions for guests and hosts; guests and hosts can decline to answer questions.
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Vernon Loeb : Hello everyone. We've had a George Bush news conference already this morning, and the Pentagon won't be soliciting bettors on terrorist events after all. Let's get going.
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Chicago, Ill.:
How is it that the White House view of the
potential damage done by declassifying
the 28 Saudi-related pages of the 9/11
document is so different from, say,
Republican Senator Richard Shelby's (he
says 90-95% could be safely
declassified) ? The logical conclusion of
the W.H. stance would seem to be that
Shelby either (a) doesn't have full
comprehension of the intelligence, or (b)
is recommending an irresponsible
divulgence of data. Comments?
Dana Priest: Many people believe the declassification system is broken and has been for a long time. Mainly because it is so subjective. This may be the case here. It is possible for the White House to see it one way and others to see it differently. What is difficult to understand, though, is why a partial declassification couldn't happen. It's hard to imagine that the CIA couldn't hide sources and methods, which leads me to believe that the main reason for keeping it secret is there must be some big investigation going on of individuals we in the press haven't identified. Can't be Bayoumi or Bassnan, must be someone else. Could be a Saudi official or government department which doesn't know it's being looked at.
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Harlingen, Texas:
While I'm no fan of Admiral Poindexter, someone should point that the "terrorist futures" market idea was actually based on some existing work that has demonstrated predictive value. A Forbes article today about market-based forecasting is worth reading, "Is a Futures Market on Terror Outlandish?: (Fortune)
It's a pity that the program made such an irresistible target for political "outrage," and it's a pity that the Pentagon caved so quickly.
Vernon Loeb : Well, I'm not sure they had any choice, given the outrage being expressed on Capitol Hill, and the weird nature of the program itself. While this kind of market-driven predictive technique may have worked in other areas, I have a hard time believing it would have worked at all in terms of predicting terrorist attacks and regime overthrows in the Middle East. I mean, it is possible to be an expert on commodities markets and things like that. But how does anyone really acquire expertise on the inner workings of al Qaeda. I just don't get the theory behind it, and the politics really don't work, as we have seen.
Dana Priest: .
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Collegeville, PA: Hello Dana
What are your thoughts on the notion that Iraq is
not the real target, that based on the writings of
Wolfowitz, Perl, etc. that Iraq was an opportunity
seized to implement the grander strategy of
eliminating international terrorism and its
sponsors, democratizing the Middle East and
securing an energy resource?
Almost two years following September 11 we now
have Iran, the major sponsor of international
terrorism (at least the Islamic version) for all
intenesive purposes surrounded by US forces or
our allies (US forces in Iraq, Afghanistan,
Khazikistan, Turkmenistan, Georgia and the
Arabian and Indian Oceans and Turkey) and
Syria, another sponsor of international terrorism
wedged between US forces in Iraq, Turkey and
Israel.
I'm not sure if Damascus or Tehran are targets
themselves but the fact that we now sit on each of
their borders with 150,000 troops, have recently
demonstrated what US military might can do and
our willingness to sacrifice American lives to
eliminate gathering dangers has to have the
Baathist in Syria and the Ayatollahs in Iran
rethinking their geopolitical strategies.
Dana Priest: Yes, I think surrounding and intimidating (through the example of a war) Iran and Syria is part of the admininstration's larger, longer term strategy for changing the Middle East writ large. President Bush said as much today when he said the goal of going to war in Iraq was "changing the attitudes of people in the Middle East." That's the domino theory people talked about before war, Iraq being the first domino. Critics say it's pie-in-the-sky thinking to suggest that war and occupation will convince people in the Middle East to embrace the United States and its political system.
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Washington, DC: Since Poindexter seems to keep embarrasing the Defense Department, do you think he will be asked to leave? Or at least shifted somewhere far out of the public eye?
Vernon Loeb : I have a hard time predicting what Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld will do, particularly when it comes to figures like Poindexter. But I can't believe this latest scandal over the terror futures program could do much for his job security. But then again, I could never really understand why the Pentagon brought him back to DARPA in the first place.
Dana Priest: .
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College Park, Md.: Just wondering what has happened to all of the great information that was supposed to come from the arrests of high-profile Iraqis like Tariq Aziz, et. al. They seem to have disappeared, and it seems obvious that they gave no secret information about WMDs to the U.S.
Are they being hidden because they know too much? About things like Halliburton's dealings with Saddam up to March 2003? Maybe about U.S. involvement in Iraq prior to 1991? For all of the emphasis on the deck of cards, the silence now is deafening. And possibly damning?
Dana Priest: The absence of any progress in finding WMD would suggest you are right. Yes, a good possibility that "the deck" is not telling interrogators what they hoped to hear and that is why there is silence. Could also be that the CIA doesn't yet want anyone to know whose being cooperative or what they are saying so they can leverage the information more effectively.
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Philadelphia, Pa.: What's up with Robert Hanssen? Is he going to spent the rest of his life in the supermax prison in Colorado? When will DOJ-OIG issue their report on the case?
Vernon Loeb : I haven't really been following the Hanssen case since I started covering defense a few years ago, but I doubt very seriously whether he will ever get out of jail. And I doubt the Justice Department or the FBI will ever be very forthcoming in releasing internal reviews of the case. I thought David Wise's book on the subject was actually quite good.
Dana Priest: .
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Alexandria, Va.: Hi Vernon and Dana --
Isn't it time the Post did a full-on rundown of every single claim the Bush Administration made to show exactly how deceptive this administration has been? From Niger nuclear material to Iraqi drones that can fly 6,000 miles to stockpiles of WMD to al Qaeda linkages to how long U.S. troops will be in Iraq to CIA intimidation to the cost of the war and occupation to Wolfowitz's change of the rationale ... whew! In virtually every single case, the Bush Administration was either less than forthcoming, misleading, out-and-out wrong, or untruthful, and it's time to hold them thoroughly accountable. A chart showing each claim on one side and the veracity of the claim on the other would finally crystalize what we all know to be true -- the Bushies were going to war with Iraq no matter what, and they invented or trumped up the reasons to go to war and purposefully misled the public as to the costs and duration of the war and rebuilding effort. It's time we saw it all in one neat and clear image, as opposed to the single daily stories which mask the massive nature of this fraud perpetrated on the American people.
Dana Priest: Some of the claims versus intelligence come down to judgment calls and are not really black and white. We've worked with the ones that appear to be more clear cut. As you have seen in the Niger case, it is impossible to unearth all angles right from the start. New revelations came to light day by day. Also, taking a larger approach means not producing daily stories, but holding back for a while. Not sure anyone's ready to do that yet since this issue continues to be of such high interest.
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Somewhere USA: I have always thought that there should be a nationaldefense driven market in real estate in the D.C. area.
I always thought that there should be a nuclear discount on real estate the closer it is located to the center of Washington.
During the cold war, this could have offered significant discounts on housing in the area, and possibly sparked a return to the city.
Vernon Loeb : This is an interesting idea. I think I will pass it along, both to my local tax assessor, and to the mayor of Washington, who is trying to encourage people to move back to the city.
Dana Priest: .
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Baton Rouge LA: Do you agree with reports that our first responders are woefully underfunded and undersupplied to meet the needs of another attack?
Thanks you.
Vernon Loeb : I do, primarily because there are huge numbers of first responders out there in America, and equipping them all with state-of-the-art chemical and biological detection and response equipment is enormously expensive.
Dana Priest: .
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Alexandria, Va.: Hello -- wouldn't it be interesting to see a timeline of the Bush administration's statements on the Niger-Iraq scandal? A date and time on everyone's statement, from the CIA objections in October all the way through to Fleischer's utterances in June and Rice's constant changing of the story (seriously, can enough be made of her saying that a CIA objection was buried in the "bowels of the NSC"? I wonder how George Tenet feels about his personal calls heading to the bowels). I think it would be quite illuminating as to the full scope of this scandal.
Dana Priest: good suggestion. I did a time line that ran July 20 (Sunday) but it was "buried" as we reporters say when our work doesn't make the front page. I thought it was really helpful. Also, the story that ran next to it was very hard-hitting and broke the news that the initial White House account of what was discussed vis a vis the Cincinnati speech was not true. (Something the White House admitted a day or two later). Now that I've vented about what I thought was a poor decision by my editors to bury the story---I feel much better. Thank you.
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Bethesda, Md.: Is the Bush administration's warning about the threat of hijackings perhaps the stupidest thing you've ever read? Hello? You mean terrorists might try to hijack an airplane in virtually any part of the world? Gee, thanks for nothing.
And as usual, there is no specific information which is useful to help prevent an attack.
What's the point of these warnings? To scare people off airlines so more of them will go bankrupt?
Vernon Loeb : I, too, wonder about the value of such warnings. Thanks for your comment.
Dana Priest: .
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Boston, MA:
What if the arab states got together to bet on successful terror attacks in the US? Would we then bomb the houses of everyone that predicted the president would be shot in a given month? Would we invade the county who's citizens made the most money betting how long the twin towers would take to collapse if they bought futures on 9/1/01?
What terrorist is really in it for the money? Did bin Laden kill 3000 people to pick up a few grand in the market, I would imagine not. What individual with information would implicate themselves by entering the market and risk becoming an 'enemy combatant' of the US
These sorts of things are further helping to destroy whatever moral capital we have in the international community. This erosion leaves us with further inflamed terrorist and no international support which costs more lives then this rediculous market would save.
Vernon Loeb : Thanks for your comment.
Dana Priest: .
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Leesburg, Va.:
Longtime NY TIMES "Observer" columnist
Russell Baker once wrote--"Only a fool expects the authorities to tell him
what the news is."
From Defense Sec. Don Rumsfeld to Gen. Myers
and Gen. Franks to Victoria Clarke, et al.,
American reporters (including yourselves)
have not only worked "embedded" alongside the 'authorities', but inbredded as reportage & analyses are reflected through the prism of consistent Pentagon briefings,
press releases filled with misrepresentations, outright lies, confusion, distortions...
Reading international independent journalists and newspaper press reports
provide one with soooo very much more
information to digest. For too long,
the American people have been reading
the Pentagon, and the White House, VERSION. When does the 'truth to power'
journalism enterprise kick-in?
Vernon Loeb : Thanks for that commentary, being a long-time Russell Baker fan myself. But I beg to differ on European journalists providing sooo much more information to digest. I think the quality U.S. newspapers_and admittedly, I'm biased here_are much better, and much more accurate. The partisan press tradition, particularly in Britain, I find very distorting.
Dana Priest: .
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Fairfax, Va.: Have the various interrogators ever been able to ascertain why 9-11-01 was chosen for the date of the attacks?
Dana Priest: Not that I know of.
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Washington, D.C.: Just read Jane Mayer's New Yorker piece on the hunt for bin Laden and the question of whether Pakistan is doing all it can in the "tribal areas".
I've got a solution to the whole problem: trade the F-16s for bin Laden's head. Why hasn't anyone thought of it before?
Dana Priest: Great idea! Unfortunately I don't think the Pakistan government, which wants the F-16s, can really get to him. They would have to trade something in return to tribal areas and I doubt money or goods would do it or they would have tried that already.
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Baltimore, Md.: I was a Marine officer in the 80s. Friends that stayed in the Marines are now in more senior positions. Those that I have talked to seem frustrated by two things: (1) overcommitment of active duty and reserve personnel. People are over-deployed and have little time back with their families before shipping out again; and (2) The unwillingness of civilian leadership in DOD to give military leaders' ideas more consideration. Senior military officers appear to receive constant critism for ideas without constructive suggestions for how to move forward. This speaks to the lack of real guidance coming from above, and then criticizing ideas put forth in the context of little guidance. Does this situation reflect your information?
Dana Priest: Dead on.
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McLean: In the Sharon/Bush remarks broadcast yesterday, did Bush mistake Pollard for a terrorist? It sounded like it from the transcript.
Vernon Loeb : Yes, it sounded that way to me, when he said he doesn't let those who kill other people out of jail.
Dana Priest: .
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Cumberland, Md.: I have seen a lot of voice saying that we should have taken Uday and Qusay alive, but in reality wouldn't taking them alive have led to all sorts of problems like where to try them, who would try them, where to safely imprison them Etc?
Vernon Loeb : Capturing Uday and Qusay would have created all the problems you mention. I assume the U.S. would have turned them over to the Iraqi Governing Council or some other Iraqi forum for trial, since their crimes were against the Iraqi people. They certainly knew a lot. Whether they would have revealed much in interrogations is another question. Now we'll never know.
Dana Priest: .
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Brussels, Belgium: It appears the urgent need to for starting the war in Iraq was not that the Iraq was an imminent threat to the U.S., but that the UN inspections and the continuing review of intelligence were eliminating the Bush Administration's rationale for war (aluminum tubes, nuclear facilities, yellowcake from Niger, WMD's, mobile biological and chemical labs, etc.). We had to start the war quickly, otherwise all of the reasons would be proven wrong.
Why aren't Administration officials asked about these other reasons instead of focusing on the 16 words in the SOTU?
Dana Priest: Interesting idea, although I can't imagine that driving the timing of war. On the second point, though, if you read The Post, you'll see we have done stories questioning many other intelligence items--in fact all the ones you've mentioned, and more.
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Los Angeles, Calif.: The president seems so inarticulate when answering questions and maybe this why his handlers keep him from holding news conferences. His performance is rather weak and almost pathetic compared to other world leaders. My question, does the press corps believe the president is well informed when it comes to our foreign policy? I mean does he really grasp what his State and Defense Departments are trying to do?
Dana Priest: It does appear sometimes that the world of Defense and State are new to him (which, of course, they are). Today he commented on how impressed he was by the Palestinian Finance Minister who told him, with great passion, how vibrant a Palestinian state could be. He seemed to be excited by this, as if it were the first time he had heard it. Yet the aspirations for a vibrant, peaceful Palestinian state have propelled the Palestinians for decades.
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Atlanta, Ga.: Would President Bush not have been better off to accept responsibility for the Niger uranium mistake right at the beginning? It seems he only prolonged the public controversy by instead sending out first George Tenet and then Stephen Hadley with stories no one believed. In the process, he has made his National Security Adviser look not quite up to her job, which though probably an accurate impression but is not one the administration ought to encourage.
Vernon Loeb : Yes, he probably would have. And he did take responsibility for that remark today during his press conference.
Dana Priest: .
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Evanston, IL: Today it was announced that the Dept. of Homeland Security would have to cut the number of Air Marshals due to lack of funds. This at a time when there seems to be an increased threat to the airlines from terrorism.
Would you accept the premise that there is a trade off between the considerable costs the Iraq occupation and cutbacks in anti-terrorism efforts?
Vernon Loeb : The timing of the announcement about cutting air marshals is certainly interesting, coming as it did simaltaneously with the warning of new terrorist hijackings. And I certainly agree that the enormous cost of rebuilding Iraq will necessitate trade-offs here in the United States. Sen. Barbara Boxer of California was making that very point during a hearing on Iraq reconstruction I covered yesterday, in which she noted that we are now spending $45 billion a year on Iraq, and $6.7 billion a year on Head Start.
Dana Priest: .
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Alexandria, Va.: It looks to me as though the Coalition forces have regained the initiative in Iraq with the crucial event being the deaths of the two Saddam sons and possibly just as important the capture with them of documents relating to the personnel and strategy of the dead-enders guerrilla war. Yes, there was a flurry of reprisal attacks right after the deaths, but it seems clear that with the intelligence this gave them, our forces have been able to keep mounting new raids to capture key guerrilla leaders and stockpiles of arms that have kept the Saddamite forces busy just staying alive and free, rather than staging new attacks against us. I have been rather amused at the frustration of certain segments of the media over not having any new American casualties to report in the last couple of days, even resorting to repeating loss reports from days ago and once trying to use an American death due to a traffic accident (which could have happened in Ft. Belvoir) to inflate the totals. Comments?
Dana Priest: You may well be right on your assessment that they have regained the initiative but, frankly, I think it's far too early to tell. I disagree that the media--speaking for The Post--would be frustrated with the lack of casualties!
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Cambridge, MA: In his press conference today, the President accepted responsibility for his SOTU address. Does that mean that his team foresees limited fallout with regards to his speech?
Vernon Loeb : I don't know what his team concludes about fallout. The damage has been done. I don't think it's huge, but it's there, and will be an issue in the campaign. I'm not sure there was really much the president could do today at his press conference, beyond accepting responsibility.
Dana Priest: .
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Evanston ,IL:
Hello and thanks much for making
yourselves available today.
How come I've NEVER heard anyone in
the press seriously analyze or
acknowledge the timings of
Administration terror warnings, (be they
accompanied by the sophomoric
spin-the-alert-color-wheel-game or not)
as they coincide SO frequently with the
Administration's desire to take the
media's eyes off of other stories that
could reveal Administration wrongdoing?
It's a ploy that the press seems to gladly
fall for, over and over.
Vernon Loeb : I agree with you that the warnings are stupid, but I think they issue them when they start to pick up high levels of chatter, they worry, they don't really know what's going on, so they err on the side of caution. I don't believe that they issue them to distract us from other stories or issues. I'm just not that cynical, and I'm pretty cynical.
Dana Priest: .
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Chattanooga, Tenn.: Two contradictory reactions to yesterday's report on the Homeland Security warning of a new 9/11-style plot using airplanes. (1) Al Qaeda would be going up against a relative strength of U.S. security -- at least, a greatly strengthened area -- hence, it seems less likely. (2) Al Qaeda has long showed itself determined to revisit targets, in which case aviation and Washington D.C. would both seem to be in the crosshairs.
To which of these views do U.S. intelligence analysts you talk to give more weight?
Thanks.
Dana Priest: Both can be true but revisiting doesn't mean successfully carrying out attacks. That, I hope, is the difference.
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Rockville: The futures market idea is one of the craziest things I've heard; it seems that it would offer terrorists a great way to finance their operations. Place a bet on a terrorist attack, make it happen, collect and then reinvest. Seems a little wierd. More important for me, however, is what the idea says about the administration and the people who comprise it. Are they really so myopic as to beleive that unfettered market forces can solve all problems?
Vernon Loeb : Good question. The program was totally crazy. But I'm not sure Rumsfeld or Wolfowitz knew anything about it.
Dana Priest: .
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new york city:
i would like to know, what do reporters in
washington think about the president taking off an
entire month while we are still at war? be honest!
and how can you cover him effectively while he's on
the ranch and out fundraising for all of august?
since the president is the leader of the 'free world",
is this like a mini vacation from the world?
Vernon Loeb : This issue has been raised during his earlier vacations. Clearly, Bush values spending August in Crawford. I'm sure getting information from the administration is even harder for the reporters when they are all encamped down in Texas than it is when they are here. I'm sure Bush has a lot to do when he's on vacation. I know his CIA briefers give him the President's Daily Brief every morning down in Texas. I don't know how it goes down with most Americans, or most reporters in Washington. For me, the news never really stops, whether Bush is here, or in Crawford, especially with 150,000 troops in Iraq (who are most definitely not on vacation).
Dana Priest: .
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Evanston, IL: Thanks for answering my question.
I have another one...
When will the Defense budget... and US ability to respond to a threat... begin to feel the effects of the Federal budget deficit? I'd hate to see our national security threatened by bad financial policy.
Vernon Loeb : I've been waiting for the deficit to put the brakes on the defense budget, but so far it hasn't happened, and I doubt it will happen next year. I expect the defense budget to, again, go up by $15 billion or so next year, and represent more than half of the increase in domestic discretinoary spending, as it did this past year. And this will continue to happen, until members of Congress feel there is a political price to be paid for cutting other domestic programs at the expense of defense. Since 911, they have obviously felt the political risk was in not increasing defense. Defense spending, for the past few years, has been a non-issue. Both Democrats and Republicans in large numbers have supported large, sustained increases.
Dana Priest: .
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Tucson, Ariz.: They say that intelligence is an art, not a science. Do you think the manipulation of counter-intelligence (war on terror, alerts) also has been turned into an art form in Washington? Thanks.
Dana Priest: Not necessarily, but I do think the counter-intelligence warnings are an art form too, since there is nothing firm in them, but they are valuable warning to have nonetheless.
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Vernon Loeb : Well, that hour passed quickly. Thanks for all those great questions. I'm sorry we couldn't get to all of them. I'm gong to be on vacation for three weeks (not quite as long as the president), so I'll be back in late August. Talk to you then.
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Arlington, Va.: Has anyone at the White House or the CIA taken steps to determine whether national security has been compromised by the July 14 leak to Robert Novak that Valerie Plame Wilson (wife of Amb. Wilson of Niger/yellowcake fame) was a CIA operative?
Dana Priest: Last question. I feel certain they would do this as a matter of routine in a case like this. Thanks and talk to you next week. Best, Dana
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Dana Priest: .
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Vernon Loeb : today's show. Thanks to everyone who joined the discussion.
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