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Global Water Outlook
With Mark W. Rosegrant
Senior Research Fellow, Environment and Production Technology
International Food Policy Research Institute
Thursday, Oct. 17, 2002; 12:30 p.m. ET

The Global Water Outlook to 2025: Averting an Impending Crisis is a report by the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) and the International Water Management Institute (IWMI) released on World Food Day. Some projections from the report focus on how global agricultural crops and projects will be affected by the loss of water. One projection is that by 2025, "water scarcity will cause annual global losses of 350 million metric tons of food production-slightly more than the entire current U.S. grain crop."

From household and urban water use to irrigation projects for grain and food production, the annual loss of water can be dramatic to a point where countries such as India would lose their entire grain crop. "After 2010, key aquifers in China, India, West Asia and North Africa will begin to fail."

Mark W. Rosegrant, Senior Research Fellow, Environment and Production Technology at the International Food Policy Research Institute, will be online to discuss the report on Thursday, Oct. 17, at 12:30 p.m. ET.

He holds a Ph.D. in Public Policy from the University of Michigan, and has 24 years of experience in research and policy analysis in agriculture and economic development, with an emphasis on critical water issues as they impact world food security, rural livelihoods, and environmental sustainability.

The transcript follows below.

Editor's Note: Washingtonpost.com moderators retain editorial control over Live Online discussions and choose the most relevant questions for guests and hosts; guests and hosts can decline to answer questions.

Mark W. Rosegrant: Let me start by summarizing a few key messages from the report. First, if current water policies and investments continue, increasing competition for water from household, industrial, and environmental use will severely limit water availability for irrigation. This, in turn, will slow future growth in food production.

Second, progress in extending access to clean drinking water and improving water quality will be far too slow, and the provision of water to environmental uses such as wetlands and streamflows to maintain biodiversity will be inadequate.

But, very importantly, these negative outcomes are not inevitable. Key changes in water management, incentives, and investments can achieve a far more sustainable supply of water and food for us all.

The key policies that can generate more positive outcomes include the following.

Selective investments in irrigation development and expansion of water supply systems.

But the most crucial steps are to conserve water and improving the efficiency of water use in existing urban water and irrigation systems through water management and policy reform, and investing in improved technology and infrastructure in these systems.

Industrial water recycling, such as recirculation of cooling water, can be a major source of water savings in most developing countries.

Domestic water use can be made more efficient by steps ranging from repairing leaks in municipal systems to installing low-flow showerheads.

Efficiency in irrigation water use can be enhanced by technologies like drip irrigation and micro-sprinklers; management changes like the adoption of demand-based irrigation scheduling systems and conjunctive use of surface and groundwater, and institutional improvements like the creation of effective water user associations.

But to make real progress in conserving water in existing uses, the incentive for water conservation must be strengthened.

An important step in strengthening incentives is to increase water prices to reflect its value, while providing subsidies only to the most needy. Revenues from price hikes would then be invested to provide poor households with access to clean water.

In the irrigation sector, water price increase could be punitive to farmers, since water is a significant cost of production. But water pricing and trading schemes can instead be designed to pay farmers for reducing water use. The devolution of strong water rights for farmers or water user associations would facilitate development of water trading that would provide incentives to reduce wasteful water use.

A final key is to improve crop productivity per unit of water and land through integrated water management and agricultural research, with an emphasis on crop breeding and rainfed agriculture. Improved water management and crop productivity in rainfed areas would help relieve pressure on irrigated agriculture and on water resources.

Maryland: It may sound like a naive question, but here it goes: If we live on a planet that is three-fifths covered with water, how can we be having a water crisis? Are the costs of desalination so overwhelming as to rule it out as a solution, or is there a lack of will (political/economic/social) to devote the resources necessary to make it a solution?

Mark W. Rosegrant:
Desalination has an important role to play in coastal regions of countries that are both relatively rich and very water scarce. But even with continuing technological change, the cost of desalination is too high in most countries. Desalinized water can be cost effective only in coastal cities, and is unlikely to ever be cheap enough for agricultural uses. Desalinized water currently accounts for less then one-tenth of one percent of water use.

Kingstowne, Va.: Groups such as yours seem to thrive on alarming the public. Hence the direct mail solicitations: "Give now or the oceans will die!" How can you make such absurd claims when the globe is covered by 70 percent water? Sure, it is sea water and must be treated, but if we can send a man to the moon, we can clean enough water to avoid future problems. Can't we?

Mark W. Rosegrant: The report is very balanced, pointing out the potential negative futures, and then providing solutions, as I pointed out in the introduction. But desalination of sea water will not be a major part of the solution.

Reston, Va.: I'm a bit confused relative to the concept of 'water loss'. I took geology and other science classes at a secular college in which it was universally taught that the earth is a closed system - meaning that the total amount of water on the earth is constant, always has been, always will be. So am I to understand the concept of 'water loss' to be in conflict with this view and to posit that the global water amounts are somehow not constant? If that's the case, what is the basis for such a view?

Mark W. Rosegrant: You are right that the total amount of water on earth is essentially constant, though global climate change could alter that. The shortages come about because of rapid increase demand for water catching up with the essentially fixed supply of water in many countries.

Washington, D.C.: What can farmers do to make better use of their water, and what can governments do to help their farmers? And, is there anything US farmers to help their fellow farmers in India or China or other developing countries?

Mark W. Rosegrant: There are a number of technological options that farmers adopt to use water more efficiently, such as drip irrigation and micro-sprinklers. In the US advanced precision farming techniques are also used to pinpoint amounts and location of water applications. But many of these techniques are too expensive for irrigation in developing countries. US farmers and irrigation engineers could help farmers in other countries by adapting technologies to conditions in these countries. For example by using low cost plastic piping for drip irrigation.

Mt. Lebanon, Pa.: Are there human-nourishing food products that yield high caloric value for little water intake? If so, which nations are shifting their focus to these alternatives to the American diet? Clean Pure Water: more precious than Platinum. A pity it's not regarded that way. Thanks much. HLB

Mark W. Rosegrant: As you imply, an important adaptation to growing water scarcity is to shift water use to more valuable crops that use relatively little water. It is also essential to reduce water use on traditional high calorie crops such as rice, which is also a very high water user. Important research by the International Rice Research Institute together with researchers in China is exploring water management methods that drastically reduce water use on rice without sacrificing yields.

Mt. Lebanon, Pa.: Followup question related to food. I just read Bruce Feiler: "Walking The Bible" that the Israelis have produced tomatoes and other fruits/nuts in the Negev using salty water deep beneath the desert. It's much saltier than fresh water but much fresher than seawater. Are there many food products than can grow in this kind of water and are countries in semi-arid and arid places experimenting with the Israeli technologies? Thanks much. HLB

Mark W. Rosegrant: Research is underway to breed a wide range of crops that are more tolerant to salty water. It is likely that this will take a number of years before many salt-tolerant crops are in the field, but the longer term outlook is promising. Enhance funding for this research could have a big payoff.

Washington, D.C.: Does your report take into account migration/population growth patterns? For instance, there has been water shortages in Colorado, Florida, etc. These are the very states that have experienced some of the most explosive population growth in the past decade, thus dramatically increasing the demand.

Mark W. Rosegrant: Yes, we acount for migration and population shifts over time in our projections. In addition to the important shifts that you mention in the US, a hugely important trend in developing countries is the rapid rate of urbanization that, together with income growth is driving growth in household demand for water.

Washington, D.C.: What will the loss in the water have on regions that already have dry seasons where there are no rains for months? Shouldn't modern technology be able to overcome water deficits? What I can't understand for instance, is why some countries seem to have know real proactive food policy at all, except for instance, a reactive one in crisis situations of what they don't want Donors to give them in the time of want, rather than what they themselves can produce and create. I for example, find Zambia's situation highly embarrassing - it's quite embarrassing that the government was so inept that it could not grow food for its own nation or develop technology to overcome weather conditions known to have plagued that region over the last 50 years or so. Is the issue one of water scarcity - or the unwillingness of many governments to even inspire people to provide for the basic needs of their own survival?

Mark W. Rosegrant: Modern technology does have an important role as to play in meeting the needs. But as you point out, political will is an essential part of the solution. The water policy reforms that we propose in the report require fundamental changes in institutions and bureaucratic behavior, and will not be easy. Unless governments commit to reform, the situation will continue to get worse.

Silver Spring, Md.: Would increasing the price of water to reflect its actual value actually raise enough money to support the massive infrastructural changes that some developing countries (like China) need? If not, what are some other proposals/ideas (and how viable are they) to fund the necessary changes?

Mark W. Rosegrant: For massive projects such as the Three Gorges dam and the South-North water transfer in China, raising water prices will not be adequate. These projects, which attempt to fulfull major social goals, will require public funds from general taxation revenues.

College Park, Md.: You talk about providing clean drinking water to all areas of the Earth, in particular poor areas. How do you account for areas in which clean water is inherently hard to come by? For example, what about regions like India where wells have been dug, but now may have to be abandoned due to naturally occuring arsenic in the water. Add that to the fact that the rivers are definitely not sanitary, from a human health standpoint, and a population that is increasing by epic proportions and I think we have a real problem on our hands. How does your Global Water Outlook account for this?

Mark W. Rosegrant: You have done an excellent summary of the severe dimensions of the problem. We do attempt to account for these issues in our assessment of water futures. These inherently dry areas require infrastructure to store and supply water when most needed, and major investments need to be made to treat the poor quality water.

Silver Spring, Md.: If water scarcity is likely to increase in the future, do you recommend that farmers in developing countries who support their families through rainfed agriculture abandon farming and look for other ways to earn an income?

Mark W. Rosegrant: In fact, we propose exactly the opposite. Rainfed farming can be an important part of the solution. With higher investment in crop breeding specifically targeted to rainfed areas, together with innovative technology for water harvesting and minimum tillage techniques that capture a greater proportion of rainfall, it is possible to boost rainfed productivity. If this can be done it will help reduce pressure on irrigated farming and water resources.

Phoenix, Ariz.: What is being done if anything by our various governments to solve this situation and what can we as individuals do?

Mark W. Rosegrant: Governments are beginning to undertake some of the necessary reforms, For example, in Indonesia there is a major water policy reform process underway that could provide for water rights to farmers that would empower them to use water more effectively. China is experimenting with different water pricing and water trading schemes to strengthen incentives for water conservation. But progress is slower than it should be in much of the world. As individuals, we can cut back on our own water use, through changing how we use water in house and garden; careful use of water is of course particularly urgent in the western US where you are from.

Vienna, Va.: I think it is hard for the general public to see how global water trends affect national to even local water supplies. Can you describe some local or national bay or river ramifications?

Mark W. Rosegrant: Indeed, much of the US is relatively immune from some of the most severe water problems. But water scarcity could start hitting home sooner rather than later. Plans have been considered to export bulk water from the Great Lakes to Asia and the Middle East, and under WTO and NAFTA rules, this is considered appropriate trade. Local communities will have to work through legal systems to ensure local sovereignty over water. And Canada remains vigilant over period proposals to pipe water south to dry western US basins.

Washington, D.C.: A follow up to the question regarding the recent food aid for Zambia and Zimbabwe. Was the need for food aid due to growing water shortages or something else?

Mark W. Rosegrant: The lack of food was partly due to drought, but also in significant part to bad government policies that disrupted food production.

Washington, D.C.: What effect does privatization of water supplies have on this problem?

Also, with the increasing of international firms buying local water supplies, and the World Trade Organization getting ready to put in rules that would allow water to be thought of as a commodity and not a resource, how can we fight these multinational corporations that will not see conservation as a goal for their bottom lines?

Mark W. Rosegrant: Privatization of urban water systems can be effective if implemented properly, but can also be disastrous if badly managed. The advantages of privatization can be more efficient management, and better access to the capital needed to finance extension of water systems to the poor who are often not served by water systems in developing countries. But it is essential that privatized systems be regulated so as to also provide basic water requirements for the poor at reasonable prices. Although the record of public utilities in developing countries have often been poor, reform of these systems can also be effective.

Washington, D.C.: Obviously, most of the problems of clean-drinking water are going to ocurr in poor countries. Developing the technology you mention is sure to be very costly. How does this report propose to solve the funding problems with this sort of investment, foreign aid?

Mark W. Rosegrant: Foreign aid can help very little here. Investments must be mostly self-financed in the countries. Generation of funds these investments is one reason why is essential to raise the currently subsidized water prices in many urban areas, while reserving subsidies only for the poor.

Mark W. Rosegrant: Thanks to all of you for the great questions. Sorry I couldn't get to all of them. For more information on water issues and answers to the questions (and to order a free copy of the report) please visit our website at www.ifpri.org. Thanks again for your interest.

washingtonpost.com:

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