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Election 2002: Referendums
With M. Dane Waters
Initiative and Referendum Institute President
Wednesday, Nov. 6, 2002; 1 p.m. ET
Northern Virginia voters soundly defeated a regional transportation tax yesterday that opponents said would have funded suburban sprawl and forced families to pay more to governments they already distrust.
M. Dane Waters, president of the Initiative and Referendum Institute, will be online to discuss the
Northern Virginia transportation tax defeat and the outcome of other referendums across the country.
The transcript follows.
Editor's Note: Washingtonpost.com moderators retain editorial control
over Live Online discussions and choose the most relevant questions for guests and hosts; guests and hosts can decline to answer questions.
Toronto, Canada:
After the defeat of the Oregon initiative to institute a single-payer health care system, what are the prospects for Canadian-style medicare catching on in the U.S.?
M. Dane Waters: I don't believe the defeat of the OR measure will stop any debate on adopting a Canadian style system - in fact I think it has increased the debate and discussion on how we should reform the health care system in this country.
Arlington, Va.:
Mr. Waters,
In the wake of the sales tax defeat, do you see this as a victory for "smart growth" advocates? Will our leaders have the courage to take a stand against unrestricted development and propose growth plans in Northern Virginia which reduce the distances between homes and commercial/business centers (or provide mass transit instead)?
M. Dane Waters: Who can really say what the Richmond crowd will do. Some argue that they will go ahead and legislatively raise taxes and fees to compensate for the loss. I believe there is a very limited chance that they will adopt some form of mass transit and they did they would once again have to ask the voters to approve very costly bonds.
Annandale, Va.:
What happened to the controversial voter referendum on marijuana?
M. Dane Waters: I assume you mean the decrim emasure in NV. It was defeated. The drug policy reform movement didn't fare very well this election cycle.
Proud to be an Oregonian:
What do you think of Oregon passing the measure to eliminate the bounty system of paying by the signature for collecting petition signatures? I suspect the prosecutions for fraud (people's signatures being copied onto measures they didn't agree with, for instance) and the folks who carried clipboards for as many as 10 measures had a lot to do with it. As I recall, this measure was put on the ballot that way and had very few invalid signatures compared to other measures. Many of the conversations I had with friends were along the lines of "If they were paid by the hour, they could be supervised by the people paying them."
M. Dane Waters: First of all I believe the measure that was passed is unconstitutional - a federal court in Maine struck down an identical version. As to fraud, the truth is that regardless of how circulators are compensated you will have fraud. All the research shows that a person who is a zealot for an issue and is working for free is just as likely to commit fraud. However, in reality there is very little fraud in the signature collection phase. Over 5 million signatures are collected every election cycle with only a handful of fraudelent signatures occuring and those that do occur are caught by the state. In short, this new measure will do little to help address the problems with the initiative process.
Portland, Ore.:
What is your opinion of Oregon's Ballot
Measure 17? Do you think 18-year olds,
fresh out of high school, should be
permitted to run for state legislature?
M. Dane Waters: That's a tough one. I don't think that I was mature enough at 18 to serve in the state legislature. In any case I thought that measure failed.
Alexandria, Va.:
Do you expect another tax referendum in the next year or two, or is it likely that the State government will stop trying?
M. Dane Waters: I think they will stop trying.
Washington, D.C.:
What was the outcome of the pig protection ballot initiative in Georgia?
M. Dane Waters: There was a pig protetcion issue in FL that passed - it would ban the size of gestation crates for pigs.
Arlington, Va.:
So who actually stopped the Va. Commuter tax - the "Slow Growth" people or the "Don't Raise My Taxes" People?
M. Dane Waters: I think it was the don't rasie my taxes. Voters overall around the country were hesitant to raise taxes with the exception of putting money into edcuation issues. The voters felt that they could put off the road issue for a while but couldn't put off dealing with funding education for their kids.
Washington, D.C.:
Instead of a referendum to increase taxes on the working poor, couldn't the Virginia House of Delegates offer us a referendum to increase taxes on the wealthiest 10 percent of the population? Is there any such effort to increase taxes on the wealthy through ballot initiatives anywhere in the United States?
M. Dane Waters: They could - but it's doubtful since the lobby against such a change would be strong. Additionally, there have been very few efforts at the ballot box to push the wealthy to pay for certain reforms.
Alexandria, Va.:
With all these various voter referendums each year, I wonder: is this really an effective way to decide public policy? I look at some of the questions put before the public on these initiatives, and often they are extremely complex. More often than not, it seems whichever side has the better financed campaign, and the better soundbite, wins.
M. Dane Waters: The research shows that you can't buy a yes vote no matter how much money you have. Money is key, however, at defeating a measure. Simply put, the more money spent against a measure raises voter doubt as to what the measure will do and in turn voters vote no.
Washington, D.C.:
What happened to the gay marriage ballot question in Nevada?
M. Dane Waters: It passed by a 68 to 32 margin.
Washington, D.C.:
It's my understanding that most of the Public Choice voting studies have focused upon referendum decisions, since they offer clear alternatives to the voting public in terms of dollars raised and spent. What do you think public finance economists who study voter behavior will be able to learn from yesterday's defeat of the new sales tax?
M. Dane Waters: I think they will say that the voters decided that with all the uncertainty surrounding the economy that voters chose to maintain the status quo.
Fairfax, Va.:
Is there any way of telling whether the sales tax vote was anti-tax or anti-sprawl?
M. Dane Waters: I think it was more of an anti tax vote.
Fairfax, Va.:
I'm glad the sales tax increase was defeated. Every year Fairfax county ups the real estate assessment on my property. (Arlington is every three years.) My property tax has gone up 40 percent. Exactly WHAT is Virginia doing with all this money that they need to increase taxes even MORE? Especially in a stagnant economy, I just don't understand their thinking.
Obviously a lot of other people didn't either.
M. Dane Waters: Good question. Now that the voters have made it clear that they don't want to spend more money on roads - at there expense - the state legislature will have to figure out a way to make their current revenue stream work.
washingtonpost.com:
That wraps up today's show. Thanks to everyone who joined the
discussion.
Stay tuned to Live Online:
Election
2002: Larry J. Sabato at 2 p.m. ET
Election
2002: Maryland Results at 3 p.m. ET
Election
2002: MSNBC's Bill Press at 4:30 p.m. ET
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