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Election 2002: Maryland
With Donald F. Norris
University of Maryland-Baltimore County Professor of Policy Sciences
Wednesday, Nov. 6, 2002; 3 p.m. ET
Robert L. Ehrlich Jr. beat Democrat Kathleen Kennedy Townsend to become the first Republican governor since Spiro T. Agnew. How would you rate their respective campaigns? What are your thoughts on the outcome of Morella-Van Hollen race? Does the 2002 election give any insight into state political trends?
University of Maryland-Baltimore County political scientist Donald F. Norris was online to take your questions
and comments on Maryland politics and the outcome of the 2002 elections.
The transcript follows.
Editor's Note: Washingtonpost.com moderators retain editorial control
over Live Online discussions and choose the most relevant questions for guests and hosts; guests and hosts can decline to answer questions.
Alexandria, Va.:
Why did Constance Morella lose this year after decisively fending off so many Democratic challengers for so long?
Donald Norris: Redistricting added a lot of Dems from Prince George's county to her district. Plus Chric Van Hollen is a very substantive state legislator with a solid record who presneted himself well ran a good campaign. This gave democratic voters who normally vote for Morella an easier choice. But, even so, the margin of Van Hollen's victory, while solid, was not overwhelming. I expect it to be in the future in this overwhelmingly Democratic district.
Rockville, Md.:
What effect (if any)do you think Chris Van Hollen will have in the new session of Congress? Do you think that constituents will notice a difference between having Van Hollen in Congress vs. Morella?
Donald Norris: As a freshman Democrat in a Republican Congress, he'll have little policy impact. But Morella didn't seem to have much policy impact either since she was a liberal Republican. Van Hollen's performance will have to be judged on his constituency service and also on how well he represents the views of his constituents, even if, at the end of the day, his views don't prevail due to the partisan make up of congress.
Howard County, Md.:
How could so many people vote for Ehrlich after the Baltimore Sun's (and others) endorsement of Townsend? I feel like Maryland is three big Democratic counties with Alabama in between. Look for a lot of articles on horse racing (and slots) in the papers. I'm happy two Democrats picked up house seats.
Donald Norris: This tells you just how much credence the voters give newspaper endorsements. Endorsements represent the judgements of editorial page writer and pubishers of newspapers, and do not necessarily concide with the views of actual people.
Silver Spring, Md.:
The margins of victory for many Congressional and state senatorial and delegate winners were huge. Is that partly because the state legislature(s) just redistricted the state(s) after the 2000 Census? Do incumbents usually win by bigger margins right after redistricting?
Donald Norris: Yes, this is partly due to redistricting. After each Census, the party in power (in just about every state) tries to tweak district lines to advantage itself and disadvantage the out-party. Studies show, though that this usually adds only marginally to the party's totals in the legislature.
This is because a lot of constituencies are "naturally" lopsided in terms of the preponderance of either Dem or GOP voters. Western Maryland is a good example in the GOP direction. So no matter how the districts are drawn they will mostly elect Republicans. The same is true for large portions of Baltimore City, Prince George's and Montgomery Counties in the Dem direction.
Incumbents, normally have an advantage regardless of redistricting. And how they fare after redistricting depends in part on which voters and how many got redistricted into or out of their districts. See what I said earlier about the Morella loss.
Baltimore, Md.:
With a Republican as the next governor, the Speaker of the House of Delegates apparently defeated, and all of the Senate committee chairpersons not returning, what do you think will happen to Senate President Mike Miller (taking into account as well his troubles involving the redistrictinng process)? Will he sink or swim in the new political atmosphere in Annapolis early next year? Thanks for reading.
Donald Norris: I have heard that Sen. Miller will announce his picks for committee chairs this week. Doing so this soon after an election is almost (actually?) unheard of. It may well gain him several powerful allies in the Senate and perhaps help to ward off any effort to depose him as Senate Presdient.
By the way, don't look for the political atmosphere to be THAT different in Annapolis. The Dems still control both houses of the General Assembly overwhelmingly. And the new governor will have to work with the GA in order to get anything passed.
Washington, D.C.:
How do you think Ehrlich will attack the problem of governing the state with a hostile legislature, and with major budget problems to boot? Also, what sort of role do you see for Mr. Steele?
Donald Norris: This is a question on the minds of many Marylanders. Hw indeed? Don't presume, however, that the GA will be hostile. The GA and the governor have to work together to get anything done. Also, Ehrlich is a product of the GA and is well known by many of its members and also prides himself in being able to work both sides of the isle.
A lot will depend on who Ehrlich brings into state government and whether he governs from the center as he strongly indicated in his speach last night that he'd to.
Finally, the budget will be a real challenge and, many observers are guessing that the size of the deficit will be larger than expected. Ehrlich will have no choice but to cut the budget. Slots, even if approved, won't bring in the amount of money needed soon, if ever. So the issues are where will he cut (which departments and programs), how will he cut (across the board, targeted, etc.), and what process will he use (cooperative with the leaders of the GA, independent, open conflict, etc). What he does in the next couple of years with the budget will tell a lot about his governing methods, style and substance and also will have a lot to do with hie re-elect-ability in 4 years.
The Lt. Gov.'s job essentially is to do what the Gov. permits and asks. It is not clear to me from the campaign what that might be for Mr. Steele.
Greenbelt, Md.:
With no exit polls, can we never say with any accuracy whether KKT's pick of Larson (or Ehrich's pick of Steele) made the difference when it came to African-American turnout? Or even if Ehrlich broke 10 percent of the black vote? Despite the mystery, do you think Steele will be able to build some support through patronage etc. among Maryland African-Americans?
Donald Norris: We can't say for absolute certain, but we can be pretty sure. Here's why: 1) No one votes for Lt. Gov (or Vice President); 2) Although turnout in Baltimore City and PG County ( the 2 biggest black jurisdictions) was down (-2.5% in the city and -7% in PG from 1998, Townsend's actual vote from those jurisdictions was down only about 7,000 votes over 1998. Considering the size of her statewide loss, this is pretty marginal.
She also lost by 51,000 votes in Anne arundel and 56,000 in Baltimore Counties. Turnout ws flat in AA and up 4.5% in Balto. So it wasn't the lack of black votes (though more black votes would have helped) but the overwhelming losses nearly everywhere else in the state that sealed her electoral fate.
For African Americans to change party affiliation, the GOP will have to change its policy positions to match those of African Americans. Right now the two are poles apart on many issues of importance to blacks. The party will also have to be much more open and welcoming of people whose views don't match what appears to many to be the litmus test imposed by the right wing of the party's right wing.
Because of the fundamental differences between most blacks and what the GOP stands for as a party and what its candidstes and adherents profess, I don't think that Steele will be able to make any significant inroads among black voters for the MD GOP.
Washington, D.C.:
I don't understand why Erlich was able to make the Glendening administration into such a pariah. Do you think Townsend's increasing distance from Glendening helped or hurt?
Donald Norris: Regardless of whether one agees with it or not, Governor Glendening was widely perceived in negative terms. Polling data showed that he has had consistehtly high negatives (negative views that people have of him) and that those numbers actually increased during the campaign.
Ehrlich's campaign very skillfully played on this and apparently was able successfully to tie KKT into the administration and to blame her for problems (like the budget deficit) and others that occurred during the last 8 years.
For whatever reasons, Townsend was unable to take credit for the good things that did occur as a result of Glendening's and her administration over the past 8 years and couldn't distance herself from an unpopular governor. Ehrlich's ads basically asking if MD voters wanted to give them 4 more years to get it right were quire effective.
The bottom line, however, is that this is just one of several areas where Townsend as a candidate and her campaign organization simply failed to either a) project a positive image and convince voters why she should be elected and b) effectively counter negative ads coming out of the opposition camp. And those 2 tasks, by the way, are fundamentally important to winning elections.
Waldorf, Md.:
I'm floored that the group that probably cost Townsend the election is white women. How did Erlich manage to capture their votes with his anti-gun control agenda?
Donald Norris: Don't blame it on white women. According to the last poll I saw, she had about a 7 point advantage with white women (Glendening's, if I recall, in 98 was 14 %). The fact is that, no matter how good and decent and honorable, etc., a person she might be, Townsend lost because of a poorly run campaign and because she was unable to personally connect with a majority of the voters. Just look at the figures in BValtimore County -- from dead even in 1998 to a loss by 56,000 votes in 2002. Couldn't have been just white women.
Kensington, Md.:
How do you think Duncan or O'Malley would have done against Ehrlich? Do you think the defeat of Townsend will cause the Democratic Party in Maryland to abandon the divine right of succession in their gubernatorial choices?
Donald Norris: That's a hard one, but I think that another Democrat (not KKT) would have probably won -- providing he could have appealed to the Democratic base and could have gotten independent voters. My guess is that both O'Malley and Duncan could have done that. In any event ti would have been interesting to see (And may be interesting to see in 4 years!)
My analysis suggests that at present and for at least the next 10 years or longer all statewide offices in MD should be won by Dems by at least 52 to 55 % of the vote (with the proviso noted above) just because of the distribution of the vote. However, it will take the right candidate and the right campaign organization to do so.
What divine right? IN 1978, 86 and 94 there were a sprited primary contests. The party obviously made a mistake by falling into line behind Townsend so early and top party leaders made a mistake in working to keep Duncan, Ruppersberger, Curry and O'M out of the race. Maybe there is a lesson there.
washingtonpost.com:
That wraps up today's show. Thanks to everyone who joined the
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