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Election 2002
With Ron Faucheux
Campaigns & Elections Editor-in-chief
Thursday, Oct. 30, 2002; 3:30 p.m. ET

What factor will the economy play on November 5th? Are the frenzy of last minute attack ads working? How does Walter Mondale's entrance into the Minnesota race change things?

Ron Faucheux, editor-in-chief of Campaigns & Elections magazine, was online to discuss the 2002 midterm elections and politics in general.

The transcript follows.

Editor's Note: Washingtonpost.com moderators retain editorial control over Live Online discussions and choose the most relevant questions for guests and hosts; guests and hosts can decline to answer questions.

Richmond, Va.: Larry Sabato always says that last-minute trends are crucial in deciding close elections. I've read that the GOP Senate candidates have surged in Missouri and Georgia. Knowing we're still five days from E-day, what kind of last-minute movements are you seeing in these and other close Senate races?

Ron Faucheux: I agree, last-minute trends can impact close contests. It seems that Talent has done well in the last few weeks in Missouri, we have him favored now. But we still have Cleland favored in Georgia, although Chambliss has closed the gap. You can check out our handicapping on the web at www.campaignline.com, go into The Political Oddsmaker.

Lyme, Conn.: The Second Congressional District in Connecticut has produced exciting races in the past, including ones that went down to just a few votes. This year appears to be another close election. Any insights on this district?

Ron Faucheux: While appears to be fair close, it appears that Simmons is holding up and is slightly favored for re-election.

Rapid City, S.D.: With all of the recent attention to the Mondale-Coleman race, I haven't heard much about New Jersey lately. Do you think Lautenberg will be able to secure this seat for the Democrats? My home state of South Dakota is increasingly looking like a toss-up for Govenor, Representative and Senator! It is all very exciting.

Ron Faucheux: Lautenberg is slightly favored. It seems the Democrats are over the hump there, in terms of dodging any major voter backlash against the Big Switch. South Dakota, for a small state, is producing great elections this year. The Senate race is very, very close, although we now have Thune a slight favorite. The at-lareg House race we have an even bet between Janklow and Herseth.

Washington, D.C.: Ron -- Many of your predictions end with a caveat about Democrats wild card ability to make hay with a large turnout. Of course turnout is impossible to accurately predict, but given that several key Democratic constituencies (such as African-Americans in places like Texas and Florida) should be galvanized come election day, isn't it possible that the democrats have a greater wild-card potential than the GOP?

Ron Faucheux: I think in some places they may, but we don't know where yet. States to watch are Maryland, Georgia, South Carolina, Tennessee, Florida and Alabama -- mostly southern states with heavy black populations. Five of these states have very close governors races and one, Georgia, has a fairly competitive race. also, Illinois, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Indiana. These states have, together, 14-15 close House races that could be affected.

Douglaston, N.Y.: Please let us know the dozen or so House races which are in the play, and the 8 or so Senate seats which are toss ups?

Ron Faucheux: House races: Indiana 2, Maryland 8, Maryland 2, South Dakota at large, New Hampshire 1, Georgia 12, Georgia 3, Arizona 1, New Mexico 2, Colorado 7, Iowa 2, Minnesota 2 -- all tight House races. The top Senate races are SD, MN, MO, AR, CO, NH -- maybe GA, NC, IA, LA, NJ.

Omaha, Neb.: Could you tell me more about the Louisiana Senate race? I'm not sure why the Republicans haven't established a consensus candidate to go after Landrieu. Really, even if they hold her to less than 50 percent of the vote, which Republican would have the best chance of beating her in a runoff?

Ron Faucheux: Terrell seems to be running second at this point. The GOP strategy was based on the state's unique election law. Landrieu was not especially vulnerable, so they are trying to tactically create vulnerability by putting the race into a runoff and then nationalize it. They figured that each Republican candidate would have his/her own base, so they'd have a better than at holding Landrieu under 50% with 3 candidates than with one.

Dupont Circle, Washington, D.C.: What's your opinion on the House races in Nevada? Shelley Berkley seems like a sure win, but the Herrera-Porter race is confusing me. Everyday I read something different about who will win. What do you think?

Ron Faucheux: We have Berkeley favored, and we have Porter slightly favored. It has been confusing.

Alexandria, Va.: Who do you think will be the surprise "horse" in all of these elections?

Ron Faucheux: Possible upsets: Ehrlish could win Maryland governor's race; Coleman could win in Minnesota; Strickland could win in Colorado; Ulmer could win in Alaska; Hirono could wi in Hawaii -- these are some races where candidates who were slight underdogs a few weeks ago have a shot, especially wit Ehrlich.

New York City, N.Y.: What race do you think will be the closest?

Ron Faucheux: Who knows? Politically, anything within one percent is alalytically very, very close. I suspect the Colorado Senate race, and maybe the New Hampshire Senate races will be tight.

Washington, D.C.: Polls in New Hampshire have shown widely divergent results this election year. During the runup to the Republican primary, several polls showed Sununu with a wide lead over Smith, while others showed Smith ahead. Sununu won handily in the end. And polls now show conflicting results about whether Sununu or Shaheen is ahead. What accounts for these differences?

Ron Faucheux: The polls have been very strange in NH this year. Very strange. So it's hard to tell. My guess is that different pollsters are using diferent demographic turnout models that skew the samples. It seems that the race is now very close, although Shaheen seems to have done a little better in the last two weeks.

New York, N.Y.: Which races do you see ending up in litigation?

Ron Faucheux: If Minnesota Senate is close, I thin there will be a court case surrounding handling of absentee ballots. Expect any really close race (i.e. those House races won by less than 500 votes and any statewide race won by less than 2,000 or 3,000 votes) to be a possible legal challenge.

Arlington, Va.: Any chance Moran in Virginia will be toppled, if not this year than in a 2004 Democratic primary?

Ron Faucheux: I think he's OK this year. But I think he's potentially vulnerable at some point to the right Democratic primary challenger.

Washington, D.C: I've seen several people say voters aren't blaming incumbents for the lackluster performance of the economy recently. Do you agree or disagree and why?

Ron Faucheux: They seem to be blaming "ins" in governor's races, but not so much in congressional races. That's the big question mark of the election. Polls show voters see economic troubles tied into Sept. 11 -- so they are not prone to issue blame in a partisan context.

Austin, Minn.: I think the booing at Paul Wellstone's memorial was pretty rude, but how can anyone say the event was too partisan? Wellstone was a guy who didn't separate his political life from his personal life, and unlike guys like Bill Clinton, this was because he truly believed in the causes he fought for, not because he wanted to get more for himself. I didn't always agree with the guy, but because you knew that he wasn't faking his passion, you know he'd approve of the way he was remmebered, and you know he'd view the Democrats winning the election as a fitting tribute. I think this is just a Washington story, based on some flack haranguing a few key journalists, because nobody I've talked to this morning thinks the memorial was excessive.

Ron Faucheux: I'm not sure I agree. I have been surprised at the force of the reaction to the memorial service. The first mistake was asking VP Cheney -- the President of the Senate -- not to attend the funeral of a member of the Senate. That got it off on the wrong footing. I think it may help the GOP neutralize Democratic energy.

Albany, N.Y.: I have been going to your political oddsmaker site for several years now and I have wondered what are your sources of information and what factors go into changing the odds for a particular race. I've noticed that you recently have given a slight edge in the Senate to Talent (Missouri) and Thune (South Dakota) and have changed the New Hampshire prediction from slight edge for the Republicans to even. Are the registration fraud issue (South Dakota), gravitas issue (Carnahan in Mo.) and the Senator Smith factor in New Hampshire the reasons for modifying your predictions in these races?

Ron Faucheux: I look at all of the factors, but the ones you mention are some of the major causes. You can check out todasy's changes, and changes over the next few days at www.campaignline.com, go into The Political Oddsmaker.

Washington, D.C.: When all is said and done, and the races are decided, how do you see the final numbers in the Senate?

Ron Faucheux: Now, today, it looks like Ds end up with 50 or 51 and the Rs 48 or 49. But that could, and probably will, change before Tuesday.

Claremont, N.H.: The association of John Sununu and disgraced CEOs like Dennis Koslowski and Michael Dingman really seems to have cost him in his bid for a Senate seat this year, and may wind up ticking off that slim number of voters who will hand victory to Jeanne Shaheen. Has this issue gained traction elsewhere, or is it only because the local concentration of CEOs involved in corporate scandal that this has an impact in New Hampshire?

Ron Faucheux: I'm not sure I'm ready to pronounce his changes dead yet, but those types of issues can complicate matters if they're allowed to stick.

Harrisburg, Pa.: Walter Mondale was an intelligent and insightful Senator who contributed well to discussions of the issues at hand when he served in the Senate. If Walter Mondale returns to the Senate, isn't he going to find a vastly changed Senate? Has the Senate become more partisan over the past couple decades? Is it more difficult to achieve bipartisan cooperation? To me, I think Walter Mondale may help encourage the Senate to become a more deliberative and respected institution.

Ron Faucheux: Perhaps, but some of it will depend on the partisan line-up. I'm not sure he'll change it much in that regard.

Richmond, Va.: I have to tell you that I'm not especially engaged by the 2002 elections -- and it's largely because there isn't much of an election going on in Virginia. The incumbent Senator is unopposed by the other major party; 6 of the 11 House incumbents are unopposed by the other major party. If you're in one of those 6 districts, what's the point of showing up at the polls? There's little difference between this election and the one for Saddam Hussein earlier this month.

Ron Faucheux: There are some local races and important statewide ballot issues in Virginia to vote on.

Silver Spring, Md.: How are the local papers playing the Wellstone Memorial/Rally? Is it likely to be a big factor?

Ron Faucheux: It's getting a lot of attention. I think it could help the GOP offset any Wellstone sympathy edge.

The Plains, Ohio: I think the barrage of negative ads that have been released in Ohio will backfire on the candidates producing them. This happened last year when the Republicans tried to smear one of the candidates for the Supreme Court. They spent zillions on TV ads that were on between almost every show from the farm report to way after Leno. The Republicans are doing the same thing to a gubernatorial candidate who has 1/9 of their money but is within striking distance.

These messages are as welcome as junk mail or spam in my life. Often, when I have a choice I choose the company who didn't bug me with the "Hooray for me!" message. Political invective makes me very wary of the candidate who airs it.

Ron Faucheux: Attacks work poliitcally if voters see them as fair and honest. But if voters think one side has crossed the line, they can backfire and hurt the attackers.

Washington, D.C.: Where does your analysis differ from the thinking that places the senate 50-50 or 51-49 R-D? What are the one or two contests that people who say the Repubs keep control are misjudging?

Ron Faucheux: The Ds now have 50 seats. If they lose MO and SD, which I think is possible, and the Republicans lose 2 of these 3: Arkansas, New Hampshire, and Colorado -- it stays the same. If the Rs lose only one of those 3 states, the Rs would get teh majority (with Cheney breaking the tie). If the Rs lose all 3, then the Ds pick up one. You always have wild cards looming, though, like GA, IA, MN, NJ and NC -- if there is an upset it would come from one of those.

Washington, D.C.: If Ventura selects an Independent who caucuses with the Republicans, how will that affect the Senate?

Ron Faucheux: Depending on who it is, it could give the GOP a chance to confirm a lot of federal judges.

Georgetown, Washington, D.C.: It seems based on the ratings of each Senate race on your Web site that you think it more likely that the Democrats enjoy a surprise big victory in this election than will the Republicans, that is, it would seem more likely that eight or more Democrats of Shaheen, Johnson, Lautenberg, Mondale, Carnahan, Cleland, Kirk, Harkin, Strickland, Bowles win than eight or more Republicans of Sununu, Thune, Forrester, Coleman, Talent, Chambliss, Cornyn, Ganske, Allard, Dole win. Does this seem right to you?

Ron Faucheux: It's close, with one or two either way, but that's why I'm not saying the chances favor the Ds to keep control.

Richmond, Va.: Is there any evidence of backlash against the President for campaigning and politicking too much? I seem to remember his promising to govern more and engage in politics less. Am I alone in feeling this way?

Ron Faucheux: I think some of the weakening in his poll numbers in the last week or so is the result of that. But his campaign appearances are meant not to get independents and Democrats to vote for Republicans but to get republicans to turn out to vote for Republicans.

Southern Maryland: Maryland in the 2002 election is a mirror of the U.S. in the 2000 election. The Democrats will probably win the cities and inner suburbs, and the Republicans will probably win the rural areas and outer suburbs.

Why has this divide become so stark? I really believe it comes down to perceptions about race. After witnessing an entire generation's worth of white flight from Prince George's, I find it hard to believe otherwise. When I hear local voters talk about Democrats, the issues that come up are all race-related in some way: gun control, affirmative action, crime and welfare. Some honestly believe that the Democrats want to keep blacks on welfare just to retain their loyalty.

Granted, these voters are right when they describe Jesse Jackson and Marion Barry as racial ambulance chasers. But these attitudes are a big reason I have such a distaste for party politics. It's more than just the racial attitudes; it's the politics of fear. I've just about lost hope that gun laws and those other issues can be discussed rationally in Maryland.

Ron Faucheux: Race continues to drive American elections more than many people realize or want to admit. There are also cultural differences, especially between white urban singles and white rural/suburban marrieds, that show up.

Plano, Tex.: Did you purposely leave out Ron Kirk when you listed the states where an upset might come from, or was that an oversight? I saw one recent poll that puts him within the margin of error.

Ron Faucheux: That's a strange election. Despite the fact that Cornyn is a presentable candidate, and the president's home state leand GOP/conservative, Kirk has hung in there amazingly well in the polls. even though I have the race R favored but at serious risk, I still think Cornyn wins -- but you're right, it's close enough to be an upset possibility.

Somewhere, USA: What is life like for you every two years? What will life be like for you after the elections are over? I guess what I am asking is -- what do you and your magazine do for the year or so before the next elections grind up?

Ron Faucheux: It's very busy the last two weeks leading up to the election. I'm doing 15-20 press interviews a day and trying to keep up with 530 elections. After the election, people start planning for races in 2003 and 2004, there's not much of a break and no such thing as an "off" year anymore.

Washington, D.C.: Would you expect Ventura to await the final outcome, even the final outcome of Louisiana, and then make his possibly critical appointment to the Senate contingent on a series of votes that he will have already negotiated?

Ron Faucheux: I'm not sure. If he wants to appoint an I, he probably should do it before the voters elect a D or an R.

Richmond, Va.: What makes you think that Thune is ahead? Is there evidence from polls, or is it just a hunch?

Ron Faucheux: Few incumbents who have polled where Johnson has polled during the last 2 months and survive. I think Thune is a good candidate and SD is one state where Bush can help turnout.

Boston, Mass.: What do you think of the Massachusetts governer race. The debates have been some of the most disgusting I have ever seen. Nothing but personal attacks and interuptions. Romney's 'watch dog of the treasury' ad is one of the most rediculous I have seen where he portraits his opponent as a sleeping old dog laying around while people take money out of a vault behind him. The only person in the debates that sounds like she even cares about the issues is the green canidate, and who is going to vote for her. Is this typical of New England politics? Romney is very daring for someone that hasn't even lived in the state for years.

Ron Faucheux: The race is very close, and could go either way, although the most recent polling gives O'Brien a slight lead. I'm trying to be careful not to say anything "unbecoming" of either candidate! (to get this inside reference, check out today's Boston Herald and Globe)

New Ulm, Minn.: Were you doing what you do during the 1990 midterm elections? Do you remember how pollsters called the Wellstone-Boschwitz race? Did anyone predict a Wellstone win prior to election night?

Ron Faucheux: No I was not doing this in 1990, I was still a political consultant.

Somewhere, USA: Follow-up. How did you get started? I am an election junkie and would love to end up in a position similar to yours.

Ron Faucheux: OK, you asked for it -- here's a quick bio below. I started in politics as a campaign volunteer. I was press secretary for a winning gubernatorial race when I was 20 and a campaign manager for a winning congressional race when I was 21. The rest is, as they say, history -- or at least mine!

Ron Faucheux is a political analyst, lawyer, editor and former member of the Louisiana House of Representatives and state Secretary of Commerce.

Since 1993, he's served as editor-in-chief of Campaigns & Elections magazine and Campaign Insider, a weekly newsletter, both nonpartisan trade publications for the political community on the strategies, techniques and trends of political campaigning. He's written numerous articles on campaigning and trained thousands of candidates for federal, state and local office across the globe.

Dr. Faucheux holds a BSFS degree from Georgetown University’s School of Foreign Service, a Juris Doctor degree from the Louisiana State University Law Center and a Ph. D. in political science from the University of New Orleans.

He teaches courses in Campaign Management and Running for Office at The Graduate School of Political Management, George Washington University in Washington, D.C. He's directed several landmark survey research projects for The Pew Charitable Trusts and the University of Maryland on political candidates, elections and campaign debates. He also founded the Government Leadership Institute in 1991 and has conducted numerous training programs for public officials.

As a media commentator, he writes a nationwide political column and appears regularly on national television news and talk shows. He's appeared on CNN, NBC, ABC, Fox News, MSNBC, CNBC and the News Hour with Jim Lehrer. During the 2002 election, he served as regular on-camera political analyst for CNN’s “Moneyline” with Lou Dobbs.

As senior analyst for The Political Oddsmaker, an online elections handicapping service available at www.campaignline.com, he’s correctly called winners in 98 percent of over 1,600 elections since 1995.

As a political consultant, Ron Faucheux handled 116 campaigns in 11 states between the late 1970s and the early 1990s.

He’s the author of Running for Office: The Strategies, Techniques and Messages Modern Political Candidates Need to Win Elections, published by M. Evans and Company.

Washington, D.C.: Have you seen any really good political ads lately?

Ron Faucheux: Yes. Some of the best ads aren't flashy or cute or funny. Just solid on message and candidate presentaton. I do think two ads in the Ehrlich campaign for governor of Maryland have been outstanding. One features his LG candidate, an African American, and the other an African American woman police officer. The Ds tried to paint Ehrlicsh as an extreme right winger and these ads have done well blunting those attacks.

Alexandria, Va.: Are the news organization's Voter Service bugs worked out?

Ron Faucheux: Hopefully so.

Kansas City, Mo.: I curious about Jeb in Florida. In 2000 the Gore/Nader vote was 51-52 percent. And the Post and others said Gore was hurt the most among the uncounted votes.

With the election reforms instituted it seems more than a majority of those votes would be Democrats. So unless Gore/Nader voters cross the lines, it seems like Jeb needs to pick up a couple percent points to win. Or is he relying on a low turnout?

Ron Faucheux: Hard to say. The race is still close, although Bush seems to have opened up a slightly larger lead the last week. D turnout is the big question, that could be McBride's ace in the hole.

Arlington, Va.: Where will voter turnout effect the winners the most? I am wondering where I should be praying for snow and where I should be praying for sunny, clear 75 degree weather.

Ron Faucheux: I'm not sure weather will mean that much. I think turnout will be a big factor where there are large numbers of black voters and union voters, to see if the Ds can run up their totals.

Alexandria, Va.: Thanks for answering questions. Where will you be getting your information on Tuesday night?

Ron Faucheux: Everywhere I can find it.

Arlington, Va.: How long will election "night" be? Do you think we will be in another 30 day fiasco before we know who actually won the Senate or House?

Ron Faucheux: I suspect it could go on for a while.If one or two Senate races are really close, it could make it a long night.

Topeka, Kan.: Has Libby Dole's carpetbagger status hurt her at all in this election? It's getting so you can't figure out where politicians are from anymore.

Ron Faucheux: It's hurt some, but her opponent has lived out of state, too, for a long time. That race appears to be tightening, although Dole still has a lead.

Ron Faucheux: Thanks very much. Hope everyone votes on Tuesday!

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