|
Election 2002:
Election Day
With Tucker Carlson
CNN "Crossfire" Co-host
Tuesday, Nov. 5, 2002; 3 p.m. ET
When all is said and done who will have control of the Senate? Will the Republicans be able to keep their hold on the House? How is voter turnout and how will it affect the outcome?
CNN "Crossfire" co-host Tucker Carlson was online to take questions and comments on the
2002 midterm elections, the news on election day and politics in general.
In addition to his work on "Crossfire" Carlson has provided analysis for CNN's Inside Politics, writes for New York Magazine and is a contributing editor for The Weekly. Carlson's writing has also appeared in The Wall Street Journal, George, The New Republic, Forbes FYI, Slate and The Washington Post.
The transcript follows.
Editor's Note: Washingtonpost.com moderators retain editorial control
over Live Online discussions and choose the most relevant questions for guests and hosts; guests and hosts can decline to answer questions.
Sioux Falls, S.D.:
Hi Tucker. I have watched your show quite a bit and liked it. Who do you predict will take the South Dakota Senate race, Johnson or Thune? I suppose there is an increased importance on every election with the alignment of Democrats/Republicans.
Tucker Carlson: I predict Thune. On the other hand, I sincerely thought Phil Gramm was going to be president in 1996. So I'm probably wrong.
Harrisburg, Pa.:
Let's discuss one of the smallest political minorities there is: bow tie wearers. Former Senator Paul Simon used to state how difficult it was to always be taken seriously when addressing crowds while wearing a bow tie. How do you find people react to a speaker wearing a bow tie?
Tucker Carlson: If you can be taken seriously while wearing a bow tie, you must be an awfully serious person. That's my theory.
Springfield, Va.:
My upset picks of the night are Chambliss over Cleland and Kirk to win in Texas. If Kirk does win, then look for a Kerry/Kirk ticket for the dems on 04. Should I bet the mortgage on this?
Tucker Carlson: I'm not sure about betting your mortage -- refinancing is as far as I'd go -- but I think you're on to something. Sen. Edwards will be deflated within the next six months, at which point Kerry will be the obvious choice for Democrats, I think. Kirk would be a smart pick for him.
Toronto, Canada:
Forget the predictions about the Senate and House, how many lawsuits will be commenced in the next few days?
Tucker Carlson: Many.
Georgetown, Washington, D.C.:
Do you think rainy weather in the South East will have an affect on voter turnout, and if so who will it favor -- the Democrats or Republicans?
Tucker Carlson: The conventional belief is that rain hurts Democrats. I'm always amazed by the fact Democrats admit this. What does that say about Democratic voters?
Washington, D.C.:
Tucker:
First, I just wanted to let you know that I dressed up as a very convincing Tucker Carlson for Halloween.
So let's assume the Democrats barely hold the Senate and the Republicans pick up seats in the House. Given President Bush's celestial approval ratings and his party's advantage in national security, do you think the Democrats would consider the election a victory? Or do you think the Dems squandered their chance to leverage social security and the anemic economy for electoral gain so badly that such an outcome would be a veritable defeat?
Tucker Carlson: That outcome would be a defeat for Democrats, no question. Bush would be the only president in decades to gain house seats in a first midterm. And I do think Democrats squandered their chances. They would have made far more progress taking a stand against Iraq and the tax cut. But they were too afraid.
Arlington, Va.:
Tucker -- you live in Northern Virginia, right? Do you support the transportation tax increase?
Tucker Carlson: Actually, I didn't check either box. I didn't know enough to cast an informed vote, so I didn't.
Washington, D.C.:
Tucker,
First off I plan to be glued to your show tonight as the returns come in. Second...
I read in an article today that discussed how hard it's becoming for pollsters to get accurate data about voters by telephone, since people now have caller I.D., call intercept, etc. What form do you think polling will take in the future to try and circumvent the technological methods people are now using to help maintain their privacy?
Tucker Carlson: I saw a pollster friend of mine at lunch last week, who went on about the potential of cyber polling. Before I could get details on how, exactly, that would work, he left. So I'm not sure. But every pollster I know is complaining about caller ID, so they'll have to think of something.
Bow, N.H.:
What time today does the media learn the exit poll preliminary results? What are the rules about hinting at the results on air?
Tucker Carlson: I'm at CNN Center in Atlanta and we still haven't heard. Apparently there's something wrong with VNS. Frustrating.
Silver Spring, Md.:
Which senate seats are Democrats most likely to pick up?
Tucker Carlson: Colorado and Arkansas.
Deerfield, Mass.:
Would Mondale's election re-energize the Democratic Party or would it serve to stifle progress and change?
Tucker Carlson: Are you serious?
Lyme, Conn.:
Is there still room in the Republican Party for people such as Lincoln Chafee? Are we beginning to see the desertion, along with Jim Jeffords, of New England Republicans from the national Republican Party?
Tucker Carlson: The problem with an evenly split Senate is that it gives a disproportionate amount of power to people like Chaffee and Jeffords, men who (and you already know this if you have ever carefully watched them) wouldn't have a lot of power otherwise.
La Jolla, Calif.:
Is it necessarily politically advantageous for Bush in 2004 to have the Republicans regain control in the Senate? Would it place too much burden on the administration to get their proposals passed? Would the passage of a number of controversial proposals, such as a permanent tax cut, new energy policy, and pension protection, hurt the administration in 2004?
Tucker Carlson: No, control of the Senate is not necessarily a good thing for the Bush Administration. It's not clear that 51 GOP senators can accomplish a lot more than 49 (except on judicial nominations). And the good thing about having 49 is you can blame the other side's 51 for impeding progress.
Capitol Hill, Washington, D.C.:
With the potential lack of exit polls this evening, what races will you be watching for early clues as to how the evening will pan out for the major parties?
Tucker Carlson: Watch Georgia. I predict Cleland will lose by a significant margin, five points or more.
Seabrook, Md.:
There has been a lot of talk about Ms. Dole coming out of the box strong, but weakening in the latter stages. Do you think this is true, and why?
Tucker Carlson: I hope she wins, but I've always thought she would lose. Ande I still think she will.
Washington, D.C.:
Tucker. Doesn't depressed voter turnout among Democrats on rainy days suggest the obvious? That the Democrats draw legitimate support from poorer citizens who may not be able to take the Lexus for a spin and instead rely on buses? Please think before you speak.
Tucker Carlson: You obviously don't live in a poor neighborhood in a contested state, where churches and Democratic get-out-the-vote operatives shuttle to the polls anyone who wants a ride .
Kent, Ohio:
What do you think of Jim Traficant's chances? Will he be the spoiler?
Tucker Carlson: The question is, will they vote for him now that they know it's wig? I don't know. I hope so. He's a great Crossfire guest, the drunkest we've ever had.
Palo Alto, Calif.:
Tucker, you appear to be much more reasonable on the web than during Crossfire. Why is that? I actually find myself agreeing with you on some of these points. Believe me, on Election Day, this scares me. My real question is, if the Republicans retain the House and take the Senate, which side of the party will dominate the debate over the next two years -- the reactionary right, or the moderate middle? Seems like an agenda that is too far to the right might endanger Bush's re-election bid. Will this factor in?
Tucker Carlson: Don't listen to Carville: Bush is fundamentally a moderate. He has governed like one from the first day. He has trianglulated against Tom Delay since the 2000 campaign. And he'll continue to act like a moderate.
As a right-wing ideologue, I'm saddened by this. But it's true.
Orange, Va.:
So what's the Republican spin on the likely loss of their majority hold on the governorships? Surely, if the nation was turning Republican as so many of those on the right like to contend, they'd be able to win more, not less races for the governor's mansions.
Tucker Carlson: Good question. I don't know. Though I always thought the line about how governors are the future of the party was absurd. Most of the governors I've met seem sort of mediocre, nowhere near as impressive as the average congressman.
Takoma Park, Md.:
Care to handicap the Townsend-Ehrlich and Morella-Van Hollen races in Maryland?
Tucker Carlson: Erlich wins, and so does Van Hollen. In other words, justice will be done.
Keep in mind, I live in Alexandria, so I'm probably wrong.
Mechanicsburg, Pa.:
"The problem with an evenly split Senate is that it gives a disproportionate amount of power to people like Chaffee and Jeffords, men who...wouldn't have a lot of power otherwise".
Like many of your opinions, Mr. Carlson, that's hilarious. Chaffee and Jeffords have both worked long and hard for their constituents -- and true power is (or should be) derived from the very people they serve. Chaffee and Jeffords managed to be in the right place at the right time, power-wise, but they earned what power they have.
Compare their records and careers to George W. Bush and tell me who deserves to hold a position of power more. For one thing, these men were elected -- repeatedly -- and not installed.
Tucker Carlson: Are you serious? Chaffee essentially inherited his seat (he was first appointed, not elected), has been in the senate for about 20 minutes, and has accomplished basically nothing while there.
Before he switched parties, Jeffords was best known for pushing milk subsidies.
Washington, D.C.:
Why do you say Edwards will be deflated in the next six months? Do you consider him to be the current #1?
Tucker Carlson: He'll be deflated because, charming as he is, he's too light for the age.
And, yes, he is the absolute favorite among the Democratic strategists I know.
Washington, D.C.:
What do you think will happen in the Minnesota U.S. Senate race?
Tucker Carlson: If I knew, I'd be on the tube right now saying so.
Speaking of, I've got to go. Thanks a lot for having me.
washingtonpost.com:
That wraps up today's show. Thanks to everyone who joined the
discussion.
Stay tuned to Live Online:
Election
2002: The Post's Robert G. Kaiser at 9 p.m. ET
Election
2002: Post Metro Columnist Marc Fisher at 9 p.m. ET
Did you know that you can follow more than one Live Online discussion at
the same time? Just open another browser window and toggle back and
forth between discussions! And, if you miss one, catch up with the Live
Online transcripts.
Keep up with the latest in news, sports, politics and entertainment with
washingtonpost.com
e-mail newsletters.
Personalize your Post with mywashingtonpost.com.
Get customized news, traffic, weather and more.
| |
© Copyright 2002 The Washington Post Company | 
