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The New Hampshire Primary
With Bob Benenson
Congressional Quarterly
Tuesday, Sept. 10, 2002; Noon ET
Tuesday is one of the biggest primary nights of the 2002 Election. Will the much anticipated race between Janet Reno and Jeb Bush materialize in Florida? Will two-term Senate incumbent Robert Smith be affected by his brief departure from the Republican Party?
Primaries will be held in Arizona, Connecticut, Florida, Maryland, Minnesota, New Hampshire, New York, Rhode Island, Vermont, Wisconsin, while Georgia faces a runoff.
Congressional Quarterly managing editor for politics Bob Benenson, along with other CQ reporters, was online to discuss Tuesday's races to watch and how the 2002 election is shaping up.
The transcript follows.
Editor's Note: Washingtonpost.com moderators retain editorial control
over Live Online discussions and choose the most relevant questions for guests and hosts; guests and hosts can decline to answer questions.
Washington, D.C.:
What are your predictions in Florida? Does Reno really have a chance? What does the Florida Democratic party want?
Congressional Quarterly: Jonathan Allen: It appears to be a tossup going into the final hours, with Tampa lawyer Bill McBride carrying all the momentum. But former U.S. attorney general Janet Reno may have an advantage in turning out core Democrats, at least that's what her supporters would like to see happen. The Florida Democratic Party is officially neutral, but certainly McBride's surge is owed in large part to the belief among many Democrats that Reno would have a hard time beating Gov. Jeb Bush.
Annandale, Va.:
How successful can or should primary candidates be in selling themselves as the candidate best able to beat an incumbent form the other party in the gneral election? I am thinking specifically about the Democratic primaries for Florida governor and the Maryland 8th District.
Congressional Quarterly: Jonathan Allen: I think that the argument of which candidate would be better in a general election can carry a lot of weight in a primary -- if it is made well -- as it is often an important question for the party faithful. Clearly, it is a factor that many voters consider when they go to the polls in primaries. At a debate in Maryland's 8th District, at a large retirement community, candidates were asked just that question by an attendee.
Virginia:
If you had to call it now, who do you think will control the House and Senate in 2003?
Congressional Quarterly: That's the $64,000 question for sure! The short answer is we don't know yet. Winning the House is doable for Democrats, but it will be difficult. Democrats need a net gain of six seats to overcome the Republican House majority, and they'll probably need to unseat some tough incumbents -- such as Connie Morella, whose Democratic opponent in Maryland's 8th District will be known tonight -- if they are to take back the House. The challenge for Democrats is that redistricting has made many incumbents safer, and there isn't much evidence now that many of them are highly vulnerable or that there is a big wave of support helping the Democrats. But eight weeks is an eternity in politics, and a lot can happen.
The race for control of the Senate is too close to call. Each party has its share of vulnerable seats. Republicans will have to work hard to defend seats in New Hampshire, where John Sununu could unseat Republican incumbent Bob Smith in a primary, and in Arkansas and Colorado. Democrats have vulnerable incumbents in Minnesota, Missouri, South Dakota and New Jersey. The challenge for Republicans is that they need to win all four of their "open" seats and defeat at least one Democratic incumbent in order to win Senate control. But the Senate is too close to call now.
Washington, D.C.:
In what ways will the winning candidates' campaigns be affected by the surely overwhelming coverage of the 9/11 anniversary? Won't they lack the usual kickoff/victory party of primary winners?
Congressional Quarterly: Bob Benenson: Just a note -- the response to the previous question about the outlook for House and Senate control was written by Greg Giroux.
I'm sure every potential winner in the 12 states plus the District of Columbia that are holding primary contests has known and expected that their victory celebrations -- and publicity about their wins -- would be muted by the sad coincidence of the Sept. 11 anniversary. Especially when primaries are held this late, any lost day is a hindrance to the candidates' campaigns, but it is just a fact of life under the circumstances.
This factor added another element of interest to former HUD Secretary Andrew Cuomo's decision to end his campaign for the Democratic gubernatorial nomination in New York. For his opponent, state Comptroller Carl McCall, the material benefits of Cuomo's dropout were small, as the two already had engaged in a months-long, expensive campaign and polls showed McCall was going to win anyway. But not having to wait until Sept. 10 to declare victory -- and the fact that Cuomo's withdrawal had all the trappings of a post-primary "unity" rally -- at least gave McCall an extra week to make his case against Republican Gov. George Pataki before the inevitable 9/11 hiatus.
It seems equally inevitable that the campaigns will quickly move back into full swing shortly after the day of mourning has passed.
Richmond, Va.:
The conventional wisdom in the New Hampshire Senate race seems to be that if Rep. Sununu wins tonight he'll be slightly favored to beat Gov. Shaheen in November, but if Sen. Smith hangs on the GOP nod, Shaheen will be the clear favorite. Do you agree?
Congressional Quarterly: Greg Giroux: Regardless of today's primary results, we will likely keep the New Hampshire Senate race in the category of "no clear favorite." Shaheen would not be the clear favorite against Smith. The surveys I've seen have Shaheen running a bit behind Sununu and a bit ahead of Smith. Not a dramatic difference, but holding the NH seat is critical to the GOP effort to win back the Senate. But there is a lingering impression that Sununu is the more electable candidate.
In response to Bethesda's question about whether there are issues in this race... This is not one of those conservative-vs.-moderate where the candidates have sharp disagreements on hot button issues like abortion, gun control, taxes, etc. Both candidates are reliably conservative -- Smith and Sununu have very high ratings from the right-of-center groups. Sununu has accused Smith of reversing his earlier support of drilling in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge. Smith has questioned Sununu's commitment to curbing illegal immigration, going so far in a weekend ad to suggest that Sununu has voted to allow suspected terrorists to enter the U.S. So this race seems to hinge more on electability than ideology.
Silver Spring, Md.:
Connie Morella didn't face primary opposition but could be in a tough race in November. She is often described as being an independent Republican. What has been her voting record vis-a-vis Bush administration policies? How often has she voted for or against her party? Has she made any statements regarding global warming? Thanks!
Congressional Quarterly: Jonathan Allen: Generally speaking, Rep. Morella has been the Republican most likely to vote with Democrats during her tenure in Congress, including in 2001, when she voted with Democrats on 39 percent of "party unity" votes, those on which the majority of the members of one party voted in opposition to the majority of the members of the other party. In one year, 1989, she voted with Republicans on "party unity" votes just 19 percent of the time. As for President Bush, she supported his stated position on legislation 53 percent of the time in 2001. I regret that I'm not aware of Rep. Morella's position on global warming.
Washington, Va.:
Do either of the Kennedys have a chance in Maryland -- Townsend for Governor or Mark Shriver for the Morella seat in Montgomery County?
Congressional Quarterly: Jonathan Allen: Both of the members of the Kennedy family have a chance in Maryland, though state Rep. Mark Shriver could lose his opportunity if he fails to secure the Democratic nomination. All indications are that it is a close race for the right to take on Rep. Connie Morella. Though Rep. Bob Ehrlich seems to have closed the gap in the polls, Lt. Gov. Kathleen Kennedy Townsend is still the favorite in her gubernatorial bid.
Maryland, 8th district:
Do you think if its decided tonight, that Mark Shiver has a chance? Connie has always beaten the challenger no matter who it is.
Congressional Quarterly: Jonathan Allen: Like any of the three top Democratic contenders in Maryland's 8th District, Shriver has a chance to beat Morella. CQ currently ranks the general election race as having "No Clear Favorite," which will not change in the immediate aftermath of the primary. An already Democratic-leaning district was made more Democratic in redistricting. But, as you point out, Rep. Morella has always beaten her foes, and some say she was caught by surprise in 2000, when she won by just 6.5 percentage points. As expected all along, the 8th is shaping up as one of the toughest battlegrounds in the nation. Shriver is probably best positioned among the Democrats to quickly reload his campaign coffers in the expensive Washington media market, though any of the top Democrats would be expected to get lots of help for the general election. Without a primary opponent, Morella has been able to stockpile cash and is poised to spend more than she has ever spent before.
Pittsburgh, Pa.:
Do you beleive that Giordano will do damage to Pataki?
Congressional Quarterly: Jonathan Allen: I'm not sure, but I think you may mean Tom Golisano, the wealthy businessman who is trying to secure the Independence and Conservative party nominations in New York. If nominated by one of those parties, Golisano could be a nightmare for Gov. Pataki. The governor has a double-digit lead in the polls over Comptroller H. Carl McCall, and a third-party candidate who can draw hundreds of thousands of votes, as Golisano has done in the past, could cut into that advantage. Golisano had spent $23 million by late August.
Minneapolis, Minn.:
Lately, the feeling here is that the Wellstone/Coleman Senate race is not quite as close as people think, and that Sen. Wellstone is leading. That said, I wonder how you think a candidate's strong grass-roots organization (like Wellstone)truly helps in the general election. For example, will the Wellstone campaign also help Democrat Roger Moe win the governor's race here? Will Robert Reich's enthusiastic volunteers help put him over the top? Does organization matter anymore?
Congressional Quarterly: Adam Graham-Silverman: Organization certainly matters. Challengers, who are almost always outspent, usually can credit their victories to a good ground game. Wellstone is an expert, using expensive direct-mail fund-raising techniques to simulataneously get cash and build that grass-roots army. His huge number of donors is a great indication of his statewide organization and a key reason CQ has always seen the race leaning Wellstone's way. Wellstone does have a bit of momentum right now as the economic climate plays to his populist message and Coleman's campaign has struggled to respond. But Coleman will strike back -- and a potential vote on war with Iraq would put Wellstone in a difficult position.
Democrats in Minnesota report that early surveys show a significant number of Wellstone voters support independent gubernatorial candidate Tim Penny, however, which shows that organization often extends only as far as the candidate, not the party.
Washington:
What about House races in the South? There are tight races with Northrup/Conway in Kentucky, Whitfield/Alexander in Kentucky, Joe Turnham in an open seat in Alabama, Lincoln Davis in Tennessee, Rodney Alexander in Louisiana, Shows/Pickering in Mississippi, Thurman in Florida, Ross in Arkansas. What are the latest trends in those races that could affect control of the house? Thank you.
Congressional Quarterly: Each race is decided within each district, and, at this point, there does not seem to be one trend or issue that has really taken hold across the region.
Austin, Tex.:
What's your prediction in the Massachusetts Democratic primary, and also in the North Carolina Democratic Senate race?
Congressional Quarterly: Mary Clare Jalonick and Jonathan Allen: In the N.C. Senate race, Elizabeth Dole will win the Republican primary and Erskine Bowles will likely win the Dem nod. Former House Majority Leader Dan Blue has run a strong Democratic primary campaign, and some think he has a chance to pull an upset over Bowles. The race has potential to be close -- there are nine Democratic primary candidates and there is no runoff. Dole is favored to win the nomination in November, but the race will likely tighten in the next month or so.
JA: I think Shannon O'Brien is still the favorite in Massachusetts for the Democratic nod. But with four relatively well-known candidates, that could change.
Sioux Falls, S.D.:
National eyes have been watching the South Dakota Senate race as it may affect the balance of power in the Senate. How has the race been evolving and how do you handicap it?
Congressional Quarterly: Mary Clare Jalonick: I don't know if anyone can handicap that race -- every poll shows them one or two points apart, the leader depending on who commissioned the poll. Johnson has been running some very good ads showing everything he has done for the state, while Thune has been capitalizing on his support from Bush. I think it will be competitive down to Election Day. One thing that is interesting about South Dakota is the overwhelming interest that people in the state have in the election -- the two were mobbed like rock stars when they showed up at a Sioux Falls television station for their recent debate.
Diamond Bar, Calif.:
Being so close to the action, do you find it difficult to stay neutral and objective? You must get inundated with information from the various campaigns.
Congressional Quarterly: Bob Benenson: We really don't find it difficult, because neutrality and objectivity is a fundamental principle of our employer, Congressional Quarterly. They are qualities that our readers rely on, and we try to keep the faith with them at all times.
I've been a reporter and editor for CQ for nearly 21 years, and am in my fifth year as Politics Editor. I'm proud to say that -- while we on occasion have been questions about whether we got some facts correct -- my staff and I have never been excused of projecting a partisan or ideological bias.
You are quite correct that we are inundated with highly subjective information from individual campaigns and political party organizations. But it is our job to filter that for accuracy, add information obtained from independent, non-partisan sources, and employ our knowledge of a state's or district's electoral history, demographics, etc., in drawing the conclusions about contests that we then transmit to our readers.
I'm sure that all of us read or hear things from campaigns that make us raise our eyebrows or conflict with our personal views of reality, but I'm hopeful that we do a successful job of sublimating that and providing our readers with a wholly balanced picture.
Congressional Quarterly: Bob Benenson: Signing off for now. Thanks to all of you who participated and sent in your excellent questions. I hope you will follow the results of tonight's primaries and the rest of the campaign on washingtonpost.com's OnPolitics site, to which Congressional Quarterly is a news contributor.
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