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Election 2002:
State of the Races
With Chuck Babington
Washington Post Congressional Editor
Wednesday, Oct. 2, 2002; 1 p.m. EDT
Who will control the House and Senate after the November 5th midterm election? How has the issue of Iraq shifted the election debate? What races are the ones to watch and can any serve as a barometer of America's political leanings?
Chuck Babington, Washington Post Congressional editor, was online to discuss Congress, the 2002 election and politics in general.
The transcript follows.
Editor's Note: Washingtonpost.com moderators retain editorial control
over Live Online discussions and choose the most relevant questions for guests and hosts; guests and hosts can decline to answer questions.
Alexandria, Va.:
A lot of people think that the Democrats are trying to skirt around election law up in New Jersey. Will Republicans be able to nationalize this stunt in other close Senate races?
Chuck Babington: Republicans may have trouble getting serious traction in other states by criticizing the Democrats' bid in N.J. to replace Torricelli on the ballot. But if the GOP picks up the NJ Senate seat (while holding all its current seats) and thereby takes control of the Senate, I think a lot of Republicans, hey, that's good enough.
Youngstown, Ohio:
I find the situation in New Jersey fascinating, but the whole problem would never have occurred if the state's Democrats had concluded earlier that Senator Torricelli's ethical issues made him unworthy of representing the state for another term. Why are party leaders so willing to put a tainted candidate on the ballot, even one who stands (or at least stood) a decent chance of winning. Where were the party's principles months ago?
Chuck Babington: Torricelli got off the ticket not because Democratic officials finally decided he had ethical problems. He got off because his poll numbers were sinking and he was convinced he couldn't win. In fairness, though, Democrats aren't alone in allowing incumbents with ethics problems to seek reelection.
Arlington, Va.:
Toricelli is an idiot, and he could very well end up costing the Democrats the Senate even though he claims he's trying to avoid that. Some have suggested that if the Republicans. win control of the senate by a vote or there's another 50-50 split that one or more of the liberal Republicans will switch parties. I think it would be more difficult for them than it was for Jeffords, and I suspect that Zell Miller would be a turncoat Dem and switch over himself. What do you think is the likelihood of more party switching in the Senate?
Chuck Babington: Party switchers are a rare breed. There has been lots and lots of talk about Zell Miller switching to the GOP, but he hasn't done it. I was surprised by Jeffords' switch last year, and I'd be surprised if there are other switches next year.
Perry, Ga.:
What is the Democrat's rationale for bypassing the New Jersey legal requirements? I heard that a New Jersey party leader said that if Sen. Toricelli resigned now, the election could be postponed until Nov 2003. How is this?
Chuck Babington: 1. The Democrats argue that the public's right to a bona fide choice in a Senate race outweighs the state law that says it's too late to put a new nominee on the ballot. We'll see if the courts buy that argument.
2. If Sen. Torricelli resigned from his seat now, the governor -- a Democrat -- could name a replacement. Presumably, Democrats then would try to get that person's name on the ballot for the Nov. 5 elections. It's not clear to me how a Senate vacancy and replacement could result in postponing this fall's election
Centreville, Va.:
Will McDermott be in trouble at the polls for going to Baghdad over the weekend? I know that Bonior is leaving the House.
Chuck Babington: Rep. Jim McDermott, a Democrat from the Seattle area, has won reeleciton easily since first being elected in 1988. I don't know how the 2001 redistricting process changed his district, but I don't think the Democrats or Republicans feel he has endangered himself by making the trip to Iraq.
Annapolis, Md.:
Thanks for taking my question.
Can you tell us five close House and five close Senate races? Knowing this would make the approaching election much more interesting.
Thanks.
Chuck Babington: Sure. On the Senate side:
1. NJ. As you see from the comments thus far, it's suddenly a fascinating and confusing affair. This once was seen as a safe Democratic seat. But Torricelli's ethics problems -- and stunning announcement Monday that he's not running for reelection -- give Republican Doug Forrester an excellent chance to win it on Nov. 5.
2. South Dakota. Sen. Tim Johnson (D) is fighting for his life against the GOP challenger, Rep. John Thune. Sen. Tom Daschle is campaigning hard for Johnson, and President Bush is lending big help to Thune.
3. Minn. Sen. Paul Wellstone (D) is being pushed hard by Republican Norm Coleman, former mayor of St. Paul.
4. Missouri. This is an unusual race because the incumbent -- Sen. Jean Carnahan -- has never been elected, whereas her challenger has won several elections. Carnahan was named to the seat in 2000 after her husband was posthumously elected (he died in a plane crash shortly before the election). The GOP nominee, Jim Talent, spent several terms in the House.
5. Arkansas. This may be the Democrats' best chance to pick up a seat. Sen. Tim Hutchinson (R) faces a stiff challenge from state AG Mark Pryor (whose dad was a U.S. senator).
As for the House:
There are three dozen close races. Since you live in Maryland, you should pay attention to two in your state. In both cases, Republicans are trying hard to keep the seats. In Md. 8, long-term Rep. Connie Morella (R) faces a strong challenge from state Sen. Christopher Van Hollen (D). In Md. 2, the seat is empty because Rep. Bob Ehrlich (R) is running for governor. The GOP nominee is Helen D. Bentley, who held the seat before trying for governor in 1994. The Dem is Dutch Ruppersberger, the Balt. County executive. Both races are very close.
Alexandria, Va.:
After watching the New Jersey Supreme Court arguments, it appears that they are leaning towards allowing Lautenberg on the ballot. What are his chances against Forrester?
Chuck Babington: It depends on how NJ's voters react to the Democrats' maneuvers to get Lautenberg on the ticket. If the process doesn't bother them, and they see the election as a simple choice between Lautenberg and Forrester, then Lautenberg should win. This is a Democratic state, and Lautenberg is more in line with the majority of voters on key issues.
However, if voters feel that the Democrats played unfairly -- which is what the Republicans are insisting, loudly -- the voters may view the election as a question of fairness and integrity. In that case, a Forrester win is very possible indeed.
Washington, D.C.:
Torricelli aside, what are your thoughts on the other races that will determine control of the Senate in '03?
Chuck Babington: It's anyone's guess who will control the Senate, and I think that statement will be true at 5 p.m. on Nov. 5. That said, the Democrats are defending more toss-up seats (SD, Minn, NJ, Mo.) than are the Republicans (Ark. and maybe NH and Colorado are their main worries). I think the Democrats are very nervous now, and Repubicans are encouraged.
Washington, D.C.:
Economy vs. Iraq -- which is the more salient issue in most races this term?
Chuck Babington: So far, voters don't seem greatly motivated by economic issues, though Democrats hope that will change. Today's Post has a good story on this subject on page A4.
Annandale, Va.:
One gap that I have noticed in the Toricelli coverage is what would happen if his name stays on the ballot and he wins (presumably because the Democratic Party sells the voters on the idea that a vote for Toricelli is a vote for Lautenburg). Do you know?
Chuck Babington: If Torricelli's name stays on the ballot and he is elected, then he has the right to remain as senator if he chooses. I suppose he could make a pledge to step aside and let the governor appoint someone else. I fine the scenario highly unlikely.
washingtonpost.com:
Economy a Concern, Not an Issue (Washington Post, Oct. 2, 2002)
Philadelphia, Pa.:
To what extent do the growing numbers of Hispanics in the U.S. remain unregistered and unmobilized? How does the rate of Hispanic registration compare with that of other ethnic groups? And do you foresee Hispanics weighing in this November and making their voices heard in a big way?
Chuck Babington: I don't have Hispanic registration figures at my fingertips. I do know, however, that both parties are battling hard for Hispanic voters in many states, and Hispanic voters could easily determine the outcome of some hotly contested House seats in Arizona, Nevada and elsewhere.
Burke, Va.:
I think that antiwar feeling will have more of an effect in the elections than many people have written about. The proposed Iraq war has energized the people who are against it -- they are very against it, and the people who are for it are ambivalent.
Chuck Babington: Perhaps you are right. Right or wrong, you get the last word because our hour is up. Thanks for participating in the chat.
washingtonpost.com:
That wraps up today's show. Thanks to everyone who joined the
discussion.
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