Marc Fisher

• Campaign 2002: D.C. Elections • Campaign 2002: Maryland Elections • Potomac Confidential • Potomac Confidential Live archive • About Marc Fisher • E-mail Marc • Talk: Potomac Confidential message boards • Live Online Transcripts • Subscribe to washingtonpost.com e-mail newsletters • mywashingtonpost. com -- customized news, traffic, weather and more

Potomac Confidential: 2002 Elections Special
With Marc Fisher
Post Metro Columnist
Tuesday, Nov. 5, 2002; 9 p.m. ET

Tonight's election returns will say as much about the future of the Washington region as any in many years. In Virginia, the vote on the sales tax referendum will determine how and where the region grows, how and where we live, and where employers choose to locate. In Maryland, longstanding assumptions about which party controls the state are up for grabs in both the governor's race and the contest in the 8th Congressional District. In the District, voters have their first chance in years to push for an expansion of home rule -- a referendum on whether to create an elected District Attorney.

Metro columnist Marc Fisher was online for a special election edition of Potomac Confidential to talk about the early returns and your thoughts on what they mean for our future on Tuesday, Nov. 5 at 9 p.m. ET.

The transcript follows.

Editor's Note: Washingtonpost.com moderators retain editorial control over Live Online discussions and choose the most relevant questions for guests and hosts; guests and hosts can decline to answer questions.

Marc Fisher: Good evening, citizens. It's going to be a long, long night, but already we have the makings of some upsets and some fascinating results to chew over in our hour together.
The northern Virginia sales tax increase for roads and transit appears to be toast. Which either means that people really don't mind the congestion on the roads, or that they simply didn't believe that these projects would significantly ease their daily journeys.
Still in Virginia, Rep. Jim Moran coasts to another easy victory despite his ethical problems.
In Maryland, we have only sketchy numbers so far but it looks to be a very interesting night in the governor's race.
In the District, Mayor Williams is already clearly headed for a second term, by a 2-1 margin with more than half the vote in.
How do you see it? Comments, questions?

Somewhere, USA: Hi Marc, do you think the Virginia tax referendum will pass?

Marc Fisher: Looks like it's going down in a pretty big way, losing by wide margins in Loudoun and Prince William counties (these are all early and incomplete numbers, so consider all this tentative), and running about even between Yes and No in Alexandria. No Fairfax numbers yet.
Interestingly, the statewide parks and higher education bond questions are winning handily, showing that this is not a raw anti-spending attitude on the part of voters, but is a targeted and firm No to this method of solving transportation problems.

Pittsburgh, Pa.: Do you feel that this year's election coverage is biased depending on which channel's coverage you are watching? If so which channels are less biased or more biased?

Marc Fisher: On a night like this, when returns are going to come in slowly and late, there will be the temptation to go into sniper coverage mode, with boatloads of speculation. But the TV folks are chastened by their performance in the 2000 presidential election, and they'll be trying their best to keep it factual and cautious. The only place I'd expect to see much bias is on Fox, which tends to lard its guest lineup with hard conservatives.

Jonathan, Philadelphia, Pa.: How much credit do you give some of the numbers we have when in most cases not even 25 percent of precincts are reporting? I'm thinking specifically of Maryland and Virginia.

Also, I am hearing on the radio that 2/3 of D.C. precincts have reported and Williams is winning, but I can't find anything on the web. Any ideas why?

Marc Fisher: There's a bit of a lag between when we get raw numbers from the elections boards and when they get up on the website, but it's a pretty quick process.
I wouldn't draw strong conclusions from 25 percent of a tally unless you know where those votes are coming from. Early returns can be wildly misleading. For example, Chris Van Hollen is leading Connie Morella by 76-24 percent right now, but that's because the only precincts reporting are a handful from the Prince George's side of the district. So those are not meaningful numbers because they represent a place where he's expected to win overwhelmingly.
The D.C. numbers are much firmer now, because they represent most of the city's vote.

Alexandria, Va.: Scandal-ridden Alexandria congressman James Moran has in recent years always won by at least 60 percent of the vote.

If Moran wins but by less than 60 percent tonight might that persuade a local Democrat to oppose Moran in a primary in 2004?

Also, who are the people who gave Moran's campaign a million dollars? Are they the same groups who were caught making unusual personal loans to Moran?

Marc Fisher: Moran is trouncing Scott Tate and it looks like the incumbent will win with well more than 60 percent. So, does another Democrat challenge him next time? Probably, but there's no clear sign that northern Virginia voters are holding Moran's ethical lapses against him.

Chevy Chase, Md.: What are your feelings toward the District 8 House race? This summer, you wrote rather bitingly of candidate and Maryland State Senator Christopher Van Hollen, Jr. Against great odds, specifically the Kennedy name and money, Chris won out in the primary. Since September 11, Chris and Maryland incumbant Connie Morella have been neck and neck. What are your predictions for tonight?

Marc Fisher: I've thought all along that Van Hollen would win, if only because of the redistricting, which added a chunk of Prince George's county to Morella's district--voters who neither know her nor are inclined to vote Republican.
Van Hollen is a very capable and attractive candidate, and he deserves enormous credit for not going negative against Morella at any point. I did write a column that was quite supportive of Morella, but I had nothing negative to say about Van Hollen, who is extremely knowledgeable and matches the district's politics almost exactly.

Colorado Springs, Colo.: Hi Marc:

As a former resident of Montgomery County I was disappointed that my son's high school here in Colorado does not have an election day "vote." I always thought it was interesting that his schools in Maryland did a straw vote -- good for training purposes, if nothing else.

At any rate, it will be so interesting to see who wins in Maryland and Colorado as both states, among others have close races.

Have fun!

Marc Fisher: My sense is that schools do far too little around elections--my kids reported tonight that there was no discussion whatsoever of elections in school this week, and that's a lost opportunity at any grade level. But I've seen some schools do very imaginative mock elections, with kids playing candidates and so on. It makes a real difference in how involved those kids get in the world around them.

Forestville, Md.: Marc:

Who pays the most for going negative? KKT for race baiting and sheer nastiness, or Ehrlich for tying KKT to Glendening and setting the government on the Maryland Juvenile "Justice" system? Including the commercials by groups with "no ties to any candidate".

Marc Fisher: We'll see later tonight who pays the heavier price, but my sense from talking to voters is that people seemed to blame Townsend more for being relentlessly negative and for running very few ads that gave any positive reasons to vote for her. Whereas Ehrlich in the final days presented some very effective testimonial ads from a Montgomery soccer mom and a Prince George's policewoman--even if you didn't agree with them, they were a refreshing change from the nonstop accusations of the Townsend spots.

Kensington, Md.: No question. Just wanted to let you know I really enjoy your columns and your take on issues.

Marc Fisher: You're very kind. Thanks for tuning in.

Meadville, Pa.: In general do you think that election signs that plaster the cities are too much of an eye sore? Do they serve their purpose?

Marc Fisher: Hard to say. Standing outside my polling place this morning, I heard quite a few voters asking the campaign volunteers out on the sidewalk whom to vote for in the lesser races on the ballot. It seemed like a number of people were basing those decisions as much on whose name they'd heard of as on anything else.
I like seeing the blizzard of signs around--it speaks to me of a vibrant democracy. But then it's up to the candidates to get those things out of here pronto, starting tomorrow.

Santa Rosa, Calif.: Why is the media completely silent on the fact that Bush, who claims to be a unifier and one who can work in a bipartisan way, is so willing to "go it alone," even with Congress? The U.S. Senate has blocked some legislation, perhaps because it is not yet right. No vote on legislation that does not show compromise is a good vote. All this talk about gridlock is nonsense.

Marc Fisher: That's not quite right. Bush has backed off on a number of issues when he's seen that they would not make headway in Congress. The homeland security department proposal, for example, was quietly scuttled. And we've had pretty solid gridlock in Congress of late, with little prospect of that being eased by tonight's results.

Charlottesville, Va.: Marc -- care to comment on today's decision by Voter News Service (VNS) not to conduct their exit-poll operations because of "computer problems?" They've had two years since the 2000 debacle to rewrite and test their software, but they didn't decide until the afternoon of Election Day that it's not working well enough. Is this hampering the Post's ability to project results?

Marc Fisher: Yes, it's going to have a significant impact on news coverage of the elections. We'll get the results through official channels, so the numbers will be there, if somewhat later than in the past. But the lack of exit polls makes analysis of the votes very difficult, because we don't have the breakdowns by sex, race, age, income and so on that are often at the heart of explaining a vote.
VNS isn't saying--or at least hadn't in the last reports I read--exactly what the computer problems are, but they apparently saw this coming and flagged news organizations to the problem yesterday.
In the end, it's far better that they hold back if they think their numbers are not top quality. The last thing anyone wants is a further erosion in the credibility of election reporting.

Marc Fisher: Some new results coming in show a very tight race between Connie Morella and Chris Van Hollen, but Van Hollen is up 51-48 with about two-thirds of precincts reporting.

Northern Virginia: Do we know what precincts those are? I would imagine knowing the counties whose numbers are in dramatically changes how informative your Morella-Van Hollen numbers are.

Marc Fisher: Most of those precincts are now Montgomery precincts.111 of the 168 precincts in Montgomery are in, as well as 7 of the 10 in Pr. George's.

Myrtle Beach, S.C.: What are the chances of Ehrlich pulling it out? I have no idea what area of the state has already reported which makes it slightly difficult to judge. What do you think?

Marc Fisher: It's looking like anyone's ballgame right now, but the Ehrlich people sound more confident than the Townsend folks. But that's reading tea leaves at this point. Townsend is up 55-45 at the moment, but that's with numbers coming in from Baltimore City and Prince George's, her two strongest locales, while Baltimore County, Ehrlich's stronghold, has not reported a single vote.

Happy in Virginia: This just in: N.Va. Tax Hike Defeated

Marc Fisher: Ok, I share your happiness, but when we wake up in the morning, the legitimate and proper question will be, What now? Any ideas?

Blacksburg, Va.: Marc,

Isn't a bit presumptious to conclude that the tax referendum was defeated only because people don't find their commutes to be terrible or didn't think the projects involved would help?

Wouldn't it seem more likely that serious concerns about the financing (and opposition expressed by Virginia's two past governors) helped bring the 'no' vote to the forefront?

Marc Fisher: No, I think doubts about the financing are a part of the notion that this proposal would not do the trick--that is, that either the projects would not provide sufficient relief from congestion to make the tax worth levying, or that the tax money would not be spent properly. Either way, it's a clear expression of no confidence in the proposal and its proponents.

Bethesda, Md.: Question B on the Montgomery County ballot was for a charter amendment that would make it easier for the county to withhold documents and conduct County Council business in non-public sessions. This came in somewhat under the radar, though the Post's editorial over the weekend recommended a "no" vote.

Any results on this?

Marc Fisher: Alas, the Post editorial was too little, too late, and this question appears headed for an easy victory (if by a somewhat smaller margin than the other ballot questions.) As a result, the public will find it harder to get the basic information we all need to keep government accountable and to prevent the kind of petty corruption that flourishes in secrecy.
Similarly in the District, a dangerous proposal to decriminalize many offenses committed by drug addicts threatens to roll back the progress made in recent years toward safer streets. That initiative, called Measure 62, is winning by a wide margin.

Herndon, Va.: Why didn't the Democrats put up a candidate to oppose John Warner? They obviously think it's a lost cause, but why? The state elected a Democratic governor, after all.

Marc Fisher: Sadly, the Virginia Democrats are still in something of a freefall, despite Mark Warner's victory. He had little in the way of coattails in his election, and there's little sign of any Democratic revival since then. There are all too many races all around the country in which candidates are running virtually unopposed, which does not spell a healthy future for democracy.

Bethesda, Md.: How has the turnout in Maryland been? Conventional wisdom seems to be that high turnout will benefit the Democrats, low turnout the Republicans. Do you agree with that?

Marc Fisher: That's the traditional equation. It's too early to get a good sense of turnout, but anecdotally, there was much talk today of a pretty strong turnout, perhaps above 60 percent.
My very rough comparison of the turnout in the Maryland governor's race vs the '94 Glendening-Sauerbrey vote shows this vote running a bit ahead in total votes. But again, it's hard to extrapolate from the current vote, which is about one-third of the precincts.

Bethesda, Md.: How do you feel the Post has any claim to being unbiased when it doesn't ever support Republicans for statewide offices?

Marc Fisher: I don't speak for or have anything to do with the folks over on the editorial board of the Post, but just glancing at today's list of endorsements, I see quite a few Rs. Indeed, in Virginia, the paper endorsed almost entirely Republicans, and in a number of key races in Maryland as well--Morella, Gilchrest, Audrey Scott in Prince George's.

Relieved in Arlington, Va. : Thank goodness the tax referendum didn't pass. Now I just hope we can come up with something to improve public transportation systems and contain sprawl.

Marc Fisher: That will be a tall order, given the chortling and derision that will come our way from Richmond. But both sides in this campaign said that the money for rail to Dulles would exist regardless of the outcome, so there's hope there.

Alexandria, Va.: Not a question, but a comment. I was startled at how little a billion dollars will buy. With all of the money the new sales tax was going to leverage (several billion using bonds and federal matching dollars), the proposed projects wouldn't do much to change my daily travel habits. I voted no.

Marc Fisher: You're far from alone in reaching that conclusion. A billion here, a billion there, and you're still sitting in traffic. Not a very appealing prospect.

Faifax, Va.: I agree the tax vote was a vote of no confidence. The Governor's budget crisis did nothing to assure me that the money would be responsibly spent once the state got its hands on it.

Marc Fisher: Good point--to the governor, this was the one chance he saw of getting something done despite the state's fiscal crisis. But to many voters, the deep cuts that Warner must now make statewide were an indication that this sales tax money might not make it to its intended destination, despite the governor's assurances.

Washington, D.C.: I'm a reverse commuter who lives in NW D.C. and works in Tysons Corner. I didnt make it to the polls in D.C. because of total gridlock in Northern Virginia resulting from rain. Not that the Northern Virginia tax would have solved this problem, but it is ironic that traffic is now so bad that a heavy rain, not even snow, is all it takes to bring us to a standstill.

Marc Fisher: Sorry you missed your shot at voting, and it is indeed frustrating to see how even a bit of rain paralyzes this area. I'm not sure that has to do with road capacity so much as the general timidity of many drivers around here--even a few snowflakes create gridlock.

Gaithersburg, Md.: I agree with your answer to "Happy in virginia" -- what is next. While we don't want to pay more for roads, maybe because we do not trust how the money will be ultimately used, it is important to keep our eye on the problem and come up with some solution.

I was particularly unimpressed with any of the candidates so called answers to any questions on road congestion in Maryland, and having grown up in this area and watching first the Beltway and then 270 become virtual parking lots, I am not convinced that the ICC will be any better in the long run, or even the short run.

Why is it that mass transit is not used more and thought of as a real alternative?

Thanks

Marc Fisher: Transit is a real alternative inside the Beltway, but the system we have is a 1970s vision of how this area would develop. The next great challenge for the area is to extend that vision to how people live now. In Maryland, that means prompt decisions on the Purple Line route and on light rail.

Washington, D.C.: If the Washington Ballot Proposal for a district attorney wins, what does that mean? Do we get one? Or does it carry nothing more than the weight of a begging recommendation to Congress?

Marc Fisher: Alas, the District Attorney proposal, which I am happy to report is winning by a huge margin, is only advisory. The council must approve the measure, and then we're at the mercy of Congress, which is not a good place to be if you're Washington D.C.
Contrast that with this frightening drug measure that passed tonight; that becomes law without any further approvals. Scary.

Washingtonian in New Jersey: Hi Mark:

Thanks for hosting the special edition tonight. Love your column and online forum. I am a resident of Arlington but currently in N.J. on business. Voted on Saturday (in-person absentee) and want to reiterate the previous comments about the sorry state of democracy when the Dems in Virginia can't even come up with a viable candidate to oppose Warner. Furthermore, I think that the debacle of the 2000 election resulted in more disillusioned Americans who truly think that their votes don't count. It's a shame. Thoughts?

Marc Fisher: Sad to say, you're probably right. Though the number of close elections around the country may bring some extra people out to the polls.
It should be the minimum obligation of any party to put candidates on the ballot, even against a popular guy like John Warner. The whole idea is to have a debate and a choice; otherwise, that ballot starts to look awfully Soviet.

College Park, Md.: CNN is reporting that KKT's campaign is "very concerned" about the higher number of votes cast as they "did not come from her strongholds." MSNBC is saying that the Maryland race may be a "surprise" now.

Marc Fisher: We're all doing what we feel comfortable with in hinting at an Ehrlich victory. The TV folks tend to be a bit more brazen about this sort of thing than those of us who have to commit our words to print. But certainly a look at the early numbers would not make a Townsend supporter too happy.

Arlington, Va.: What's the deal with Nancy Spannaus? Who is she? I heard she has scary ties with Lyndon LaRouche.

Marc Fisher: You got it. She's a LaRouchie of the first order. They're a certifiable bunch, but they keep running and, to the great pleasure of WTOP and other stations that get their ads, they pay their bills.

Bethesda, Md.: Clearly, the point was lost on you. The Post doesn't endorse STATEWIDE Republicans in Maryland -- ever. I haven't seen it happen in my lifetime. They pick a race here or there, but never back a statewide Republican candidate. Isn't that wildly ridiculous bias?

Marc Fisher: I can't vouch for all of Maryland history, but in a state that has been utterly dominated by one party for many decades, that's not too surprising.

Silver Spring, Md.: Question B was worded in such a way that it would appear that a "yes" vote favored more openness, not less. I guess that just shows that the proponents were more interested in winning than in framing the issue clearly for the voters. Surprise!

Marc Fisher: Always be wary of the wording on ballot initiatives. The proponents get to write them, and they are often less than fully honest.

La Plata, Md.: What do you think Ehrlichs chances are in southern Maryland? I'm thinking Charles will be a loss for him but Calvert and St. Marys will be pick ups. Also, how big or small will southern MD role be in the election?

Marc Fisher: Ehrlich is winning overwhelmingly in St. Mary's and Calvert. No Charles numbers are in yet.

Marc Fisher: I'm afraid we're out of time, but I'll be back Thursday at noon, after the dust has settled and we can thrash through all this then. Thanks very much for staying up with me. Excelsior!

washinngtonpost.com:

That wraps up today's show. Thanks to everyone who joined the discussion.

You can keep the discussing going with Post Associate Editor Robert Kaiser

Automatically Update Page    |   Get New Responses   |   Submit Question