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Talking Points Live
With Terry Neal
Washingtonpost.com Chief Political Correspondent
Friday, Oct. 18, 2002; 1 p.m. EDT
How will the $3.8 billion Election Reform Bill passed by the Senate actually improve the nation's voting procedures? Will Democrat Bill McBride be able to upset the Florida governor's race -- not to mention the President -- and defeat incumbent Jeb Bush? How have the recent sniper attacks changed the political landscape in and around Washington, D.C.?
Washingtonpost.com Chief Political Correspondent Terry Neal was online to take your questions and comments on these issues and other political news from the past week.
The transcript follows.
Editor's Note: Washingtonpost.com moderators retain editorial control
over Live Online discussions and choose the most relevant questions for guests and hosts; guests and hosts can decline to answer questions.
Washington, D.C.:
So what do you think about McCain on Saturday Night Live? Do you think it is a hint that he plans to run again in 2004? washingtonpost.com:
McCain's New Platform (Washington Post, Oct. 18, 2002)
Terry Neal: I seriously doubt McCain plans to run in 2004. And he's already said he'll be too old to do so in 2008. I think McCain just likes the spotlight. And, to his credit, he understands that maintaining his popularity is a crucial part of accomplishing his political goals.
Albany, N.Y.:
Based on what has been disseminated to the public about the investigation of the sniper shootings it appears there is a significant lack of coordination between the two states and the local jurisdictions involved. Why hasn't the FBI taken over and why has the President of the Attorney General exercised any leadership to coordinate the investigation? I can't imagine what it would be like to be living in the D.C. Metropolitan area right now. Wouldn't it be appropriate for the President to act; to make a statement calming fears? At the very least he should have some involvement as he is a resident of the area that has been the target of these attacks.
Terry Neal: I've seen the reports about lack of coordination, and I'm not surprised. If you know anything about this region, it's made up of two states and the District of Columbia. Each of the MD and VA counties where the this vile murderer has killed someone has its own police department. The investigation is supposedly being led by Charles Moose, the police chief of Montgomery County, where the first and most shootings have happened. Not only is federal law enforcement involved, but the Pentagon as well. As to why the FBI hasn't taken over, I can only guess that part of it has to do with the fact that as scary an unprecedented as this thing is, it's still a regional law enforcement issue. The president has made some comments, but has not--as far as I know--issued any formal statement. This isn't my story, so I don't know this to be a fact, but I assume the White House may have concluded that presidential attention is the last thing this psychopath needs.
Harrisburg, Pa.:
Do you believe the American public has a firm understanding of the tensions in the Middle East and the possible reactions of the international community, especially other nations with large Islamic populations, should we go to war in Iraq? Do you think most people have memories of the previous war and thus believe this will be another relative easy war to win? If this turns out to be a costly war, do you think American support of military actions will remain firm?
Terry Neal: Yes, I believe they do. I think what people disagree on is to what extent the reactions of the international community matter. Some conservatives, in particular, believe that the United States, by the virtue of being the world's lone superpower and economic leader, should lead and others will follow. These same voters are the most likely to be unconcerned about cries from Europe and elsewhere about American unilateralism. When you talk about "The last war," I'm not sure which one you're talking about. People of my generation (I'm 35) have no real recollection of Vietnam. But they know about the Gulf War, the conflicts in the Balkans, the war in Afghanistan. But I think most people understand a war in Iraq would probably be more costly and difficult than any of those conflicts. The real debate in this county about whether those risks and costs are worth what we might accomplish.
Washington, D.C.:
Terry -- Where can one locate the revised electoral vote counts to be used in the 2004 and 2008 presidential elections? On the surface, it would appear the pickup of statehouses in Michigan, Illinois, Pennsylvania would be substantial for Democratic presidential hopes, but if I recall each of those states lost electoral votes, while Florida and North Carolina picked up votes.
Terry Neal: Here's one place:
http://www.census.gov/population/cen2000/tab01.txt
So for a state's number of electoral votes, add 2 (for the number of senators) to the reapportioned House numbers.
Washington, D.C.:
I'm watching the Maryland governor's race. I'm NOT watching the polls. Can you tell me -- can anyone tell me -- that these polls are accurate after Campaign 2000? Are you media guys, like, interviewing enough people? Seriously: just as surely as Florida's got to clean up their voter system, you guys got to have more accurate polls, don't you?
Terry Neal: The polls are a guide. That's all. But unfortunately, they're the best guide we have. Interviewing helps clarify the often muddied picture that polls provide and are essential too. Also, some polls are better than others. But I don't agree with those who would say they're worthless. In fact, polls are right more often than they are wrong. Just take them for what they're worth, that's all.
Laurel, Md.:
Are there any races anywhere in the country in which the Republican is considered more liberal than the Democrat?
Terry Neal: Not that I can think of off the top of my head. There are a number of races, like the one right there in your home state, MD's 8th Congressional District--where Rep. Connie Morella is pretty close to her opponent, state Sen. Christopher Van Hollen--where the candidates are pretty close on the issues. But I can't think of one where the Republican is considered more liberal. This is not to say that there are some instances, but I just can't think of them off the top of my head.
Bethesda, Md.:
I hear the race for MD governor is neck and neck. What's your take on the reason why? Democrats outnumber Repulicians 2-1 here.
Terry Neal: My take is that, number one, like many states, Maryland is facing a huge budget deficit and the economy is on shaky ground. The Democrat, Lt. Gov. Kathleen Kennedy Townsend, has been a part of Gov. Parris Glendening's administration for eight years. So she's viewed virtually as an incumbent. As I mention in my column today on washingtonpost.com, incumbents of both parties are paying for the economic decline. On a more micro level, I believe KKT made a series of stumbles earlier this year, including a picking little-known, Republican-turned-Democrat running mate who generated almost no enthusiams in her party's bases of power.
Detroit, Mich.:
Do you think that there could be any Senate switches after the election, regardless of which party is in control? If so, who could those be? Chaffee? McCain?
Terry Neal: McCain has vowed to never switch. But that rumor never dies. One of the senator's political advisers, John Weaver, switched from R to D last year and is now advising Democratic congressional candidates. But I expect McCain to stay where he is. There is a lot of scuttlebutt in Washington about RI Sen. Lincoln Chaffee switching parties if Republicans pick up a net gain of one in the Nov. 5 elections. That would allow Dems to keep their majority. Given Chaffee's propensity to vote with the D's--just Vermont Sen. Jeffords did--makes him a more person to switch. But I'm skeptical about that one too. We'll see.
Arlington, Va.:
Any buzz on where Hill staff members are congregating to watch Electon Night results? Are any local sportsbars going to tune their Jumbotrons to C-SPAN? Do Rs go to one bar and Ds to another? Any chance of fistfights or rumbles breaking out?
Terry Neal: Oh, this is hilarious. We've got someone out there trynig to organize his/her social calender! To be honest, I don't know. I'm going to be in the office, hammering out update stories for washingtonpost.com, so I haven't even thought about where folks are congregating. I doubt you'll see any fisticuffs breaking out at the Hawk 'N Dove. The Hill crowd really isn't the brawling type.
Baltimore, Md.:
Mr. Neal: Yesterday, Timothy Belden, Enron's chief energy trader in the West and a corporate vice president plead guilty to a federal conspiracy charge for rigging California's electricity markets during the power crisis, giving the state powerful ammunition in its claim for $9 billion in refunds from energy companies.
My question for you: (1) Why is the (inside the beltway) political press not being more aggressive on this story when it is clear that that the administration (V.P. Cheaney) conspired with Enron to formulate U.S. energy policy.
Frontline (on PBS) is the only place I've seen real journalist connect the dots. Please don't run from this story.
washingtonpost.com:
Enron Trader Pleads Guilty (Washington Post, Oct. 18, 2002)
Terry Neal: Well, number one, there's a story about the plea on the business front of the Post today. Second, I think the Post and the media in general have been quite aggressive reporting on the links between Cheney and energy companies, including Enron. However, that's a judgment call on your part when you say, "It's clear that the administration conspired with Enron..." Saying that as a private citizen, and proving that in news stories are quite different things. In any case, I'm certain more will come out on this and topics like it in coming months.
Vienna, Va.:
It used to be that Republicans won a lot of elections based on racial "wedge issues:" "quotas," busing, Willie Horton-style crime, etc. Now that seems to have faded away. Why? After all, Republican candidates still receive very few black votes.
Terry Neal: Yes, this is true. There's a story in the New Republic, I believe, this month on that very topic: The death of the racial wedge issue. I personally believe that race continues to be one of the most powerful forces shaping American politics, but it's far less overt these days. In any case, I believe R's still receive very few votes because blacks still see the party as hostile their interests. Simple as that. And black people, like all people, vote based on what they perceive to be best for themselves.
Arlington, Va.:
When voters elected Chafee they knew they were voting for a Republican, albeit a liberal one. Isn't it a bit unfair to switch parties without giving the voters a chance to vote again?
Terry Neal: No, I don't believe it's unfair. If voters don't like it, they can take it out on the candidate in the next election. I believe that the slavish devotion to political party over all else is one of the biggest problems in American politics today, anyway.
Annapolis, Md.:
Thanks for taking my questions.
1. How nonpartison was the election reform bill's passage?
2. I thought that the constitution mandated that elections were a ward of the states. How is it that the federal government is now involved?
Thanks. washingtonpost.com:
Election Reform Bill Is Passed by Senate (Washington Post, Oct. 17, 2002)
Terry Neal: I believe it was bipartisan. Republicans, who are seeking to expand their support among minorities, could not be seen as opposing this piece of legislation. So they got on board, but made sure to put their stamp on it by insisting on various fraud provisions that have not pleased some liberal groups. As for the second part of your question, I'm no constitutional scholar, but I know it also requires that elections be fair and not discriminate or disenfranchise any group of people. Thus the feds have a constitutional responsibility in this area.
Albuquerque, N.M.:
How do you (and the other politican reporters) stay in contact and keep up-to-date with the pulse in the rest of the country (i.e. New Mexico, Arizona, Idaho)? Do you read local papers on-line, rely on stringers, or otherwise get info from the RNC or the DNC?
Terry Neal: A combination of all of the above. The Internet, I must say, has led an information explosion that makes our jobs so much easier. I can now find virtually anything or anyone I wanted in a manner of seconds without the help of information experts news organizations have longed employed to handle things as mundane as helping reporters find phone numbers for obscure organizations, or pull clips from small market newspapers and the like. It's really amazing.
Washington, D.C.:
Is it any wonder why blacks still think Republicans are hostile to their interests when white Democrats like Parris Glendening and Katherine Kennedy Townsend repeatedly play the race card? Or when a supposedly nonpartisan group like the NAACP produces TV ads that link George W. Bush with the dragging death of Mr. Byrd in Texas?
Terry Neal: With all due respect, I think it's somewhat offensive to suggest that black people have simply been duped by Democrats such as Glendening and Townsend. As I said before, most black people, just like most whites, are smart enough to take an inventory of the issues they care about and vote based on how they believe a candidate addresses those issues. Anywhere from 10-15 percent of black consider themselves conservatives or Republicans, and their political perspectives or no less or more valid than the majority of blacks who vote for Democrats.
Richmond, Va.:
So, what's your prediction on the Senate. It seems to me that the Democrats are in trouble, with S. Dakota and Missouri is looking especially tenuous.
Terry Neal: I don't have a clue! There's just too many close races...It's true what you say about Democratic incumbents being in trouble in S.D. and Mo., but on the other hand, two Republican incumbents, Tim Hutchinson in Ark. and Wayne Allard in Colo., are also in "tenuous" positions. So I'm not sure. I wouldn't be surprised if when it's all done and counted, we could have the same 50-49-1 split.
Dupont Circle, Washington, D.C.:
I love predictions. So, as Chief Political Correspondent for the Post, give us some! Will Ds or Rs control the House and Senate after the November elections? Any good upsets in your opinion? Townsend v Ehrlich? Thanks!
Terry Neal: Well, I just gave you my prediction on the Senate. I wouldn't be surprised if the R's picked up a few seats in the House. And, as I wrote in my column today, I think Dems will have a net gain in governors. OK, here's my best chances for big upsets, and they're both in gubernatorial races: Democrat Kathleen Kennedy Townsend loses Maryland to Republican Bob Ehrlich. Florida Gov. Jeb Bush loses Florida to Democrat Bill McBride. Before the hate mail comes in, this are not necessarily my wishes, but my best prediction for major upsets!
Arlington, Va.:
Yes, but the next election for Chaffee (and Jeffords) is several years away, so the voters are stuck with a turncoat. Isn't it more honorable to do like Phil Gramm did when he abandoned the Democratic Party? He called for and won an immediate special election as a Republican.
Terry Neal: That's your opinion. And that's what's so great about America, not only can we all have them, but we can express them on washingtonpost.com's Live Online!
Bethesda, Md.:
Terry,
Katherine Kennedy Townsend and Ehrlich only had one debate, which most Marylanders couldn't see. Are attack ads the future now? It seems we see attack/issue ads more then the actual canidate.
Terry Neal: Well, both candidates are running attack ads now: Kennedy Townsend is running gun-control ads against Erhlich, and he's running budget-defict ads against her. I don't cover this race on a day to day basis, so I can't say I know what's coming, (campaigns don't typically tips their hats on this kind of campaign strategy to reporters, anyway), but I wouldn't be surprised if it gets uglier by election day.
Outside the Beltway:
You truly believe that most voters take a careful inventory of the issues before they vote? I think you are too "inside-the-beltway." Why do you think politicians -- and groups like the NAACP -- spend so much money on negative TV ads? Because that's where most people form their initial impressions of candidates. Only a small minority of folks outside of political hotbeds like D.C. have time to really study the candidates and the issues.
Terry Neal: As to the first part of your question, please see my previous answer about opinions.
As to the last part, I didn't say people have a lot of time to study candidates. But people certainly have a general idea of what both major parties stand for. It's an insult to the intelligence of voters around the country to suggest you have to be "inside-the-beltway" to know generally what both parties represent and believes in. most 6th graders can tell you that.
Boston, Mass.:
To really impress us, can you predict/speculate on a Senate or Governor's race result that will have us say, "Wow, how did he get that one right?" My nominee might be Dem Governor in Kansas (Sebelius).
Terry Neal: I'm not really sure I understand this question. But if you're asking me to pick a winner in a race that no one else is predicting, it wouldn't be Kansas. The Democratic candidate is up double digits in the polls in that race!
Terry Neal: OK folks. My time is up. I'm sorry I didn't get to every question. But I think I got most. Your questions were very perceptive and I enjoyed answering them. Take care and we'll chat soon. Terry
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