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Talking Points Live
With Terry Neal
Washingtonpost.com Chief Political Correspondent
Friday, Oct. 11, 2002; 1 p.m. EDT
How will the House and Senate votes to grant President Bush the power to attack Iraq and take out Saddam Hussein effect the November election? What can be expected from the new Supreme Court term? Will Bush's use of the Taft-Hartley Act to reopen West Coast ports hurt his standing with labor unions?
Washingtonpost.com Chief Political Correspondent Terry Neal will be online to take your questions and comments on these issues and other political news from the past week.
The transcript follows.
Editor's Note: Washingtonpost.com moderators retain editorial control
over Live Online discussions and choose the most relevant questions for guests and hosts; guests and hosts can decline to answer questions.
Terry Neal: Hello everyone. I'm looking forward to our chat, so let's get started!
Charlottesville, Va.:
Why do you think Connie Morella voted against the Iraq resolution yesterday?
Terry Neal: Well, the first thing we might assume is that she voted here heart and that's what she really believes. But of course, there could be a political reason as well. Morella represents Maryland's 8th Congressional District, which primarily comprises Montgomery County, a generally liberal to moderate suburb of Washington DC. She's in the fight for her political career against a Democrat named Chris Van Hollen. And a vote in favor of the resolution might have hurt her in such a close race.
Pawcatuck, Conn.:
With the country so evenly divided, I find President Bush losing ground in so many areas. Places like Nevada, with his Yucca Mountain decision, and Florida where his performance in the economy will be felt the most, and in states where labor is important with this most recient decision in California. Where is Bush taking up the slack?
Terry Neal: The prresident remains very popular. While his approval ratings have fluctuated, they've yet to dip below 60 percent in most polls since 9/11. Much of that likely has to do with the fact that the vast majority of voters approve of his performance in handling the war on terrorism, which has dominated everything in the last year.
Laurel, Md.:
How much voter interest is there in this election?
How can both houses of Congress be very much in play and no one care because there doesn't seem to be much difference between the parties?
Terry Neal: Voter participation in mid-term elections has been declinging for decades and there are few people who expect that trend to reverse on Nov. 5. There are many, many theories for why this is happening. I believe that part of it is the disconnect many voters feel from Washington. Yet it's a chicken and egg sort of thing. As voter participation has declined, the ideological extremes have increased their pull on both parties, further alienating those in the middle. With self-described moderate now making up the largest percentage of voters (compared to conservatives and liberals), I think many people just are finding much to be inspired about in today's national politics.
Georgetown, Washington, D.C.:
A question for the star reporter: When do you think the U.S. will actually deploy troops to Iraq?
Terry Neal: Star reporter? Nah, not me. I'm just a humble kid from the Midwest (Kansas City to be exact) who grew up and got his dream job covering politics!
Somewhere, USA:
Are the Democrats relieved that the Iraq vote is over so they can focus on "their" issues? Do you believe voters will really want to focus on social security when the very real possibility of war looms large on the political landscape?
Terry Neal: I'm sorry...I hit the return button before I finished answering that last question. I don't know when or even if troops will be deployed to Iraq. There are so many questions and issues that need to be resolved before that decision is made. The president has reassured Congress and the American people that he will exhaust every diplomatic avenue first. So we'll see...Now for this question: Yes, the Dems are happy to get past this vote. They are hoping to quickly return the debate to issues of health care and the economy. I wrote a column yesterday for washingtonpost.com talking about the Dems effort to gain the political advantgae on Social Security, among other things.
Walnut Creek, Calif.:
Since the longshoreworkers were locked out rather than on strike, why were they opposed to an injunction which required their employers to reopen for business? And Bush and the Carpenters Union have been making nice to each other. Will invocation of Taft-Hartley adversely affect their budding romance?
Terry Neal: Ah, great question. I'll be real honest here, I haven't been following this issue as closely as some others in recent weeks. But I had the same thought about the Carpenter's Union. Not to wimp out on you with my answer, but I'm not sure.
Arlington, Va.:
Your columns are great! You must have a fantastic editor!
Terry Neal: Hmmm. I wonder who this is...
Philadelphia, Pa.:
How much of the Montana flap is real indignation, and how much is the Republican candidate looking to bail because he's doing poorly. Couldn't he use this to his advantage?
Terry Neal: This thing is just fascinating to me. The Republican candidate is saying he's going to pull out after a negative ad began running about $27,000 he paid to settle charges regarding alleged abuse of a student loan. But the real quicker was that the ad emphasized he was a former "hairdresser" and show pictures of him wearing an open collar shirt and gold chains and rubbing lotion on a man's face. I guess this sort of thing doesn't go over to well in Montana. At this point, I believe, the reports are that his name will remain on the ballot against Dem Max Baucus and the GOP says it has no plans to try to replace him, Torricelli-style. We'll see.
Alexandria, Va.:
Are the Democrats as fractured as they look to me?
Terry Neal: Yes. I wrote a column last week about this very subject. The differences are there and they are real. Many in the House Democratic caucus were profoundly preturbed of the leadership role House Minority Leader Gephardt took in not only crafting the Iraq resolution with the White House, but getting out front in that WH press conference, shoulder to shoulder with the president. Many felt that the Gephardt--while he certainly had the right to vote any way he pleaed on the issue--should not have taken such a strong role, given the divisions in the caucus. And alas, we saw yesterday that more Dems voted against the resolution than for it. Now whether this division is a good or bad thing, I think people can decide for themselves.
Silver Spring, Md.:
Let's see. Since January 2001, my savings and 401Ks have lost half their value, more people are out of work, and I'm afraid to spend any more money for fear of losing my job and being on the street. The balanced budget is woefully out of balance. The stock market has crashed and the republicans still want to privitize social security but think they can just change the name from privatization to who knows what and we'll be fooled. Fianlly, my country may go to war. Why do you think in these circumstances the Republicans are so able to control the agenda and the people follow it?
Terry Neal: As I said earlier, I think people are preoccupied with the war on terrorism and the potential war with Iraq. I think people care about all of those other issues, but frankly mot of the media's attention has been focusing on these foreign policy matters. Also, many polls are showing that voters are not necessarily blaming either party or any particular leader for the economic decline. But you can be assured that the Dems, who'll be returning home to campaign next week, will be making an all out blitz to raise these issues before Nov. 5
Leesburg, Va.:
What are the latest polls for the Florida governor's race? Do you think Jeb Bush can be defeated?
Terry Neal: I'm sorry, I'm not sure I know the very latest poll. But the last one I saw had the Democrat, Mcbride, down 9 or so points to Jeb Bush. Bush's support was hovering around the low 50s. The governor needs to widen that gap some to be safe, and his campaign plans on doing that with it's overwhelming lead in fund-raising. Bush has something like $30 million in the bank and McBride's folks are saying they'll raise about $10 million before it's over. Given that fundraising edge, it might be difficult for McBride to get his message out and respond to all of the things he needs to in such a short period of time. The edge at this point goes to Bush, but then again, no one--but McBride and his wife, maybe--expected him to beat Reno in the primary.
Rockville, Md.:
I haven't seen any photos or film of millions of Afghans waving the American Flag and thanking us for liberating them; and helping them rebuild their country.
In fact it has been the opposite. Before going in we were told we were going to free the women from their burkas. The few photos I've seen recently show the women are still wearing their burkas.
What gives?
Terry Neal: Well, I haven't been to that country. But I've read the reporting and talked to many reporters who have been over there. Look, the Afghans are a diverse lot of people and there is no monolithic opinion over there about America. From what I understand, there are strong feelings in favor of the USA in some quarters and strong dislike in others. As for the burkas, remember, many women--particularly in the conservative rural countryside--were wearing them voluntarily before the nasty Taliban boys came through in the mid-1990s. Also, some of the women who would like to take them off are still afraid to do so. There's still a lot of crazy Taliban supporters running around there who would just assume kill a woman who shows her face.
Burke, Va.:
I read in The Post that Army was actually sobbing after he voted to authorize the Iraq resolution. Are there deep divisions on the Republican side about Iraq?
Terry Neal: You betcha! As you probably know, Armey and Sen. Chuck Hagel, the Republican from Nebraska, came out early and strong against war on Iraq, as did many of the conservative generals who made their names in past GOP administrations. But ultimately, the White House was able to either sooth over their concerns or put the screws to the dissenters to the extent that the divisions never really got out of control.
Boston, Mass.:
Does the media discourage public service by blurring line between what personal information is relevant regarding a public figure?
Does general voter disinterest on policy matters drive the media to seek out stories on a candidate’s personal life because personal life issues make better copy?
Do you consider personal life information to be relevant to a voter’s decision making process about whom they vote for?
Terry Neal: Yes. No. Maybe. I'll expound on the last part. If a candidate has made morality the centerpiece of his political career, then yes, personal foibles are almost always news in my book. Hypocrisy is always a big one with voters. Also, when the bad personal behavior is so extreme--getting jiggy with a 22 year old White House intern in the Oval Office--that's also news. But generally, I think most voters know that almost everyone has at least one thing in his/her past they'd rather not have be made public, and are not interested in gratuitous information about elected officials just for the sake of it.
Mt. Rainier, Md.:
Re the Montana hairdresser ad, the real joke is that the footage was taken from his own TV show. If the candidate had half the sense of a pet rock, he would have claimed it and run with it. What's disgraceful about the job? I'd vote for my hairdresser, he's a guy with great sense!
Terry Neal: Yeah, but you probably don't live on a ranch and herd cattle for a living!
Arlington, Va.:
If Sheila Jackson Lee refers to herself as the Queen, who is the King?
Terry Neal: Who asked this! That's hilarious...Uh, I don't know. Her husband maybe?
Silver Spring, Md.:
I just learned I'll be out of a job next year. I'm more worried about that than President Hussein's job security. I guess I'm selfish. I guess it would be considered tacky for anyone to bring up expectations of American casualties in Iraq.
Terry Neal: No. That's a legit issue. In fact, while poll after poll shows a majority of Americans support the president's position on Iraq, that support drops under 50 percent when asked a couple things: Whether the U.S. should wage unilaterally? What if there were thousands of casualties among U.S. soldiers? Clearly, the general question of whether most people support war on Iraq can't be answered with one question. Like many things, it's more complicated than that. My feeling is, however, no matter what people think now, most people will rally in support of the president's position and the soldiers as well if this thing actually happens. That's just a guess.
Arlington, Va.:
Do the voters see this stamp of approval for an invasion of Iraq as a seriously considered issue, or as a crass move to impact the coming elections?
Terry Neal: Well, there is no monolithic voter. Certainly some believe it is seriously considered. But much of the e-mail I've been getting from readers in recent weeks are from people who believe the latter. In fact, there's a theory floating around out there that all of this war talk you hear coming out of Washington will be toned down immediately after Nov. 5. OK! For all of you people who disagree, don't shoot the messanger. I'm not saying that's what I believe, I'm just telling you what some people are saying.
Mideast Policy:
Mr. Neal,
Can you explain how, or if, politics and money affects our policy towards Israel and the Palestinians?
Terry Neal: No, I can't. I mean, I have some opinions on this subject, but they're just that: opinions. I'll keep them to myself. For now at least. I mean, you could do an entire Live Online on just that question. Thanks for asking though.
Washington, D.C.:
What is the liklihood of the Senate shifting to Republican control after Nov. 5th? If this does happen, what policy direction do you see the Senate concentrating on? I have heard rumors that if this does happen that Lincoln Chafee may declare ind, in order for the Democrats to maintain Senate control. Have you heard similar whispers and if so, what is the liklihood of that happening?
Terry Neal: Well, I think the chances are somewhat less than they were two weeks ago, when Torricelli was tanking in NJ. Had he lost, that would have made it quite difficult for Dems to keep control because that was not supposed to be a competitive seat. Now with Lautenberg in, the polls are showing him with the edge over Republican Doug Forrester. There are six to eight other Senate races that are just too close to call, making it virtually impossible to predict what will happen. Hadn't heard the Chafee thing. But if true, it wouldn't be a total shock. Like Jim Jeffords a couple years ago, he seems more and more on the outskirts of the GOP right now. He appears to be the lone GOP dissenter in the Senate at this point on the Iraq resolution.
Harrisonburg, Va.:
What are the best 2002 races to watch? Which Democrats are currently jockeying for the 2004 Presidential nod?
Terry Neal: Hmmm...Of the governor's races, Florida and Texas are hot. In the Senate, there's several: Missouri, Texas, Colo., Ark. and Minn. are hot. I'm probably leaving out a couple. In the House, and this is amazing, there's only about dozen really toss-up races. Couldn't name them all of the top of my head, but there are a couple races were two incumbents have been forced to run against each other because of redistricting where it could get interesting: In Conn. with Republican Nancy Johnson vs. Democrat Jim Maloney; In Pa. with Republican George Gekas vs. Democrat Tim Holden.
Somewhere, USA:
What do you make of Bush's dropping approval numbers? Obviously they couldn't have remained as sky high as they were last year at this time, but do you think that the fall will continue or has his popularity pretty much stagnated around 60 percent (not that that is bad).
Terry Neal: If the president's popularity "stangates" around 60 percent, I don't think the WH would be too unhappy with that. You know, I don't really have a prediction about where his poll numbers will go. There are just too many variables--things that could effect his popularity--to consider.
Washington, D.C.:
What is Carnahan's chances of winning the special November election?
Terry Neal: That's one of the tight races, considered a toss-up by most analyst. So I'd say, 50 percent! Cop out, huh?
Terry Neal: All righty, folks. I'm so sorry that I didn't get to answer every question. But I did have a great time. It's my sincerest hope that you all will check out my column, when you can. While it does not run on a set schedule, I try to write at twice a week (a goal that I did not make this week), and the stories appear on the homepage of washingtonpost.com. You can always find past columns by clicking on the "OnPolitics" tab on the homepage, scrolling down and clicking on my picture. Once again, thanks for the great questions and everyone have a fabulous weekend. -- Terry
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