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Rep. J.C. Watts' Retirement
With Charles E. Cook
Political Analyst
Tuesday, July 2, 2002; 1:30 p.m. EDT

On Monday House Republican Conference Chairman J.C. Watts (Okla.), the only African-American Republican in Congress, announced he will not run for reelection this year. The move, which has been rumored for more than a week, deprives the Republican Party of its most visible minority leader and gives Democrats the chance to win another seat in their battle to retake the House.

Charles E. Cook, Editor and Publisher of The Cook Political Report and political analyst for the National Journal, was online to discuss Watts retirement and what it means for the Republican party.

The transcript follows.

Editor's Note: Washingtonpost.com moderators retain editorial control over Live Online discussions and choose the most relevant questions for guests and hosts; guests and hosts can decline to answer questions.

Charles Cook: First I would like to thank washingtonpost.com for the invitation to participate today. This is one of the most interesting elections I've seen in my 30 years of following politics. The Senate is the closest its been since 1956. The House is the closest since 1954. The last time both chambers were this close was 1932. Look at state legislative chambers. There are 99 in the United States. 49 are controlled by Democrats, 47 by Republicans. In terms of party identification, Republicans have a one point advantage nationwide. This truly is a remarkable time in American politics.

In the Senate, we expect the fight for control to end up a photo-finish, way too close to call. Democrats have to be really worried about Minnesota (Wellstone), South Dakota (Johnson) and Missouri (Carnahan), those are the ones that we are calling toss ups at this point, with New Jersey (Torricelli), Georgia (Cleland), Iowa (Harkin) and Montana (Baucus) as Lean Democratic seats, Louisiana (Landrieu) is in likely Democrat, the rest are safe.

For Republicans, Arkansas (Hutchinson), New Hampshire (R. Smith), Texas (Gramm/open) and to a lesser extent Colorado (Allard) are in the toss up column. We have the three other Republican open seats, North Carolina, South Carolina and Tennessee, as well as Oregon (Smith) in the Lean Republican column, with Maine (Collins) and Oklahoma (Inhofe) as likely Republican. Put all that together, you have a very close fight for control, likely to be the wee hours of the morning of November 6 before we have any idea who will control the Senate.

Now I'll turn to the questions.

College Park, Md.: How do you think Watt's retirement from office will affect Republican efforts to move Hispanics and African-Americans into "their column?"

Charles Cook: First, having first met J.C. Watts when he was looking at running for the U.S. Senate, before he ran for the House, I have to say that he is one of the most members of Congress I have ever met, and was an asset to Congress, notwithstanding any differences that anyone might have with him on ideology or partisanship.

Given how poorly President Bush did in 2002 with African-American voters, and generally how badly Republicans have done, J.C. was an important symbol that will be missed by the GOP. Also, he had a very different voice and set of life experiences than others in Republican (and for that matter Democratic) Congressional leadership meetings. That too will be missed. Don't think it matters much about Hispanic voters as they don't particularly identify with African-American voters or elected officials that much.

Alexandria, Va.: It seems to me that Rep. Watts has done the same thing in 1998 and 2000, complaining that the Republican leadership doesn't take him seriously blah blah blah and then a week later, he's had a change of heart after Reps. Hastert, Armey, DeLay et al have fallen all over themselves trying to placate him. Any reason to believe that it's more than a publicity stunt this time?

Charles Cook: I just don't think the guy was happy, he wanted to go home. He allowed himself to be talked into staying two other times, this time it didn't work. This guy is very close to his family, they never moved to Washington, and he decided it was best to go home, not completely dissimilar from Karen Hughes move to Texas, to give her family some semblence of normality. I view most elected officials pretty cynically, but not J.C. He's very different, at least to those that know him.

Bethesda, Md.: I don't fully understand the reasoning to retire at age 46. Anyone considering a high ranking political position has to be more than aware of the time it takes away from your own family. I just don't buy the excuse of Karen Hughes or J.C. Watts that they needed to spend more time with their families. What do you think the future holds for Mr. Watts? And what's the REAL reason he's leaving office?

Charles Cook: Just to echo the previous answer, these people have to be judged on their own terms, and it can best be done by people who know them personally, who have seen and watched them up close, ascertaining whether it's real or phony. Don't think it's best done on the other end of a tv or computer screen or newspaper pages. Certain other public officials, from both parties, saying precisely the same things, and my response might we be "B.S."

Washington, D.C.: I think it speaks volumes when the only African-American Republican leaves Congress. How will Rep. Watts' departure affect the party's efforts to recruit minority voters?

Charles Cook: The thing that I find most interesting is that when African-American Republicans have been elected to Congress, it has been from non-African-American districts. Sen. Edward Brooke of Massachusetts, Rep. Gary Franks of Connecticut and more recent J.C. Watts. These three all got elected with white not African-American votes, as there are few African Americans in their respective constituencies. We see Republicans run African-American candidates for the House every two years in minority districts and they always lose. Republicans have a long way to go before they begin winning respectable percentages of the African-American vote in Federal races.

Arlington, Va.: I realize that open seats may be different, but realistically don't you think that Watts seat is basically Safe Republican?

Charles Cook: Yes, we've looked pretty closely at J.C.'s district, OK-04. In Federal races, Democrats get slaughtered in that district. If you only look at state legislative contests, it's pretty competitive, Democrats averaging 45-48 percent of the two-party (independents/others thrown out) vote, but my guess is that you have a bunch of veteran, long-time, conservative Democratic state legislators there they routinely win by big margins but when they retire, they'll likely be replaced by Republicans. Sometimes state legislative results are not of great predictive value of future Congressional races. If Republicans nominated a very badly flawed nominee, and Democrats came up with a terrific candidate, Democrats might make it a playable race but I don't that happens. Former Secretary of State Tom Cole will likely be the GOP nominee and very likely the next Congressman from that district.

Washington, D.C.: Now that Watts is leaving, what do you think he will do next, and who are the leading GOP candidates to emerge to replace him?

Charles Cook: The rumor is that Cong. Deborah Pryce of Ohio has the inside track to replace J.C. though if Tom Davis is successful at the NRCC in holding the House, he could have a shot as well. His problem though is that he is way too moderate on social and cultural issues (i.e. guns and abortion) for many conservatives in his party.

Clinton, Md.: Isn't this a case of Rep. Watts being the last one to realize how he was being used and then dumped by the President and the GOP? He was never really given a position of any real power and after he couldn't deliver any minority vote in the election he was left completely out of the loop on decisions being made (even ones concerning his state). This is prime example why the GOP can not attract minority voters. Minoritites are still just tokens in the GOP.

Charles Cook: It's hard to see how Watts was "used and then dumped," given that Republicans (Congress and White House) plead with him to stay. Was Watts effective in reaching out to African-Americans? No, not particularly, if election results are any measure. But he project a favorable image to moderate whites, a contrast to the perception that grew during the Gingrich era that House Republicans were too conservative, too narrow, too intolerant. I would suggest that his presence was more effective as a symbol to moderate whites than to minorities.

Washington, D.C.: Do you think Rep. Watts thought that other African-American Republicans would be able to build on his success in Congress?

Charles Cook: It's a very long road, to be honest, I doubt if you have more than three or four African-Americans at any one time in the House in the next decade. The promising area for Republicans in terms of the minority vote is among Mexican Americans. I always try to avoid using the term Hispanic or Latino voters because they are anything but monolithic. Cubans vote very differently from Puerto Ricans, who vote very different from Mexican Americans who are different than Dominicans and those from other Latin American countries. Even among Cubans, there is a sharp divide between those who came over before the revolution, who tend to be more conservative Democrats around Tampa, and those who came during and after, who are extremely Republican and are more Miami/Dade County. Puerto Ricans will not begin to vote Republican on a regular basis for decades, but there is considerable evidence that when Republicans make a good faith effort to reach out to Mexican-Americans, they can draw some votes there and that as Mexican-American family incomes rise, their propensity to vote Republican goes up as well, not true with Puerto Ricans.

Washington, D.C.:
Aren't the Republicans who are commenting on Rep. Watts' retirement shooting themselves in the foot with regards to attracting minority voters? First, you have all the griping from unnamed sources that either say or intimate that Watts was whiny, histrionic, greedy and image conscious. If that kind of back-biting is what an African American can expect if they join the GOP, then there is little incentive to join (especially if you are an extremely small minority). Then, you have Delay's office saying that Rep. Delay wished Watts would stay because he's the only black GOP representative and "stability is important." Not the most stellar endorsement of Watts' contributions as a congressperson, if you ask me; it is actually rather dismissive of his contributions (if any) to this country and reeks of tokenism. In addition, I read a quote from a GOP pollster in the Post's article on Watts' retirement this morning lauding Watts' as a "articulate spokesman," which I find amusing because there was an apropos joke in a summer movie about the media using that term to describe African-American politicians in a partronizing manner (implying that some can surprisingly talk well). Moreover, I have not read anything substantive about his legislative record or any comments in the media or from his colleagues on his abilities as a congressperson. All of this makes it seem like Watts was primarily useful and necessary for publicity purposes. Seeing as constituencies want to be heard, not seen or used for the sake of political expediency, will the GOP be harmed not only by losing Rep. Watts, but by how they handled it in the press?

Charles Cook: My only response is to say that J.C. Watts was the most articulate member of the House Republican Leadership, I don't think that's patronizing at all. The guy gives mesmorizing speeches, haven't noticed the others with that ability.

Vienna, Va.: Doesn't look to me like J.C. is quitting politics for good. My guess is that he is setting up for a possible V.P. run in 2004. Let's face it. Cheney's heart is pumping on borrowed time, The Republican party needs more African-Americans, and J.C., unlike a lot of other people in politics, so far has been scandal-free. I personally like Cheney and I certainly hope that his heart doesn't give out on him, but if it does, J.C. will no doubt look very attractive to George W. as a replacement.

Charles Cook: I don't know if you'll see him in politics again or not. My guess is that he needs to make money, having five kids and two residences on a Congressional salary isn't that great, we'll have to wait and see.

Fairfax, Va.: Rep Watts'reason for leaving makes no sense. Sure, like many of us, he is putting in long hard hours; but he is setting an excellent example for his children by working hard and serving in the House.

Of course, all of us would like to spend more time with our children. However, it is just as important to set a positive example by providing the resources for them to grow and learn.

In other words, ya don't just up and quit your job (goodbye to income) for an unknown future when you have mouths to feed. It doesn't make any sense.

Any idea why Rep Watts is really leaving?

Charles Cook: Just to amplify on the previous question/answer, J.C. Watts can expect to double or triple his income next year going on the speaking circuit. He will do very well, not so much as a political speaker but as a motivational speaker. The guy will be able to pull a minimum of $10-20,000 a speech, minimum, maybe much more than that. With five kids and a wife back in Oklahoma, given that he was probably in DC 15-18 days a month, campaigning for other Republicans another 3-6 days a month, that takes a toll on anyone as close to his family as he is. I think people don't appreciate how much time members of Congress in general, and particularly those in the leadership with other demands on their time spend away from their families. Yes they choose this life and it certainly is an ego trip but that's an awful lot of soccer, baseball and basketball games, class plays and recitals,kids first steps and first teeth lost to be missed,

South Riding, Va.: The White House and Republicans pleading for Watts to stay, as you describe it, is likely more akin to their pleas to keep the Rupublican Senator Jeffords from defecting last year. Having the sole black Republican leave the fold, and his being in high rank, leaves the Republican Party battered and bruised and losing its sole symbol of racial diversity.

Charles Cook: It doesn't look good but let's face it. This is the big story this week, a little next week and will be largely forgotten in a month. Let's not overplay this thing that much.

Arlington, Va.: I am no friend of Cong. Watts' politics, but I must commend him for living up to the 1990s Republican ideal of term limits.

And isn't there any better terminology we can use than to say he is "retiring?" He's not going to the old folks home. And let me be the first to predict that should Cheney decide to forego a second campaign in 2004 for health reasons, J.C. Watts will be on the short list of candidates to replace him.

Charles Cook: Term limits, wow, had't heard that term in a while. This is an idea whose time came, and left. No one loses for refusing to obey their term limits pledges anymore, many Republicans in Congress would dearly love to get rid of the term limits that they placed on chairmanships and leadership positions back when that was all the rage.

To a large extent, the term limits movement was a product of too little Congressional turnover in 1988 and 1990, which was followed by 1992 and 1994 when there was too much, with many junior members who hardly understood the Congressional and legislative process taking over subcommittees and committees, with Republicans just now finding their stride. You won't see any new term limits put into place around the country anytime soon.

Washington, D.C.: Do you think Watts will be back, possibly for a run at the Senate or a high-profile appointment in a cabinet-level position?

Charles Cook: Not any time soon, he needs to go home and make money first, then he can come back into government later when his kids are bigger and he's taken care of financially.

Tucson, Ariz.: What do message (if any) do you think Watts was trying to convey with his reporting of conversations with Rosa Parks? Do you think this seat can be held by the Republicans or are we looking at a conservative Democrat taking over? Is the late exit a way of Watts swinging the district to the Dems and "punishing" the Republicans/Bush for disrespecting him?

Charles Cook: Don't know about the Rosa Parks thing. No I don't think he stalled to screw his party or anything, I think he just anguished over the decision. Hard to say no to a President of the United States, but he just did. As I said earlier, I would be very surprised to see his district go Democratic.

Kansas City, Mo.: Friends from out-of-state always ask me why Sen. Carnahan is always listed on the endangered list. I tell them I don't know, there's no great groundswell against her (I'm the lone Democrat in the office and I NEVER hear people complain about her). The guy running against her is viewed as having more problems. What gives? (I think Sen. Hutchison is the endangered one.)

Charles Cook: Actually you will notice that I put Hutchinson down as the most vulnerable Republican seat up this year.

I think there are real questions as to whether Sen. Carnahan is on top of the job. There are lots of stories, from Democrats and Republicans alike, from people coming up from Missouri as well as those inside the beltway, that she doesn't yet understand the legislative process, that she seems lost around the Hill and is not remotely familiar with the issues. Sure Senate Majority Leader Tom Daschle and House Minority Leader Dick Gephardt are teeing issues up for her to kick, but that isn't the same. She gets fawning press coverage in the Missouri papers, who also rarely miss an opportunity to stick it to Talent. I'm not a huge advocate of the idea of media bias but this is one of the most flagrant situations I have seen in many years. The challenge for Talent is to raise the case of effectiveness and leadership with no help from the media who ostensibly are objectively covering her. This is a state that had a presidential, senate and gubernatorial races all settled by three points or less in 2000, this would should be very close, we'll see, but it should be competitive.

Reston, Va.: I like Watts and am sorry to see him go, but I'm not really sure what his lasting legacy is, if any. During his rather high profile tenure in Congress, the Republican Party still wasn't able to make appreciable inroads into the African American electorate. In addition, it appears that overall voter sentiment about the House Republicans has slowly but steadily become more negative over time. What is his legacy, in your view?

Charles Cook: I agree with your sentiments and to be honest, I'm not sure what his legacy will be either. Probably that he helped, in the post-Gingrich era, smooth out some of the House Republicans roughest and sharpest edges, helped the party project an image that was more tolerant, symbolizing reaching out more than they had in the past. I don't agree that sentiments towards House Republicans have gotten more negatively, 1995 and 1996 was a horror show, 1997 and 1998 not much better (remember impeachment), but since then, I think their image has softened a great deal, with Hastert and Watts deserving considerable credit.

Charles Cook: Thanks for all the great questions and comments, this is obviously a group that follows politics very closely. We might have time for one more, I'm not sure.

washingtonpost.com:

That wraps up today's show. Thanks to everyone who joined the discussion.

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