Analysis: "Patterns of Global Terrorism" Report
With Dr. Melvin Goodman
Professor of International Studies at the National War College
Wednesday, May 22, 2002; 11 a.m. EDT

The State Department has just released the "Patterns of Global Terrorism" report, a complete annual report on countries and groups threatening possible terrorist activities against the U.S..

"After the devastating attacks on New York and Washington in September and the subsequent launch of President Bush's war on terrorism, this annual report has taken on a new significance.

" Secretary of State Colin Powell, briefing reporters on the report, said the events of the past year show the need to enhance U.S. efforts against terrorism. Echoing similar remarks from other administration officials in the past several days, he said terrorists are hard at work seeking weapons of mass destruction, "whether radiological, chemical, biological or nuclear." Read the full story State Dept. Releases Report on International Terrorism.

Dr. Melvin Goodman, professor of International Studies at the National War College and and senior fellow at the Center for International Policy, was online Wednesday, May 22 at 11 a.m. EDT, discusses the recently released "Patterns of Global Terrorism" report by the State Department.

The transcript follows.

Editor's Note: Washingtonpost.com moderators retain editorial control over Live Online discussions and choose the most relevant questions for guests and hosts; guests and hosts can decline to answer questions.

Southern Maryland:: I've always felt the prime way to paralyze Washington, DC would be to cripple the underground Metro system during rush hour. Thousands of people go in and out, most carrying briefcases, tote bags, backpacks, with no security checks at all. I'd be very, very leery of travelling on Metro now and in the future. Personally, I'm claustrophobic and prefer above-ground travel myself. Has anything come to light that terrorists plan on crippling subway systems in the US?

Dr. Melvin Goodman: If you are indeed claustrophobic, then probably you should stay out of the subway system. Let's face it, there is nothing easier than shutting down our transportation system if that is the target. But random warnings about metro systems or apartment houses, which the Bush administration seems to favor right now, is irresponsible and counterproductive. These general warnings should be stopped immediately. We should try to panic Al Qaeda and not help Al Qaeda panic us.

Alexandria, Va.: Does the report differentiate between the clerical rulers of Iran and the less-radical elected officials such as Khatemi?

Isn't Khatemi simply a mouthpiece who defends the clerical rulers?

I remember Khatemi justifying the imprisonment of Iranian Jews in Shiraz, and falsely claiming that the clerics would give those Jews a fair trial.

Dr. Melvin Goodman: The report does try to differentiate somewhat between the clerics and Khatemi, but I don't believe that it goes far enough in doing so. Khatemi has a long way to go to become the moderate leader we would like to see in Iran, but it certainly is a step in the right direction and he is the only possibility for reason in Iran at this time. I don't believe that he can simply be dismissed as a mouthpiece for the clerics, although I agree that there are definite limits to the flexibility of this man.

Arlington, Va.: Dr. Goodman,
Why isn't Saudi Arabia included on the list of states that sponsor terrorism? In the months following 9/11, the role of "charity" organizations, funded by the government of Saudi Arabia, and serving as covert terrorist infrastructure has become known to all. That is separate and apart from the large contribution of Saudi citizens to the cause of Islamic terror (one only need examine the nationalities of our Gitmo guests to confirm this). Is Cuba really a greater contributor to world terror than Saudi Arabia? What is the point of such a list if it's going to be so politicized and removed from reality?

Dr. Melvin Goodman: There is a one word explanation for the failure to cite Saudi Arabia in any description or analysis of terrorism. And it is a short word: OIL. The Saudis do many of the things that Iran and Syria do, regarding aid to the Palestinian groups. Also, putting Cuba on the list year after year is mindless and absurd and compromises the entire project. And yes, I agree, the State Department list is heavily politicized and should be abandoned and turned over to a more objective group such as the congressional reference service at the Library of Congress. They do better analytical work than the intelligence community on most issues.

Frederick, Md.: Sir,

Following the weeks after the attacks on the World Trade Center there were dozens of reports of American vigilanties attacking innocent Arab Americans or anyone who looked like one. Since many government officials have been quoted as saying more attacks are inevitable, my question is, if there were more attacks, do you believe a more orchestrated vigilante response, i.e. lynch mobs, will occur? What is the purpose of the government telling us that attacks are imminent, even if it were the truth? Sounds to me like a battle cry.

Dr. Melvin Goodman: I agree that the warnings announcements of the Bush administration are mindless and absurd. They are simply a diversion from the discussion on the role of the intelligence community in providing or, in this case, NOT providing warning of a terrorist attack...and now the evidence of a coverup of the role of the community. There will be no lynch mobs in the country and, in fact, the American community has been generally restrained over the period of the crisis. It is our leaders who are getting hysterical (see Cheney, Ashcroft, Rumsfeld, and now Mueller over the weekend, for example).

San Francisco, Calif.: The web site of ABC News reports "Freed Afghan Fighters Vow to Kill Again". This repeats the news that Peter Jennings broadcast on ABC News last night that captured enemies of the USA are about to be released from prison, but in interviews they said they intend to kill more Americans. Why does the US government permit this? What is the US government doing to affect the homicidal, anti-American views of its most dangerous prisoners in Guantanamo?

Dr. Melvin Goodman: I haven't seen the ABC item, but it too sounds too hysterical. The American military has done a zealous job of rounding up prisoners and tend to believe that there will be a careful and prudent job of releasing only those who are not a threat. Have some faith in your government on this one and be somewhat more skeptical of everything on TV news.

Washington, D.C.: Dear Dr. Goodman,
How are we to reconcile Adminstration officials' consistent declaration of the "inevitability" of devastating attacks with their continuing demand for more and more resources for counterterrorism? One wonders why, if the attacks are so inevitable, we are pouring all these resources into the FBI, CIA, and such. On the other hand, since we are giving increasing levels of resources to these agencies, should they not be working very hard to make sure such "inevitabilities" DO NOT take place?
Thanks.

Dr. Melvin Goodman: Again, this talk of inevitable attacks is hysterical and mindless and very political. And we should be very careful in simply pouring an additional $5 billion into the intelligence community. Most of the corrections to be made would cost nothing. For example, we need better strategic analysis at FBI and CIA, but that takes time and patience and better organization. Money will not fix that one. Money would be better spent on computers for INS and the FBI (Freeh, by the way, hated computers and refused to use one), more technology for the Coast Guard (which plays an essential role), etc. Simply cancel national missile defense (Rumsfeld's dream program) and we will have the money we need. Build NMD and the opportunity cost will dictate that we will never have the money we need for the necessary programs.

Annandale, Va.: Is it just me or does it seem that some recent news releases are a little to informative in pointing out our weaknesses and deficiencies in our war against terrorism? I'm concerned that it will encourage terrorist attacks before we can fix the problems. Shouldn't the media be showing more responsibility in what it reports?

Dr. Melvin Goodman: The problem is not the media. The problem is government spokesmen and some political representatives (such as Senator Shelby) who like to flaunt their knowledge of sensitive information by giving it to the media. Don't ask the media to do what the government is unwilling to do, which is exercise some discretion.

Mt. Lebanon, Pa.: So what's the point of doing intensive, exhaustive studies and reports on terrorism if no one in the White House is going to READ and ACT on them? The Phoenix memo comes to mind. Thanks much.

Dr. Melvin Goodman: I agree.......but the responsibility belongs in FBI headquarters which could not deal with a new and wise idea. Or with CIA headquarters who could not imagine an Al Qaeda attack at home. Remember: behind nearly every intelligence failure (Pearl Harbor, October War, September 11th) is a failed assumption that was never questioned!!!!

Washington, D.C.: Is it productive for the government to issue blanket statements like the one Vice President Cheney did earlier this week concerning future attacks? Isn't this tactic just a reaction to the news that the Administration and other agencies failed to share and act on important information they had before September 11?

Dr. Melvin Goodman: I totally agree. Cheney's so-called warning was political blather to confuse the public and divert the media. And guess what: it is working, unfortunately.

Tysons Corner, Va.: I don't think our government is taking these threats seriously enough. "The terrorists will use weapons of mass destruction eventually, and we'll just have to live with it. There's nothing we can do about it."
Yes, there is.
For God's sake, close the borders. I don't care if we are a so-called "free society". We're at war, let's start acting like it. Shut down the borders with Mexico and Canada. Beef up the Coast Guard so that no waterway goes unguarded. Airplanes? Mandate extensive background checks for ALL air passengers coming into the United States.
I realize this will drastically change our way of life, but hey, that's what happens with a little something called history. You go through periods of time where the social climate changes, usually out of necessity for a society's survival. Look at WWII. This entire country had to make sacrifices in order to get behind an effort we felt was worth fighting for. And that wasn't even on our own soil.
I'm not saying we should be isolationist. I'm merely saying that we should act on these threats as though we truly cared about protecting our country.
And during this time that we are closed to the outside, we should send our soldiers, Special Ops forces, diplomats, etc. out into the world to dismantle terrorist forces, safeguard all unchecked nuclear warheads, and form extensive networks of terrorist-smashing intelligence alliances.
That's how you win this war.

Dr. Melvin Goodman: My guess is that you have one of the bomb shelters that President Kennedy advised us to build in the early 1960s. If so, my advice is that you should be stocking it with soup and soda and sit this phase out. We can not hide from this crisis and we cannot build a wall around ourselves. Let's face it: we have had some significant success since September 11th....both military success and diplomatic success.

Washington, D.C.: Can there be any good justification of Attorney General John Ashcroft's decision to stop travelling commercial airliners last summer while failing to warn other travelers that there was a real threat? It appears to me that no warning was issued because, as Condi Rice I believe said, there was a desire not to DISRUPT COMMERCIAL TRAFFIC! Given a choice between capitalist profits and public safety, clearly the former wins out here. As someone who travelled from Washington,DC, to California with children last summer, I would really have appreciated having the same warnings as our esteemed AG.
Thank you for your comments.

Dr. Melvin Goodman: You have raised a serious issue here. If the government had enough information to warn embassies and military facilities abroad and the diplomatic and military families travelling on commercial airlines abroad, then what should we know at home. My view is that the general warning (such as the past few days) are counterproductive and useless...but that specific warnings should be treated differently. Let's face it, if we relied on the airliners to conduct significant security against terrorism, we would be in a great deal of trouble. They don't like to mess with their on-time records, do they?

Washington, D.C.: Up until yesterday I had been thinking the war on terrorism was making progress. The State Department report seems to confirm that. But Secretary Rumsfeld's statement yesterday that it is "inevitable" that terrorists will use WMD on us makes me wonder what the point of all this is. Isn't preventing the use of WMD one of our main goals? If it can't be met, why are we spending all these resources? Why not use the money to build fallout shelters instead?

Dr. Melvin Goodman: Rumsfeld has made a major error in the WMD warning. States, even so-called terrorist ones, are unlikely to use WMD against the United States. That's why is NMD program is such a bad idea. Terrorists come in under the radar and, as a rsult, we need to beef up the Coast Guard, the Border Service, the INS, etc. Pentagon power is good in the first phase, but we will need good intelligence and good law enforcement in the next phase. It is far too early for the bomb shelter....JFK had that one wrong and it would still be wrong to go to that level.

Fairfax, Va.: Dr. Goodman --

By how much has the intelligence gathering and cooperation between FBI,CIA,DOD really improved since 09-11-01? Have the flaws that allowed the Phoenix memo to sit, been fixed?

Dr. Melvin Goodman: The CIA certainly has done a better job of sharing.....the FBI has a paranoid culture and has a long way to go to address the problem of sharing. The DOD plays too many political games to share adequately. The flaws surrounding the Phoenix memo reflect a lack of intelligence, imagination, and innovation. They will be the last things to be fixed, especially at the FBI. Remember: the FBI building is named after who????

Philadelphia, Pa.: Do you have any idea what Secretary Rumsfeld was thinking by announcing yesterday that terrorists will - without doubt - nuke American cities (at least that's how it comes across from the AP report)? What is a member of the public living four blocks from the center of a major city supposed to do with that "information" - move to a small town immediately? I just do not get this administration. Sometimes it's "awful things may happen but live your lives and we'll try to stop them," and sometimes it's
"you're doomed and we can't do a thing about it." I realize it's a real threat, but if his idea was to get across to the Appropriations Committee that he needs funding to counter it, why present it as an inevitable fact in a forum where the press will pick it up and perhaps oversimplify it?
Your thoughts?

Dr. Melvin Goodman: My basic thought is that Rumsfeld is out of control. He spends too much time in front of the camera and the media treat him as if he is some kind of philosopher king dispensing arcane knowledge. He should not even be addressing such as issues as the tactics and objectives of terrorist groups or so-called terrorist states. That is not why we have a secretary of defense. A TV camera and a mike does not add up to a license to spout universal knowledge.

New York, N.Y.: Why is our goverment being so negative? Why are they saying they can't do anything to stop them. If thats the truth what do we do just sit back and wait to get attacked? Why are they not offering the public to support the US gov and arm forces. To me the last 5 days seems like they want us to give up.

Dr. Melvin Goodman: The Bush administration over the past five days reflected the impact of panic and insecurity over decisionmaking as well as the lack of adult supervision. There is obviously the absence of a seasoned political observer (Cutler or Gergin, for example) in charge and the entire country will be on xanax if the Bush administration doesn't show some signs of self-control.

Bethesda, Md.: Dear Sir,
Although I agree with increasing intelligence gathering and homeland defense, etc... it does not seem that we will ever be able to have a 100% defense system against terrorists. In your opinion what other fronts can we pursue, i.e., political, to avoid these tragic events in the long run.

Dr. Melvin Goodman: Good point. There is no such thing as complete security. And we have neglected key diplomatic areas that have worsened the international situation. We have been practicing unilateralism in our international dealings, which has isolated the US in the international community. And we have not address key problems that could be fixed: try dialogue with North Korea, try recognition with Cuba, try bilateral contacts with Iran, press Israel to abandon the settlements on the West Bank and Gaza. And there are many more...that require diplomacy and not the military instrument.

Los Angeles, Calif.: Dr. Goodman

Do you feel it's possible that the Bush administration pushed the story of
"knowing" about the 9/11 attacks in order
to justify the recent wave of warnings?
And that they thereby spread the
sentiment that we're a country in a major
war, making it easier to follow though with
their ultra-conservative agendas? Recent
events seem to help Cheney's requests
to not criticize a president at war.

Dr. Melvin Goodman: I believe that the Bush administration is using the war to help the political standing of the president and that this problem will get worse as the next election approaches. But I don't believe that Bush pushed the 9/11 story because the story makes him look somewhat feckless and out of control of his own team. Nevertheless, the warnings (as irresponsible as they are) are a useful device to remind the nation that we are still in the "great war," which the Justice Department calls it in its employment ads.

Washington, D.C.: Dr. Goodman,

Thank you for sharing your thoughts. They add a welcome voice of reasonable thinking to all the useless "sky is falling" warnings of the last few days. Question related to the State Dept. report: how likely is it that so-called terrorist states will give weapons of mass destruction to terrorist groups? Isn't there a significant chance that the U.S. will be able to trace this and punish the offending state- a deterrance factor?

Dr. Melvin Goodman: I totally agree. The most effective nuclear weapons (missiles) have a return address on board and are not a like instrument to be transferred. Japanese terrorists demonstrated that it is very difficult to work with biological weapons....and it would take a ton of chemical weapons to get the job done. We need some sanity on this discussion, but the State Department merely adds to the frenzy with their polemical report....and their polemical terrorist list. Chill, State!!!

Fairfax, Va.: Haven't seen the new report yet, but I was wondering if you knew whether it discussed any sort of possible relationship-building between extremist groups abroad and those here. I recall just after 9-11, several white supremicist and militia groups offered up support for the attacks. If the two factions do start working together, how will that affect the US's antiterrorism strategy? After all, we can't have retaliatory strikes against all of Idaho, and I doubt that US. citizens would stand for civil liberties invasions against the non-dark and swarthy.

Dr. Melvin Goodman: The report does not deal with domestic terrorism or domestic terrorist organizations.

Burke, Va.: Why isn't Lois Freeh being hauled in front of Congrss to answer some questions. I personally can't belive the shambles he seems to have left the FBI in. His not using a computer is asinine, but explains why the computer system wasn't updated. It seems Lois Freeh had plenty of time to investigate the Clinton administartion, but not much on improving the FBI.

Dr. Melvin Goodman: Louis Freeh's reign was a disaster....see Ron Kessler's new book on the FBI....and, yes, he should be part of any serious post mortem or investigation....but, again, let's fact it, this administration doesn't want a serious post mortem or investigation...and that is why they are leaving the issue of an investigation with the intelligence committees who have compromised the role of oversight over the intelligence community. Congress has been a major player in the blundering on this one....and Senators Shelby and Graham are playing lead roles in getting it wrong.

Brooklyn NY: Why would a goverment say well terroist are going to get WMB and use them. Do they want all major cities to shut down out of fear.I worry every day. And to here our leaders talk of doom and gloom is very depressing. why are they not saying were going to close our borders invest in nuke and bio and cem sensors, there are things to be done I think , I hope! but I feel after this week what hope do we have.

Dr. Melvin Goodman: Again, you are spot on in my view. All of you agreeing with this point of view should write your own representatives and tell the political players to back off the propaganda techniques. It is counterproductive!!!

Washington, DC: Is the National War College related to the government? Does it receive funds or grants from the government? I'm surprised, I thought you'd be toting the administration line.

Dr. Melvin Goodman: The National War College is administration jointly by the Departments of State and Defense, but let's all say a little prayer for academic freedom. Is this a great country or what????

Harrisburg, Pa.: What creates a terrorist? Would economic improvements in the countries where terrorists breed help resolve their anger? If so, why do we see terrorists emerging from the middle classes? If it is political ideology, is it correct to state that terrorists do not emerge from democratic countries? Would enlightening the public in these countries of democratic ideals help, or is that too much too idealistic an expectation?

Dr. Melvin Goodman: Unfortunately, there is a terrorist element that is nihilistic. That was true in the 1980s regarding terrorism in Europe (The CIA missed that one also because Bill Casey and Bob Gates blamed the Soviets for everything) and it is true now in the Middle East and Southwest Asia. Having said that, however, it should be acknowledged that the United States must step up to the plate on a series of diplomatic issues, abandon the policy of unilateralism, and try to negotiate some of the key international security problems. Economic support would not address the problem of terrorism but it would make it more difficult for terrorists to find safe havens and sanctuaries.

Fairfax, Va.: How much is Mueller really doing to change the FBI's culture? He and the AG are really getting the butts kicked over these recent revelations. Are they going to be held accountable for the mistakes of their respective fiefdoms?

Over 3000 people are dead -- if nothing screams put aside your differences and agency cultures and right these grave errors, nothing does.

Hoover has been dead nearly 30 years -- while he might have been successful at some things, he is not cult-worthy.

Dr. Melvin Goodman: I believe that Mueller is doing his best and that he is on the right track to bring the FBI into the 21st century. But he is carrying a heavy load, including the anachronistic culture of the FBI and the strange ideology of Secretary Ashcroft. His warnings over the weekend about the threat to apartment houses was out of order and out of line, but he was obviously under heavy administration pressure to get on the bus and scare the American public with reckless driving.

College Park, Md.: I just wanted to say thanks for being a voice of reason.

Dr. Melvin Goodman: Thank you...I'll share that one with my wife.

Silver Spring, Md.: Dr. Goodman, do I have it correct? Some of the warnings of attacks that are being publicized are derived from information that Al Quaeda and Taliban prisoners in Guantanamo have provided, people who have been prisoners for 6 months or more, out of communication with their leaders? Wasn't it also publicized that Al Quaeda kept the 9/11 terrorists ignorant of their ultimate targets and methods until the very end. In short, isn't the "intelligence" not very intelligent?

Dr. Melvin Goodman: Again, you are spot on. This material is not intelligence material or the stuff of warnings intelligence. It is merely worst case raw reporting and should be treated by professionals who understand the problems associated with such collection. As an intelligence professional (CIA and State Department for 24 years), I find it embarrassing to see raw materials handled so unprofessionally and recklessly.

Gullsgate Minn.: Dr. Melvin Goodman: I looked over the State Department's list of terrorists groups--noted a number with Latin American 'connections'. If some of these terrorist groups contain officers who were trained at the former, yet still surviving "School of the Americas" (no rose by any other name, no)...then should not the SOA, that terror training organization, be added to the growing list by the State Department'" Wouldn't that be the 'appropriate' thing to do?
And by the way, where is Ridge in all this hoopla...attending his coloring book countdown with which of his three prime crayolas?

Dr. Melvin Goodman: I believe that we have tried to clean up the School of Americas just as we have tried to clean up our act in Central and South America. Ridge and George Tenet have similar problems: great titles but no statutory authority and no control over budget or staffing of their so-called empires. Also I don't believe that it was fair to bring an official with experience at the state level to Washington to deal with difficult problems at the federal level. It is an impossible task.

Alexandria, Va.: My reading of this report is that it states that Yasser Arafat's Fatah organization carries out terrorist attacks under the names "Tanzim" and "Al-Aqsa Brigades."

What does the report say about the involvement of Arafat's Fatah organization in acts of terror?

Dr. Melvin Goodman: I believe that the addition of Al-Aqsq to the list is a new one, but that the link to Fatah was not made specific. Let's face it: most of the Palestinian terrorism is from groups that Arafat does not control or even influence. It is absurd to deny the PNA statehood but somehow expect Arafat and the PNA to act as if it has the power of a state.

Baltimore, Md.: Dr. G:

Thanks for this informative and interesting forum. Two questions: Why do you think terrorists will NOT use WMD against the U.S.? I thought OBL stated that was one of the priorities: "Maximum casualties."

Two: Does anybody have the guts to reign in Rumsfeld? I was crazy about the guy a couple months ago, but now I'm starting to think HE'S crazy.

Also, just as an observation: I was in the Baltimore harbor on a boat last week and was surprised at the police and security presence patrolling the waters (there are a lot of oil tanks). I think that makes me feel better.

Thanks!

Dr. Melvin Goodman: Thanks for the intellligence on the Baltimore harbor. The real threat regarding terrorism is on the container ships. That is why the Coast Guard will ultimately be more important in this struggle than the Air Force. Yes, Rumsfeld is out of control...and the media contributed to his exalted status over the past several months. I don't expect OBL to use WMD because I don't expect any state to provide him with WMD and I don't believe that he is the ability make his own WMD. The documents found in his cave were primitive.

Dr. Melvin Goodman: We appear to be out of time. Thank you for the excellent and probing questions....I hope the answers were up to the challenge. Also, I believe that we established that the Bush administration's tactics of fear over the weekend were counterproductive and ultimately dangerous. I hope that this opinion gets across to our opinion leaders and that changes at the top are made. We should not be in the business of scaring ourselves out of our wits. Thanks again, Mel Goodman

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