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America At War:
Southeast Asia
With Catharin Dalpino
Brookings Institution Fellow
Thursday, Jan. 24, 2002; 2 p.m. EST
As the Bush administration pushes its war on terrorism beyond Afghanistan, Southeast Asia has become a new focus. The Philippines government announced last week that 600 American troops will participate in joint military exercises with Philippine forces. The United States is also looking towards Indonesia, where officials say the al Quaeda network continues to operate.
Brookings Institution Fellow and former State Department official Catharin Dalpino was online to take your questions and comments on Southeast Asian and the war on terrorism.
The discussion is part of a regular series developed by Brooking's America's
Response to Terrorism project and washingtonpost.com to examine the key policy questions related to the U.S. fight against terrorism.
The transcript follows.
Editor's Note: Washingtonpost.com moderators retain editorial control
over Live Online discussions and choose the most relevant questions for guests
and hosts; guests and hosts can decline to answer questions.
Washington, D.C.:
You know, I can't help but find it a bit ironic, and troubling, that we're sending military forces into the Philippines as a way of ensuring peace and stability. Not long ago, with the ousting of Ferdinand Marcos' regime, the Philippines stood as an example that political change and stability were possible through nonviolent means.
There are many tracks of diplomarcy and peace building. What options, if any, is the Bush administration pursuing aside from just peace through armed coercion?
Catharin Dalpino: Although the Philippines indeed is an important example of non-violent political change at the national level, the armed insurgency in the southern province of Mindanao never completely subsided. One reason for this is that disparate groups have formed in that area with differing agendas and methods of pursuing their political goals. However, since the return of democratic government to the Philippines in 1986, and particularly after the end of the cold war later that decade, governments in Manila have attempted to negotiate peace accords and autonomy arrangements with groups advocating separatism for the province, where most of the Philippines' Muslim minority of 5 million reside. The United States has supported these accords, politically and with development assistance to raise the economic levels in Mindanao.
However, the Abu Sayyaf, the group of greatest concern both to Manila and the United States, has in recent years abandoned its political agenda in favor of kidnapping tactics to demand ransom. In the past few years they have seized wealthy foreigners and Filipinos, and have murdered some. An American hostage was murdered last year, and the Abu Sayyaf is currently holding another American couple. The Abu Sayyaf have chosen to remain outside the peace process with Manila, and are not supported by other groups in Mindanao. They were known to have ties to Al-Qaeda in the early 1990's, when they were established, although whether they have maintained those ties to date is not known. Police or military action by the Philippines armed forces is therefore one immediate strategy toward the Abu Sayyaf.
However, your question raises the issue of the underlying causes of separatism and even terrorism, and those do require greater attention in the Washington policy community. President Arroyo has pointed out that poverty provides a breeding ground for resentments that could lead to giving shelter to terrorist groups. The long-term solution lies in ameliorating conditions in Mindanao which create this vulnerability, and those goals cannot be reached with military action.
Cleveland Park,Washington, D.C.:
Does ASEAN have any kind of unified military structure that the U.S. could work with on anti-terrorism issues? In the past there were agreements to coordinate anti-piracy efforts in the region, and I'm wondering if negotiations at that level might help avoid the internal political obstacles to military cooperation with the U.S. that we've seen in Indonesia and the Phillipines.
Catharin Dalpino: ASEAN does not have a unified military command or structure, since the Association has historically been a political rather than a military alliance. Interestingly, however, the events of September 11 did give rise to a meeting of ASEAN military chiefs, the first of its kind in ASEAN history. For the past decade, as you point out, ASEAN has considered the possibility of greater cooperation on law enforcement, which could include a military dimension. However, because ASEAN is a consensus-based organization, some of the more fruitful cooperation is often informal and ad hoc, because it is often difficult to get the ten governments to agree on actions which affect one or more member states. Cooperation on counter-terrorism will probably take this form long before ASEAN has a formal framework in this area.
You raise a good point about restrictions on U.S. military cooperation with both Indonesia and the Philippines, but the Bush administration has recently agreed to provide training in counter-terrorism to Indonesian military officers in a regional program. A regional approach may help avoid some problems that arise on cooperation at the bilateral level, on both sides of the Pacific.
Miami, Fla.:
Unlike most other countries in SE Asia, Thailand seems to be free from turmoil and violence. Do you think it will remain so for a while? I am going to be travelling there in the next few months.
Catharin Dalpino: As events surrounding the 1997-88 economic crisis in Asia (which began in Thailand) demonstrated, Thailand is basically a stable country. It endured a dramatic drop in its economic health without reversing its new democratic system; indeed, during the crisis Thailand was able to continue democratizing by promulgating a new constitution. However, as the events of September 11 demonstrate, no country is hermetically sealed against the possibility of violence within their borders.
As you may know, Thailand has a Muslim minority population concentrated in the southern part of the country. However, the Thai Muslim community has not demonstrated extremist inclinations and it is difficult to imagine that it would be a beachhead for terrorism in the region. That said, the spillover effects of violence from neighboring countries must be considered. To answer your question in the most practical terms, although world events since September 11 resonate in Thailand as they do almost everywhere in the world, there are no particular red flags that indicate the country will experience an upswing in violence in the foreseeable future.
Washington, D.C.:
The Phillipines has been in the news recently with the U.S. providing assistance to the government there, but Indonesia is going to prove to be a more serious challenge. It is the country with the largest Muslim population. What sorts of actions are being proposed by both the U.S. government and the Indonesian government in terms of dealing with Muslim extremists in Indonesia and not alienating the population there?
Catharin Dalpino: Separatist problems in Indonesia are essentially political and economic problems, which have taken on a military dimension because of the internal violence they have generated. However, these problems cannot inherently be solved with military action.
You are correct in pointing out that the military-to-military relationship between Indonesia and the United States is much more limited than with the Philippines, although there are clear limitations to that relationship as well. On the U.S. side, Congress has made clear that Indonesia must account for military abuses in East Timor before fuller cooperation between the two militaries will be allowed. In recent days Jakarta has moved closer to agreeing to an accountability exercise for East Timor, but that is no means assured. Even if there were no political obstacles on the U.S. side, it is doubtful that the U.S. would be able to field a significant number of American troops in Indonesia to address extremist groups. In contrast to the Philippines, although Indonesia and the United States had common cause during the cold war, there was no close military alliance, as there was with the Philippines and with Thailand. At present, with Indonesia attempting to cope with a number of internal conflicts, it is doubtful that a muscular American presence would be welcomed even in any quarter of the Indonesian policy community. So direct American military action should be ruled out.
Short-term possibilities include greater intelligence sharing and military training in counter-terrorism, as the U.S. and Indonesia have recently agreed to do through a regional program. In the mid to long-term it is important that the United States continue to support Indonesia's recovery from the 1997-98 economic crisis, and that it provide assistance for programs to promote dialogue between groups in conflict, and between Jakarta and the provinces. Like the rest of Southeast Asia, Indonesia's Muslim population on the whole is historically moderate, but recent economic downturns and other pressures have given a slight boost to extremism.
Annandale, Va.:
What if the Manila government were to grant full independence to the muslim minority in the southern Philippines; do you think they could rule themselves or would they degenerate into another "Chechnya?"
Catharin Dalpino: Because Mindanao is economically less developed than the rest of the Philippines, full independence could result in a further economic downturn for the population. In addition, separation of Mindanao could have a spill-over effect in other island countries of Southeast Asia, notably Indonesia and Malaysia. The reverse is true as well: if the provicne of Aceh were to become independent from Indonesia, it would likely destabilize the situation in Mindanao as well as in certain Malaysian provinces. With the new attention to extremist groups and their links for foreign terrorists, none of the central governments is likely to advocate, much less allow, independence, not only for national unity but also for fear of creating greater instability in the region.
washingtonpost.com:
That wraps up today's show. Thanks to everyone who joined the
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