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On Tuesday Maine, North Dakota, South Carolina and Virginia will host their statewide primaries. Which Republican will be nominated to take on South Carolina Gov. Jim Hodges? Will Virginia Senator John Warner have a tough race in November? How will green party candidate Jonathan Carter affect the Maine gubernatorial race?

Congressional Quarterly managing editor for politics Bob Benenson, along with other CQ reporters, was online to discuss Maine, North Dakota, South Carolina and Virginia politics, the primary season and the 2002 election.

The transcript follows.

Editor's Note: Washingtonpost.com moderators retain editorial control over Live Online discussions and choose the most relevant questions for guests and hosts; guests and hosts can decline to answer questions.

Oklahoma Senate Race: With the tight Senate causing intense focus on many races, I have been suprised that little attention has been given to the Inhofe-Walters race in Oklahoma. It seems like this race is far more competitive than the races in Maine or Oregon that recieve national attention regularly. Do the Democrats have a chance to make a "stealth" pickup here?

Congressional Quarterly: Mary Clare Jalonick: We have that race ranked "safe" for Inhofe, though some Democrats have tried to assert that Inhofe is vulnerable. We'll watch it as the campaign season plays out, but I don't think it's one of the more competitive races this year. Former Gov. David Walters has some baggage - in 1993, he pled guilty to a misdemeanor account involving excessive contributions to his 1990 campaign.

Commack, N.Y.: What are the chances the Democrat Dario Herrera will win the new congressional seat in Nevada. I have heard that he is the establishment's favorite, but that he has recently run into trouble. What is the update?

Congressional Quarterly: Mary Clare Jalonick: We have this race ranked as "no clear favorite" - it's been neck and neck from the start. Herrera, a Clark County Commissioner who is 28 years old, is an extremely aggressive campaigner, and was out of the gate really quickly. Republicans hoped that some ethics charges (at issue was a public relations contract he made with the Las Vegas Housing Authority) would temper his campaign, and they probably have set him back a bit. Porter is a more low key campaigner, but still has a good chance in this swing district - Rudy Giuliani was recently in Las Vegas stumping for him. The 3rd, which forms sort of a pinwheel around Las Vegas, was created in redistricting to equally favor Republicans and Democrats.

Laurel, Md.: Maine and North Dakota are two states whose new college graduates mostly leave the state because their economies are based around low-tech, non-growth industries (fishing, timbering and tourism in one case, agribusiness in the other). Is building a more modern economy an important issue in those places?

Congressional Quarterly: Daphne Retter: Yes. Maine's races for governor, Senate and the 2nd Congressional district have all tapped into this issue as something close to Mainers' hearts. Rep. John Baldacci, Democratic candidate for governor, has television ads that focus entirely on keeping "our chidren" in Maine. Even Jonathan Carter, Green Independent candidate for governor, has spent time talking about ways to bring jobs to Maine. The candidates in all three elections seem to agree that Maine's taxes have to come down for residents and businesses to stimulate growth.

Adam Graham-Silverman: In North Dakota, the new farm bill has been the focus of much of the year's politics. Though there is hope of bringing business to the state, supporting the family farmer is de rigeur.

Alexandria, Va.: A lot of Democrats here in the eighth district are fed up with James P. Moran. He gave a vitriolic anti-Israel speect to the American Muslim Council, he called on President Clinton to resign in 1998, and he received $25,000 from a lobbyist under suspicious circumstances.

Has anyone ever unseated a Virginia Democratic congressmsan in a primary?

Is there any hope of us Democrats someday freeing ourselves from Boss Moran, or is the power of the incumbent overwhelming?

Congressional Quarterly: Greg Giroux: I can't recall the last time any U.S. House member from Virginia -- Democrat or Republican -- was defeated for re-election in a primary. I believe Moran was the last person to unseat a Virginia incumbent in the general election -- Republican Stan Parris in 1990.

The 8th District, which includes Alexandria and Arlington, is so heavily Democratic (and was made even more so in redistricting) that the only real contest for U.S. House is in the primary. I don't see Moran as highly vulnerable in Democratic circle right now (any liabilities his opponents attribute to him are not great enough to endanger him in a general election), and it would probably take a well-funded, well-known Democrat to win a primary or convention against him.

Vienna, Va.: Is Jay Katzen serious about challenging Rep. Rick Boucher? He was a terrible candidate for Lt. Governor. He's never lived in the district, where many families go back 200 years or more. Is he just nuts?

Congressional Quarterly: Greg Giroux: It will be a very, very difficult race for Katzen, who represented a north-central Virginia House district before recently moving to southwest Virginia to run against Boucher, who has represented the 9th District since his initial election in 1982. Katzen narrowly carried the 9th in his narrow loss in the 2001 Lt. Gov. race to Democrat Tim Kaine. I think Katzen is betting that the district's socially conservative leanings (Bush carried it by 55-42 percent in 2000) will give him a big boost. But Boucher is a skilled politician who has consistently outperformed Democratic presidential performance in the district. He votes with his district on some of the hot-button social issues like gun control. And Boucher has more than $1 million in his campaign treasury. So I think that Boucher is overwhelmingly favored.

Los Angeles, Calif.: How will Senate Candidate Dole's easy primary effect the general election for the Senate?

Congressional Quarterly: Mary Clare Jalonick: The fact that no primary date has been set in North Carolina (legislative redistricting has been held up in the courts, and the May 4 primary was indefinitely delayed) has had a profound effect on campaigning there, and is an interesting dynamic in the Senate race. Because Dole has no major opponents in the primary, she is laying low. This is good for her because she isn't spending too much money and doesn't have to weather too many attacks, but it could be bad for her because she isn't getting too much campaign practice at this point. Conventional wisdom is that the primary delay is good for Dole, though the Democratic nominee (who most expect will be Erskine Bowles) could have some momentum coming out of a late primary.

Concord, N.H.: Being an ex-Texan, I was wondering how the U.S. Senate race looks. Is this seat a lock for the Republicans as it was with Sen. Gramm?

Congressional Quarterly: Mary Clare Jalonick: I'm writing about this race today. It's definitely not a lock for Republicans - Democrat Ron Kirk, former mayor of Dallas, is a strong campaigner and will be a spirited challenge for the Republican nominee, Attorney General John Cornyn. A recent poll showed Kirk with 44 percent and Cornyn with 46 percent - though it must be taken into account that Kirk has increased name recognition from the Democratic primary. In fact, we are changing our ranking on that race today, from "Republican Favored" to "Leans Republican." Cornyn still has the edge, however, due to Texas' Republican lean.

Arlington, Va. (by way of New Mexico): How do you see the New Mexico 2nd district race going now that the primary is over?

Also, do you think GOP gubernatorial candidate can take on Bill Richardson? This is the first "big money" governor's race, and I would hate to see it turn out to not be the last. Why didn't Richardson run for Senate against an aging Domenici?

Thanks for taking the time to chat today!

Congressional Quarterly: The 2nd District promises to be a very close race. State Sen. John Arthur Smith was the more conservative of the two candidates in the Democratic primary, which will likely help him consolidate the district's conservative-leaning Democrats who have long helped send retiring Republican Rep. Joe Skeen to office. Former state Rep. Steve Pearce has a strong Republican base to grow from too. The race may depend on turning out Hispanic voters, who make up about 47 percent of the district and are traditionally Democratic backers.
Richardson's run for governor, rather than the Senate, may be an acknowledgement of a political reality: Five-term Republican Sen. Pete Domenici -- long the top Republican on the Senate Budget Committee -- has popularity in the state makes him almost unbeatable. But Richardson does stand a strong chance of taking the governor's seat, bringing in a large war chest and his popularity as a longtime House member and cabinet secretary.

Congressional Quarterly: Mary Clare Jalonick: oops, I made a mistake above - the North Carolina primary was supposed to be May 7, not May 4.

Austin, Tex.: What are Chellie Pingree's chances against Susan Collins?

Congressional Quarterly: Daphne Retter: In some ways that race has just begun, although Pingree has already spent more than $1.6 million. Collins' polling numbers put her still very comfortably ahead, but I would by no means count Pingree out. After the primary tonight, Collins' campaign will likely take off, answering some of Pingree's steady ads and personal appearances. Independent-minded Mainers are more likely than those in other states to change their minds based on coming events, so this race is still in play. Still, residents currently seem very content with Collins, based on her 78 percent approval ratings.

Reston, Va.: Do Republicans have any realistic chance of reclaiming the majority in the Senate? They only need a one seat pickup, but it doesn't seem like they are mounting enough winnable challenges to enough vulnerable Democratic incumbents to get over the hump. Do you agree or disagree?

Congressional Quarterly: Bob Benenson: When the partisan majority is as close as it can get -- one seat -- there certainly is an opportunity for the minority party to take over. But it is far from a certainty either. Both parties have their share of targeted seats, and both are well aware of which of their seats are being targeted. So, to use a dreaded sports analogy, it's all going to come down to the ground game -- who runs the most effective offense or defense in each of these contested races.
So far, CQ rankings do not favored the challenging party -- Democrats running for Republican-held seats and vice versa -- to take over any seats. We do, however, have two races, one for each party, ranked as No Clear Favorite: the South Dakota contest, in which Democratic Sen. Tim Johnson faces a serious challenge from Republican Rep. John Thune, and the New Hampshire election, in which Republican Sen. Robert C. Smith faces twin challenges: one in the Sept. 10 primary from GOP Rep. John Sununu, and then -- if he survives that challenge -- in the general election from Democratic Gov. Jeanne Shaheen.
The remaining races ranked as very or somewhat competitive by CQ are split almost evenly between the parties. Unless there is a pendulum swing that pushes this year's elections in favor of one party, we probably won't know until late on Election Night Nov. 5 which party is in control.

Concord, N.H.: How do you see the Sununu/Smith NH Senate race against Gov. Shaheen? Do the Democrats have a chance at picking up Smith's seat?

Congressional Quarterly: Greg Giroux: Yes, Democrats have a decent chance of winning the seat. CQ views Smith's seat as the most vulnerable Republican-held Senate seat on the 2002 ballot; we currently rank it as having "no clear favorite." Smith is vulnerable because of his near-loss in 1996, his departure from the GOP three years later to become an independent, and his solidly conservative voting record in a state that is no longer rock-ribbed Republican (it only voted narrowly for Bush in 2000). Sununu has been leading the priamry polls that I've seen, which may reflect some N.H. Republican voters' sentiments that he would be a stronger general election opponent against Shaheen, who is finishing her third two-year term as governor. But Smith's incumbency and fundraising should not be underestimated. The Republican primary is not until September.

Merrimack, N.H.: What is the outlook for New Hampshire's 1st Congressional district?

Congressional Quarterly: Greg Giroux: New Hampshire 1 race is one of a handful of races CQ rates as having "no clear favorite." That race is a tricky one to handicap because of the uncertainty of the Republican primary contest. There must be six or seven candidates in the GOP running now, while Democrats have rallied behind state Rep. Martha Fuller Clark. Democrats point to Fuller Clark's decent showing against John Sununu in 2000 (she lost 53-45 percent), her huge campaign treasury and that fact that the Republican primary is not until September. Republicans say that Fuller Clark is too liberal for the 1st, which exhibits a slight Republican lean but is politically competitive, and that her showing in 2000 was misleading because Sununu scarcely campaigned. One interesting note: as a a competitive New Hampshire Democratic candidate in a midterm election, Fuller Clark will be the beneficiary of campaign swings by her party's 2004 presidential hopefuls. Dick Gephardt has touted Fuller Clark many times in DC and NH.

Congressional Quarterly: Bob Benenson: Sorry... more questions than time again. Thanks to everyone who participated, and apologies to those of you whose questions we didn't get to. Next time, I hope.

Just one plug today: Please check out CQ's coverage of tonight's primaries in Maine and South Carolina, and our reporting on elections in all 50 states, on washingtonpost.com's OnPolitics site.

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