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On Tuesday Nebraska and West Virginia will host their state-wide primaries. Can West Virginia Democrat John D. "Jay" Rockefeller hold onto his Senate seat? Will redistricting influence the outcome? Who will win face Nebraska Governor Mike Johanns (R) in the fall?

Congressional Quarterly managing editor for politics Bob Benenson and reporter Jonathan Allen were online to discuss Nebraska and West Virginia politics, the primary season and the 2002 election.

The transcript follows.

Editor's Note: Washingtonpost.com moderators retain editorial control over Live Online discussions and choose the most relevant questions for guests and hosts; guests and hosts can decline to answer questions.

Arlington, Va: How can you guys possibly care about Nebraska or West Virginia? I thought the same thing when Alan Ehrenhalt dragged himself all the way to Alabama to meet with various felons, I mean public officials. Who cares about this stuff even there?

Bob Benenson & Jonathan Allen: Bob Benenson: Good afternoon everyone!
CQ covers congressional and gubernatorial elections in all 50 states, so we care deeply about the outcomes in today's West Virginia and Nebraska primaries. Granted, there is much less competition in those states than in many others. There is, however, a key race in West Virginia's 2nd District, where Republican Shelly Moore Capito narrowly won in 2000 -- the first GOP congressional victory in WV since 1980. The Democrats, who need a six-seat net gain this November to gain control of the House, are heavily targeted Capito for defeat this year. The primary candidates for their nomination are lawyer Jim Humphreys, a former state senator who lost to Capito as the 2000 nominee, and former state Supreme Court Justice Margaret Workman.
Even if there were no competitive races, though, we would have the obligation of informing our readers of that. Each state's contests are the building blocks that determine which party which control Congress.

Arlington, Va.: Is redistricting going to effect the West Virginia races?

Bob Benenson & Jonathan Allen: The West Virginia legislature left the congressional boundaries mostly intact, shifting Gilmer and Nicholas counties out of the 2nd District, which is represented by freshman Republican Rep. Shelley Moore Capito. Gilmer was moved into the 1st District and Nicholas was moved into the 3rd. Both counties voted for Democrat Jim Humphreys in the 2000 election, but the effects of their removal should be minimal. Neither of the state's two Democratic congressmen, Nick J. Rahall II and Alan B. Mollohan, have Republican opponents.

Alexandria, Va.: Is Congresswoman Berkely from Las Vegas safe? What about Rahall in West Virginia?

Bob Benenson & Jonathan Allen: Bob Benenson: We mentioned in the last response that Rahall appears a shoo-in for a 14th term in southern West Virginia's 3rd District. I have recruited our Nevada reporter, Mary Clare Jalonick, to provide her analysis of Shelley Berkley's re-election race.

Mary Clare Jalonick: Berkley is a target because of her 1998 race, which she barely won with 49 percent of the vote. But she did a little better in 2000 with 52 percent, and her district was made more Democratic in redistricting. However, Republicans say her opponent, Las Vegas City Councilwoman Lynette Boggs McDonald, could be her toughest yet, and Berkley has to constantly re-introduce herself to voters in the nation's fastest growing city. We have it ranked as "Democrat Favored."

Harrisonburg, Va.: The old thinking was that West Virginia was a strong Democratic state. Has George Bush changed that?

Bob Benenson & Jonathan Allen: Jonathan Allen: Voters in West Virginia, which has lagged behind other states economically and maintains a large blue-collar work force, have traditionally sided with Democrats. But some Republican candidates -- President Bush included -- have been able to appeal to socially conservative voters. Additionally, Bush spent a lot of energy in West Virginia, emphasizing popular issues like gun-owners' rights and his support of industrial laborers, which was reflected in his recent decision to impose a 30 percent tariff on steel imports. Nonetheless, both of West Virginia's senators, the governor, and two of its three House members are Democrats. Overall, it would be hard to say that West Virginia is no longer a "strong Democratic state."

Washington, D.C.: With California holding their primary on March 5, do you see other states having early primaries in the future?

Bob Benenson & Jonathan Allen: Bob Benenson: California, like many states, moved its presidential primary way up in calendar in order to have more influence on the nominating process -- and the state's other primaries, including for Congress, came with it, even in non-presidential years. Similar thing in Texas, which this year held the nation's second primary, on March 12.

This is not universally the case, though. Some states that have early presidential primaries nonetheless hold their other primaries on traditional dates later in the year -- some as late as September -- in presidential and non-presidential years.

One interesting thing we're going to have to watch is the impact of new Democratic Party rules that are likely to result in more states moving their presidential primaries up earlier than ever in 2004. If any of them also move up their congressional primaries, we could see some such contests held as early as February of that year.

Husker: Does Osborne even have anyone running against him?

Bob Benenson & Jonathan Allen: Jonathan Allen: Libertarian Jerry Hickman was the only candidate to file against Osborne, who is the prohibitive favorite. A Democrat has not held the seat in northwestern Nebraska in the last 40 years.

Omaha, Neb.: Not really a question, but my take on the key Nebraska races. I was glad to see the Post providing some space to discuss these races!

The incumbent govenor, Republican Mike Johanns, is running against a no-name in today's primary, Robert J. Wicht. It is expected that he will face Democrat Stormy Dean in November. Dean is running against a bigger no-name of Luis Calvillo. I expect that Johanns will win reelection in November.

The Democrats have two competing in the primary for U.S. Senate, Al Hamburg and Charlie Matulka. I'm not sure who will win this primary, but Chuck Hagel is unopposed in the Republican primary for relection. I believe he will be reelected. If anything many Republicans who voted for Ben Nelson in 2000 are regretting their decision in light of the Democrats' one vote lead in that chamber.

In the second congressional district, incumbent Republican Lee Terry and Democratic challenger Jim Simon are unopposed in their primaries. I am hoping that Terry will be reelected, but Omaha could swing pro-Democratic. I'm not sure about the first congressional district around Lincoln, but in the third congressional district, former University of Nebraska football coach Tom Osborne will be reelected easily.

If anyone is interested in the races of Douglas county, you may visit the Election Commission.

The Omaha World Herald expects a low turnover due to the lack of competitive races.

Right now, I'm still trying to research the local issue candidates. It is so hard to make an informed decision about candidates for Sheriff, School Boards, etc. since these people generate so little news.

Thank you!

Bob Benenson & Jonathan Allen: Jonathan Allen: Thank you for your analysis of the Nebraska races. CQ currently ranks Sen. Hagel, Gov. Johanns and Reps. Bereuter, Osborne and Terry as "safe," but we will be following these contests throughout the campaigns to determine whether any of them are becoming competitive. The contest in which that appears most likely is the 2nd District House race, where Jim Simon, a former AOL employee and a member of the family that owns Omaha Steaks, is running unopposed for the Democratic nomination.

Annapolis, Md.: Are there any Democratic incumbents in serious trouble besides the ones ousted in redistricting?

Bob Benenson & Jonathan Allen: Bob Benenson: The most endangered Democratic incumbent, according to our current CQ rankings, is Minnesota's Bill Luther. Redistricting is a major factor in his problems: the remap reconfigured the 6th District, which he currently represents, changing it from a mainly suburban Twin Cities district to one that reaches through some rural areas to the city of St. Cloud; it also includes the home of Republican Rep. Mark Kennedy, who is running there. So Luther announced yesterday (Monday) that he is running instead in the 2nd District, which is more suburban but somewhat Republican-leaning; he faces a third consecutive race with Republican John Kline, who he beat narrowly in 1998 and 2000. CQ currently ranks this race No Clear Favorite.
In the next most competitive category, Leans Democratic, are 10 Democratic incumbents: Karen L. Thurman of Florida, Julia Carson and Baron P. Hill of Indiana, Leonard L. Boswell of Iowa, Ken Lucas of Kentucky, Rush D. Holt of New Jersey, Earl Pomeroy of North Dakota, Jim Matheson of Utah, Rick Larsen of Washington and Tammy Baldwin of Wisconsin. Redistricting is having an impact on the races involving Thurman, Carson, Boswell, Matheson and possibly Larsen.

Bethesda, Md.: How do Democrats feel about their chances of defeating Shelley Moore Capito?

Bob Benenson & Jonathan Allen: Jonathan Allen: While the spoils of incumbency and the changes that were made to her district -- two counties were removed and both supported her opponent in 2000 -- are likely to benefit Capito, the absence of President Bush at the top of the ticket is certainly boosting Democratic hopes. Capito won 49 percent to 46 percent in 2000, which Democrats note was well behind Bush's 54 percent to 44 percent victory in the district.

Reno, Nev.: Could someone please tell the East coast media that the middle 'a' in "Nevada" is pronounced like "Apple", not 'a' as in "Avocado."

Drives us crazy out here to hear our fine states' name butchered all the time.

Bob Benenson & Jonathan Allen: Bob Benenson: We print guys are lucky -- we only have to spell the state names correctly. There are several examples of state-particular pronunciations. Is it Missour-ee or Missour-ah? My wife insists that most folks back home pronounce Illinois "El-ih-noy" (and never, ever Ill-ih-noyz). And we will, of course, be covering the Or-gun primary next week, not the Ore-a-gon primary.
I'll do what I can to set those tv guys straight.

Alexandria, Md.: Two of the most liberal Republicans in Congress, Connie Morella (Md.) and Nancy Johnson (Conn.), are in very tough races. How are liberal groups reacting? They had supported Morella and Johnson in the past, but with such a close party balance in the House, and with so few competitive races, those seats could make the difference between Speaker Denny Hastert and Speaker Dick Gephardt.

Bob Benenson & Jonathan Allen: Bob Benenson: Races such as the ones you mentioned are going to be a tough call for liberal activist groups that have always found a handful of moderate-to-liberal Republicans to favor. Morella, for example, is highly vulnerable this year after winning with 52 percent of the vote in 2000 -- breaking a long run of landslide victories. And liberal groups that have backed her in the past are in a quandary, since she has continued to vote their way on most of their key issues. Some groups are considering endorsing both her and her Democratic opponent this fall. In another situation, environmentalists are concerned about a draft redistricting plan in New York that would force two of their key supporter -- Democratic Rep. Maurice Hinchey and Republican Rep. Sherwood Boehlert -- to run against each other; that plan is only preliminary and could change though.

Fairfax, Va.: Do you think that Capito's father's past will ever come back to haunt her? And what role will the recent decision on mountain infills and the Bush outcry against it play?

I know a lot of folks in the mountains who are a bit tired of seeing homes swept away every few years because of clearcutting and strip mining, and seeing mining companies getting away without paying corporate taxes while schools are literally falling in on themselves.

Bob Benenson & Jonathan Allen: Jonathan Allen: Despite Arch Moore's legal troubles, he was a tremendously popular figure. Stories about Capito in 2000 mentioned her father's legal troubles, but they did not seem to have a negative impact on her electability. Nothing has changed about his past since then, so it is unlikely that will have a big impact on this year's election.

The battle between industry and environmental groups has been going on a long time. It is unclear at this point what effect that decision will have on the November election, but those who side with industry have outweighed those who side with environmentalists in past West Virginia elections. The weight of public opinion in the wake of the mountaintop removal case is hard to measure at this point and its impact in an off-year election in which turnout is expected to be low is something that political analysts will be watching this year.

Arlington, Va.: How surprised were you by Rep. Tom Sawyer's primary defeat? Was this an isolated case or are more incumbents likely to go down? Is the NRA justified in claiming credit for knocking off Sawyer?

Bob Benenson & Jonathan Allen: Bob Benenson: It was clear that Ohio Democrat Sawyer was in political trouble as soon as the redistricting map was released. Running in the drastically redrawn 17th District, he retained very little of his current 14th District, based in Akron. But the wide margin of his defeat by state Sen. Tim Ryan was something of a surprise, especially since Ryan shared a political base, in the part of the district that was new to Sawyer, with another state legislator who was bidding for the House seat.

Given the wide margin of defeat, it would seem that the NRA'S endorsement of Ryan over Sawyer might be only one of several factors in Sawyer's defeat. Probably the number one factor was that redistricting plan: about two-thirds of the voters had never been represented by Sawyer (most were from the district represented by Democrat James Traficant, who is running this year as an independent in the 17th District despite his recent federal conviction on corruption charges. The fresh face presented by Ryan, who is just 28 years old, was a factor. So was the fact that some local unions, who had never forgiven Sawyer for voting in 1993 for the North American Free Trade Agreement, endorsed against him in the primary.

The NRA may have a stronger claim about Bush's victory in West Virginia in 2000 (in answer to another question). West Virginia, despite its Democratic-voting traditions, has a somewhat conservative lean on social issues, including gun ownership. Hunting is a major part of the social fabric in much of West Virginia, particularly but not exclusively in its rural communities. So the fact that the NRA worked hard in West Virginia to portray Bush as pro-gun and Democratic nominee Al Gore as anti-gun was at least a contributing factor in Bush's win, the first in West Virginia for a Republican presidential nominee since 1984.

Bob Benenson & Jonathan Allen: Bob Benenson: We'd love to go on, but we've got to get back to the daily grind. Thanks to all of you who submitted questions, and apologies to those whose questions we didn't get to. We'll be back soon, if the good folks at washingtonpost.com will have us. Look for our news stories, including tonight's coverage of the West Virginia and Nebraska primaries, on washingtonpost.com's OnPolitics site.

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