Washingtonpost.com: Live Online

On Tuesday Illinois will host their state-wide primary. Can Roland Burris or Paul Vallas beat Rep. Rod R. Blagojevich for the Democratic gubernatorial nomination? After 26 years of Republican control, do the Democrats have a shot at the governor's mansion? How has the federal investigation of outgoing Governor George H. Ryan effected the race?

Congressional Quarterly managing editor for politics Bob Benenson and reporter Gregory L. Giroux were online to discuss the Illinois, the primary season and the 2002 election.

The transcript follows.

Editor's Note: Washingtonpost.com moderators retain editorial control over Live Online discussions and choose the most relevant questions for guests and hosts; guests and hosts can decline to answer questions.

Chicago, Ill.: How's this for a political strategy? Lt. Gov. Corinne Wood wooes everyone but Republicans to vote for her in the primary -- and yet she's running as a Republican. What gives?

Bob Benenson & Gregory L. Giroux: It's true Wood has been aggressively courting the votes of abortion rights supporters and moderate voters regardless of political identity. She's well behind in the polls to the more conservative Ryan and she wants independents and Democrats to "pull" a Republican ballot and vote for her. Not a typical Republican primary strategy, but she hopes that voters see her as the most electable Republican in a state that leans Democratic.

Harrisburg, Pa.: Machine politics in Chicago is legendary. That is my question: is it a legend or is there still life in the Chicago political machine? What impact do ward leaders and committeepeople have in Illinois politics?

Bob Benenson & Gregory L. Giroux: It is more legend today than reality, but that is true of machine politics just about everywhere. Some reasons: The weakening of voters' allegiance to party, the growth of independent political movements (such as the one in Chicago that produced the city's first African-American mayor, Harold Washington, in the 80s), the reduction of the traditional ethnic enclaves where machine politics held its greatest sway (because of suburbanization) and tougher ethics laws that reduced the party machine's ability to provide jobs and other patronage. But there are some vestiges of the old machine in Chicago: For example, Congressman Bill Lipinski still runs a very effective Democratic organization as committeeman for Chicago's 23rd Ward. And while longtime Mayor Richard M. Daley is not a great political "boss" like his late father, Richard J., his endorsements still carry a lot of weight..... Bob

Pittsburgh, Pa.: In the race for the Democratic nomination for Governor in Illinois, which candidate has Labor support? And if Ronald Burris is the Democratic nominee, can he unite the Democrats?

Bob Benenson & Gregory L. Giroux: Blagojevich has most of the labor support. He has a wide lead among union households.

Burris, an African-American who finished second in the Dem primaries in 1994 and 1998, has not garnered much political support outside Chicago's sizable black constituency. He is not running a racially charged campaign, but he is winning overwhelming black support but little white support.

Kankakee, Ill.: George Ryan's four years in office were marred by scandal, but how would rate his overall job preformance as Governor?

Bob Benenson & Gregory L. Giroux: Dear Kankakee: Hope things are well in my wife's hometown. Were it not for the scandal -- which as you know was a carry over from his stint as secretary of state -- George Ryan's governorship might be better remembered for a couple of bold initiatives: his capital punishment moratorium invoked after several Death Row inmates were exonerated, and his campaign to loosen restrictions on trade of farm products to Cuba. Those are not uncontroversial measures, and Ryan, like most governors, has had to deal with budget problems exacerbated by the recession. But I don't think there's much doubt that he would be seeking a second term if it were not for the damage done by the scandal....Bob

Chicago, Ill.: It isn't possible for you beltway folks to fully appreciate how distasteful many of us find the candidacy of Rahm Emanuel. I supported Clinton, and actually I happened to go to school with Rahm, and I can tell you this man is as sleazy as they come. Not only a carpetbagger, but with deep pockets, having grown up on the posh North Shore and made millions off the backs of a company that fired thousands of employees. It sounds as if you've studied the elections here more than I have, and I'm wondering what your educated guess is about the outcome of this key race? Thank you.

Bob Benenson & Gregory L. Giroux: Your sentiments are shared by Nancy Kaszak, Rahm Emanuel's chief opponent in today's Democratic primary in the 5th District (located in northern Chicago and some suburbs to the west). Kaszak, a longtime community activist who lost the 1996 Dem primary for this seat to Rod Blagojevich, has argued that Emanuel is a millionaire carpetbagger with tenuous ties to the Chicago area (where Emanuel was born and raised). She's attacked him for helping shepherd NAFTA to passage as a senior adviser to Bill Clinton. But Emanuel has ample labor support, a truckload of money ($1.6 million raised through the end of February) and substantial political connections. It's probably too close to call right now..... Greg

Richmond, Va.: At one time, as many as a dozen states seemed likely to have competitive Senate elections. Now, most pundits say it's about six -- New Hampshire, South Dakota and a line of states along the Mississipi.
Any chance things will heat up again in places like Georgia, Louisiana, New Jersey, Alabama, Colorado or North Carolina?

Bob Benenson & Gregory L. Giroux: Six seems a little thin to us. Congressional Quarterly is currently ranking 11 races -- six for Republican-held seats, five for Democratic-held seats -- in our two most competitive categories. In fact, the group grew by one within the past couple of weeks, when Tennessee GOP Sen. Fred Thompson, a shoo-in for re-election, decides unexpectedly not to run this year. I'm sure most folks heard the little two-day speculation frenzy about Tipper Gore that ended Sunday when she said she wouldn't run for the Tennessee seat. But Bob Clement, the 7-term congressman who is the putative Democratic nominee now, should make a strong run against the winner of the GOP primary, ex-Gov. Lamar Alexander or Rep. Ed Bryant.
As for the rest of the races, we see Democrat Tim Johnson of South Dakota, who is being challenged by GOP Rep. John Thune, and Republican Robert C. Smith of New Hampshire, who has a primary challenger in Rep. John Sununu and a top-flight Democratic challenger in Gov. Jeanne Shaheen, as the most endangered incumbents. Democrats also will be making runs at Republican incumbents Tim Hutchinson of Arkansas, Wayne Allard of Colorado and Susan Collins of Maine, and the seat left open by North Carolina's Jesse Helms. Republicans are going after Democratic incumbents Max Cleland of Georgia, Tom Harkin of Iowa, Paul Wellstone of Minnesota and Jean Carnahan of Missouri. There are a handful of races on both sides that appear long shots for now.... Bob

Peoria, Ill.: Though Illinois leans Democratic, it has elected Republican governors for quite some time. Of course, the policies of those Republican governors aren't always conservative (such as George Ryan's moratorium on the death penalty). What, in your opinion, accounts for the succession of Republican governors in a moderate-to-Democratic leaning state?

Bob Benenson & Gregory L. Giroux: It is true that Illinois leans Democratic -- in presidential races. Clinton easily carried the state twice, and Gore won there decisively in 2000, thanks to strong showings in the once dependably Republican suburbs outside Chicago (Clinton carried Lake County north of Chicago). But it is pretty much a "swing" state, as the GOP controls the state Senate, Dems control the state House and the congressional delegation is split 10-10 (and could be 10-9 for the GOP after the 2000 election).

Republicans have had a run of strong gubernatorial candidates who were adept at seizing the middle ground -- Jim Thompson, who won in 1976, 1978, 1982 and 1986; Jim Edgar, who won in 1990 and 1994; and George Ryan, who won in 1998. Edgar supported abortion rights, for example, and Ryan may have been helped in the suburbs with his support for some gun control measures. Ryan's 1998 opponent, Democrat Glenn Poshard, had trouble getting his campaign on track and he did not really galvanize Democratic voters.
Many of those races have been close, but Dems have not won a gubernatorial election in Illinois since 1972.... Greg

Chicago, Ill.: Timely discussion, as I'm leaving to vote now. Two questions: What are your predictions for the Attorney General race? Do you think there is much interest nationally for the new voting machines (which are supposed to eliminate those pesky hanging chads)? Thanks!

Bob Benenson & Gregory L. Giroux: I'm afraid that the focus of our election reporting at CQ is almost entirely on congressional and gubernatorial elections, and that we do not normally cover "down-ballot" state elections. There appears to be some strong interest in the state attorney general's race and the lieutenant governor's race, from the questions we have received, but we will avoid the pundits' trap of trying to act like we know what we're talking about when we don't. Just don't want you folks to feel dissed.... Bob

Washington, D.C.: Is the White House playing any role in this election like they had in California?

Bob Benenson & Gregory L. Giroux: If President Bush's strategists are involved in the Illinois race, it is in a much low-profile way than they were in California. In that contest, the White House encouraged the candidacy of ex-Los Angeles Mayor Richard Riordan, a moderate who some saw as the Republicans' best (or only) hope of breaking a GOP losing streak in increasingly Democratic-voting California. But Riordan ran a dismal campaign and was upset by businessman Bill Simon. It's not clear to what extent the strongly conservative Republican voting base just liked Simon (and/or disliked Riordan), and to what extent they were trying to send a message to Washington to butt out. But it is likely that any further kibitzing by the White House in GOP primaries will take a much quieter form..... Bob

Arlington, Va.: I know this does not have to do with Illinois, but what is your reaction to the news that Jane Swift dropped out of the Massachusetts governor race?

washingtonpost.com: Massachusetts Governor Swift Drops Election Bid (Post, March 19, 2002)

Bob Benenson & Gregory L. Giroux: The Massachusetts governors' race has to be seen in a completely different context now. The Republicans will now be defending the seat -- their only stronghold in overwhelmingly Democratic Massachusetts -- with a rising star, US Winter Olympics Committee chief Mitt Romney, rather than a struggling incumbent, Jane Swift.
Swift has never recovered from her rocky debut in state politics. A former state legislator elected lieutenant governor on the ticket with Republican Gov. Paul Cellucci in 1998, she received damaging flak for her personal use of state vehicles and staff. She also suffered from rotten timing, becoming governor in early 2001 -- Cellucci had become President Bush's ambassador to Canada -- just as a long economic boom turned into a recession and sparked a state budget crisis.
Romney, fresh off the success of the Winter Olympics in Salt Lake City, was courted by GOP officials as their political savior. But whether that's enough to project him as the general election favorite is unclear. Polls currently are positive, but will the bloom on the rose last for another eight months, especially when the state's dominant Democrats start questioning his policy prescriptions?
Romney, a wealthy businessman, has run statewide before, in a 1994 Senate challenge to Democrat Ted Kennedy. The good news for Republicans is that Romney, then a political unknown, gave Kennedy his toughest re-election challenge ever. The bad news is that he still lost 58-42 percent in the best Republican election year in recent history.
In any case, it will be interesting to see if the Republican switchover puts pressure on the Democrats to thin a very crowded and competitive field for the Sept. 17 primary, which includes state Senate President Thomas Birmingham, former US Labor Secy. Robert Reich, state Treasurer Shannon O'Brien, ex-Democratic National Committee Chairman Steve Grossman, and ex-state Sen. Warren Tolman.... Bob

Chicago, Ill.: Looking forward to the 2004 Senatorial Campaign, do you foresee Jesse Jackson, Jr. challenging Senator Fitzgerald?

Bob Benenson & Gregory L. Giroux: Jesse L. Jackson Jr., who is serving his third full term in the House representing Illinois' 2nd District, is said to harbor statewide political ambitions. Carol Moseley-Braun, who like Jackson Jr. is an African-American liberal from Chicago, won the Senate seat in 1992 but lost narrowly to Fitzgerald in 1998. Jackson Jr. is a very visible figure in his own right and has pretty high name identification, so he would be a serious candidate. But I'm sure there are other Democrats who will seriously consider challenging Fitzgerald, who came to the Senate with a reputation as a strong conservative but has lined up with moderates on a number of votes....Greg

Chicago, Ill.: The GOP nomination for Governor has been incredibly nasty, with Wood carving up Ryan from the left and O'Malley from the right. Is there any chance that a third party candidacy might emerge after the primary, given the clear Republican rift?

Bob Benenson & Gregory L. Giroux: One of the really fascinating exercises in party politics (and human nature as well) is the "party unity" rally held almost immediately after primaries just about everywhere -- even if the contest was brutal. Happened in California, where the Republicans gubernatorial front-runners Simon and Riordan said miserable things about each other right up through primary day -- and then were photographed palling around at the unity event a day or two later. My bet is, regardless of how nasty the Illinois primary has been, the winner and losers will make nice afterwards.
Unless the losing candidates see themselves as the leaders of a popular political movement (not likely the case in Illinois) or as having no future whatsoever in the state Republican Party, it is unlikely that they will bolt after the primary. That's because: a) candidates who do that are inevitably labeled sore losers and b) they risk being blamed if their party's nominee ends up losing the general election.
As for a third party effort, our reading of state law indicates that it's pretty unlikely. Independent candidates had to meet the same Dec. 17 filing deadline as party candidates. So the only viable option left is to form a new party and get enough petition signatures by a June 24 deadline to qualify it for the ballot in this November's election..... Bob

Bob Benenson & Gregory L. Giroux: I'm afraid we have to go back to our day jobs now. Hope you enjoyed our tag-team political analysis. We had fun doing it. Hope to chat with you all again soon -- please look for our coverage of tonight's primary results on washingtonpost.com's OnPolitics site.... Bob Benenson and Greg Giroux, CQ

washingtonpost.com:

That wraps up today's show. Thanks to everyone who joined the discussion.

Stay tuned to Live Online:

Hollywood and Vine: Sharon Waxman at 2 p.m. EST
Brookings Institution: Iraq, War on Terrorism at 2 p.m. EST
Fighting Terrorism: Impact of Peacekeeping at 2 p.m. EST
Health Talk: Obesity at 2 p.m. EST

Did you know that you can follow more than one Live Online discussion at the same time? Just open another browser window and toggle back and forth between discussions! And, if you miss one, catch up with the Live Online transcripts.

Keep up with the latest in news, sports, politics and entertainment with washingtonpost.com e-mail newsletters.

NEW! Personalize your Post with mywashingtonpost.com. Get customized news, traffic, weather and more.

| |



	<img SRC="washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/liveonline/redesign/adv_discusssion.htm" width=125 height=110 border=0>