On Friday, March 22, at noon, EST, Senior Arts & Entertainment Writer John Horn joined us for a Live Talk on Oscar predictions and to chat about the Oscar culture.
Read the transcript.

New: During Live Talks, you can chat with the other audience members in MSNBC's News Chat.

John Horn was named a senior writer for the Arts & Entertainment section at NEWSWEEK in August 2000. He is based in Los Angeles. Horn came to NEWSWEEK from Premiere magazine, where he was a senior editor since 1998, covering the film industry. Previously, he worked as an entertainment reporter for The Associated Press and as a television writer for the Orange County Register. He started his career as an entertainment writer for The Los Angeles Times.

Horn has also written for The Nation and The Los Angeles Times Book Review and was a contributing editor at Buzz magazine. He was a 1996-97 recipient of a National Arts Journalism Program fellowship at the University of Southern California, and he sits on the NAJP's selection committee. Horn is a trustee of the Humanitas Awards, which honor humanistic movies and television programs and are given by the Human Family Educational and Cultural Institute.

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John Horn: Good morning and afternoon. There are only two days left until the Academy Awards, so let's talk about what is on everyone in Hollywood's mind--what Oscar parties am I going to get into? Seriously, let's start chatting about the ceremony itself.

Warsaw, Poland: Why do only commercial movies win the prize?

John Horn: Commercial movies are not necessarily guaranteed the top prize, and many smaller movies can do quite well in major categories. "No Man's Land," which hardly anyone has seen, is likely to win the foreign language Oscar, and Halle Berry could take the best actress award for "Monster's Ball," which was watched in its entire run by as many people as saw "The Lord of the Rings" in one night. Still, box-office bombs generally don't take the top prize, but by the same measure, "Harry Potter," the year's No. 1 film at the ticket counter, isn't even nominated for best picture.

Greenup, Kentucky: While Moulin Rouge certainly deserves its nomination for Art Direction, is it -really- Best Picture-worthy? The reviews weren't great, popular response was lukewarm, etc...

John Horn: I think "Moulin Rouge" could very likely win the Oscar for art direction and costume design and, if it's an evening of shockers, best actress for Nicole Kidman. It also has a chance for sound and editing. You are correct about the mixed reviews; but what separates "Moulin Rouge" from a movie like "A Beautiful Mind" is that the people who loved "Moulin Rouge" really LOVED it, and went back to see it three and four times. I don't think that was true with any other top nominee besides "The Lord of the Rings." I think Oscar voters recognize movies that can generate that kind of passion with moviegoers. Because director Baz Luhrmann was not nominated for best director (the biggest mystery of the Oscars), I think "Moulin Rouge" is unlikely to win best picture.

Sea Girt, NJ: I was under the impresion that the actor RussellCrowe was nominated on his acting in the particular movie, not on his current actions. Also the movie was not a biography, so why the scratching for the truth in Nash's life? His life does not get the Oscar if the movie does.

John Horn: There are a lot of questions about this topic. Of course Russell Crowe is nominated only for his lead role in "A Beautiful Mind." But the Oscar race is a lot like politics--sometimes the intangibles mean a lot more than the candidate. If Oscar voters think that Crowe as a person is not worthy of honor and recognition, that could change the way some people vote. And in the same way, Academy members who felt the movie sugarcoated the life of John Nash would be just as likely to penalize Crowe for being involved in a movie they consider less than honest.

Youngstown, OH: Are the winners going to be selected BECAUSE of the color of their skin?

John Horn: No. Again, many people seem interested in this issue. First of all, all of Hollywood's record in hiring and promoting blacks is abysmal. More often than you would think, a part that is written race-neutral is in fact written for white, and only white, performers. Will Smith can tell many stories about how this is true. So if people of color are not getting good parts, it's no surprise the Academy (which itself is largely white) doesn't have many chances to reward distinguished performances. That said, I think both Denzel Washington and Halle Berry are going to win this year as best actor and actress, respectively. That's not because they are black. It's because Washington was spectacular in "Training Day," and Berry was equally good in "Monster's Ball."

Ronkonkoma, NY: How long do you think the televised Oscar Award Show will be? (Your best guess: 8:30 to ?) What was the longest televised Oscar show and when?

John Horn: I'm going to say 3 hours and 20 minutes. But that's a blind guess. This year's Oscar show is produced by Laura Ziskin, an accomplished movie producer and studio executive who has made a mark professionally by keeping things under control-except, of course, with her "Anna and the King." At a recent lunch for the Oscar nominees, she implored winners to keep their acceptance speeches short. But, according to one person who was there, it took Ziskin nearly 10 minutes to say that. Cirque de Soleil will be performing in the ceremony, and word has it there will be a special appearance from former New York mayor Rudy Giuliani. So how short it will be is anyone's guess. The record: The 2000 show was 4 hours, eight minutes. In fact, I think it just ended.

Johnson City, TN:
It has been said (or rumored) that Marisa Tomei was undeservedly given an Oscar for her performance in "My Cousin Vinny." Some people argue that presenter Jack Palance read the wrong name and one of the other competitors should have received it. Are there safeguards to ensure that this sort of senario will not occur?

John Horn: Palance, who seemed confused when he read the winner, has long been rumored to have made a mistake when he announced Tomei's name in 1992's awards show. But the Academy has made it clear the right person got the award, and say there are provisions in case some presenter does in fact read the wrong name. The policy calls for the Price Waterhouse accountants (the only people on stage who know the winners) to rush on stage and make a corrected announcement. Given how boring the shows have become, it would certainly add some levity to the proceedings. But how would you like to be the "winner" walking up the stage, only to have to pull a 180-degree turn and scoot back into your seat? Maybe it would be more interesting if the accountants were from Arthur Anderson, who might not be able to find the list of winners.

Alexandria, VA: I thought Steve Martin was going to host this years Academy Awards. Why isn't he hosting and why did Whoopi Goldberg step in?

John Horn: Actually, Billy Crystal is who the Academy originally wanted to host this weekend's show, and Crystal was indeed asked to do it. But becuase he is making a movie, Crystal was unavailable for the several weeks of rehearsal required to stage the show. Some people thought Steve Martin would have been a good second choice, but the call instead went to Whoopi Goldberg.

Kerrysville, NY: Do celebrities attending the Oscar's worry about Joan Rivers bashing their outfits?

John Horn: They probably don't worry about it at all. It's not as if anybody takes Joan Rivers seriously, is it? The celebrities are probably much more concerned with finally being able to eat after fasting for two weeks to fit into their clothes.

Monterrey, Mexico: Hello ... who do you think will win the Oscar for Best Special Effects and Best Cinematography?

John Horn: Special effects: I'm going to take "The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring" over "Pearl Harbor." I don't think "A.I. Artificial Intelligence" has much of a shot. Cinematography is very tight this year, and there many people who believe Roger Deakins will win for his beautiful black-and-white photography for "The Man Who Wasn't There." Deakins won the top award from the cinematographers' association, which is a good prediction. But I am going to go with a longshot, Andrew Lesnie, who shot "The Lord of the Rings."

MSNBC.com Chat Room: Has 9-11 given the academy a more "rah rah America" approach for the ceremony?

John Horn: Probably so, but this will still be festive and funny. If Giuliani does in fact appear, you can also expect some array of film clips celebrating soldiers or firefighters or the like. My only hope is that no winner dedicates his or her award to the victims of Sept. 11, It will only look shallow and, in an odd way, self-congratulatory, as if the families of the victims really care what Hollywood award-winners think about their grief.

Denver, CO: With all Nicole Kidman's success this year and two stunning performances, why is Nicole so low down the ladder in terms of winning this year? Why wasn't her performance in "The Others" nominated for an Oscar but was for the Globes?

John Horn: What's amazing about Kidman is that was even nominated, having the temerity to make TWO good movies in 2001. A lot of people suggested she push one film over the other during the nominations balloting, fearful the vote-splitting between "The Others" and "Moulin Rouge" would cost her any nomination. But you have to remember that director Steven Soderbergh didn't favor "Traffic" over "Erin Brockovich," and still won the directing Oscar last year for "Traffic." (Unlike actors, directors can be nominated twice in the same category the same year.) I think she was nominated for "Moulin Rouge" over "The Others" because the first film was more risky: who else can sing, dance and die so well?

Jersey City, NJ: When will the Oscars get real film directors on the voting panel instead of these old aristocrats?

John Horn: The Academy does not reveal the demographics of its membership, but let's just say a lot its voters have qualified for AARP discounts for a long time. The real issue for the elderly membership is in special categories like foreign language and documentary film, where you must watch scores of films to vote for the nominations, and all of the nominees to vote for the winners. The only people who have enough time to do all of that are mostly retired, so movies like "Hoop Dreams" and "The Thin Blue Line" and "Roger & Me" don't even get nominated. Oscar winners are automatically eligible to join the Academy, so the more people like Steven Soderbergh and Matt Damon and Russell Crowe win awards, the younger the Academy will get.

MSNBC.com Chat Room: "Come What May" wasn't eligible for best song because it wasn't written for "Moulin Rouge." Is this Academy ule maybe going overboard?

John Horn: The song, in a different form, was in fact written for Baz Luhrmann's previous film, "William Shakespeare's Romeo + Juliet." Seems like "Come What May" should have been eligible, but the Academy is trying to make sure that older songs are not repurposed for new movies. So: good policy, bad result.

Hoboken, NJ: Hi John,

Do you see the ad hominem attack on the subject of "A Beautiful Mind" as the start of an Oscar-campaign trend? Have negative attacks on the subject of a film ever been successful in previous Oscar battles? And conversely, have movies ever won Oscars for best picture, best director, best actor, or other awards because the Academy voters had positive feelings about a real-life character portrayed in those films? Is there any possibility that the studios and public-relations agencies involved might establish--and follow--some standards of ethics for these increasingly expensive and visible campaigns for Oscar votes? Yes, I know that's more than one question, but here's one more: if the industry does not establish or follow some ethical standard for soliciting Academy votes, do you believe the value of Academy Awards might be diminished by such smear campaigns? Thanks as always for your excellent coverage of the film industry.

John Horn: One person's ad hominem attack is another person's legitimate beef, and reasonable people can certainly disagree over whether "A Beautiful Mind" was, at its essence, a truthful telling of John Nash's life. There are two kinds of criticisms that have been leveled at the film: One, that it ignores undisputed facts from his life (his divorce, his fathering a child out of wedlock, his arrest) and two, that it leaves out some of biographer Sylvia Nasar's vague speculations, such as Nash's sexual experimentation. The criticisms, both just and unwarranted, have certainly hurt the film, but not as much as "The Hurricane" was damaged two years ago. But in the latter case, "The Hurricane" was presented as 100 percent factual, when it was hardly so. The makers of "A Beautiful Mind" made it very clear early on that this movie was loosely based on Nash's life, rather than a documentary retelling of it. As for standards and ethics during the awards season-we're talking about Hollywood! Your question reminds me of the opening scene in "Butch Cassidy and the Sundance Kid," when Paul Newman is challenged in a knife fight by a much larger member of his gang. Before he is cut to pieces, Newman asks what the rules are going to be; when the giant throws up his hands in indignation, Newman attacks, and the fight is over. No matter how Hollywood tries to regulate the awards, subterfuge and lobbying will always have a place, I fear.

MSNBC.com Chat Room: With such a close race in many categories. Do you think that means it's been a good, bad or just a mediocre year for films?

John Horn: You can have close races with bad films just as you can have close races with good films. I think it was a pretty bleak year for movies, and am not confident 2002 will be much better. Good movies always have a way of surfacing, but the demands for profits and market share have reached such high levels that no one wants to take a risk on daring work anymore. Not a single company--no one--would release "Memento," and its makers had to distribute the film itself. "The Lord of the Rings" was approved by the very last studio writer-director Peter Jackson visited; had it not been for New Line, the film (and its two sequels) would not have been made. And 20th Century Fox and Baz Luhrmann certainly had many fights over the making of "Moulin Rouge." Truth is, it's a lot harder to make good movies, and that's not going to change any time soon.

Atlanta, GA: Would you please share your projections for the winners of best picture, animated film, director, actor and actress?

John Horn: If I were filling out an office Oscar pool ballot:
Picture: A Beautiful Mind
Animated film: Shrek
Director: Ron Howard
Actor: Denzel Washington
Actress: Halle Berry

If I were actually a voting member of the Academy:
Picture: Moulin Rouge
Animated film: Monsters, Inc.
Director: Peter Jackson
Actor: Denzel Washington
Actress: Nicole Kidman

Boynton Beach, FL: Does the Director of the "Best Picture" winner normally win "Best Director"? If not, how often does this happen? It only makes sense to me that these 2 awards go hand-in-hand.

John Horn: Ask Steven Spielberg.
He won for directing "Saving Private Ryan," but the best picture went to "Shakespeare in Love." Last year, "Gladiator" won best picture, but Steven Soderbergh won for "Traffic." It would make sense the two awards should go hand-in-hand, but in recent years voters seem to be splitting their votes to reward certain movies. That's why I think Peter Jackson has a chance to win best director, although his "Lord of the Rings" will likely lose to Ron Howard's "A Beautiful Mind" as best picture. But almost always the winner of director repeats as picture. So if Howard wins as director, it is likely "A Beautiful Mind's" night.

Sydney, Australia: Why is Russell Crowe such a target? he's head strong but recent events aside, last year Steve Martin was having a go at him during last years ceremony.

John Horn: I think he's more of a target for the media, which loves writing about trouble-makers, than he is within Hollywood. There's no question he can be very difficult, but he's also a very talented actor, and every studio in town would love to make a movie with him, even if they know there's bound to be a small peace-of-mind price to pay.

MSNBC.com Chat Room: Do you think that the failure of "Laagan" and "Amelie" to get Best Foreign Language flim is due to the fact that "No Man's Land" seemed like a more "serious" movie?

John Horn: France's "Amelie" and India's "Lagaan" are both nominated, and have many admirers. I think "No Man's Land" is a very good film, and given what is happening in the Middle East right now, could not be more timely. It's unfortunate no one in the general public has seen the film.

MSNBC.com Chat Room: Is extra security in place...like snipers on rooftops and cops in tuxedos for the event?

John Horn: The security is so tight even the nominees will have to show ID. All of the stores in the large (no: hideous) mall in which the Kodak Theater sits will be closed, and there will be security both all over the perimeter and in the theater itself.

South Pasadena, CA: How about some predictions for the less-talked about categories like cinematography, music and film editing?

John Horn: I think Roger Deakins ("The Man Who Wasn't There" and Andrew Lesnie("The Lord of the Rings") are the top contenders for cinematography. Original score: Howard Shore would be my choice for "The Lord of the Rings," but "A Beautiful Mind's" James Horner will get a lot of votes, Editing: "Black Hawk Down's" Pietro Scalia won the editors' guild award, so it would the safe pick. Dody Dorn for "Memento" is the longshot.

Fagan, ND: Does a nominee ever win an Oscar for a category that they don't deserve, but because of their lifetime work?

John Horn: Certainly. Jack Palance for "City Slickers?" Judi Dench for "Shakespeare in Love?"

John Horn: I have to go pick up my tux from the cleaners. Thank you for all the great questions. This will be an interesting show, and may the studio that did the least mudslinging win! Goodbye.

Andrew Cohen: Thanks to NEWSWEEK Senior Arts & Entertainment Writer John Horn for joining us for today's Live Talk. Come back again on Monday, March 25, when NEWSWEEK's B. J. Sigesmund joins us for another Live Talk to discuss the Oscars aftermath.