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The U.S. and China: Defining the Relationship
With Thomas A. Manning
Senior Fellow and Director for Asia Studies,
Council on Foreign Relations
Thursday, April 12, 2001; 11 a.m. EDT
The 24 American servicemen and women have been released from Hainan Island. They were held for 11 days after their Navy reconnaissance plane collided with a Chinese fighter jet over the South China Sea. The diplomatic crisis came to an end after the Bush administration sent a letter saying the U.S. was "very sorry" about the crew's unauthorized emergency landing at the Chinese air base southeast of Hainan and about the apparent death of the pilot of the Chinese plane, which crashed into the sea.
Robert A. Manning, senior fellow and director for Asia Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations, will be online Thursday, April 12, at 11 a.m. EDT, to discuss the relationship between the two countries and how George Bush will define it. "Now for the hard part ...," said Manning.
The Council on Foreign Relations is a nonpartisan membership organization, research center and publisher dedicated to increasing America's understanding of the world and contributing ideas to U.S. foreign policy.
A transcript follows.
Editor's Note: Washingtonpost.com moderators retain editorial control
over Live Online discussions and choose the most relevant questions for guests and hosts; guests and hosts can decline to answer questions.
Silver Spring, Md.
I read a number of on-line newspapers such as Washington Post, New York Times, USA Today, LA Times and I watch a number of political talk shows such as Face the Nation, Meet the Press, ABC This Week, McLaughlin Group. I have the impression that many newspaper editors/reporters and talk show hosts/guests report or talk U.S.-China relationship without doing their homework. How much homework should they do?
Robert A. Manning: You are right. One part of Washington media culture is that when something becomes a "hot" issue there are suddenly thousands of instant experts. This is compounded by the 24 hour news cycle and gasbag talk shows in which the incentive for journalists is less to report than to opine, more one-liners, the better.
Given that China is perhaps the biggest single foreign policy challenge we face in the first half of this century, it seems to me that those wanting to opine ought to do a bit of background reading on the history, culture and status of China's current transformation.
San Francisco, Calif.:
What accounts for the aggressiveness and hostility by China's military and many of its citizens? This anti-U.S., anti-Taiwan sentiment has been called by some Mad Mao Disease.
Robert A. Manning: There are a number of factors shaping Chinese nationalism, which tends to be one of aggrieved, "anti" rather than for anything. There is the 150 years of humiliation at the hands of Western and Japanese imperialist domination of China. In many Chinese minds, Taiwan is the last vestige of this. Then there is the fact that history has been further unkind to China. In WWI they were on the winning side and got nothing. in WW2 they were on the winning side and got enmity during the initial stages of the Cold War. Finally, after being a quasi-ally from 1972 to the end of the Cold War, they got little benefit once again. One could understand Chinese wondering what they have done wrong, or is it just bad luck.
In short, there is a large perception gap.
Finally, the demise of Marxism-Leninism as a credible ideology has left the ruling CCCP with only two sources of legitimacy: economic growth and nationalism. There has been a tendency of late to play the nationalist card.
Silver Spring, Md.:
Did the U.S. lose face in this confrontation?
Robert A. Manning: I would say no. The letter walked up closeto the line of apology but stopped short of it, deftly expressing empathy. But the language allowed the Chinese leadership to save face by mis-translating it and declaring victory. I suppose this is diplomacy at work.
But the next steps will be important in answering your question, in terms of what conclusions are drawn and lessons learned.
West Hartford, Conn.:
Mr. Manning,
Isn't Bush between a rock and a hard place when it comes to China? If he goes ahead and sells Aegis to Taiwan, he risks a violent Chinese reaction and more crises. If he does not, he reaps serious criticism at home for weakness. If he cannot reach an understanding with the Chinese about future surveillance flights, he is in a similar position, either risking being accused of weakness or risking another encounter in the air.
Robert A. Manning: Managing Taiwan has been a rock-and-hard place issue since Kissinger crafted his wonderful political fictions in the initial communiques. The problem now is that the understandings that shaped the 1972 framework are no longer adequate becuase of Taiwan's transition to being a Democracy. Taiwan no longer claims to be the government of all of China. These understandings need to be adjusted to reflect reality. Unfortunately, so far, there has been little room for reality in Chinese policy. It weak, collective leadership has been unable to rethink its policy, even though it is a miserable failure. Taiwan is the third rail of Chinese politics and no one want to be responsible for changing it .
Alexandria, Va.:
Should the U.S. government try to pressure the Chinese military to follow certain rules when in international airspace/waters?
Robert A. Manning: Yes, absolutely. During the Cold War we developed pretty clear 'rules of the road' with Moscow. The reality of China andthe US military forces operating in proximate space is a new and emerging reality, and such understandings havenot really been reached yet. This is one topic that is supposed to be discussed on the 18th.
Alexandria, Va.:
Whatever happened to the early concept that the airplane had "American Sovereignty"? Was that American spin? Or did we lose that moral high ground when we send back the Russsian MIG in 1976, after a thorough examination, in boxes.
Robert A. Manning: That was always a contentious claim, based on an 1814 US Supreme Court decision made in regard to a French or Spanish ship. In reality, the plane is unflyable, and few inthe Pentagon expect to get it back -- other than eventually in crates.
Baltimore, Md.:
I'm curious that the media never actually covered maritime law (the Law of the Sea Act, I believe) with respect to borders or took the time to explain the general means by which faster, more maneuverable aircraft are required to avoid less maneuverable aircraft, for example. It seems like very little focus was given to law and this is what most countries are supposed to use to resolve disputes, no? Do you think the media failed to address the specifics of the actual event and used hype and emotion for ratings?
Robert A. Manning: No, while I don't think they did it enough, I do think if you read the major papes carefully, it was in there.
Fells Pointer:
It was interesting to see the coverage of their release. Many media outlets tried to resurrect the images of past hostage situations (Iran, Beirut) but this, to me, was not nearly as big a deal. We were spying on China. Our planes bumped into each other. And there was a short, yet tense incident. Do you think this is because America really does not see China as the bad guy? I don't think we have a national rivalry with them like we have had with countries in the past.
Robert A. Manning: I think American sentiments on China are mixed. They are not and will not be another USSR. There is no ideology driving global expansion. But China is a rising power, and absorbing them into the international system, as it always is for rising powers going back to Athens and Sparta, is always difficult. Apart from Taiwan, it is difficult to envision credible scenarios where we might be in an armed conflict with China.
But at the end of the day, it depends on whether China is an irredentist power (e.g. wants Taiwan back) or a revisionist power seeking to change the status quo more broadly rather than join it if treated with respect as a great power.
McLean, Va.:
I read at one point that China might want to wrap up the "hostage' situation before next month's meeting of the U.N. Human Rights Commission. Are there potential consequences awaiting China next month?
Robert A. Manning: No, the UN human rights commission has laready begun. This ordeal was dealt with on its own terms.
LA, Calif.:
The liberal media seems to be issuing uncharacteristic praise of the Bush admin's handling of the incident. Isn't this just code language for their relief that the multinationals whom they owe allegiance to, won't suffer any damage to their Chinese investments?
Robert A. Manning: No, just because the media are giving Bush credit, doesn't mean he didn't do a good job. Note that he was initially criticized from the left for being too hard, and then from the right for being too soft. I guess that makes him Goldilocks -- just right.
Alexandria, Va.:
As the U.S. military plans to continue flying spy missions off the coast of China, is there anything we can REALLY do to help keep our relationships with China from going bad?
(This does not even take into account the human rights issue.)
Robert A. Manning: We can devleop rules of the road for our naval and air forces operating in overlapping areas. More broadly, US policy should be designed to create a political environment that makes it as inviting as possible for China to make the right choices. IF they then define themselves as adversaries by their behavior, so be it.
Cambridge, Md.:
It is a good news that 24 Americans have been released and tensions between China and U.S. are eased, at least for now. However, in the long run, there are lots of problems between the two countries. For example, the coming arm sale to Taiwan, the continuing spy flights along Chinese coast, the human right issue, the WTO entry and the Olypics. Are you optimistic with the SINO-U.S. relationship in the future? What do you think the Bush Administration should deal with China not only in the interests of American, but also in the interests of the world. Thanks.
Robert A. Manning: I am somewhat pessimistic about US-China relations. I think there has been an accumulation of mututal suspicion and distrust since June 4, 1989 that is building and extremes on both sides are gaining leverage over respective policies. It also depends on what direction China goes, will economic reform create a larrge middle class that then demands momre accountabilitiy and pluralism as has happened elsewhere in Asia -- not least in Taiwan.
China is a global issue with its vote in the UN security council, its sheer size, its ability to pollute, and its border on 24 countries. US policy must factor in all these dsorts of complexities. That is why China policy is so unsatifisfying to all regardless of viewpoint.
NYC:
I heard on the news this morning from one of the servicemen's parents that had the US said it had done something wrong and had apologized for that, then China would have held our service people as criminals and tried them.
What information do you have about that and can you comment. Thanks.
Robert A. Manning: NO. the US expressed "sincere regret" and said it was "very sorry for the loss of life suffered by the Chinese pilot and the grief for his family and the nation. The US did not concede any guilt or responsibility for the plane collision.
Washington, D.C.:
It seems that the state-run Chinese media have incorrectly interpreted the letter to the Chinese people, allowing them to think the U.S. kowtowed, ate crow, etc. Is this likely to cause China to become more cocky as a country and perhaps more likely to act even more rashly in future altercations?
Robert A. Manning: The Chinese government controls the media, what do you expect. It is perfect spin control
Miami:
In one of your earlier responses, you spoke about nationalism. How does the Chinese government combat the "underground" communication of democratic principles and what happened in Tianenman Square with its nationalism push.
If the truth be known, do you think most Chinese feel the nationalism but prefer democracy?
Robert A. Manning: I think the Beijing government is fighting a losing battle in trying to control the internet and information explosion in general. I think there is a genuine sense of nationalism that Beijing can and does manipulate. But it is also true that this nationalism can be turned against them. Historically in China modernization has been viewed as science and democracy, and China's village elections have been generally successful and may be laying the basis for political reform.
Silver Spring, Maryland:
Is the U.S. using the same tactics of breaking up the U.S.S.R. to do it on China? I read that one major tactic was a fake SDI and another major tactic was that the US used China on the USSR's east side so that the U.S. can concentrate on the west side (Europe). If this is the case, will it work on China?
Robert A. Manning: There are some big differences, China has been called a civilization masquareadingasa nation-state. But the fact is it is 90+% Han Chinese. At the periphery, in Tibet, Xinjiang, and Mongolia are the weak links thatBeijing is nervous about.
Alexandria, VA:
Do you believe that the Chinese Foreign Minister's statement from last summer (I believe) that "war is unavoidable" means that China's just biding its time until it finds a sufficient cause/opportunity to engage Taiwan and the U.S. in military aggression?
Robert A. Manning: Actually, the statement is attributed to the Defense Minister Chi Haotian. Inevitable is a bit strong, though it certainly helps his claim to a bigger defense budget.
In terms of biding time. Bear in mind that China has a very different frame of reference in how they think of time. in a 3000 year old civilization, wiating 50 years is like asking us to wait 5 weeks.
McLean, Va.:
Will the 24 crew be allowed to fly along the Chinese coast again (in the event they are captured again) or will they be assigned other tasks?
Robert A. Manning: IT is not up to China to "allow" flights in international air space.
DC:
Why did the crew not bail out and have the plane crash in the ocean? This is a propeller plane and I would think the crew has parachutes, survival-at-sea gear, locational beacons, etc. For such a "high-tech surveillance" airplane, you would think they would not be so vulnerable to a forced landing in a "hostile" territory. I think I heard a Pentagon official say the water temperature was such that survivors could only last for a matter of hours. The South China Sea is warm though - 72 F.
Will the crew be considered heroes because of this ordeal?
Robert A. Manning: That's a good question. Perhaps they felt their procedures for destoryoing classified info and equipment minimized the damage and what was left did not merit risking 24 American lives?
Singapore:
Wasn't the spy plane inside China's 200 miles exclusive Economic zone without permission?
If so, isn't that a violation of the Law of the Sea?
Robert A. Manning: The 200 mile zone is for economic rights only. the LOS has a12 mile exlcusive territorial zone which the US plane was well outside of.
Robert A. Manning: I must log off now. I regret those question that time did not permit me to answer. This will not be the last crisis with China. Stay tuned.
washingtonpost.com:
That was our last question today. Thanks to Robert Manning, and to
everyone who joined us.
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