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Virginia Politics
With Larry J. Sabato
Friday, Nov. 30, 2001; 3 p.m. EST

Virginia Gov. James S. Gilmore III is leaving his post at the helm of the Republican National Committee after his party lost gubernatorial races in both his state and New Jersey. [Read the story.]

What does this mean for Gilmore and his future career aspirations? What does it symbolize for the Republican party and the Bush White House?

Political analyst Larry J. Sabato is the Director of the Center for Governmental Studies at the University of Virginia, the Robert Kent Gooch Professor of Government and Foreign Affairs and the author of over 20 books on various aspects of the political process. His most recent book is "OVERTIME! The Election 2000 Thriller," in which he delves into the intricacies of the 2000 national presidential election. A native of Virginia, Dr. Sabato is well versed in the history, tradition, and trends in Virginia politics, and he has authored numerous books on the subject.

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Vienna, VA: Dr. Sabato,

What could possibly have transpired in the past couple days, since Jim Gilmore said earlier this week that he intended to serve out his term as RNC chair?

Larry J. Sabato: My sources tell me that there was a meeting between Karl Rove and Jim Gilmore late in Tuesday. Gilmore was told at that time that his role as RNC chair would be restricted to public appearances and fund raising. It was on a take-it-or-leave-it basis. Gilmore wisely decided to take the hint and leave it. This had been building up for a year and was no great surprise to anyone involved.

Washington, DC: Basic Question -- How much power does the RNC chairman actually have in influencing elections?

Larry J. Sabato: When the party has a president in the White House, the RNC chair is not terribly important in influencing elections. Sometimes the RNC chair is not even consulted much by the President and the White House staff. That was the case here.

Fairfax, Virginia: What should the RNC have done differently in order to more effectively help the Republican Candidate for Governor in Virginia win?

Larry J. Sabato: The RNC provided plenty of money but it probably should have attached a few more conditions to the use of the money. Expensive consultants who are mainly interested in getting their piece of the rich pie usually don't help get a candidate elected. Grass-roots organizing wins elections far more than TV ads, though the consultants do not want you to believe that. Also, the RNC could have helpfully prodded President Bush to do his party duty and at least cut a TV ad or even show up and campaign for his candidates. He abdicated his responsibility there, and his candidates suffered as a result. 90% popularity doesn't do you much good if you don't use it.

Richmond, Virginia:
What does this mean for Governor Gimore's political future?

Larry J. Sabato: I am tempted to say, "what political future?" But politics is crazy and Gilmore is a very tenacious guy who may surprise us and find a way to resurrect himself. Then again, he may simply do what most former Virginia Governors of both parties do--go out there, cash in, and make a bundle in the private sector.

Greenwich, Connecticut: Who are the frontrunners to replace Gilmore and how is that decided?

Larry J. Sabato: It is President Bush's decision alone, even though the RNC members will vote on it. I'm sure that Karl Rove will suggest one or more names to the President. Former Governor Marc Racicot of Montana is a person that the White House is clearly interested in. Whether they can convince him to serve is another question. I suspect that Deputy RNC Chair Jack Oliver, who battled with Gilmore will stay at the RNC.

Cherry Hill, NJ: I think that Gilmore is being cast as a scapegoat for the losses in NJ & VA last month. How much fault lies with him, vs. the candidates themselves. For example, Schundler never connected with the voters here because of his stance on the issues. Is the Republican Party moving too much to the right?

Larry J. Sabato: You are correct that it would be unfair to blame Gilmore for the NJ loss. Most of that was Schundler, plus the division within the New Jersey GOP. But, Gilmore cannot escape responsibility for waht happened in VA. In the northeast, you are also correct that right-wing Republicans simply cannot win most statewide positions anywhere. If the GOP wants to win, it must nominate more moderate-liberal candidates in that region.

Richmond, VA: Prosessor Sabato:

Do your sources have any ideas on whether the Governor has been offered another position as part of the arrangement to leave the RNC?

Larry J. Sabato: I wouldn't hold my breath waiting for Gilmore to get a major appointment from the Bush White House. A minor appointment is another matter entirely.

San Diego, CA: Interesting point about Bush abdicating his position as Republican campaigner-in-chief. But can he afford to appear partisan? Isn't this status as a "war president" dependent on his not being seen to partisan? Isn't that the source of his 90 percent approval rating?

Larry J. Sabato: You make a good argument, but I disagree. The source of his 90% approval is the attack on America that occurred September 11, and his actions since. FDR had a similar approval rating for long time after Pearl Harbor, but he campaigned extensively for Democratic candidates in 1942 and beyond. Other war-time presidents have done precisely the same thing, and no one batted an eyelash since that is part of a president's role.

Penhook, Virginia: Larry,

Has the budget impasse in Virginia, political losses in the November elections and now resigning as Chairman of RNC damaged Gov. Gilmore as a future political candidate?

I worked at the polls for Mark Warner in the November 6th Virginia Governor's election. My election precinct is in a very upscale lake and resort community.
Many of the Republician voters told me "I am not voting against Mark Earley, but, against Jim Gilmore".
These were not just ordinary voters,these were people that normally make large contributions and work very hard to get Republicians elected in all elections.

Submitted by: Nelson Amos
89 Old Mountain Road
Penhook, Virginia 24137
Telephone 540-576-3410

Larry J. Sabato: Gilmore certainly had something major to do with Mark Earley's loss. I have not seen the poll, and I hate polls, but I have been told that a Republican exit poll taken November 6 showed that Mark Warner would have beaten the incumbent Governor Gilmore by 51%-49% (it may not be true, and it is certainly within the margin of eror anyway). However, let us not forget that Mark Earley and his key staff ran a truly awful campaign. He deserves a large share of the blame for his own loss.

White Stone, VA: Is Gilmore going to be a rain maker? What is his next job... seems like he has burnt many bridges.

Larry J. Sabato: The Governor has made no announcement, which is somewhat unusual. I am sure he will find lucrative employment as they all do. We elect them, and they cash in.

Oxford, Ohio (by way of Alexandria): With Gilmore out as RNC chair (as a Democrat in a heavily Republican college, I'm trying very hard not to laugh), who might be tapped to succeed him? Is it more likely to be a young gun, or maybe a member of the old guard like Bob Dole? And will it be another conservative, or is it possible they could put in a moderate in an attempt to soften the image of the party?

Larry J. Sabato: These are all good questions, and dozens of names are being mentioned. But the RNC members might well revolt if the nominee were not conservative. I doubt seriously that any old warhorse is going to be picked. The job is an exhausting combination of public appearances and fund raising.

Chatham, Virginia: Refresh me: Why did Bush ever pick Gilmore to begin with? What did he supposedly bring to the table that certainly escaped the attention of many Virginians?

Larry J. Sabato: The key date to remember is February 29, 2000. On that day the Gilmore organization produced a large victory for candidate George W. Bush over John McCain in the first-ever early Virginia Presidential Primary. This was at a time when Bush needed an additional boost. Gilmore earned a big chit, plus he and his Chief of Staff Boyd Marcus were friends of Karl Rove from Virginia politics in the 1970s. It all adds up.

Santa Fe, NM: Is there anybody else in trouble with the President who might be next to fall?

Larry J. Sabato: It is only year one. There will be some public hangings after November 2002 if the GOP does badly in the midterm elections, but probably not before then and maybe not even then.

Richmond, VA: I think the the President did not campaign on behalf of Earley and Shundler for 2 reasons: When the campaign started, Bush was not terribly popular, and seemed to be losing momemtum on many issues. Also during the early part of the campaign Warner and McGreevey built solid leads. I don't think Bush wanted to campaign for potential losers. What are your thoughts?

Larry J. Sabato: That makes sense for New Jersey, where Bush was never very popular, but it is not true in Virginia where he consistently has had a high popularity rating, even before September 11.

Vienna: Isn't Gilmore's resignation kind of irrelevant? When a party controls the White House, the White House controls the party. The party chairman is really a figurehead in that situation.

Larry J. Sabato: Basically you are correct, most of the implications are for Virginia, not the nation.

Galax, VA: Was Gilmore doomed from the start with this job? On one hand, his refusal to budge on the car-tax cut in Virginia largely led to Earley losing to Warner. On the other hand, if he did budge, he'd be the RNC Chairman who couldn't follow through on a tax cut in his own state.

Larry J. Sabato: Very perceptive. Actually, this job was a disaster for Gilmore. In part, he refused to compromise on the budget because he feared alienating the large anti-tax wing of the national Republican party if he backed down on the central promise of his 1997 campaign--to abolish the Car Tax. At the same time, Republican legislators in Richmond resented the Governor for "going national on them" and leaving them holding the budget bag. Becoming RNC chair was an ill-fated venture for Jim Gilmore.

Alexandria, VA: Would the RNC ever seriously consider a media figure such as Rush Limbaugh or Bill O'Reilly as a Chairman? Seems like they would be able to generate a lot of publicity and be effective making lots of public speeches for the party.

Larry J. Sabato: Anything is possible in politics, but I think this would only happen in a parallel universe.

Norfolk: What are Mark Earley's plans for the future? Is his political career over? Does he blame Gilmore for his loss?

Larry J. Sabato: Relations between Gilmore and his staff, and Earley and his staff would are not exactly cordial. By the way, the Republican candidate candidate for Lt. Governor, Jay Katzen, is if anything, even angrier at Gilmore than Earley is. As for Earley himself I believe he is also headed for a long, happy career in the private sector. Of course, that's what they said about Nixon in late 1962.

Pittsburgh, Pa.: Do you think Bush will get out there and campaign next year? As a Democrat, I hope he doesn't, he is a pretty good campaigner.

Larry J. Sabato: Bush will have to campaign. There is already significant private grumbling in Republican circles about a president who seems more concerned with his 90% rating than the success of his party candidates. That may be unfair, but Bush will have to prove the assessment wrong by campaigning extensively in 2002, whether he wants to do it or not.

Crozet, VA: Mr Sabato,
Do you think there will be any fallout affecting other Virginia Republicans due to Gov. Gilmore's resignation of the RNC?

Larry J. Sabato: George Allen and Jim Gilmore have been rivals for national attention. Even though the Allen staff would deny it, Allen and his people are today delighted with Gilmore's fall.

Richmond, VA: Why should Katzen be steamed at Gilmore?

Larry J. Sabato: The RNC did not give him any substantial money. If he had been better financed, Katzen probably could have made up the bare 2 point difference between Lt. Governor elect Tim Kaine and himself. The Gilmore folks were also less than kind in their private descriptions of Jay Katzen.

Alexandria, VA: Some of the names I've heard are Raciot, Mary Matalin, Ed Gillespie. Care to handicap on these name or others you've heard?

Larry J. Sabato: I have already suggested Racicot as someone high on the list of possibilities. Matalin and Gillespie are also highly regarded. Frankly, there will be no better political sport in coming days than the name-game for RNC chair. Have fun! I know I will!

Thanks for joining us today, and be sure to check out our Center for Governmental Studies website at www.goodpolitics.org

washingtonpost.com: That wraps up today's discussion. Thanks for joining us.

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