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Just when the Afghan war may seem to be ending, some experts believe it is entering the most dangerous phase for U.S. troops. In the weeks to come, military analysts and Afghanistan specialists predicted yesterday, U.S. soldiers will have to pursue members of Osama bin Laden's al Qaeda network and their Taliban allies through booby-trapped caves and remote areas strewn with land mines.

James M. Lindsay, former National Security Council staff and director of the Brookings Institution's "America's Response to Terrorism" project, was online to take questions and comments about the endgame in Afghanistan.

The discussion is part of a regular series developed by Brooking's America's Response to Terrorism project and washingtonpost.com to examine the key policy questions related to the U.S. fight against terrorism.

The transcript follows.

Editor's Note: Washingtonpost.com moderators retain editorial control over Live Online discussions and choose the most relevant questions for guests and hosts; guests and hosts can decline to answer questions.

James M. Lindsay: Thanks to all of you who have submitted questions. It is a pleasure to be doing a WashingtonPost.com chat. I will try to answer as many questions as possible in the next half hour. Please forgive any typos.

Arlington, Va.: Now that there's no Taliban and no Al Qaeda, why do we need to go looking through caves? surely, he'll surface if he's still alive. I think Bush should quit while he's ahead.

James M. Lindsay: U.S. and Afghan forces are looking through the caves for two reasons. First, they want to determine whether Osama bin Laden was killed in the recent fighting, and if not, to find information about where he might have gone. Second, they hope to find evidence in the caves that could help them track down Al Qaeda cells in other countries.

Toronto, Ontario, Canada: When do they expect to find and arrest Osama bin Laden?

James M. Lindsay: No one inside or outside the government knows right now. Mr. bin Laden may already be dead or he may have escaped from Afghanistan. If he has managed to escape, it could take weeks or months to find him.

Fairfax, Va.: India, misreading Bush administration’s signal, is taking advantage of the situation, massing troops around its border with Pakistan. In fact, today, Indian prime minister is openly discussing an invasion into Pakistan. Should it happens, would our government remain on the sideline or drive India out of Pakistan like we did when Iraq invaded Kuwait?

James M. Lindsay: Eighteen months ago on the eve of a visit to South Asia, President Clinton called the region the most dangerous in the world. That statement is even more true today. The recent terrorist attack on the Indian Parliament has understandably angered Indians, who blame Pakistan for aiding and abetting the attack. They ask, again quite understandably, if the United States can attack countries that aid and abet terrorists, why can't India? The obvious difference in this case is that Pakistan possesses nuclear weapons and Afghanistan doesn't. Look to see the United States put pressure on both New Dehli and Islamabad to cool off. I doubt the administration has thought up a game plan, or even wants to think up a game plan, for what to do if India invaded Pakistan.

Takoma Park, Md.: Good Afternoon,
Do we know how many civilians have been killed in Afghanistan? Where can we go to get this figure if you don't have it? Thank you.

James M. Lindsay: No one has a good figure on the total number of civilians killed in the bombing. All the figures you read in the press are guesses, nothing more. It will takes months before we have a good handle on the number of civilians killed. Even then there is likely to be dispute--the dead in more remote regions might not get counted and some of the supposed civilian dead could well have been Taliban or Al Qaeda fighters.

Rockville, Md.: Dear Mr. Lindsay,
It appears that Al Qaeda has been largely chased out of Afghanistan. But there is probably little reason to think it is dead as an entity. As such, it will likely set up shop elsewhere -- where might this "elsewhere" be? What would be likely destinations for this organization? Wouldn't most states fear U.S. wrath for hosting Al Qaeda? Are there those that would not care?
Thanks!

James M. Lindsay: There is a lot we don't know about Al Qaeda, so anyone's projections about the future should be taken with a grain of salt. It looks like the U.S. campaign has done to disrupt the leadership of Al Qaeda. The big question, and the one to which no one has answer, is the extent to which Al Qaeda is self-sustaining. How many sleeper cells are out there? What is the quality of the middle tier leadership? Obviously the more sleeper cells there are and the more capable mid-level operatives are, the faster Al Qaeda can reconstitute itself and the more deadly they will be when they do so. As to where Al Qaeda can go, the administration estimates that Al Qaeda operatives operate in somewhere between 40 and 60 countries. Countries with weak or non-existent central governments, such as Yemen and Somalia, are one place to go. But as the career of Mohammed Atta attests, Al Qaeda operatives can live, work, and plot deadly attacks while living unremarkable lives in Western countries.

Alexandria, Va.: Would it have been possible for Bin Laden to crawl alone to the bottom of a deep cave and kill himself there with only one or two other people knowing?

Is it possible that Bin Laden will end up like Martin Bormann the Nazi leader, who disappeared without a trace after the WWII?

James M. Lindsay: That's possible but suicide is forbidden in Islamic law, and given bin Laden's professions of deep Islamic faith suicide seems unlikely. As for the Bormann analogy, that's another possibility. If bin Laden were killed in an air strike it may be impossible to find any remains let alone identify them. But if he has escaped, we will eventually know he is alive.

Maryland: How will the U.S. and its allied forces help keep tribal leaders in Afghanistan from ripping the new coalition apart?

James M. Lindsay: That's the $64,000 question. Washington will use plenty of moral suasion and threats to block/withhold economic assistance to try to get the various Afghan factions to cooperate. It's not clear how much the contending groups will be moved by such threats. At the end of the day, the United States can push Afghans to make the most of their second chance at peace, but only Afghans can decide whether to make it work.

Hephzibah, Ga.: I haven't heard much about it on the news front, but how likely would it be that bin Laden has been killed by earlier bombing and that his followers have simply destroyed the remains to further confuse the U.S. effort ?

James M. Lindsay: Again, another possibility. There is simply too much confusion, and we are too far away from the scene, to be able to rule out many of the possible scenarios we could conjure up. The Pentagon has said, however, that it intercepted bin Laden radio transmissions as late as last Saturday. The implication is that DOD was able to determine that these were live transmission and not taped messages. For what it's worth.

Alexandria, Va.: As part of the war on terrorism the U.S. has taken some much needed steps against the Iranian/Lebanese Islamic terrorist group Hizbullah.

What if any was Hizbullah's involvement in the following terrorist attacks?: (1) the bombing of the U.S. Marine barracks in Beirut in the 1980s; (2) the attack(s) on the U.S. embassy in Beirut; (3) the seizures of Americans and other Westerners in Lebanon as hostages; (4) the bombing of the Israeli embassy in Buenos Aires, Argentina in the early 1990s; and (5) the bombing of a Jewish community center in Buenos Aires.

At the time of the attack on the Jewish community center some speculated that Iranian agents serving as advisors in Hizbullah had participated in the act. There was also speculation that local South American Moslems were involved.

How closely does Hizbullah work with Iran? Does Hezbullah have cells operating outside of Lebanon?

James M. Lindsay: Hezbollah has clearly been implicated in the first three attacks you mentioned. Hezbollah's primary base of operations is Lebanon and it is closely tied to Teheran.

Alexandria, Va.: Mr. Lindsay,
In addition to bin Laden and al Queda fighters, will US soldiers pursue Mullah Omar and the top Taliban that fled Kandahar?

I ask this question in light of the recent news that soon-to-be Afghan leader Karzai said his government would not immediately pursue these individuals. He stated that his government has "more pressing issues" to attend to, such as rebuilding infrastructure and schools in the country.

While physically rebuilding Afghanistan is obviously an urgent need, peace must occur before any real rebuilding can begin. It seems to me that capturing those who would pose a long-term (if not an immediate) threat to Afghanistan's peace should be the FIRST step in rebuilding the country, not merely an afterthought.

Thank you.

James M. Lindsay: Senior Bush administration officials have made it clear that they believe Mullah Omar should be brought to justice. They sharply chastised Afghanistan's soon-to-be transitional leader Hamid Karzai when he suggested that Mullah Omar could go free if he renounced terrorism. For obvious reasons of operational security, the Pentagon has not said exactly what it is doing, if anything, to find Mullah Omar.

New York, New York: Can you explain how the exiled Afghan king will help bring Afghanistan together? Why was he exiled and do the Afghan people really want a monarch back? Thank you for taking questions.

James M. Lindsay: Proponents of the return of Zahir Shah argue that he can serve as a powerful symbol for reuniting the country. Although he is a Pashtun, the country's largest ethnic group, he is acceptable to many ethnic Tajiks, Uzbeks, and Hazaras. No one is suggesting that the 87-year-old former monarch would wield any real political power. He was overthrown in the early 1970s by a relative.

Rockville, Md.: From articles in the Post, I understand that al-Qaida members lived with their families and may have taken them along when they into hiding in Tora Bora. What happened to those women and, possibly, children. Is it known?
Thanks,

James M. Lindsay: If Al Qaeda members took their families into the Tora Bora region with them, they are likely to have suffered similar fates. I have yet to read or see any media coverage that mentions the capture of women or children.

Chicago, Ill.: Greetings,
There seems to be an artificial dichotomy between military objectives and economic development.

The booby-trapped caves and minefields are the same physical spaces that need to be renovated as a part of mid- and long-term development. At least some of the caves are a part of the water system. The minefields are also where crops like wheat are grown.

A couple of years ago when I looked at the literature for a course on Relief and Development, a dialogue between the military and humanitarian agencies was beginning. Will the groups be able to function to collaborate or cooperate or coexist in each others' space in a way that benefits the Afghan population?

James M. Lindsay: The economic and political reconstruction of Afghanistan poses an enormous task. The country has been through 22 years of war and it shows the effects. Roads, aquaducts, canals, dams, bridges, and almost every other kind of infrastructure has been destroyed. Mines and unexploded ordnance are strewn throughout the countryside. (No one knows how many mines have been laid in Afghanistan--I've seen numbers ranging from 300,000 to more than 1,000,000--or where they all were laid.) To help get Afghanistan on its feet, a lot of cooperation among lots of organizations will be needed. How much cooperation is needed among military organizations and humanitarian agencies depend on how long foreign military troops remain in the country. They are likely to leave before the economic and political reconstruction gets very far.

Washington, D.C.: Does the U.S. seem to be getting any useful intelligence from captured Taliban and Al Qaida fighters concerning the whereabouts of Osama bin Laden? Presumably there must have been some assigned to protect him, and I'd imagine some of those captured would be looking for a way to improve their current situation.

James M. Lindsay: There is no way to know. If the Pentagon finds useful information, I suspect we will find out about it only after the U.S. military can take advantage of it. As for those assigned to protect bin Laden, traitors are always a possibility. But his guards no doubt were carefully screened, they would have to worry that if they try to turn on bin Laden they will end up dead.

Orono, Maine: There's been a lot of talk about what will happen to "American Taliban" John Walker. It's assumed the government will try to make a case for treason. But the Constitution makes it very clear that unless you get a confession in "open court," TWO witnesses to a single "overt" act are required to prove treason.

Given that requirement, do you think the government will be able to make its case? And if not, what is likely to happen to Walker?

James M. Lindsay: What to do with John Walker is one of Washington's top parlor games this week, surpassed probably only by the question of whether to make Iraq the target of phase two. You are quite right that the U.S. Constitution sets a very high standard for treason, and a reasonable prosecutor could decide that the Walker case doesn't meet the standard. (There have been fewer than 3 dozen treasons cases in U.S. history, and many of them ended in acquittal--think Aaron Burr.) But there are plenty of other charges Walker could be tried on, with seditious conspiracy at the top of the list. These charges carry serious jail time or even death.

Vienna, Va.: Have dogs been considered for use in Afghan Caves to find Al Qaeda, rather than risk human life?

James M. Lindsay: I haven't heard anything about dogs being used to comb the caves. My guess right now is that U.S. forces are relying heavily on high tech gadgets for exploring caves.

New York, N.Y.: Mr. Lindsay --

Do you think President Bush, just as his father did with Iraq's Hussein, erred on the side of caution when American troops were not sent into the Tora Bora region en masse to eviscerate the Al Qaeda forces and capture/kill Bin Laden? Because of our reliance on a 'proxy' army -- the Northern Alliance -- and our fear regarding American casualties, the Al Qaeda leadership and Bin Laden have gotten away, it appears. Casualties always occur in war; so let's fight and achieve our goals.

Did we fail? Do you think a greater troop commitment on our part would have produced far greater success?

James M. Lindsay: In keeping with a long American tradition, I expect a lot of second guessing on the question of whether we should have relied as heavily as we did on the Eastern Alliance. Without knowing what has actually happened to bin Laden, it is premature to argue that things would have turned out differently if there were more U.S. troops on the ground. One thing to keep in mind is that the Tora Bora area covers a lot of ground, and it's not clear that the United States could have gotten enough troops on the ground soon enough--and kept them supplied--to have made a difference. And it's easy to say we should accept more casualties when you are not the person responsible for that decision.

Oakton, Va.: I've read that when entering caves, east alliance soldiers have been throwing in grenades before entering. I thought one of our main reasons for entering the caves is to search for new evidence. Aren't we afraid throwing in grenades might damage useful information?

James M. Lindsay: I haven't seen the reports you are referring to, so I can't comment on them or their accuracy. U.S. forces clearly want to recover information where possible. And just as obviously, they don't want to walk into an ambush. I suspect that U.S. troops will use force when they have good reason to believe their lives are threatened. As they should.

Mt. Lebanon, Pa.: Well, in this current match in Afghanistan, it looks like the black King Osama has castled himself right off the chess board. Does the endgame in Afghanistan have any successful conclusion other than checkmating bin Laden? By checkmate we means Osama's head hits the ground and it doesn't come back to life in another session. (Please feel free to make reference to Alice's Red Queen should it seem appropriate.) Thanks much.

James M. Lindsay: The United States went into Afghanistan with several objectives: 1.) Destroy Al Qaeda operations in the country; 2.) Remove the Taliban from power; 3.) Capture/kill bin Laden and other senior Al Qeda leaders; 4.) Capture/kill Mullah Omar and other senior Taliban leaders; and 5.) Make sure that Afghanistan is no longer used as a haven by terrorists. For all the celebratory language in the news media in recent days, the United States has clearly achieved only objectives 1 and 2. Objectives 3 and 4 probably can be accomplished in the week and months to come. The real question is whether we can accomplish objective 5.

Fairfax, Va.: Why was Afghanistan never on the State Department’s list of “states sponsoring terrorism” while we have Cuba on it every year?

James M. Lindsay: A complex set of reasons, many which have to do with the inflexibility of the list. Once you get on, it is next to impossible to get off. Much of the value of the terrorism list comes in using it as threat. Comply with what we want or we will put you on the terrorism list. The Clinton administration was trying (and got) some cooperation from the Taliban in cutting opium production, and putting Kabul on the list would have interfered with those efforts. And I don't think many people realized until well after September 11 how intertwined the Taliban were with Al Qaeda. In some senses, the Taliban didn't sponsor terrorists, they were sponsored by terrorists. But back to the big picture. Even if the Clinton or Bush administrations had put Afghanistan on the terrorism list, it is doubtful that would have done anything to prevent or delay September 11.

Columbus, Ohio: Do you think it likely that either US Special Forces or Marines will be operating within Pakistan in the next 10 days?

James M. Lindsay: Could happen but the chances are slight--assuming we are not talking about straying a mile over border during a pursuit or things like that--especially without Pakistani approval. U.S. troops operating independently on Pakistani soil would create political problems for General Musharraf, and those political problems would multiply geometically if U.S. troops fired weapons and killed Pakistani civilians. More conceivable that U.S. troops would work in an "advisory" role with Pakistani troops, enabling Islambad to argue that it was a Pakistani operation.

James M. Lindsay: Thank you to everyone who sent in questions. My best wishes to you in the Holiday season.

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