Washingtonpost.com: Live Online

America At War:
U.S. Strikes Afghanistan
With James Adams
Senior Fellow, Center for Strategic and International Studies
Thursday, Oct. 11, 2001; 2 p.m. EDT

U.S. and British forces began a series of strikes in Afghanistan targeting al Qaeda training centers and the country's ruling Taliban on Sunday, Oct. 7. President Bush described the strikes as a "sustained, comprehensive and relentless" campaign against terrorism and has described the initial round of attacks as successful.

James Adams, an expert on military response and senior fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, was online Thursday, Oct. 11, at 2 p.m. EDT to discuss the U.S. retaliation and the ongoing situation in Afghanistan and the Middle East.

A transcript follows.

Editor's Note: Washingtonpost.com moderators retain editorial control over Live Online discussions and choose the most relevant questions for guests and hosts; guests and hosts can decline to answer questions.

James Adams: This is the very easy part of a war that will probably last for the next 20 or 30 years. Our intention right now is to render both the Taliban and the UBL deaf and blind which has been achieved. That has two effects: we can fly heliborne troops around the area with less risk and thus less risk to American forces. The s3econd effect is to drive the UBL above ground where we will have a greater opportunity to find and capture or kill them.
Once that is achieved - or partially achieved - we will enter the lonmger and more difficult phase which will involve a long term plan that will undercut the rationales for the UBL's existence. That will be difficult and complicated and require America to operate against type: long term and consistent execution with few quick fixes. This will be a very big challenge.

State College, Pa.: Mr. Adams, this is not the most technical question, but is something that I've wondered about. When they bring new pilots over to a place like Afghanistan, how many days are the pilots given to get used to the time change? Sometimes the media makes it seem like the pilot is immediately put to work, which just doesn't seem safe to me. Thanks.

James Adams: The pilot is indeed immediately put to work. It's a very high stress environment but then that is what they asre trained for.

Vienna, Va.: Since you apparently are an "expert" on military responses, can you tell us ... Why all of the hoopla and doomsday stuff about how hard it is going to be to "flush" these guys out of their caves and hiding places? Seems to me all we have to do is warn these guys that if they don't surrender and come out ASAP, a couple of bombs or other explosive charges will collapse and seal of the front of each cave permanently. I don't think that even the jihad fanatics would relish the prospect of a dark, slow, painful death from hunger, suffocation, or thirst. Give them a choice and they will come out in a heartbeat, maybe even bin Laden. If they take the option of shooting themelves and committing suicide, then that is just one less problem for us. I hope that this is what Bush, Cheney, Rice, and Powell have in mind.

James Adams: I wish ti were so easy. We've now pretty much bombed all the caves that they use on a regular basis but most if not all of the terrorists were long gone before we got there. So, the question now is where have they gone to? The answer is that some have gone overseas (they started leaving immediately after Sept 11) and the remainder will have buried themselves amonbg the local poipulation. We hope to find them because they will have to communicate with each other and if they do, we should hear it and then the special ops guys will have a chance to get them.

San Francisco, Calif.: Hi Mr. Adams,

The President has stated that he wants Osama bin laden dead or alive. My question is, how will we truly know if we actually capture him? Do we have his fingerprint or DNA records? Let's face it, he's a very intelligent person, and I wouldn't be surprised if he tries to fake death or substitute someone else in his place.

James Adams: A tough question. We don't have his DNA but we do have his voice which is as good as a fingerprint. There is some concern that he, like Saddam Hussein, might have some doubles out there. If we capture him, we'll know it's him. If we kill him, we hope that the reaction of his followers will tell us we've got the right guy.

Brussels, Belgium: Sir,

Did we learn our lessons when we realized that the allies needed performane bombs that could penetrate bunkers in the war against Iraq ?

Are these bombs in use today to demolish mountains where bin Laden is hiding?

James Adams: We learned that we needed more powerful and more accurate bombs and those have now been developed and are being used.

Washington, D.C.: Can you imagine the U.S. participating in an assassination of such figures as Saddam Hussein, and then not taking responsibility? Perhaps even feigning surprise at his death? It would be suggested that the perpetrators were anti-Saddam Iraqis, not us, thus stifling anti-American complaints in the Arab world. Of course, the typical conspiracy delusionists over there would see an Israeli hand in it.

James Adams: I can imagine it but it's not very likely because it's against the law. You have to remember that intelligence agencies are really huge bureaucracies so if an order for a kill is given, someone has to write the memo, someone has to sign it, the lawyers have to sign off etc. It's all incredibly cumbersome and actually prevents much of the cowboy stuff that used to happen back in the 60s and 70s.

Washington, D.C.: So do you think bin Laden's left Afghanistan?

James Adams: Not yet. I think he would see that as a defeat and it would send a bad signal to his followers. That said, our knowledge of his whereabouts is very imprecise. Normally, he and his people use aircraft and that would be very hard to do right now, especially as there are no airworthy aircraft left in Afghanistan.

Orono, Maine: If bin Laden makes good on his threats of more terrorist attacks, is the U.S. likely to ratchet up the level of force? Can you conceive of a scenario in which we would employ tactical nuclear weapons as part of this conflict? Would another major terrorist attack on U.S. soil put those weapons on the table as a serious option?

James Adams: Tere is very clear intelligence that more attacks are likjely and it is expected that they will cause more damage than the Sept 11 attacks because his pattern is to consistently raise the level of violence. A nuclear release is not really a practical response in this case. Who do we bomb? Afghanistan? There's nothing left to bomb and it would not be a proportionate response under the circumstances. The escalation is going to be a big problem for the administration as people will demand action and basically what they are seeing now is what we can do going forward. It's going to be a long war with no clear victory at the end (a surrender).

Baltimore, Md.: The Russian armed forces fought the Afghans for 10 years and failed to win that war. (I know that we and other nations were arming and providing intelligence support to the Afghans). Assuming the Russians had basically the same type of special forces as we do, a good air force, and over 100K combat troops in the area, why would our forces be any more effective so as to enable us to defeat the Taliban? Were the Russian forces that ineffective that such a poorly equipped, poorly organized force composed of tribal groups were able to defeat them? What advantages do our armed forces have that will make a difference this time?

James Adams: In my view, the single biggest mistake the Russians made was to occupy the country. That united tribes who normally hate each other under one banner. We have no intention of making the same mistake. We have better intelligence, training and equipment than the Soviets and will only do search and destroy missions (quick in and out). That said, we began the war in Vietnam with those tqaqctics and then the conventional military soon took over and we lost. So, it will be very important to prevent mission creep.

Arlington, Va.: The networks pretty much have agreed, after having been requested by the White House, to not air any more video/audio speeches from bin Laden. There was talk about secret messages possibly being contained in his speeches. Is this happening?

James Adams: Not that we know of but it would certainly be a logical way for him to communicate. A more likely scenario is that the cells were given the Go order some months ago with four cells doing the Sept 11 attacks and others ordered to do certain thingsa when wse respond. That means the cells are already out there with a clear plan to execute against. Incidentally, the networks agreed to edit what Bin Laden says, not to not broacast it at all.

Lexington, Ky.: Mr. Adams, is it more likely or less likely that others will see our reactions as an indicator that terrorism works? By this I mean, after all our attempts at security are in place, aren't some elements going to be tempted to test them?

James Adams: Terrorism always works because the terrorist can decide the how, when, where and with what and we are always playing catch up. That said, the fact is that terrorism is a largely unsuccessful method of waging war. What happened to the Baader Meinhof, Red Brigades, Shining Path, Japanese Red Army etc.? All gone. Does this mean that our defense will be good enough? No. But they will eventually be good enough so that ordinary people can go about lives without fear and so terrorism will be controlled and marginalized.

San Francisco, Calif.: Why is the ban on assassination of heads of state sometimes mentioned as a stumbling block in our past efforts to go after bin Laden? He is not a head of state, so the ban should not apply, but articles on getting bin Laden still mention this ban.

James Adams: It's a ban on assassination generally, not just heads of state. Aside from the moral issues, assassination is not a very effective tool - look at the Israelis and how they have failed completely to control the threat.

Alexandria, Va.: Everyone says it's going to be a long war. Does that mean ground troops will be put in there and possibly other places? Is this an on-foot type war? Will the bombing then stop?

James Adams: The bombing is nearly at an end. There will be intermittent use of aircraft from now on. Therre is no intention to invade Afghanistan and it's not an on-foot kind of war where you take and hold ground. We have no need to do that given the target set. It will be a long war because we face a very determined, sophisticated and well trained adversary with some 10,000 members spread in at least 60 countries. It's going to be very hard to contain that number of people - even identifying them is a real challenge. What makes it a long war is that it is not simply a matter of killing or arresting the bad guys. Instead, we have to prefent the UBL and their friends from recruiting more people, gaining additional credibility and so on. That means we have to undercut the reasons for the UBL's existence and success. That in turn means we must find root causes and address them which will take time.

Lexington, Ky.: Mr Adams, a follow-up, please:

Current mindset seems to be that there will be an "end" to this conflict. How can this be the case, when the original intent seems to be to get the U.S.A. to consider more carefully the options when interacting on the international stage. I believe we will never be so self-assured again ...

Thanks for participating.

James Adams: I don't think there will be an "end" as we traidtionally understand tghe term. There will be periods of great violence like now and then periods of comparitive peace while both sides regroup. What the British learned in fighting the IRA is that first you have to close off the safe haven, then you have to have an effective intelligence and counter-terrorist structure and then you tackle all the reasons for the IRA's support in the community (discrimination in housing, jobs, police etc.). It took 30 years of increasing marginalization fvor the IRA to come to peace talks and still the violence hasn't ended. We could be facing something similar here.

Washington, D.C.: What are our special operations military people doing right now? How many are there?

James Adams: They are getting in place in various countries and doing the work ups prior to going into action. A limited number of SOF have been in country for some time doing the necessary reconnaisance to identify targets. I can't give you the numbers but you're looking at over 5,000.

Mt. Lebanon, Pa.: Do your military response scenarios for fighting in rugged terrain include low yield thermonuclear bomblets or is it mainly concerned with our forces spending the next 10 years in Afghanistan fly swatting? In other words does the computer get to use the full strategic arsenal or is it made to fight with one cyberarm behind its back? Thanks much.

James Adams: It's going to be a pretty big fly swatter and there won't be many flies left in Afghanistan by the time we've finished. There are no plans to use any kind of nuclear device and I can't imagine why that would make military sense as therre would inevitably be thousands of innocent civilians killed in the fallout. Remember too, that Afghanistan is only the first target. There are memebers of the UBL in Sudan, Somalia, Indonesia etc. and all those will have to either stop doing what they are doing or suffer the consequences.

Houston, Tex.: How is it that the U.S. government/military allowed these terrorist atacks to occur? In my opinion, the first and foremost reponsibility of our government is to ensure the safety of its people. As a military expert, how do you think this happened?

James Adams: A complicated question. Therre are three main ways we can gather information in advance about a terrorist attack: overhead. communications intercepts and HUMINT. We've done very well in the past few years in preventing a large number of attacks by the UBL, most of which have never been publicly spoken about. But, the UBL have learned from those successes and now they give us very little opportunity to listen to what they are doing and planning or even to see what they do in their training camps. That leaves HUMINT and I'm afraid we've done a lousy job in that area and so there was no warning. Can we do better? Certainly. But will we? Well, our record in this srea is not good. The American answer is to look for a quick and preferably technological solution while gather good HUMINT takes years and a good recruit may not start delivering really high value intelligence for 10 or 15 years. People like the British and the French are much better at this end of the intel business. Perhaps we'll learn from this bnig mistake but I'm doubtful.

Somewhere, USA: You say there are some 10,000 bin Laden followers in 60 countries. That seems like it would almost be an impossible task to trace them all and stop them. Might the war be extended beyong Afghanistan?

James Adams: We know that some of the UBL have fled to countries like Yemen and Somalia. That is why the effort against Afghanistan is so important. The intent is not just to attack the UBL and to punish the Taliban but to show every other country that harbors these terrorists just what they can expect. So, when we go calling on the Somali government and assk them to stop harboring terrists, they will no the consequence if they refuse. I can certainly see that the war will extend beyond Afghanistan but whether it involves attacks like we've just seen will depend on the reaction of other governments which are currently playing host to the terrorists.

Virginia: Did you wrote a book, the Financing of Terror, which mentioned that Saudi Arabia gave millions of petrodollars to the PLO since 1970s?

James Adams: I did. Good memory. And yes a lot of petro-dollars went to the PLO partly as a payoff and partly to support the cause.

Virginia: There is nothing in EO 12,333 that killing a military head of state is illegal. A civilian head of state is not OK. But bin Laden is not a head of state.

James Adams: There is a general ban on assassination, head of state or otherwise. If that were not the case, we would have killed bin Laden and a bunch of other people some time ago.

Washington, D.C.: What's HUMINT?

James Adams: HUMan INTelligence or the recruiting of agents who will spy on our behalf.

Bethesda, Md.: Do you think the anthrax cases here in the U.S. are related to terrorism?

James Adams: Tough call. Looks like it to me. A dry run perhaps? I don't really believe in coincidences like this. We believe that the UBL have anthrax, we think they intend to use it against us and then this turns up. Aned there hasn't been a single case of anthrax in the US for God knows how long. Too much of a coincidence for me.

Washington, D.C.: Mr. Adams,

How will these large-scale economic/trade initiatives (e.g. NAFTA or WTO status) reckon with security issues in the future? Hasn't the opening of borders in the name of commerce contributed to the terrorist's accessibility to our national and private infrastructures?

James Adams: Absoloutely and that is only going to get worse. It fits into the generally category of the consequences of globalization which includes the opening of borders, the decline of influence of the nation state, the increasing ability of individuals to communicate securely. All big and new challenges and we're currently weay behind the curve.

Washington, D.C.: Have you got any signs or marks for links between the al Qaeda network and Greek leftist terrorist organization 17 November? It is very likely if terrorists escape to a European country, this country is Greece, where the authorities have learned how to hide and protect terrorists, since 1981 when the Socialist Party became powerful.

James Adams: As far as I know, there are no direct connections between the UBL and Nov.17 although, as you know, they have common supporters in countries like Libya.

Lubbock, Tex.: Hello Mr. Adams. Why don't we go after the poppy fields if it is going to be a 30-year war?

James Adams: Well, we have been going after them in recent years by paying the Taliban millions of doillars to eradicate the fields. One of the difficulties is that our new found best friends in the Northern Alliance pay for their weapons with opium and are basically a bunch of hoods. In any event, poppy cultivation is a huge cash crop in Afghanistan, one of the poorest countries in the world. So bombing the fields will simply produce thousands of starving Afghans which is not really what we want to see on CNN. So, a longer term strategy of eradication is what's needed.

Washington, D.C.: What, in your opinion, is the most likely form that a chemical or biological attack would take in the United States, taking into account which substances are easiest to acquire, transport, and release?

James Adams: If it were me, I'd release a small amount of anthrax into the air on a West Coast city where the prevailing winds would carry it inland. I'd leave clear evidence of how I had dispersed the BW ( a box, canister, whatever). Then, a couple of weeks later I'd leave identical distribution devices in several other US cities but they would all be blanks. Then I'd switch and do another real one using some kind of different container. And so on. Chaos and terror, exactly what I want to achieve.

Washington, D.C.: What is your opinion of the war coverage? Television, radio, newspapers, Internet.

James Adams: It's been pretty good. I'm not sure that I would be too happy if I were the Taliban because they seem to have been much less sophisticatedc than Saddam Hussein (where are the pictures of dead babies). But the coverage has been prtetty sober, responsible and from what I know of the classified stuff, pretty accurate.

Washington, D.C.: Do you think we can ever expect a peaceful Middle East to arise without some sort of broad, fundamental change to the methods of governance in the region? Without some viable and sustainable outlet of political expression for the masses in these countries (such as democratic institutions), it seems to me that religion will continue to serve as the only political tool of the disgruntled -- a dangerous and disturbing thought, considering where we are now. Your thoughts?

James Adams: I think that's dead right, especially so as the numbers of unemployed young people are rising at alarming rates. Not only do millions of people have no real future to look forward to but they have no way of affecting change. Therein lies revolution.

Washington, D.C.: How helpful is the Northern Alliance to us?

James Adams: They were one of many groups that helped us in the fight against the Soviets. Today, they are small, corrupt, demoralised, poorly led and have no general support among the Afghan population. Also, for the past few years, they have been almost entirely armed and supported by the Russians so the Afghan people will suspect that support for them will also mean support for Russia. So, I think we have to look elsewhere for a credible new government in Afghanistan.

washingtonpost.com:

That wraps up today's show. Thanks to everyone who joined the discussion.

Stay tuned to Live Online:

"The Art and Power of Being a Lady" at 3 p.m. EDT
Larry Sabato on Virginia Politics at 3 p.m. EDT
Live Online Special Coverage: America At War

Did you know that you can follow more than one Live Online discussion at the same time? Just open another browser window and toggle back and forth between discussions! And, if you miss one, catch up with the Live Online transcripts.

Keep up with the latest in news, sports, politics and entertainment with washingtonpost.com e-mail newsletters.

NEW! Personalize your Post with mywashingtonpost.com. Get customized news, traffic, weather and more.