The Next Frontiers: Technology

The quest for an easy-to-use, do-it-all computer that goes anywhere has been a focus of the computer industry for 30 years. Now, Bill Gates thinks he's found the answer in his new tablet computer. Is he right? What else is on the computing horizon? Steven Levy joined us for a Live Talk to discuss these and other technology issues on Wednesday, April 25.

New: During Live Talks, you can chat with the other audience members in MSNBC's News Chat.


A New Brand of Tech Cities
Steven Levy

Steven Levy was named a senior editor in September 1996, having joined the magazine in January 1995 as a contributing editor and columnist. He writes major feature stories for Newsweek's Science & Technology section, as well as a regular column, "Random Access," which appears in the monthly feature "Focus On Technology." Levy covers such wide-ranging topics as Internet censorship and the Microsoft anti-trust case, and helps chart the magazine's overall coverage of the world of cyberspace.



Steven Levy: Hi, everyone, and thanks for dropping in. I wrote about the Microsoft Tablet PC this week, which is an interesting device both as a indicator of where computers are going and where Microsoft wants to go. But I'll answer questions about anything you'd like to ask in the tech realm. But no computer/software support questions please. That's what toll-free numbers are for!


Nashua, NH: Will the nation's obsessive interest in personal computing, hand held device etc. fade as the economy crashes?

Steven Levy: I don't know if I'd characterize the interest as "obsessive," but there has been a focus on computers themselves as opposed to seeing them simply as tools. But that tendency is fading, as computers get woven more deeply into our lives. Basically, I think that the revolution is still in the early stages and we're going to see more powerful machines and do more things with them. The economy really doesn't affect this trajectory. Stock prices aside, science and tech moves on.


Seattle, WA: Can you give me the guidelines on how to become a sucessful Tycoon in the future?

Steven Levy: Work hard at school. Study hard, too. Win six consectutive NBA championships or pull off a PGA Grand Slam. Barring that, start the next Microsoft.

Simple, huh?


Kansas City, MO: Which is better: Pocket PC or Palm OS?

Steven Levy: Gee, "better" is such an absolute term. Let me put it this way. There are a lot of really loaded Pocket PC devices, but I still like the simpler Palm OS ones better. I guess if your primary use of a palm-top is reading books on that little screen, you might put a Journada or something like that on the top of your shopping list.


Staten Island, NY: Do you think people will use the Tablet?

Steven Levy: This is a very tough question to answer because we won't really know for a while whether Microsoft has really cracked the tough problem of allowing smooth input without a keyboard. One of the designers, Chuck Thacker, told me that he used the prototype for a month without plugging in a keyboard -- but the real test will come as thousands of users try to get the Tablet to recognize their handwriting or their voices, at least enough for simple notes and tasks.

As a journalist,though,I really hope that there's software to enable me to tape interviews and synch my notes to them -- and then get a reasonable transcript. (I'm not looking for perfection,mind you.) They deliver that and I'm in.


Boston, MA: What would you study if you were in business school right now? What are the hottest areas for venture capital?

Steven Levy: If I were in business school, I would study some of the more traditional subjects, like classic means of analyzing financials and how supply chains work. The new stuff is so seat of the pants that you can pick that up as you go -- if indeed it's still around when you graduate.

VC is looking at biotech now,I hear.


New York, NY: Have you heard about "theitquestion.com" and and all the buzz about this mysterious invention? Do you have any idea what "it" is--if "it" is anything at all?

Steven Levy: I thought it was decided that IT (or Ginger) was inventor Dean Kamen's new scooter device powered by some ultra efficient motor. The lesson we can draw from this is that hype still lives -- even it it's the coolest product since the Razor Scooter (knockoffs of which now seem to be going begging as parents get scared of broken arms, etc), the expectations are so high that reality is bound to dissapoint.


Chicago, IL: How will DSL fit into the future of technology?

Steven Levy: If the Baby Bells got their act together and figured out how to install it efficiently, DSL would have a nice future. As of now, it's part of a muddied broadband present. Making things worse are all these companies that provided DSL and now have run out of money,leaving customers up a narrowband creek.

Me, I've got a cable modem.


Hohokus, NJ: Do you think there will ever be one device that will be the catch all piece of equipment as in e-mail, blue tooth, TV, cell phone, book reader, etc.?

Steven Levy: I don't think so. How could something big enough to read a book on work as your cell phone? I do think that the Holy Grail in this sense is breaking up the pieces so they all work with each other (maybe Bluetooth--a technology to connect things together -- will help here. That way your LCD screen might talk to some sort of all-purpose connection box that you wear -- and be your reader, computer monitor, etc.


Marion, IA: Has voice recognition technology advanced to the point where it makes sense? My attempts to use it have been too cumbersome or I've been too impatient.

Steven Levy: Ever since I've been writing about technology speech recogition has been five years away. But it is getting better, largely as a result of more powerful computers. I think that in the next couple of years (maybe less than five!) we'll be able to refine it further with better means of understanding the context of words. But don't expect perfection soon -- the goal is good enough to quell your complaints.


Amarillo, TX: When are we going to get retina scanning technology at ATMs in this country? I've been reading about it for years, but I haven't seen any progress.

Steven Levy: Do you really want theives to steal your eyeballs so they can get cash from your cards?

Just kidding. We'll get biometric devices like retina scans and fingerprint readers precisely at the moment when banks decide that plain old ATM codes are losing them money or customers. I don't see a big push for that now.


Tempe, AZ: What's the future of Napster and the MP3 format? It's hard to see how it will go away, no matter what the record companies want.

Steven Levy: It seems that Microsoft wants MP3 to go away, with people using its own technology instead. But I think that it hasn't yet peaked. In other words, we have a real donnybrook on our hands. If MP3 truly pops into a huge consumer category, you'd think that even the record companies would figure out how to live with it -- and make big bucks with it.


Maputo, Mozambique: For some time now, many have been arguing that technology will reduce human contact and by extension increase the risks of men feeling lonely and insecure. Do you think that is the case?

Steven Levy: Right now you are having contact with me (human contact, no less). How could we have done this without technology. True, it's not the same of having a good old face to face over coffee, and I'm no less lonely or insecure, but using this doesn't discourage me to actually venture out into the world. If someone stays locked up and uses a tool to try to replace "real" contact, don't blame the tool.


Ellicott City, MD: Would you be able to play CD rom style games on the PC Tablet?

Steven Levy: Sure. Just download the software into the machine (it's got a big hard disk) and go. I guess you have have Tablets with CDs in it,too, if you want to trade off the extra weight. the only other problem would have having to plug in a joystick. But I expect a lot of crossword puzzle type games.


Miami, FL: I notice Miami, Florida is not included in your 10-HighTech Cities. With the 5th TIER-1 Network Access Point "NAP" being build in downtown Miami and the Internet Coast located in the Southeast Florida, wouldn't this be consider one of the top 10? The Southeast of the United States is the connection point South of the Americas to the world.

Steven Levy: Adam Rogers,who wrote the Tech Cities piece, is now explaining to the world what I did when we first did a Tech Cities package a couple of year ago: it's not the TOP ten, it's simply a significant group of cities. So just because Miami, or Anchorage, or whereever isn't included doesn't mean that we're dissing you. Hey, I like Miami. (Not sure if Adam does, though.)


Burlington, VT: When will hand held devices offer decent keyboards? It seems like they're fairly useless items until they invent one that's easier to put information in. I read once about a role-out fabric keyboard, but haven't heard anything since. Do you know what the story is?

Steven Levy: There are decent folding keyboards that fold into something the size of a palm-top. But basically, the whole idea of having a keyboard for a hand held is flawed. Say this out loud: hand-held. Sort of doesn't leave room for a keyboard, does it?

More reason for good voice recognition, though.


Medford, MA: How important is Microsoft's new development platform .NET? How will it fare against the competition from SUN, etc?

Steven Levy: Microsoft considers .NET the center of its strategy for this century. It's a means by which the company feels it can be just as important on tomorrow's Internet as it is on today's desktop. There's going to be huge competition with Sun, Oracle, and AOL TimeWarner. But none of these companies is throwing resources at a Whole Enchilada solution like Microsoft is.


Eagan, MN: With the advent of even wider bandwith to the internet, Why is a software guy like gates dabbling in the world of hardware? Seems to me faster connections means less processing power and data storage needed in portable computing. Just think of an ordinary touch tone phone--most of the realy cool stuff is done at the switching office.

Steven Levy: Good question. As stated before, the main initiative at Microsoft is indeed Internet software. But to maintain its PC base, Microsoft cares deeply about not seeing computers evolve so that they no longer are Windows devices. Solution: try to make sure that the next big thing in computers is a Windows machine.


Emeryville, CA: Hey Steven, I noticed your MS Tablet story mentioned "supposedly advanced handwriting recognition." Why the disclaimer? How much of the tablet is working at this point?

Steven Levy: The disclaimer comes because it's yet to be road tested. Certainly not on my road. The tablet is well along, and is now undergoing the first serious user tests, but Microsoft let me know that it's reasonable to expect lots of tweaks and maybe more before its 2002 launch.


Paramus, NJ: Re Gates's Tablet computer: I'm not sure I really see the benefit. Why wait a year when I can get just as good a laptop from Sony or Toshiba right now for less money? And how good is the writing-recognition software?

Steven Levy: I do think that there is a significant benefit to the Tablet form factor. There are simply too many places in the world where you want your laptop computer but it's not appropriate or easy to use. Like a meeting, where using a laptop means your head is down and you're noisily clicking away. Or your sofa, while watching TV. If MS can pull off a great Tablet device, good for them.

And Sony and Toshiba will be selling Tablet PCs. Want one for less money? Wait until they're on the market for a few years.


Gombak, Selangor: Computer monitors are just so bulky. I think one day we'll have holograms instead like that in Star Trek.

Steven Levy: A few years ago people seemed to be bigger on holograms that they are now. I think that a great big flat panel is just fine, if they can get the cost down. Do you really want to have the cat run through your spreadsheet?


Hollywood, FL: What are the best new tech products you see on the horizon?

Steven Levy: We're getting closer to a good combo of cell phone and organizer. But I think that in the near term there's a lot of great digital audio products coming, stuff that takes your PC tasks (downloading, burning,ripping) and moving them to the living room.


Elmhurst, NY: I read recently that eventually most of us will access the internet using set-tops. Do you think this an accurate prediction?

Steven Levy: I think that eventually most of us will access the internet with just about everything: settops,laptops, palmtops, phones, ovens, radios, electric guitars, dishwashers, and heart monitors. Just don't ask me when.


New York, NY: What about the "wearable computing" movement--and the advent of devices that become integrated into the human body. Cell phone ear pieces are an early example--is there anything coming out in this arena? Do you think we'll all eventually turn into robotrons, with implanted microchips, etc.?

Steven Levy: I think that medical devices will start this ball rolling, but eventually we will see other sorts of cyborg items coming into play. It's really not much weirder than body piercing. I just hope that I can upgrade without voiding the warranty.


Msnbc Chat Room : Apple held on to their "Newton" division. They had the best handwriting recognition and Apple has proven it's ability to innovate. Do you think they'll have a tablet?

Steven Levy: By "holding on," I take it you mean that they didn't sell it off. Certainly there's been no Newtons around for quite a while and as far as I know there's not a single Newton employee at Apple. On the other hand, I think that Steve Jobs would be nuts not to try to get in on this. Certainly he is a frontrunner for the coolest device. Unfortunately, Apple long ago abandoned its voice recognition research group (its leader is now the Interface czar at Microsoft).


New York, NY: When will we be able to use cell phones and wireless devices on the subway? I could get so much more done if I could make calls during my commute...

Steven Levy: Just don't sit next to me on the N train while you do it.


Msnbc Chat Room : Do you see this tablet as the first real alternative to the keyboard?

Steven Levy: Well, the pitch is that it will provide the best yet keyboard-free input. You've identified the biggest hurdle to the Tablet's acceptance. Not even the Microsoft people know for sure if they've crossed the magic line where consumers are happy with what they can do without keyboards.


Youngstown, OH : Here in the Mahoning County, there has been a 28.6 million grant from Congress for a convention center. Youngstown, Ohio is the 13th most segregated city in the U.S. and the digital divide is just as great. Why is so much more money allocated for entertainment here than education in technology?

Steven Levy: I've read recently where convention centers are a money loser, but they're highly visible and the sorts of things that politicians like to take credit for. That said, I'm not sure that simply throwing money at the "digital divide" is the answer. I think that we should do all we can to educate our kids on basics like reading, math,and logical thought. Computers aren't really basic skills, and as they come down in price, they become more accessible.


Charlottesville, VA: Do you think DVD will fully replace video? (i.e. will it be hard to get a video at Block Buster in a few years, so I might as well buy a DVD player now?)

Steven Levy: If you're happy without a DVD player, keep renting VCR tapes. Eventually people will download videos anyway. And certainly the DVD player you buy a year from now will be cheaper and the selection better.

If you're a performance nut, you have a DVD already.


Steven Levy: Thanks a lot for your questions, this was fun as usual. Be sure to keep checking Newsweek and our web site to catch up on future tech news and features. Bye!


   |       |